CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 4 - FULL DAY PREVIEW

TRIUMPH HURDLE

I’m happy to accept SOLO deserves to be jolly off the back of that Adonis win. He was a bit keen himself so off a fast lead he’ll be better I’d think and that race will have left little to no mark as was the manner in which he won. Took the prelims in his stride so looks well rounded. GOSHEN is a horse I just can’t seem to get excited about him regardless of how many times he wins. Can’t argue with the manner in which he’s been improving though but jumping leaves plenty to be desired

ALLMANKIND is a head-strong horse but having seen him at home he’s the polar opposite. Despite the trends I like the fact that he’s been kept fresh for this (play to his strength) and I still watch his Chepstow effort back and can’t believe where he found the last two furlongs worth of second wind from. Course winner too despite it coming on the old course. Not sure ASPIRE TOWER was winning when he fell the last day but no doubt he’s a nice horse, another with his quirks and leads the Irish challenge and should be well suited to running off a lead

A WAVE OF THE SEA  looks a bit of a fiddly ride (tried in cheekpieces once) and vibes are that he’s not quite Triumph standard but weight now ruined for Boodles. That said, he won the Spring Juvenile and this race looks open enough despite looking a potentially very classy renewal. BURNING VICTORY won a Grade 3 for Willie Mullins at the weekend. Beat a 40/1 poke but he was an 80’s horse on the flat making his hurdle bow too. Not a great deal to work with but she looks interesting at least although her price is drying up

SIR PSYCHO definitely deserves a mention as he should enjoy this race and is a 147 rated horse already. The name lends a clue though and just three runs back he was beaten in a Handicap off 117.

Selection - SOLO

Lively Outsider - BURNING VICTORY

COUNTY HURDLE

I'll start this one off with one I give a chance to at a price, YOU RAISED ME UP who appears to be in here off a workable mark. He ran well at Leopardstown without the hood, which remains off here, so I think he'll be on the premises again. ADJALI has been working the house down apparently and he's always threatened to be an above average horse so fresh from a wind op he's on the shortlist. THATSY is a very nice type and you don't have to go back far to see solid form in maiden hurdles. Two quiet enough runs in handicaps since mean his mark of 139 could under estimate him.

CIEL DU NEIGE looked a nice one to follow for the season and was in my 20 horses to follow. Ticks a few boxes for this race and arguably was a bit unfortunate in second in the Betfair Hurdle when race tactics didn't suit. Willie Mullins runs a few but BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP keeps being supported and letting those supporters down so could upset a few if he comes in. ARAMON has been OK this season but is another who looks potentially well treated. SAINT ROI has expressed mixed vibes and doesn't have a great deal of experience but I think he's off a dangerous weight here. 

Selection - THATSY

Lively Outsider - YOU RAISED ME UP

ALBERT BARTLETT

A race I do alright in over the years but more so than some races at The Festival it does feel much easier to leave this race as late as possible. Even last year RHINESTONE was kicking on in the parade ring. 

As it stands I think THYME HILL screams out as the class horse of the race but how often do we see the class horse beat!? Suppose we might be due one. MONKFISH looks worth his place in the market, LATEST EXHIBITION was one of two put up by against ANDY DUFRESNE when beat him and at that point he was 50/1 for this race. Further he goes the better and his latest win is the strongest form for me coming into this. HARRY SENIOR I didn’t think wanted a trip but he clearly does after that Trials day win and given he’s quick at 2m (which is a trait I look for in this race) I think he’s got a huge chance. RAMSES doesn’t do it for me, he was weighted to win round here over hurdles earlier in the season. FURY ROAD was maybe exposed as not top Grade the last day, but ground might have been quick enough for him (I know all bumper form on similar ground) but it’s important to remember he was sent off fav and he was one of my long range punts for this race

JANIDIL was a bigger price when I first started to mention him but the reason he is interesting is his form is all at 2m and Willie Mullins mentioned he would like him to go here but will have to see how JP wants to play out his handicappers. I like speed in an Albert Bartlett type and I think he's got a chance. KILTEALY BRIGGS at a wild price shouldn’t be discounted in a bigger field and he’s one with pace and stamina to my eye, another who is a big shorter but still around 33/1 is THE CASHEL MAN. Not beaten far by THYME HILL in the Challow so price looks wrong

Selection - JANIDIL

Lively Outsiders - THE CASHEL MAN & KILTEALY BRIGGS

GOLD CUP

Wide open race again but it’s not for lack of quality. AL BOUM PHOTO could easily win this again. I thought he was good on his comeback run and that form has been franked since. Could well be a very different race this year in terms of tactics so he’ll have to prove himself on that front if something does go off a good gallop. SANTINI has always looked a Gold Cup horse so no surprise to see him short off the back of that Cotswold Chase win. DELTA WORK was big last season so I’d be keen to see how he looks now but solid form the last two runs. LOSTINTRANSLATION probably would prefer it on the best side of soft so keep an eye on that and the Tizzards haven't been in any sort of form so far this week. 

CLAN DES OBEAUX was so good in King George again but a few under performed so I can’t trust it although I wouldn’t be too worried about him round here despite having recorded lower ratings at the track. PRESENTING PERCY was FAV last year and has actually had prep runs so I expect him to be supported. MONALEE would ruin me if he was capable of winning a Gold Cup having said for his whole career he barely wants 3m. REAL STEEL has proven to date he's better right handed. Hard to forgive that, but I think his form warrants him to be of slight interest at a huge price although I appreciate this is a Gold Cup

Selection - AL BOUM PHOTO
Lively Outsider - REAL STEEL

FOXHUNTERS

The head of the market looks to be about right and it's going to be an exciting race. I think MINELLA ROCCO, BILLAWAY & STAKER WALLACE could have the race between them. It doesn't always play out that class wins this but MINELLA ROCCO has top notch festival form including a 4 miler victory and a Gold Cup second and it wasn't long ago he was head of the weights for the National so deserves to go off fav. DYLROW is interesting a big price given he beat BILLAWAY in a point but that was over shorter so the trip is a concern

Selection - MINELLA ROCCO
Lively Outsider - DYLROW

GRAND ANNUAL

Like the previous race you can see why the front of the market has formed like it has and of the single digit runners I favour CHOSEN MATE. He won nicely the last day and I think there's a good bit more to come. LISP was put up a long time ago by Jamie Wrenn so we're still hoping for a good run while GRAENETEEN has been well touted for this race but I don't think he deserves to be this short (Got that wrong with SIMPLY THE BETTS didn't I!)

US AND THEM needs to put some seriously poor runs behind him, but with support he reeks of a plot while TWO TAFFS surely wants further but if that's been the issue all along then he's potentially thrown in back at 2m. JAN MAAT is a horse who has been kept back for this I think and he could be a handicap blot off 142 BUT he probably wanted the ground to be quicker

Selection - CHOSEN MATE
Lively Outsider - JAN MAAT

MARTIN PIPE

Another race where longer range plans have been slightly predictable so both COLUMN OF FIRE & FRONT VIEW are now plenty short enough. Again I appreciate the on the day punters so I must add they both have chances for sure. FIVE O'CLOCK could have run creditably in the Ballymore albeit way off the winner so here off 145 looks a very attractive mark and while FRONT VIEW heads the market, this lad beat him well. That said, FRONT VIEW was happy to be short of room and wasn't given a hard time. ESCARIA TEN gets in after Elliott pulled one out so that could be a tip in itself while if the ground does dry up for this race then INDEFATIGABLE'S price at 40/1 will look huge, given she was beaten by DAME DE COMPAGNIE who has come out and won this week herself.

Selection - FIVE O'CLOCK
Lively Outsider - INDEFATABLE

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 3 - QUICK WRITE UPS

MARSH CHASE

ITCHY FEET was impressive over fences at Leicester and Sandown but the real eye-catching thing was how he pecked a bit two out then got himself straight back on the bridle. We know he likes it here, we know he handles give underfoot so he looks to be the most likely winner and the line through MIDNIGHT SHADOW (albeit a loose one) is interesting should now CHAMP has won the RSA. MIDNIGHT SHADOW himself is capable of running a big race although this looks very deep.

I wasn’t even sure FAUGHEEN would travel over but he deserves a chance and my word would it be some spectacle to see him leading up the hill one more time. 3 from 3 over fences and no doubt the best horse of any of these on his day, has the beating of SAMCRO so regardless of EASY GAME’S run yesterday over a longer trip, surely he has to be considered

MISTER FISHER struck me last term that there might be an issue with him and the Spring. Won his Kempton bumper then was well beaten at Aintree. Second first first over hurdles up to January then 8^th in Supreme and well beaten fav at Haydock in May. This season he’s gone second first first again including winning round here, but the level of that win (Beating GOODBOY BOBBY getting 5lbs) isn’t Festival winning standard but a chance he was one of a few last year for Seven Barrows who didn’t handle the Flu Vaccine like EPATANTE

How can you possibly work out how good or how bad SAMCRO is? I’m happy to keep it short, he’s clearly capable of mixing it in this company, he’s a dual Grade 1 winner, but so often he’s underwhelmed and he sounds like he’s hard to diagnose at home so if they can’t really strike the light with him, it’d be hard for me to provide a noteworthy case. That said, I reckon a few antepost slips have snuck through on him and he’s another where I suspect the scenes would be immense if he landed this

Willie Mullins has done well in this race and is throwing plenty of darts. I’ve always liked TORNADO FLYER and there is no way we’ve seen his limit so I’d give him an outside chance. BAPUAME will be better at this trip and has run well here in the past while MELON has £300k in earnings but only around 10% that is from winnings. Does like it round here but dangerously similar to a MIN where he runs well but just doesn’t seem to win here. I like him though, don’t think this is his trip (looked to be well covered when falling 3 out at Aintree) but Willie knows better than me and festival form is a huge interest to me

Not even sure it’s the ground with RESERVE TANK anymore I just wonder if he’s possibly not quite the same horse in the early part of the season. Will be slow enough ground, but one thing in his defence was he improved for racing last term so this might put him spot on for Aintree & Punchestown. Would have liked to see another run before this race to expect him to be competitive

PERTEMPS

The plot jobs of all plot jobs usually wins this but it’s always a hard puzzle to solve and many have already been backed at prices. RELEGATE is one (Feel free to quote me after she wins) I don’t think jumps well enough and she maybe looks flattered by passing tired horses late on. I could be wrong and she’ll be staying home but she’s not for me. SKANDIBURG might just be high enough in the weights now while THE STORYTELLER was well touted for this last year and must have a chance off his mark. KILBRICKEN STORM is likely to run well without winning but at prices I still give chances to TOUT EST PERMIS & ROCKET LAD. The former has been nibble slightly and is more than capable of this mark while the latter has been easy to back and is available at 66/1 at the time of writing. I could be wrong and he’s just not a very well horse but his last couple of runs have looked suspicious to me but on that penultimate start he did get some course experience. Worth a poke at that price for sure

RYANAIR

A PLUS TARD – Probably for the best he swerved the Dublin Racing Festival as looked to enjoy the break when bolting up at the meeting last year. Does need to step forward to my eye to really justify his 165 mark (won a handicap and beat ORDINARY WORLD 10l – I know CHACUN was second). Only 6 so could easily have a bright future and more festival wins, but I’m just not certain he justifies being favourite off the back of beating CHACUN, who we need to see tested at the highest level. Granted there is a literal line between him and MIN, but they raced different versions of the same horse and this is over a different trip

MIN – My guilty pleasure. To be honest I’ll be glad when he retires so I can stop being drawn in! Trip is OK for him (Melling Chase win dampened by POLITOLOGUE bleeding), track is fine for him, tactically he’s not as versatile as some, but hopefully off a positive ride, and not just forced by being keen, they won’t be able to live with him and he’s the one I think they all have to beat. I’m certainly blinkered when looking at this horse so take a few pounds off my opinion and you’re probably closer to the truth. Side point here; he might be better suited to this new course

FRODON – Proved himself last season and he’s been about for a while now. If you’re prepared to ignore his two runs this season (first one basically a bumper and second one they tried to hold onto him and wasted energy) then I think he comes here priced about right. Wouldn’t be a shock winner, but certainly vulnerable to a more proven Graded horse or an improver

RIDERS ONTHE STORM – I had him pinned a just a good handicapper and in a few strides I went from thinking he’s actually a Graded horse to thinking, nah I’ve got him right in that Ascot Chase. Not ideal prep for this having such a hard race there and started his curve at Aintree so the Melling chase might be of more interest (although talk of ALTIOR going there!)

STAYERS

PAISLEY PARK wins this. Said to be keeping him going this season for Punchestown but break is long enough he will be fully wound up here. The ONLY niggle with him is he can be untidy at the last (usually when jumping on his own) and with the short run after that flight you’d prefer to see him pop those). SUMMERVILLE BOY is well found in the market behind him now and deservedly so after that Cleeve Hurdle run, but this is a bigger and more competitive field so that should only improve PAISLEY’S performance. EMITOM has to prove he likes it here but he’ll be fully cooked. I know Warren Greatorex said he probably was too easy on him before the Relkeel but even so I don’t think he showed enough in that race to confirm he could be winning this.

PENHILL would be my lively outsider here for a few reasons. Won this race in 2018, won the Albert Bartlett in 2017 and decent effort in the Boyne hurdle in fairness (all under Paul Townend). The MAIN reason I’m more leaning towards him as a danger is because he’s been hard to train, and the fact they’ve been able to get him racing suggests they’ve brough him on slowing. Willie Mullins said after BENIE DES DIEUX’s win how pleased he was with PENHILL’s performance and he was 21L back in second running to a RPR of 141 (CRIMSON EMBERS regained in the 80’s – 82+86)

STABLE PLATE

The form line is there for all to see with SIMPLY THE BETTS but I’d want to play that down slightly. IMPERIAL AURA was weak that day, the yard were out of form so his run could easily be upgraded. SIMPLY THE BETTS was flying and arguably was 100% that day so he wouldn’t have as much in hand I’d suspect. No doubt he’ll go close but at his price and it being double figure prices bar I think it’s worth looking to take him on. DEYRANN DE CARJAC will be popular but the ground worries me for him although I think he can manage this mark. OLDGRANGEWOOD has notched up a double so comes here in flying form while BEN DUNDEE has fair course form and looks off an attractive mark.

At bigger prices I wouldn’t want to lay VISION DES FLOS despit4 him never showing up at this track and LIVELOVELAUGH also needs to prove himself here, but I think this is about his trip and he’s off a nice weight

MARES NOVICES’ HURDLE

I really do like MINELLA MELODY, her form is rock solid even going back to her bumpers. The ground will help her as she will likely appreciate further but despite having to give weight to some of this field she’s the right favourite. COLREEVY improves with her racing so it’s no surprise to see her supported especially with the Mullins factor but I’d hope MELODY can confirm recent placings, even on a 1lb worse pairing. CONCERTISTA wasn’t beaten far at all in this race last year, so forgiving her maiden hurdle defeat when odds on her form in behind others the last twice reads OK (BLACK TEARS second yesterday off 144 in the Coral Cup)

FLORESSA is the best of the British but I’m not sure she’s the winner, the slower ground might not suit her but she’s a nice prospect all the same. DOLCITA has been easy to back but has the potential to play a part

KIM MUIR

Wouldn’t be a race I’d ever had a particularly strong opinion in but it’s clearly interesting to see how LE BREUIL, under Jamie Codd, and CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM, under Derek O’Connor get on. They’re both vying for favouritism now but I was put onto PLAN OF ATTACK a while back, who featured in my 60 second clips while still 25/1 so I’d personally like a big run from him. DEISE ABA was also mentioned in that video by Daryl and Trevor Hemmings has since come out and suggested he’s the best chance he has of a winner this week

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 2 - EVERY RUNNER, EVERY RACE

BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE

DÉCOR IRLANDAIS – Ran well at Warwick in the Leamington but his form overall is not enough to win this and he’s some way off

EASYWORK – Level of form looks easy enough to pick apart in terms of not looking top Grade. Certainly still a very nice sort sport hood this season

ENVOI ALLEN – Just looks all class. Pleased they’ve kept him fresh for this as I thought at Leopardstown last season he was a bit underwhelming in the Grand scheme on things but still got the job done here in the Champion Bumper. Don’t think he’ll ever win by a wide margin but he settles in a race, he jumps nice, he’s brave and he’s got a bit about him before a race too. He’s the type of horse who knows what his job is, knows he’s got a serious engine and that confidence means he’s unopposable here and I think a good few horses are swerving him which speaks volumes

GETWAY FRED – I think he’ll make into a nice chaser but form over hurdles is not up to this although step up in trip should answer some questions

LONGHOUSE POET – Type to run well without looking like the winner I think, tongue tie all season but has reasonable level of form, although 7ls to find with ENVOI on their Slaney Novices hurdle run. Another one of the four from that Punchestown bumper which I think is nice form

MOSSY FEN – Very nice horse but depth of his form is not up to winning this although I think he’s better than his 3m run round here would suggest

SHAKEM UP’ARRY –  Well beaten by SHISHKIN but that could look nice form if he were to run well in the Supreme and the step up trip is probably a good move but this is a hard race to break your duck (understatement of the week)

SHAN BLUE – Another beaten 11l by SHISKIN but that came over the middle trip. Something to find on form with a couple here and I just simply don’t think he’ good enough

SON OF CAMAS – Fresh from a Wind Op after a very poor showing in the Tolworth. If he was going to be considered any sort of player here he should have won that so hard to forgive him

SPORTING JOHN – Visually very impressive on debut at Exeter and that was a deep enough race for a starting point (HARRY SENIOR, BULLIONAIRE in behind). Carried that impression on when quickening clear from the back of the last at Ascot much like in that debut run. Two HUGE niggles for me is that he missed the Ballymore Trial here won by Harry Senior when conditions etc looked to suit so possible swerved a classier looking race with ROLAND in there, and that as well as he found for pressure on that debut win at Exeter he was taken off his feet a bit and there won’t be much give in the Gallop of a Ballymore. Does looks potentially classy enough to handle both those doubts though

THE BIG BREAKAWAY – Arguably looks to pick of The BIG’S and came with a reputation which often helps peak the interest. Hard to really knock what he’s done other than he’s not really come up against much. Might have wanted another run and the fact they’re minding him would hint that he’s more of a long term prospect so that would be a slight concern going into a red hot Ballymore where you’d think nothing short of peak performance would be enough

THE BIG GETAWAY – If this lad had social media I reckon he’d be feeling sorry for himself. All this talk about SHISKIN & ASTERION having to be split so the owner has a Ballymore chance and this lad has already cemented his place to my mind as a player. Lacks any form outside bumpers or Maidens so clearly a big step up in class and into the unknown and would want to have improved again from last win (beat 120 horse who won after by 17l). BIG horse, who has solid enough bumper form for me in behind FIDDLERONTHEROOF and in that bumper with SIXSHOOTER, SOVIET PIMPERNEL & LONGHOUSE POET. Can’t afford to make any mistakes like on his hurdle debut but lovely prospect

Summary – This looks a seriously exciting race to kick us off and we’ve got plenty of nice horses running at big prices. That is testament to ENVOI ALLEN though and there’s no doubt he is the one to beat. The prices have dried up close behind him now so I’d only be able to suggest LONGHOUSE POET as a value pick at this stage although the market has this about right, bar him

Selection – ENVOI ALLEN

Lively Outsider – LONGHOUSE POET

RSA NOVICES' CHASE

ALLAHO – Decent Graded hurdle form last season which would leave him a bit to find with MINELLA INDO but his latest win undoubtedly caught the eye and gave the impression he has a very smart future over fences. He’s only 6 so lacks a bit of experience like MINELLA INDO but Willie did it with DON POLI who if you look back at his career took in a few of the same races. You have to trust the master but I can’t feeling he might have been better in the Marsh (had the same view with AL BOUM PHOTO)

AYE RIGHT – Hacked up in a match the last day and wasn’t far off SAM SPINNER when unseating before that. No doubt this is a step up but half a chance at a big price

BATLEOVERDOYEN – I won’t dwell on the fact I didn’t expect him to travel and how poor he was here last year after not eating up but that is worth keeping in mind. I thought he could win at Leopardstown when he fell when beaten but there’s no doubt he’s a classy horse.  I’m just worried about him not putting it all in on every race

CASTLEBAWN WEST – Bit to find on form this season but step up at least does look to be a huge plus although he wasn’t every at the races here in the Ballymore last year which is a concern

CHAMP – He’s been at the head of this market since the back end of last season and you’d have to say it’s deserved. Second in a Ballymore won nicely at Aintree over 3m since. Always promised to make into a better chaser and started this season having never finished outside the first 2 in any race.

I harped on about this plenty least season but just a friendly reminder that he was a second season novice last term. If he had not been narrowly beaten by another one of Daryl’s guilty pleasures VINNDICATION back in January 2018 he would have already been chasing and would have had to go in what clearly reads as a very strong RSA renewal from last season. So, the point of that reminder; in terms of development he could have been talked about here with the Gold Cup in mind and 5 of the first 6 in the betting are also aged 8 with only DELTA WORK the exception who is a year younger

Now over fences he oozes class and without doubt he’s the one they all have to beat. The clear problem now is that he is beatable as is any novice. You don’t want to come in here off the back of a fall but 3 of the last 10 winners had suffered a fall that season (WEAPON’S AMNESTY, BLAKLION, MIGHT BITE) but they all raced and won after. Now hindsight is a wonderful thing, but considering nothing could go with CHAMP in the dipper, or rather nothing wanted to go that quick, you could argue that Nicky Henderson should have put another horse in there to keep him company. This better Grade of race, regardless how shallow it might look, will ensure that he’s not on his own. It’s also a benefit to learn about him appearing to need company at his fences before the RSA so I think on balance he’ll have schooled enough since and he’ll win

COPPERHEAD – Decent winner of a reasonable looking Reynoldstown renewal but wherever he lines up you’d have to worry about what’s that taken out of him. Lovely attitude but not sure he’s the class of some of these  and for now I struggle to get away from the fact he won his first hurdles race off 104 (Jan 19) and his first Chase off 125 (Dec 19). Those that saw him as the potential improver will be on a big prices but from a pools perspective, and only 3 spots up for grabs, I’d want him off my slip and beaten so and he can take a good % of the units with him

EASY GAME – Solid enough run behind FAUGHEEN and of course beat ALLAHO the time before that. He does look to be suited by a step up in trip and it wouldn’t need to unlock much improvement for him to play a leading role but on jockey bookings he’s not the first string which is notable

MINELLA INDO – Lightly raced before winning the Albert Bartlett and backed that up at Punchestown. Clearly a very good horse who benefits from him racing and the further they go with him the better I think. I haven’t been given the impression on either start this season that we’re looking at a Grade 1 winning chaser just yet, so for me he certainly needs to step forward but he’s entitled to given he’s only had the two spins over fences and 7 runs under rules

PYM – Pulled up latest in the race won by COPPERHEAD. Nice enough sort but shouldn’t be up to this

SLATE HOUSE – seemed a bit of a strange entry in the Cotswold Chase and despite winning the Feltham as that was going to be very tough so on that running I’d think he might be better back in trip for Cheltenham in the JLT. Take that line off form away and he comes here with a chance, although he did idle at Kempton

Summary – I do still think CHAMP is the one to beat here and I’m sticking to my guns that ALLAHO wouldn’t have been better at the middle trip this year although this race might be better for his future. He’s clearly a very good horse but him and COPPERHEAD are two I’d be keen to take on towards the head of the market. MINELLA INDO clearly has a chance but I haven’t seen any spark in him this season, but he was very similar last term and of course has won round here.

EASY GAME should run well not up in trip and if the real BATTLEOVERDOYEN turns up he could certainly play a part. SLATE HOUSE I’m not sold on in this Grade despite winning the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and if I was looking for one at a price I’d suggest AYE RIGHT is big

Selection – CHAMP

Lively Outsider – AYE RIGHT

CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE

KILFENORA – Well held by CRACKING SMART when beaten favourite last month and meets that rival on 1lb worse times for a 14l beating

CRACKING SMART – Once touted as an RSA type and possible lively outsider for the Stayers hurdle so no real shock to see him win the Boyne hurdle but it’s tougher now although clearly in good form

EGLANTINE DU SEUIL – Big price winner of the mares novice last year so clearly likes the course and not been in great form this term but could run well without ever looking the winner

BACHASSON – Once thought of as a Gold Cup horse and his hurdle ratings does look light. Failed to complete in two tries here so hard to judge how he handles the course truly and I just think he’s capable of a bold show

BALLYMOY – 0 from 3 over fences earlier this season and wasn’t great back over hurdles. Capable sort on his day but not sure this is his sphere to shine

FRANCO DE PORT – Willie Mullins was hoping to get this lad into the Martin Pipe so for backers of anything else in that race you owe the British Handicapper a pint. Nice horse, clearly better he’s shown the last twice when tried in Grade 3 company and looks to be ready for a bold show now upped in trip

TOP MOON – This would demand a career high and looking held now

BIRCHDALE – Just the one spin over fences this season and was pulled up in the Albert Bartlett before that. Won a nice Grade 2 here over this sort of trip but while he can run well he’s not exactly thrown in

CARNARDIER – First run for Willie Mullins and was an eyecatcher here last year in this race but 4lb higher mark still demands more

COKO BEACH – very in and out performer but had come with a big reputation from France so potentially will hit those heights one day

SAYO – Another runner who has aborted hurdles this season but another who is hard to suggest he’s well handicapped here

STRATUM – Nice horse but not sure he’s up to this and trip likely to stretch him

PROTEKTORAT – Can partly see the angle with this horse having cracking course form but his mark looks beyond him although the Skelton’s no how to ready a handicapper

MISTER BLUE SKY – Pieces of novice form read well now including when beating CASH BACK off levels in a Grade 2 last April. Not so good since but hard to rule out a revival

BLACK TEARS – Nice mare who deserves her rating in that sphere but back in open company I think she’s vulnerable

THE MIGHTY DON – Yet another who aborts fences to come here but last winning mark was 8lbs lower although the win did come on this course

TRAFFIC FLUIDE – Looks very well on based on his latest start when falling in the Ascot Chase but that race is likely to have left it’s mark and not just from the fall

CHESTERFIELD – Looks well held of this mark now and not getting any younger

ALFA MIX – recent JP purchase and mentioned by Tony Mullins on a preview night as a probably well treated horse. That’s enough to draw major interest to this 5yo

CHAMPAGNE WELL – Probably given an easy enough time when beaten at Doncaster latest and kept fresh since. Drop back in trip likely to suit and might just be off a workable mark

DAME DE COMPAGNIE – Well documented that the yard went to the trouble to get her 2lbs extra mark removed from collateral form plus the booking of Barry Geraghty suggests they mean business

HONEST VIC – up a stone since first win back in October this season and probably held now

THOSEDAYSAREGONE – Things looked to have clicked the last day and always threatened to be better over further although he’s struggled to back up a good performance in the past

GOLAN FORTUNE – Pulled up latest but won round here off a 4lb lower mark the run before. Probably held now but pieces of steady form going back through TOPOFTHEGAME & KILDISART to suggest he might be able to outrun his odds

BURROWS EDGE – Up 6lbs for his latest win which won’t make things easy and did fall earlier this season

FAGAN – 2^nd in an Albert Bartlett but his best days must be behind him. Quiet enough ride on stable debut and could run well off this kind of mark but very hard to trust his wellbeing now

Summary – Plenty of interest in here as you would expect for a handicap of this nature but a couple of JP runners deserves a second look in both DAME DE COMPAGNIE & ALFA MIX. The former was challenged after a new 2lb rise which was overturned and the latter looks well handicapped and has been bought since his last run.

Away from those I think FRANCO DE PORT will love the extra distance but the British Handicapper hasn’t been the kindest to him. BACHASSON, also for Mullins, is a classy horse but he’s had his issues although I think he has a chance here. At bigger prices I’m not sold on much but I would have to give another mention to FAGAN who is a horse I’ve always liked but you’re guessing as to his wellbeing these days

Selection – DAME DE COMPAGNIE

Lively Outsiders -  BACHASSON & FAGAN

CHAMPION CHASE

ALTIOR – Still the one to beat, doesn’t really need any reminders in terms of back class and while that Christy Chase took loads out of him, and in hindsight the ground was so bad Hendo should have pulled him, it probably worked out as a blessing. Had he missed that engagement he would have probably gone for a King George and that potentially would have taken even longer to get over. It’s actually worked out as quite nice prep. The reason I say that is the Tingle Creek was a thrilling finish and no doubt ALTIOR would have been worked to win that. The Clarence house was a different beast but again wouldn’t have been an easy race although he might have side stepped that for the Game Spirit anyway. I’ve always though he’s better when fresher and although Hendo says the ground might be going against him it doesn’t bother me, and the tougher test over 2m will make him more likely to win to my mind. If the ground did dry, which it wont, he’ll just have another edge over them. How they go over the last will be interesting, but I think DEFI needs to be in front at the last to have any hope holding ALTIOR off, as we know he’s rapid up that hill and DEFI looks like he might idle a bit in front. If he’s behind ALTIOR I can’t see him going by up the hill, unless ALTIOR is just passed it

BUN DORAN – Admirable sort but out of his depth here

CHACUN POUR SOI – Hoping to provide Willie Mullins with his first Champion Chaser and no doubt he looks very special. Was a decent performance at the Dublin Racing Festival but with no A PLUS TARD & CILAOS EMERY falling early it was very quickly became just a mission of beating MIN. That may have been the case pre race too but tactically he’ll be tested in the Champion Chase and you have to think he’ll be looking to kick for home early to be in the best chance of winning which he’ll find a much harder task with both DEFI and ALTIOR in with him. I’m not sold he’s capable of winning and given where he’s found in the market, and at the price I’d rather side with proven horses. I make it a match between DEFI & ALTIOR, unless CHACUN manages to slip the field like DOUVAN tried to do under Patrick back in 2018

DEFI DU SEUIL – He’s doing all the right things to suggest he’ll be right there and I’m sure he will. Not the most orthodox to see a JLT winning flirting with the shorter trip after but he’s class although I do wonder about the long season again, especially with a couple of tougher runs in the Shloer and the Tingle Creek. Jumps well enough in the main, but much more likely than ALTIOR to make a serious blunder and this will be 2m round Cheltenham at Championship pace, which he’s go to prove he can handle.

DYNAMITE DOLLARS – Put up at a wild price pre season but didn’t expect this division to look so strong now. Ran well enough on his comeback to say with normal progression he’s not far off these but likely to find at least one too good. Possibly the pace angle which I like in this race

POLITOLOGUE – Last years runner up is a big price! That shows his level of form this season and the class of this renewal but he knows his way round here although I couldn’t have him

SCEAU ROYAL – Last years third is also a big price and he does have it all to do to win this. Ran well enough last year and drying ground a positive so possibly overprices, but then this is a better renewal

Summary – So much hinges on the fitness of ALTIOT but I just can’t abandon him now. Especially as his price reflects that uncertainty. DEFI would be the percentage call as he’s in the best form this season and has the course form while CHACUN POUR SOI clearly is talented but this is a tough looking race. The fact Richard Johnson thought he was going to pick this lad up at Punchestown shows how good he must be so clearly has a chance. DYNAMITE DOLLARS is the least exposed away from CHACUN and I do think he could go well if gets an easy lead

Selection – ALTIOR

Lively Outsider – DYNAMITE DOLLARS

CROSS COUNTRY

ARLEQUIN DANCER – Trip would be the obvious concern but hard to ignore at a big price if able to get round

CHIC NAME – Has a good chunk to find on these terms but does stay and jumps this course well

DIESEL D’ALLIER – Picked up a handicap here earlier this season but on these terms he faces a much stiffer task. Won well enough but I think that was his big day although this 7yo might have more to offer

EASYSLAND – Rodeo rider on board and that action can make him look like he’s making mistakes when in fact I think he jumps well. Clearly needs to take a big step forward to dethrone the TIGER but looks like the only one capable of doing so in this field and is only 6

FACT OF THE MATTER – Likes it here but not the class to be playing a major role here

JOSIES ORDERS – Nearly a teenager and I still have nightmares about the 2016 cross country given he was awarded the race after but was running for a chunk. Best days firmly behind him now

KINGSWELL THEATRE – Likes it in front and will give backers a run for their money but he can’t be winning this, and I struggle to see him placing either

MIGHT BITE – Very big ask for this horse to win at this discipline on this stage at the first time of asking and almost appears a bit desperate. Never really looked like staying further than 3M even in his hay day so priced on reputation as opposed to chance

NEVERUSHACON – Does need to improve to play a part here but won nicely last time out

OUTLANDER – Nothing like his old self these days and like MIGHT BITE it would take something special to see him play any part in this

OUT SAM – Nice horse but has a bit to find to be in with any winning chance and already an 11yo

SUMKINDOFKING – Another Cross Country debutant which is a big negative but at least he should stay well

TIGER ROLL – Undoubtably the one to beat. Entitled to have needed him comeback run but I’d worry if he’s quite the force of old and while he’s 171 rated that’s a specialised mark. Clearly deserves to be favourite and I expect him to win but maybe not in the same style as last year

URGENT DE GREGAINE – EW player for sure but shouldn’t be able to win this

UTILITY – miles outclassed here. Ignore

YANWORTH – Fell here in December which isn’t a great start but at least one of the runners who is less exposed and probably one of a few who would be a lighter shock if they won this

Summary – Tiger roll is just so far superior on ratings that he should bolt up here unless he’s now passed his best. He would need to be well passed it to not even place but EASYSLAND would be the only realistic threat although I’m still fond of YANWORTH and we didn’t get to find out how he stacks up against the French horse after falling here in December

Selection – TIGER ROLL

Lively Outsider - YANWORTH

BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE

MICK PASTOR – Obvious concern with his performance back here in November but certainly something about this horse to suggest he’s classy, although he’ll need to be to shoulder top weight

ARAMAX – Possibly the easy choice in here after bolting up the last day but I think he wants better ground so he’s one I’d be against round here

PALLADIUM – Once looked like a top prospect and to be fair to him has won twice since being beaten as Favourite. Screams out that he’s being underrated and I give him a proper chance

LANGER DAN – Nice horse but twice been slightly underwhelming and this demands more

BLACKO – In fairness to him he’s won his two races in good style and might be under the radar given connections. Does need a step forward but like all at this age he’s capable of it

ZOFFEE – Much improved the last day and better ground likely the main factor in that. Chance if the ground stays on the right side of soft

CLEMENCIA – First start for a new yard but based on what he’s done to date he’s got a hard task

GALAHAD QUEST – I thought he was a good winner here in January on Trials day and while he might be overrated officially on that performance he looks to be one who should buckle down in a fight so the race should suit

SAINT D’OROUX – poor early in this season then almost too good to be true the last day. Potentially well treated but hard to trust

THYME WHITE – Been brought along slowly and Harry Cobden happy to ride so no doubt there’s more to come although I don’t like the headgear on a youngster

NIGHT EDITION – Another progressive type but hard to believe his last win is as good as the mark he’s been given

BAJAN EXCELL – Won in a handicap already this season but this race demands more and no doubt others are better treated

FRASER ISLAND – Looked a potential star when winning on debut at Newbury and in fairness he’s been beaten by some half decent types since. Although Nico jumps ship I’d give him a chance off this mark

RECENT REVELATIONS – Seriously interesting runner here who ran in snatches the last day. Win before that gives him a serious shout and one that appears to have had this race in mind from a long way out

SACCHOANDVANZETTI – Patchy enough form but so far beaten the last day you’d have to suggest he’s one for another day

GROUP STAGE – Another nice enough type who hasn’t done a lot wrong and gets 2lb from THYME WHITE after being beaten just under 2ls on his last start. Hard to pick out what’s holding him back so he’s on the watch list for now

GEROLAMO CARDANO – Won an ordinary maiden hurdle but looks up against it now

THEATRE OF WAR – Well fancied by a few for this race and if you watch back his Punchestown run when falling you can probably see why. Yet to win which is a worry but probably well in at the weights

REPETITIO – Nice win the last day and some fair runs before that. Gets in off a light enough weight and has that course form so must have an outside chance

GOA LIL – Hasn’t built on his reputation given from France but this race will suit given the fast pace and hard to rule out

TRONADOR – Given by Elliott on a few preview nights and could end up the wise guys pick. I rate FLOUEUR who he was behind before so the fact the trainer talks him up suggests he’s wasn’t in that race and I couldn’t put you off at a double figure price

GEALACH – Another runner with patchy form but on balance others looks better treated

Summary – Typically a tough race to gauge with no previous season form to go by but I do think a couple have been mapped out for this and the first has to be TRONADOR. I’m annoyed the price is going but I think there’s still some value and he should be on any shortlist. JP has few well found chances and there are some with Cheltenham form that looked underrated but I do think Nicky Henderson has landed on his feet this year with both PALLADIUM & FRASER ISLAND. The fact Nico has picked the former isn’t much of a clue as the pair look to be in with massive chances so those would the trio I’d want to go to war with at this stage although RECENT REVELATIONS must also have an outside chance

Selection – PALLADIUM

Lively Outsiders – TRONADOR & FRASER ISLAND

CHAMPION BUMPER

ADRIMEL – 2 from 2 in bumpers but wasn’t as impressive on the second occasion. Nice prospect but likely not up to this

APPRECIATE IT – Hard to knock other than his debut bumper where he was comfortable held. He’s been impressive since and clearly the one to beat

ASK A HONEY BEE – Solid horse and won well giving weight away the last day but this is a marked step up in a class and I think he’ll be found out

BRIEF AMIBITION – Well thought of by the yard but Paddy Brennan jumps ship which has to be noted

CAN YOU CALL – Held on bumper debut and hard to expect much more in here

ESKYLANE – Would have to read as a stand out chance given he was in front of APPRECIATE IT in that first bumper but considering what that horse has done since you’d have to say he wasn’t wound up the first time they met. Still this horse has been impressive since and the only negative is that fact Jamie Codd hasn’t chosen him

FERNY HOLLOW – Finally got his head in front in a hood and clearly a very talented horse. Proper chance against his stablemate here and I think there’s loads more to come from him

FIVE BAR BRIAN – Won on bumper debut showing good attitude at the finish but wouldn’t be the stables first string

GOOD TIME JONNY – Stayed on in his first bumper which could probably be upgraded and since has won with ease at Mussleburgh. Potentially much better than he’s already shown and I think this test will suit. Chance at a price

ISRAEL CHAMP – Much like the favourite he was a bit underwhelming on debut but has been all class since. His Ascot bumper win was with a penalty and reads as the best British form by some way

JULIES STOWAWAY – Looks a nice type and has fair form even when beaten. Got off the mark the last day and can run well but probably held for win purposes

LINELEE KING – Beaten odds on favourite back in October at Chepstow but the yard was off then and he’s been waited with since. Be a big ask to win this but could make his presence felt at least

MAHLER ALLSTAR – Put up by a follower as the bumper winner but has a bit to find with APPRECIATE IT on their previous meeting, although that was this lads first bumper run (fresh from points the same month) so entitled to come on but may want a stiffer test

ONE TRUE KING – point form leaves a bit to be desired and RPR of 116 for his bumper win says what you need to know about the depth of that race

SNOWPIERCER – Absolutely no chance

THIRD TIME LUCKI – has looked progressive but a big step up again is required here

DARLING DAUGHTER – Unbeaten when completing in all races including points and won a fair looking mares bumper in February. Gets the mares allowance and this championship pace should suit as she was keen enough when winning the last day

QUEENS BROOK – Jamie Codds mount which speaks volumes. Won by 21l on bumper and rules debut so could quite literally be anything. Very exciting but hard to take that win literally

THE GLANCING QUEEN – 5^th in this race last year, I expected her to be top novice hurdler in the Mares division this season so I fear she’s not been easy to keep sound but should be more forward than last year if match fit so interesting at least

AUDACITY – Won here on new years day but was poor at Newbury after so hard to balance

LET ME ENTERTAIN U – Big step up in class here and hard to gauge his debut effort so best watched now

OCEAN WIND – Probably wants better ground to be seen to best effect but fair form overall to suggest this 4yo can go well

PANIC ATTACK – Wide margin winner at Market Rasen for Willie Mullins, since sold, for me would have stayed in the yard if any good and looks one more for Aintree

Summary – Exciting looking bumper and I’m hoping APPRECIATE IT is the real deal. He looked class the last twice so you can see why he’s heading the market. Stablemate FERNY HOLLOW was my long range fancy and after finally getting his head in front I’d still give him a chance as I think he’s got loads more to come but might need an obstacle. QUEENS BROOK is clearly interesting with Codd on board too but I’m not sure I can trust her winning margin. THE GLANCING QUEEN could run well but it’s hard to trust how well she is in herself. Both LINELEE KING & GOOD TIME JONNY could run well at big prices

Selection – APPRECIATE IT

Lively Outsiders – LINELEE KING, GOOD TIME JONNY

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 1 - EVERY RUNNER, EVERY RACE

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

ABACADABRAS – 4^th in last season’s Champion Bumper where he looked a bit green on the run up, possibly a bit quirky (he ran out on his race prior) or maybe just didn’t enjoy the hill but a good chance he’s turned a corner now although I’m still not sold that Cheltenham is going to suit. He looked good when running ENVOI ALLEN so close at Fairyhouse and you’d have to argue that on form he deserves to a bit shorter given he’s a Grade 1 winner too. He’s also got the 4 runs over hurdles which is good experience but there’s just something about him I’m not sold on as a potential Supreme winner

ALLART – Two emphatic hurdle wins but both in class 4 events. Despite that lack in racing class he does appear to have settled better now and slightly under the radar. Wouldn’t be the most likely winner but wouldn’t be the biggest shock either

ASTERION FORLONGE – Biggest worry with this lad is that he does jump to his right, which in most cases would be enough to conclude his chance here, but I have been taken by the speed he’s shown, especially for a horse who should be better over further. Made light work of winning the Grade 1 at Leopardstown which has been a great pointer to this race and managed that without Paul Townend on board. Does like to be up with the pace which should suit in this race but there are straighter jumpers than him in here

BERKSHIRE ROYAL – Will be making his debut in this race which I believe has been tried 5 times since 1997 but those have been well beaten on each occasion. Owner has used David Crosse before but away from the trainer he’s of little serious interest, although no doubt one to watch

CAPTAIN GUINNESS – Won his Maiden well enough then ran ANDY DUFRESNE close in the Grade 2 at Punchestown but comes here with just two races under his belt and that inexperience will make winning this race very tough

CHANTRY HOUSE – Comes across as a horse who would probably excel over further but has quickened nicely including when round here but he was getting weight that day and he needs to take a big step forward on what he’s shown to be winning this. Same stats apply to him as SHISHKIN in terms of Henderson and lack of Graded form

EDWARDSTONE – Some neat form this season when beating Tolworth winner and Ballymore Trial winner with a penalty. Tried hood at Haydock in ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him so comes out of that race with a nk second which also reads well. Likely to be shy of Grade 1 class and may prefer a flatter track but a nice horse all the same and I think he’ll have more behind than in front of him

ELIXIR D’AINAY – The third of Willie Mullins runners and this lad has been tried over longer trips and wasn’t disgraced when second to ENVOI ALLEN on his penultimate start (which came in a Grade 1). Impossible to completely rule out now back down in trip as he’ll enjoy the furious nature of a Supreme

FIDDLERONTHEROOF – Twice impressive at Sandown on slow ground and entitled to have needed his first run when second to THYME HILL which reads as nice form. A little disappointing after with a view to being a Supreme winner when beaten by EDWARDSTONE and this is the deepest race he will have run in so he might just find one or two too good. Does come here with a proper chance and will enjoy any ease in the ground

HOLLOW SOUND – Just the one spin over hurdles when well beaten last month. Looks more of a token entry although his bumper run behind ERIC BLOODAXE is an OK line

JABBAAR – Very unlikely player in here and is exposed enough after three starts

MARIO DE PAIL – Notched up his bumper win at the second time of asking then bolted up in an ordinary novice hurdle after. Ran OK the last day but likely to be found out at this grade

SHISHKIN – There is no denying that this horse looks to have a great deal of ability and Nicky Henderson hasn’t minced his words when making comparisons with ALTIOR. He also talks of this horse as an Arkle prospect already. But to counter that, Nicky is often bullish and since FLOWN in 1992 (who was also the last winner to sport headgear) Henderson has 1 winner from 36 runners which of course was ALTIOR. You’d also have to go back to MENORAH to find the last winner with no Graded form and 8 of the last 11 had won either a Grade 1 or Grade 2.

He did fall on his hurdling debut but he couldn’t have been anymore impressive since, although despite what Nicky says about him I think he will appreciate a trip, and sooner rather than later. He’s full of speed too so for now he should handle a Supreme and we know that stamina assured horses fare well here. He absolutely could be the winner of a Supreme and there are question marks around them all, but he looks a leading player, despite this being the acid test

SOVIET PIMPERNEL – One I do like at a price and he is at least a Graded winner. Not sure what the riding arrangements will be but with respect to Kevin Sexton he might have won the Masterson Hurdle back in October round here under a more Cheltenham experienced jockey. Also, will be much better on a sounder surface but handles ease too so I think he’s versatile enough to run a big race, although I’m under no illusions that he’ll need some good fortune to be up with the winner. Has 18 lengths to find with ABACADABRAS and meets him here on 3lb worse terms

WHATSNOTOKNOW – Certainly progressive this season but even his expected improvement would be way short of what it requires to be winning this

HEAVEN HELP US – The one huge line which afford her to look overpriced is when she won round here in October beating MASTER DEBONAIR. Was later second to ABACADABRAS although possibly starting to look exposed now

Summary – This looks a well above average renewal so I think there will be a few to follow from this race going forward. As it stands I feel that holes can be picked in most of the runners but I do really like ASTERION FORLONGE. His price has gone now and he does jump to his right which would typically be enough to put me off a Cheltenham runner. SHISHKIN looks class too but this will be serious test for him while ABACADABRAS comes here with some solid looking form, although his peak effort came in defeat which is not something I’m keen on. CHANTRY HOUSE looked like he would want further than this but clearly has speed although it’s important to remember he was receiving weight when he won round here earlier this season. FIDDLERONTHEROOF has been visually very taking in his two efforts on slow ground at Sandown. The fact he’s been narrowly beaten the twice before that (regardless of how that form has been franked) makes me worry he’s running for a place at best. CAPTAIN GUINNESS is open to plenty of improvement but his lack of experience is an obvious concern whereas EDWARDSTONE is a bit more battle hardened. In fact his run at Haydock with the first time head gear on ground plenty slow enough for him should entitle his price to look quite big. ELIXIR D’AINAY may too look overpriced if the drop back in trip is the key to him as he’s shown he has an engine. ALLART has bolted up in a couple of weak races so would need to step forward from what I’ve seen and so too would SOVIET PIMPERNEL but he’s got a bit more to like about him. He won a Grade 3 the last day and was narrowly touched here in the 4yo Hurdle earlier this season. That’s valuable course experience and the better ground the ground the better his chance.

This should go without saying, but; please make sure you take advantage of bookmakers promotions. Hills go 7 places EW in this race so there’s plenty of appeal for EW backers to play a couple in here. Likewise with win punters, Skybet offer a £10 moneyback promotion while Paddy are offering money back for 2^nd, 3^rd & 4^th in all races on Day 1 (field size rules apply)

Selection – ASTERION FORLONGE

Lively Outsiders – SOVIET PIMPERNEL, EDWARDSTONE

ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE

AL DANCER – Won here on Chasing Bow back in October and has raced without the hood since. I’d have expected that to be applied once again here but even so he does have a bit to find

BREWIN’UPASTORM – 2 from 2 over fences and has a very likeable attitude to chasing. Looks brave and trusting and was a fair 4^th in last season’s Ballymore. Fell at the course prior to that but was running very well so he’s one I’d expect to be right in the mix. Wasn’t quite seeing out his races last term so the wind op looks to have certainly helped and this looks right up his street

CASH BACK – Not beaten far by NOTEBOOK at the Dublin Racing Festival and an argument to be made for him being able to bridge that gap under Paul Townend who rode DUC DES GENIEVERES to success in this race last season. 8yo but has only had 6 runs for Willie Mullins and 13 races all told, so possibly open to a bit more although has no Cheltenham experience, so how he travels is an unknown. Worth mentioning that UDS came in also with no course form and Willie has likened the pair which is no small statement

ESPRIT DU LARGE – 2 wins from 3 starts over fences but despite picking up the Grade 1 Henry VIII’s Novices Chase in December I think he still has a bit to find to be an Arkle winner. Still unexposed to every chance he can produce more, but he’ll need to and he’s another without course experience

FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES – Get’s no weight in the Arkle but would get 1lb from his rivals in the Marsh. Looks to be exposed as not quite good enough at this trip after being held by NOTEBOOK on 7lb better terms and in beating MELON just 3l when getting 8lbs. Best performance came at 2m 4f so the Marsh would have looked the best place for him to go but it'll be interesting to see if connections have got it right because this doesn't look an easy race

GLOBAL CITIZEN – Serious effort at Kempton in the Wayward Lad and I can only imagine the buzz David Bass got off him in that race. Well held by BREWINUPASTORM on their Carlisle race and this track will not play to his strengths. Good chance at Aintree you’d think

NOTEBOOK – Undoubtedly the best of the Irish on what we’ve seen, and his latest win could probably be upgraded given how unsettled he was in the prelims. However, he was also keen to post before the Ballymore here last year when a 50/1 shot and ran like his odds would suggest. He’s also been on the go since October so I feel we’ve seen as good as he’s going to be this season and there is a chance that back here, with the travel and festival atmosphere (especially so on Day 1) he might begin to plateau

OUR MERLIN – Comes here off the back of one chase start which in winning a Novice Handicap Chase. Interesting that they didn’t want to exploit that mark next time up but this 8yo probably wants to explore his chance to line up in a Novice Grade 1 at the festival

ROUGE VIF – Won the lightening Novices Chase at Warwick in very good style in a first time tongue-tie. That allows him to be taken seriously in here but has plenty to find with PUT THE KETTLE ON on their previous encounter round here earlier this season but had the wind op since too

MAIRE BANRIGH – Won latest over 2m 4f but that really stretched her so this trip looks her optimum. This would be her toughest test to date and her earlier beating of THOMAS DARBY doesn’t read as well now after his poor Chasing display after

PUT THE KETTLE ON – Good winner here in November and not seen since but had plenty of racing over the summer so the break might suit. Does have a bit to find on Official figures but a likeable 6yo who at least has course winning form with a couple of these in behind

Summary – 4 single figure priced runners here and it’s probably only NOTEBOOK’S pre-race excitement that has meant he’s not the short price fav his form warrants. He’s got the beating of FAKIR D’OUDARIES and now meets him on much better terms and it’s been proven how hard this race is for a 5yo. CASH BACK was also beaten by NOTEBOOK, but with Trainer and Jockey landing this race 12 months ago, they might just be able to bridge that gap with their Cheltenham experience, especially if the fav boils over in the prelims. That’s really the only concern with NOTEBOOK but I’d take course form over potential every single time when the horse in question has been lively to post both this season and at the course before.

BREWINUPASTORM looks a very nice 2m chaser although I would have quite liked to see him once more before this. He’s had his wind tinkered since last season where he wasn’t quite seeing out his races but I think he comes here with a serious chance. MAIRE BANRIGH will be better at this trip but shouldn’t be up to winning this and I’d be tempted to lean towards PUT THE KETTLE ON in we were looking at a Mares Match bet. ESPRIT DU LARGE & GLOBAL CITIZEN both come here off the back of winning decent trials for this race but the former might not be up to this and the latter is better suited to flatter tracks.

Selection – BREWINUPASTORM

Lively Outsider – PUT THE KETTLE ON

THE ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

VINNDICATION – Really impressive on his last start when bolting up in a first time tongue tie at Ascot. Probably wasn’t as his best here last season in the JLT but this longer trip should suit now but he’s off a high enough mark now

BRAVE EAGLE – I gave this horse a squeak in the Ladbrokes Trophy and he wasn’t great to be honest. Probably wants some better ground too

CEPAGE – Got the job done here after three tries this term. Mark reads as though it could be workable still however his runs came on the New course and this will be his first try on the Old

VINTAGE CLOUDS – This mark demands a career best effort  but was second in this race last year and staying on, albeit off a 7lb lower mark

MISTER MALRKY – Very impressive win the last day under a very good ride from Jonjo. He’s back in the saddle again and a chance if he’s recovered. He was well beaten, but he was 4^th in last years RSA so has that course form to boot

KILDISART – Looked to be held for a run the last day behind MISTER MALARKY and you’d think this is the one they wanted. Has won here (although on the new course) and his mark is coming back down. He beat MISTER MALARKY at Aintree giving him 4lbs last year off a 3lb lower mark so meets that rival on 5lbs better terms and he spanked him by 5l that day

DISCORAMA – Easy to forget he’s just a 7yo but would have been on the radar for plenty for something like the Ladbroke Trophy this season. Gets in here off 148 which looks an OK mark but even more interesting after a wind op. Form from last year reads quite well on reflection and he ran a big race in the 4 miler at last years festival. I do fear his price has dried up now though

WHO DARES WINS – Unpenalized for his Kempton win which looks lenient but does still have to prove he stays. This is also notoriously tough too so they must believe he has a good bit in hand

ATLANTA ABLAZE – Another runner fresh from a wind op and another who ran in last years 4 miler. Didn’t enjoy the best luck that day but this Mare has a chance if the ground stays soft

ACTIVIAL – 6lbs lower than last year when 6^th beaten 7 and ¼ lengths so on that line alone he’s got a chance. Didn’t seem to not stay and it’s interesting how they’ve campaigned him this season

MULCAHYS HILL – Race sponsors runner who I’m sure will be popular. Great attitude from this horse and I think he’s got mileage in this mark and will enjoy the trip. Must have a chance

BURBANK – Not sure this is his favourite track and his mark looks high enough now

COGRY – Loves it here but not getting any younger and this won’t be easy off his current mark

TOWNSHEND – Won like a good thing the last twice and 6lb rise might underestimate him as may his price. Nice claimer on top (not great for the trends guys) and has always looked like he wanted a trip

COBRA DE MAI – Down to a very interesting mark now of 142 and with Harry Skelton on board for the first time this season this looks likely to have been a long term plan. Cheekpieces and tongue tie are back on too which is a positive but often talked about as a better ground horse

BIG RIVER – 4lb rise for his latest win and this sort of test will suit. 1lb higher than last year though and was 4^th beaten 6l but another who was staying on close home and might be more confidently ridden

THE CONDITIONAL – Good winner here back in October off an 8lb lower mark. Very good second in the Ladbroke Trophy then a fair 4^th after. Dropped 3lbs for that run which means he’ll need a career best effort but he’s got an outside chance

ELWOOD – Often there or there abouts in his races but not sure he wants this extra trip and has no course form

SOUPY SOUPS – Narrowly beaten at Wincanton in the Badger Beers but has been kept for this race since off a 4lb higher mark but does need a career best effort

QUARENTA – Has been well beaten here in the past so hard to fancy until back on a flatter surface

NO COMMENT – 137 looks a winnable mark and he was going well enough when falling on his last start when back up in trip. Should have a chance, but others may be more reliable

VIVAS – 3lbs out the handicap but has won of this OR. Might be one for another day now

ICE COOL CHAMPS – 4lbs out the handicap and this demands a career best effort so little chance

Summary – As you’d expect of a Festival Handicap there are cases to be made for plenty of runners here but given how the market looks now I think I can bring this down to handful worthy of a mention. NO COMMENT has a chance but is hard to catch right and comes here off the back of a fall. BIG RIVER might just be primed for this race given how well he ran in it last year and a more confident ride can see him involved. COBRA DE MAI ticks plenty of boxes now he has his headgear re applied so would be on the shortlist along with TOWNSHEND, ACTIVIAL & MULCAHYS HILL.

They all look capable of running well at reasonable prices but I do think KILDISART is the winner of this race. The trip suits, he’s run well enough here in the past over a trip too short including when winning off 141. He was ridden quietly enough the last day and if it’s no worse than soft all over he’ll handle the ground

Selection – KILDISART

Lively Outsiders – MULCAHYS HILL & ACTIVIAL

CHAMPION HURDLE

BALLYANDY – Runs at about 2m read – 1121142314231 with the two 4ths coming in two big festival races, first at Aintree in the Grade 2 bumper and then 4^th in the Supreme. No Champion Bumper winner has won a Champion Hurdle (Bumper run since 1992) but a case could be made for him to be on the premises despite his OR of 155 usually being short of what it takes to win this

CALL ME LORD – Won the International here in December to dispel the assumption he can only go right-handed. Undoubtably disappointing at Sandown after but his run prior at Ascot was an OK effort and he does act on any ground. Good chance that the pace of a Champion Hurdle will suit and likely to bring out the best in him. ROOSTER BOOSTER did the International and Champion Hurdle last in 02/03 and although he won at Sandown in between, he was well below his best too

CILAOS EMERY – I’d suggest this gelding is capable of running in the 160’s over hurdles which does mean he has to come here with a chance. He’s fragile but has been able to run 4 times this season (once fell at the first over fences). I think the important thing to realise with him is that in that Dublin chase race he was just a 4/1 shot with stable mates CHACUN POUR SOI & MIN the only two shorter than him. Handles any ground but I’ve long thought he might just excel in genuine good to soft. He faced that in the 2017 Supreme when 5^th so course form a little niggle but he did go on straight after that race to beat MELON at Punchestown so we know the back class is there as is the current class. Can look a bit lazy in front and I wasn’t blown away with his Red Mills hurdle Trial but he’s entitled to improve from that and we know that Willie can ready one for a Champion Hurdle. HARDY EUSTACE too used the Red Mills Hurdle as his stepping stone to land this race in 2005

COEUR SUBLIME – An undoubtable issue with this horses wind to my eye as he’s often seen to plunge out of his races. They are obliged to be declared now but that’s not to say they always are but you’d like to see something to have been tweaked before the big one. Bolted up in the WKD hurdle this season and found only PENTLAND HILLS too good in the Triumph but given his inconsistency and the Grade he was won at, you’d think he has a bit too find at this stage of his career. JEZKI the last horse to do the WKD & Champion Hurdle double in 13/14

CORNERSTONE LAD – Has been a revelation this season and while he appears to enjoy the slow ground, he was running to a much lower level term in the same ground so he’s clearly turned a corner now. His Fighting Fifth win was marked down given the slow conditions and the injury to BUVEUR D’AIR. No doubt it hindered the former champ but how much is open to debate. After at Haydock he gave weight to the entire field and was beaten just under a length. Admittedly he has no Cheltenham experience, but he’s available at twice the price of the winner that day (gave him 6lbs), and ten times the price of the runner up (gave him 3lbs) so this 6yo is appears undervalued and he’s never been outside the first 3 in ALL his hurdle races although it’s clear he loves the mud

DARASSO – Looks a bit trip-less and on his last two runs you’d have to give him no chance in a Champion Hurdle. Lacks a look round the course too

DARVER STAR -  The only Novice who will take up his entry here and his two Grade 1 efforts this season have come with the support of a Tongue Tie. He was 4l third behind ENVOI ALLEN before running HONEYSUCKLE to within half a length in the Irish Champion Hurdle. His winning form though leaves enough to be desired for me (last beat FAST BUCK by 1 and half lengths while getting 3lb, he’s rated 142)

FUSIL RAFFLES – Big drifter for the Christmas hurdle which was taken by his Stablemate EPATANTE who was very well backed herself. Appears to be quite ground dependant which is worth considering when you look back at his Wincanton seasonal debut. That run looked OK with the allowance for normal progression but now I wonder whether even the Good to Soft ground was right on the cusp of his limit. That’s a major worry here, as is the lack of a visit and recent run

GUMBALL – Not so good the last twice after starting this season well but exposed enough now to suggest this 6yo isn’t up to this

LE PATRIOTE – Has won at this course and sports first time blinkers but I’d expect connections will be happy with a clear round and to pick up some prizemoney

NOT SO SLEEPY – Well handicapped horse in the early part of the season while notching up two wins off marks in the 120’s. Exposed as not good enough in the Betfair Hurdle but that did come on quicker ground so probably wants ease underfoot but this is an impossible looking task

PENTLAND HILLS – Last years Triumph hurdle winner who stamped his authority on the division with a nice performance at Aintree. Hasn’t looked quite the same this season and KATCHIT in 2008 the only other horse to do the Triumph Champion Hurdle double. In fact, FAUGHEEN, ISTABRAQ & HARDY EUSTACE are the horses who won a Novice Hurdle the year prior to winning a Champion Hurdle so historically it’s not easy and like KATCHIT, they all came in here off the back of a win

PETIT MOUCHOIR – Winless since his Chasing debut back in October 2017 but had been third in the Champion Hurdle before that and notched up two Grade 1 wins prior to that. Running better this season but his performances in those two races at Leopardstown (which he won on the build up to his Champion Hurdle 3^rd 2 years ago) wouldn’t be up there with his best career efforts. I can imagine he’ll be popular but he looks held to me for win purposes and there’s no guarantee how long the cheekpieces will help

SHARJAH – Chucks in an effort every now and then to suggest he’s a proper horse but unable to back it up in the main. Does look ground dependant and wants it to be on the better side which is a worry round here with the weather and he was disappointing on his last start

SILVER STREAK – Last years’ third when ridden for a place. Fortunate with the position really and the distance confirms he’s unlikely to have real Champion Hurdle winning aspirations but he’ll be ridden more forward this time round but has a bit to find with a few in here so place chance at best again

SUPASUNDAE – You’d have to go back some way to find the last 10yo winner of the Champion Hurdle which was SEA PIGEON in 1980 and HATTON’S GRACE in 1950 before that. He does have it have it all to do for win purposes, especially as he’s not the class of those horses mentioned but this is the right race for him, I feel they should have come here last year but he does look like maybe he wants a bit more than 2m but not quite 3m which is confirmed by his Coral Cup Festival win over 2m 5f. I think he holds a very strong place chance, especially with that Festival winning form, and he’ll have come on a bundle for that first run at the Dublin Racing Festival as he always does. Form figures at 2m over hurdles reads – 31782112224. His 7^th came in the ALTIOR winning Supreme, his 8^th and 4^th were both on seasonal debut. He’s placed first or second in 15 of his 18 hurdle starts after a run

EPATANTE – I’m not quite convinced she a true 159 mare just yet although with her allowance I’d say she’s about that. No doubt how visually impressive she’s been in her two runs this season but the first effort was just a Handicap and those closest behind who have raced have done very little for the form. In fairness to that race though, the 8^th and 9^th have won since and I think she can be judged on her own merits. I don’t think she’s far off this level, but I’m just not sure she’s there yet and I’m also not prepared to just brush last years Cheltenham effort under the carpet. Without doubt this is her toughest test to date, it takes a very special mare to be involved in this race (Both ANNIE POWER & DAWN RUN were also sent off favourite but then so was APPLE’S JADE), she doesn’t have much experience but she’s clearly coming here with a chance

Summary – I’m still convinced that this race could be run a handful of times with a different winner of each but I do still cling onto the hope that we have a good one in here. With that in mind I’ll be crystal clear here that I’m of no real strong opinion but I’ll let you know my thoughts. Realistically you’d have to be looking younger blood if we’re due a star. Now historically we know how tough it is for the 5yo’s who ran at the Festival to come here and win so you could probably whittle it down to the 6yo’s for the first look. GUMBALL has very little chance but both CORNERSTONE LAD & EPATANTE have shown enough this season to suggest they could be provide the answer. Neither has course form to speak of but I’m not prepared to just let what EPATANTE did last season pass me by. She was backed liked defeat was out of the question so I’m dubious about their Flu Vaccine excuse. CORNERSTONE LAD doesn’t have the same sexy connections but despite having to give the mare 7lbs he’s rated the same. He gave weight to both PENTLAND & BALLYANDY when narrowly beaten at Haydock but the underlying blot for him appears to be that he’s improved for bad ground. I do still think he’s overpriced given what he’s achieved.

Now to give the 7yo’s their due I think CALL ME LORD was very good here in The International and am slightly surprised, but not disappointed, that Jacob chose FUSIL. He does have serious potential himself but CALL ME LORD was below his best at Sandown, a race which historically the better horses have underwhelmed. He’s another for me who looks a fair price. SUPASUNDAE would be the first 10yo in a long time to win this and while I think he’ll be there or thereabouts, I’m not sure he’s up to winning this. That’s said with the expectation of a new star emerging so if that doesn’t happen he’s plenty good enough to win. DARVER STAR has some steady enough form behind big names but doesn’t look to me as though he’ll be anywhere close at the finish while SHARJAH is another who just does nothing for me. Of the 5yo’s PENTLAND clearly has a chance given his Triumph win here, but he was disappointing on both runs this term and I can’t shake that. FUSIL RAFFLES has been touched on and I think he could be a serious horse for the future but his Kempton run was very strange given he drifted quite markedly and went out like a light. COEUR SUBLIME has appeared to have wind issues his whole career so the wind op and tongue tie look logical and he might just best of those younger runners

CILAOS EMERY is a notable supplementation and he’s certainly good enough to be involved. He’d be the horse at single prices I’d have preference for and I’m still adamant he would have won the Arkle last term had he arrived. He’s been able to get more racing into himself this year and he showed enough in the Red Mills to suggest he’s capable in this field. BALLYANDY is an admirable performer but is probably better these days on slower ground and they did try him over 3m earlier this season

Selection – SUPASUNDAE

Lively Outsider – CALL ME LORD & CORNERSTONE LAD

MARES HURDLE

BENIE DES DIEUX – Outstanding Mares who has unfinished business in this race. Jumps beautifully in the main so that fall last season was strange but these things happen. Proved her class since and she really will take a great deal of beating here but it looks a better renewal than last term with HONEYSUCKLE here and STORMY IRELAND in better form

CAP SOLEIL – Well beaten after a break and plenty to find in here

CROSSGALESFAMEGAME – Just 1 win from 4 hurdles starts and that won’t be doubled here

DESARAY GIRL – 3 from 4 over hurdles and chooses to come here in stead of the Mares’ Novice but that appears to be a trip thing more than a class one

ELFILE – Bit to find with STORMY IRELAND but not much and did win nicely the last day

HONEYSUCKLE – 3 times Grade 1 winner with two of those wins coming in Open Company this season. Has shaped as though she’d prefer further than 2m and her latest win in the Irish Champion Hurdle was her least impressive win this season and he jumping left a bit to be desired for a Champion Hurdler, but she dug deep and still won the race. That was also her first time left handed and she’s yet to race at Cheltenham but I wouldn’t be as worried now and she’s the threat to BENIE

LADY BUTTONS – She’s a decent mare but was quite a way behind last term in this race

POPONG – Another Henry De Bromhead runner who looks likeable but this is a big ask

ROKSANA – fortunate winner of this last year and hasn’t looked quite as good in her first two starts but was much more like it in the Relkeel when second to SUMMERVILLE BOY under a 6lb penalty. That form looks good now, she likes it here but she shouldn’t be up to beating BENIE unless mistakes are made again

STORMY IRELAND – Been much better this season and is only a 6yo so her best is yet to come. Has been shown up to now that she’s more of a Grade 2 Mare but going the right way and might be able to make the best of the rest and will be lurking if there’s any mishaps

Summary– Happy to keep this one short because BENIE DES DIEUX will dot up here. No doubt HONEYSUCKLE is well above average but her latest run was a bit less promising despite her showing a good attitude. STORMY IRELAND can run well again as will ROKSANA

Selection – BENIE DES DIEUX

Lively Outsider – STORMY IRELAND

NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

PRECIOUS CARGO – Interested me earlier in the season when entered in a Novice Handicap chase the first time at Newbury when he didn’t run. When he finally did run in that race type I think he got shown up to be crying out for a longer trip despite running on slow ground. Put up what I’d class as a solid effort in the Kingmaker against better 2 milers on better ground. This race looks right up his street and I give him a chance

HOLD THE NOTE – Needed his mark to go up on his last start to get into this race and I did think he’d blown it by nearly winning. 12lbs higher now means this won’t be easy but it’s a relatively compressed race. Likeable sort with the trainer owner route but well found in the market now

ESPOIR DE GUYE – Up 24lbs since his debut but looks as though he handles most ground although I think others might have a bit more up their sleeves

TORPILLO – Step up in trip is interesting but not sure it’s the answer to him and I worry his mark is about right now

KNIGHT IN DUBAI – bumped into a very smart type at Haydock and that might just have exposed his level but he’s 2 from 2 under Conor Shoemark and his form here might not read well but I think he handles it fine

JARVEYS PLATE – First time blinkers and down to a reasonable mark. Best runs have come on the New Course but this is probably the right race for him but I’m not sold on the headgear

CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY – I believe he was found lame after his last start which was a fair effort over a trip too short. Dropped 1lb for that too and although Nico jumps ship I give this lad a chance of being there or there abouts if he is recovered

IMPERIAL AURA – Hard not to be taken with his latest effort especially with the drift on the day. Raised 7lbs for that so although he looked to have a bit in hand I’m not sure how much he has now. Probably is the right favourite with all that said but does look a bit short now

CHAMPAGNE COURT – I like this horse and he was a steady enough hurdler including round here. Blew his mark after two good chase wins in Handicaps but was well beaten here in January on Trials Day in a first time tongue tie which remains on here. Possible held off his mark now, unless they weren’t giving it their best effort the last day

GALVIN – Solid enough 6^th in the Ballymore here last year which could be enough to suggest his mark looks fair. He’s 0 from 3 over fences this season but has been ridden quietly the last twice. I think he’s been set up for this race but he did fall on his first start this season and made some bad mistakes over hurdles here last year but can only improve

PAINT THE DREAM – Yet to win over fences but had risen 13lbs this season. Hard to be confident about but has some fair form, including when 2^nd here in the Dipper after CHAMP’S fall

HIGHEST SUN – I fancied him a bit for the Coral Cup last year but he was poor so while I think he’s a nice prospect I’m not sure we’ll see his best round here

MELLOW BEN – might just want better ground and looking exposed now

EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS – I like pieces of his form, including when falling favourite on his chasing bow. Entitled to come on for the experience and showed good attitude the last day plus he’s been kept back for this race. Chance, but he was a bit slow at the end of his bumper here in 2018

BEAKSTOWN – I thought this lad would be an RSA or JLT horse this year so despite a couple of laxck lustre efforts so far this season (including appearing not to see out his races) I think he would be impossible to ignore off this mark. Did pull up in the Ballymore but might have been minded although he might just not like it here, and potentially wants some nicer ground

MITCHOUKA – Second season Novice with just 1 win to his name over fences from 7 attempts but has looked a bit more like his old self on the two starts for his new yard. Wouldn’t scream out well handicapped and twice pulled up round here

DALY TIGER – Lightly race horse who won on his chase debut before disappointing a bit after. Much more like it on his run last month which will have put him spot on for this and down the bottoms of the weights I think he could go well and the trip is no issue for me

LORD SCHNITZEL – Not really sure I understand where this lads fan clubs has come from for this race but Ruby Walsh has led that brigade. Form doesn’t scream out well handicapped and will want rain

DE PLOTTING SHED – Sent off 11/2 for this race in 2018  off a 4lb higher mark when pulled up and failed to win after for Gordon Elliott. Twice won for new trainer Suzi Best, beat WHO DARES WINS on his last effort when giving away 5lbs  and that horse is 147 rated. He looks overpriced IF he can handle this track

TRAINWRECK – Yet to win over fences from 7 starts but almost won on his last run when upped in trip for the first time. Ex point winner who might have just found the answer to break his duck

Summary – This is another very competitive handicap and the head of the market looks well deserved. That said, I think a few people will be on some of those early and I still think some value lurks out there at bigger prices. BEAKSTOWN is becoming frustrating and I’m not sure he really will enjoy Cheltenham after watching him this season but he must be better than his current mark. PRECIOUS CARGO looks to crying out for this trip and I think he has a genuine chance despite the lack of course form. Stablemate CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY could go well after a jog round the last day at the wrong trip but I also think TRAINWRECK could be in with a chance now they’ve stepped him up and seen improvement, although his price is getting a bit low now whereas DALY TIGER still has juice in his price and I think the trip could suit him too. 

One at a wild price is DE PLOTTING SHED, who I’ve remarked on above. On these terms, and in his current form I think he looks grossly overpriced, but I do accept he pulled up in this race in 2018 and he is now a 10yo

Selection – PRECIOUS CARGO

Lively Outsiders – CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY & DE PLOTTING SHED

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

ANTEROS – 12yo who will have no issues with the trip, but in this class he will find it very tough

CAREFULLY SELECTED – Second in the 2018 Champion Bumper  only beaten a nk. Never been outside the first three in all races under rules and unbeaten un his two points. Does lack that one standout line of top class form and jumping has looked cautious. To counter that; his last run was just to get him qualified. Didn’t even need to win which will have been part of the reason why he was ridden how he was. We’ve seen over and over how many horses will make mistakes when they’re eased into a flight with a long lead, much better to be ridden into them. That was only 2 weeks after his previous run so was close enough, but allowed more time between then and now to get him prepped and ready for the big day. Willie Mullins has (well Patrick) had this race mapped out for him for some time. I pitched him as a genuine Albert Bartlett type last year which he almost could have made if Willie had have declared him in January 2019 when the rain actually came. Good 3^rd to MINELLA INDO at Punchestown after light season

CLONDAW CIAN – Well beaten in this race 12 months ago but did at least complete and didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs. Hasn’t been in any sort of form since but this trip and test will suit

FORZA MILAN – Derek O’Connor booking is a positive but enough to find with CAREFULLY SELECTED based on their last run despite appearing to be staying on and short enough price now

LAMANVER PIPPIN – Interesting now up in trip but overall form this term demands much more

LORD DU MESNIL – One of the higher rated runners here and the trip shouldn’t be a problem. Track might not be to suit as was well beaten here on new years day 2019 but if that can be ignored has a chance

NEWTIDE – Lightly raced and 2 from 2 since chasing but was gifted his latest win by a faller. No doubt there’s more to come though

OCEAN COVE – Stamina laden horse who will really thrive for this step up in trip and with Lisa O’Neill on board I think he’ll go well at a price

RAVENHILL – Always fancied by the yard but with the race cutting up he takes up this engagement after looking to be heading for the Kim Muir. Maybe this was always the plan and with Jamie Codd on board you know he’ll be trying his best but looks short enough for me now

REDZOR – Impressive winner on his chase debut but just found out in better company since. Trip could well suit if he can get into a rhythm but may want the ground to dry

SMOKING GUN – Bits of form this season to suggest he could play a role here but hard to forgive his last start

SOME CAN DANCE – Doesn’t come here in great form and plenty to find on figures

SPRINGFIELD FOX – Absolutely bolted up last month and his second start over fences but this does demand more and will be a more competitive race than he’s face to date

THE HOLLOW GINGE – Nice type but one who might not be suited by the demands of this test

Summary – I really do think it’s just a case of jump round and CAREFULLY SELECTED wins. In fact I’d make him one of my stronger fancies of the week. I’m not worried about his jumping and with the shape of this race changing quite a bit of late I think those in behind him are now well underpriced. If he were to come a cropper I’d be tempted to look much further afield for some value and give both OCEAN COVE & last years 4^th CLONDAW CIAN outside chances to place

Selection – CAREFULLY SELECTED

Lively Outsiders – OCEAN COVE & CLONDAW CIAN