I'll kick things off with my literal list of horses to follow for the upcoming National Hunt season but please do be assured that via the Facebook page each and every horse I'm keeping an eye on will be posted at either entry or declaration stage. My complete list is well into the hundreds so despite this being a big article I assure you it's been condensed. I've also looked to include those which you might not hear about elsewhere but a few will feature on many peoples lists I suspect. It's also quite apparent the form links of a few of these, which is typical of the way I like to look at NH Horses; first in isolation and then at the race itself
There are two following sections for Second Season Novices' (horses who have not won a race in a particular discipline when first trying it last season) which again I've only been able to highlight a small amount of but the others who fit this profile will be alerted via Facebook
Finally there are some others to note with a quick line or two on each
EASYWORK
Gordon Elliott – Gigginstown Stud – 6/7yo
So I wanted to start off with probably the most obvious
runner in the list and while I am to provide you with my views on the ones that
may not already be on your radar I think it’s worth talking about this lad
anyway. Two Grade 1’s second places were the end of EASYWORK’S season but there
was certainly a feeling that he still had a bit more to offer over hurdles had
we been able to carry on with the remaining spring festivals. That said, I
think he learnt almost everything he needed too from that novice hurdle
campaign and it might benefit him more than others to call his season short. He
completed 5 races last term after starting off in another bumper which he won
as he should have. The only initial niggle there was the application of the
hood. I appreciate it’s their to be used but I don’t like headgear as a general
rule for horse who haven’t even raced that much. He went on to narrowly beat MT
LEINSTER which looked OK form at the time and on St Stephens’ Day he absolutely
bolted up when upped in trip for the first time. Now we can argue that his
chief rival was poor and that he’s failed since, but even DISCORAMA was in the
race a beaten by almost 50. EASYWORK wasn’t really extended but I think that
performance was entitled to be taken at face value.
The drop back in trip for the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle,
and his first Grade 1 attempt, felt a bit like he was running there because
they had other options in the middle distance division, namely ENVOI ALLEN. He
bumped into a proper horse in ASTERION FORLONGE, regardless of how that horse
performed in the Supreme so while being beaten just shy of 10 lengths isn’t
ideal, I think it was a fair result at a trip which looks blatantly too short
for him. Now to review that race choice you could argue the hood suggests he
doesn’t really settle, so running him over shorter implies that he’ll be going
faster and the settling issue becomes irrelevant. I’d challenge that slightly
to suggest he wasn’t 100% relaxed in that Leopardstown Grade 1.
Now onto the festival where he finished second behind ENVOI
ALLEN, and I think this is where you’re going to get a number of people
starting to look at him. Rightly so because it was a cracking effort, but Rachel
Blackmore was vocal afterwards about just how freely he ran which was apparent
in the early exchanges with how strong a hold he took. Let’s put that into
reality. He pulled hard, he hung on the run up and he was still second-best
behind ENVOI ALLEN. I’m not saying that I’d expect that form to be reversed now
they book look to be sent chasing but I do think he’s a top novice for the
season ahead. I also think he’s a genuine player in the Marsh Chase as the
blend of speed and trip coming back 1f means he might just find his comfort
zone. Let’s also not forget that ENVOI had been there and done it at Cheltenham
whereas this was EASYWORKS first experience.
He’s available at 16/1 with William Hill for any race (can
boost to 17.52/1) but he’s actually shorter than that in place just for the
Marsh Chase alone (25/1 top price with BV only). Now I think he’ll go to the
Marsh, and I think he’s got a proper chance of winning it, but he needs to
settle for chasing which I think he will, you only have to look at CYRNAME who
sported the Hood from an early stage but he’s thrived with the additional
distraction of a fence and over time. Furthermore, for the Marsh chase it’s not
a forgone conclusion that ENVOI ALLEN will head for that race. He’s favourite
for both that and the RSA so that hints already but I’ve said on multiple
occasions they think of him as a Gold Cup horse, always have, and I know
Cheveley Park want an RSA horse not a Marsh horse (look at ALLAHO last season).
For me I don’t see why you wouldn’t start the season with all options open but
with a view at testing him as a staying chaser as some point. If it works out
then the RSA clearly becomes the target and I don’t see why it wouldn’t work
out. He clearly stays strongly. We know he’s quick too especially with all the
Supreme talk last season but that’s a plus as loads of Gold Cup winners have
shown bundles of pace as Novice Hurdlers.
That makes the value on EASYWORK seem even greater
considering I think he’s got a chance even if ENVOI lined up in the Marsh so if
you took him out I’d have him as outright favourite, even at this stage.
Gigginstown and Elliott do have FURY ROAD as an RSA horse so I really do fancy
EASYWORK for the Marsh but the added security of the any race market at this
stage still represents value for me
Gordon Elliott – Michael Grech – 5/6yo
So this horse was suggested on his debut for Gordon Elliott
as one to keep an eye on where he won nicely but there was certainly some
strange movement in the market. He around 4/1 the night before which I snapped
up but then as I logged on to watch the prelims he went out to 14/1. Now I
appreciate the drift from that yard but I went in again and he was duly backed
before the off to SP at 4/1. That race was under Gordon’s ownership and after
he was sold to Michael Grech formally of Grech & Parkin.
The horse went on to run in a Grade 3 over 3 miles where
ultimately he was poor but having been handed an opening mark of 141 I wonder
whether they tried that grade and trip to almost suggest he needs to come down
the weights. I’d be seriously interested in this horse if he stays over hurdles
this season because I think he is a 140’s horse but probably wants the middle
distance and potentially he might make his way down to a mark when they decide
to go and pick up a nice handicap with him, maybe around Christmas. I think the
key factor here with this horse is, they decided they wanted him to win first
time up and the horse responded to a fairly aggressive ride so I think he has a
few more days in the spotlight ahead of him I just need to spot them!
YOUR DARLING
Ben Pauling – Lord and Lady Vestey – 5/6yo
This lad probably makes quite a few lists for horses to
follow but again I think he needs the mention because he was pulled up last
time out so maybe a few have discounted him. It’s fair to say Ben Pauling
didn’t have the best season last term but I think from what we’ve seen over the
summer he’s turned a corner and the yard seems to be back to it’s typical form.
This horses debut was so impressive when beaten FLINTEUR SACRE but I don’t
think the rest of the field were much to be honest. Now FLINTEUR maybe needed
the run more than YOUR DARLING but the pair were both keen and I just think
there won’t be a lot between them this season.
He’s got a bit of stamina in his dam line so I wouldn’t be
surprised to see him campaigned like WILLOUGHBY COURT was the year he won the
Ballymore so where this horse starts out is going to be interesting. That said,
BRIGHT FORECAST, another recent Pauling placed Ballymore horse was a 2m Maiden
winner and only stepped up in trip at the Festival itself.
He’s a 40/1 poke for that race but he’s now 20/1 from 25/1 with Hills for any race which looked the way to play him for the season ahead. I’m already on, but I did also take some of the 40/1 for smaller stakes because I think that’s the race where he’ll end up
Henrietta Knight on YOUR DARLING:
“After Warwick he had an infection in his lungs
and obviously that stopped him in his race. He's being given a long
holiday with me at West Lockinge Farm but I still have a very high opinion of
him. He's a magnificent horse and I totally believe in him. He'll go
novice hurdling in the autumn and will be suited by longer distances. We
schooled him before we turned him out to grass and he's just a phenomenal jumper.
Before he came to England he had been educated around three point-to-point courses
in Ireland, which is the same as Best Mate. I'm excited by this
horse; to me he has everything and a wonderful temperament.”
KILTEALY BRIGGS
Jamie Snowden – McNeill Family – 6/7yo
This lad was a beaten favourite on his rules debut but that
was a 2m bumper so the trip was likely to be on the short side. The front trio
all looked nice prospects at the time and pulled a long way clear of the
remainder. REDFORD ROAD won that day and picked up the Grade 2 Bristol Novices
hurdle (With KILTEALY behind) and he’s now a 140 rated horse. ADICCI back in
third hasn’t really gone forward, having won just once since and is now a 124
rated horse.
KILTEALY himself falls between the pair on an OR of 136 but
I would strongly suggest that he will make the best chaser of those and I think
136 is more than generous starting point. He’s a big old boy and having seen
that he suffered with Colic this summer I was relieved to see how well he
looked when leaving AP McCoy’s training facilities. Now given his illness you’d
have to think there will be a patient approach, and likely we won’t see the
best of him for at least another season but I do think he’s a very nice horse,
and given what we know now I think he can be judged with leniency on whatever
he does in his first couple of races but he’ll win a few nice pots if we keep
him onside
LIEUTENANT ROCCO
Colin Tizzard – Sherborne Utilities Ltd – 5/6yo
Very impressive on rules debut at Chepstow when well
supported and he then backed that up with an arguably better performance at Warwick.
That earned him a place in the Albert Bartlett but those were three quick runs
and that was a significant jump in class, especially for his first trip at 3m.
The interesting thing with this horse is that Paul Nicholls had him so I’m not
sure the of the back story and why the owners moved yards but it’s an
interesting one given he won so well.
He has a mark of 139 for his exploits over hurdles but
he’s another that will make a nice chaser. As it stands you’d think the middle
trip would suit as a starting point but I’d still be interested when he steps
up in trip again. He’s from a nice family too with his Dam being an unraced
full sister to FIRST LIEUTENANT who himself was a nice middle distance hurdler
and picked up the Ballymore in 2011. He thrived over fences with a couple of
seconds at the Festival after (RSA and Ryanair) but was an Aintree Bowl winner
too. Anyway, I just feel this horse looks above average and I’d be happy to
think he’s going to end up as a Graded Chaser
EDEN DU HOUX
David Pipe – Prof Caroline Risdall – 6/7yo
OK so fair to say last season was a bit of a write off for
this horse and arguably would have been better to have not lost his maiden
status when winning by a shd. He was a Class 1 winner in a Bumper but he had a
wind op last term following the application of a tongue tie and on his last run
had cheekpieces applied. Now you’ll know I’m not a fan of horses with headgear
or potentially obvious breathing issues but both his last two runs were above
average efforts to my eye if you consider there probably was an issue. How they
play him this season will be interesting but I think he’s fallen off a lot of
peoples radars at the moment so he’s on here more as a reminder that he’s still
a very exciting prospect, and while his issues might prevent him achieving what
we expected after his bumper runs, he’s capable of winning plenty off a mark of
131 so I for one will be following him with a closer eye this season. We also
know that David Pipe is a shrewd operator so by keeping an eye on his
performances we might be able to work out when his chance presents itself
HARRY SENIOR
Colin Tizzard – Brocade Racing – 6/7yo
This horse is probably a likely one on most peoples lists because bar his Albert Bartlett run where a mistake cost him and he was clearly minded he’s got some solid form. Now I do think tactically he stole that race from KING ROLAND (better ride in the finish) but he did win it well so maybe I’m being a bit harsh. That was at the middle trip which might just end up his bag over fences. He’s already a 143 rated horse, although that might just be high enough for the literal hurdle form, but you’d expect he’ll be half a stone better at least over fences so that leaves him around the 150 mark and that’s where the caution creeps in. I’m not sure he’ll make a top notcher just yet over fences (I know he’ll only be a Novice, but still) so how they play this season will be interesting. He ran well at Chepstow's season opener last season so maybe they’ll be thinking about a race there, maybe over hurdles just to kick things off.
He’s
another horse (as you’ll see mentioned a few times) that I think would be a proper
contender in that Novices’ Handicap Chase come that Tuesday in March, but you’d
think they’ll try and see how far they can get him to go before then which
means his mark of 143 might not last out. However, if he doesn’t quite shine in
better company I do think it’s worth keeping an eye on that OR because like I mentioned
before, I think he could end up a 150 horse this season, but that wouldn’t
scream out he’s going to be winning a Marsh which brings that race on day one
back into consideration.
It’s also worth noting that should he start over hurdles
this season and win on debut then the Stayers Hurdle could be a smart move
(They thought about it with NATIVE RIVER) but he should really progress for
chasing
TACTICAL MOVE
Willie Mullins – Mrs J Donnelly – 6/7yo
His dam is a half sister to DENMAN but he’s the only race
winner out of the three she’s produced. He was runner up in his point behind
EDEN DU HOUX but he’s clearly had more issues than that horse having only raced
twice since when 2nd in a bumper then winning one last term.
Personally I thought both bumper runs where decent especially when you look at
this horse as a staying prospect. Now I was a bit surprised we didn’t see him
after that bumper win last season so maybe the issues are back but I’d expect
him to be hurdling this season, and he’s on my list of Albert Bartlett profile
horses for the season ahead. He’ll need to get racing into him, and it’s
plausible he’ll need slow ground but over in Ireland there is a really good
program for staying novice hurdlers and I’d hope he could pick up a few race
for us before the spring. The runner up in that winning bumper, IDAS BOY, is
also worth keeping an eye on this season with a similar profile in terms of
staying novice hurdles the likely plan
ENRILO
Paul Nicholls – Martin Broughton & Friends – 6/7yo
It’s another horse with form behind EDEN DU HOUX but I
assure you, like TACTICAL MOVE, this lad is in here off his own back. He has
two stand out lines for form from last season which was while beating
THUNDERSTRUCK on hurdles debut and then landing the Winter Novices’ Hurdle. He
flopped inbetween and wasn’t great at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle but he’s
going to make a fine chaser although his lack of being able to back up a
performance is a bit of a concern once we get racing again (has won on ever
other occasion). He’s a winner at both Kempton and Sandown so you’d think that
likely targets this season would be the Scilly Isles in the new year but they
may look at 2m races with him and the Wayward Lad would be interesting
although he might just fit around plans with PIC D’ORHY
SIXSHOOTER
Noel Meade – Gigginstown Stud – 5/6yo
A horse most of you will know I’m weirdly a big fan of and
that’s going to continue into this season because he was very much always going
to make a nice chaser. He’s wasn’t the biggest as a bumper horse but looked to
have caught up last season so I think he’ll have grown again and settled into
his size. Whether he’s going to make the grade I thought possible back from
that Punchestown bumper I don’t know but he’s better than 135, that I can
assure you. Maybe there was a plan for Punchestown again last season but
obviously that couldn’t happen so maybe they’ve got something lined up for
seasonal debut. I’m just very excited about him going over fences (providing
they do this season)
FRANCIN
Willie Mullins – Mrs S Ricci – 7/8yo
DANNY WHIZZBANG
Paul Nicholls – Mrs Angela Tincknell – 7/8yo
I really do think this horse can be quite good this season.
He’s a big lad and looked as though while hurdling that it was very much a case
of bringing him on. He picked up a Grade 2 on his chasing bow while taking the
scalp of RESERVE TANK but that was only a three runner race and he was getting
5lbs from the horse mentioned. Still, I like the way the he stayed on stoutly, I
think he’s possibly a bit of a slow horse who will just stay and that’s why I’m
really hoping he’s heading to the Ladbroke Trophy this season because he just
ticks so many boxes. He’s rated 145 at the moment so I’d be shocked if he doesn’t
pick up a handicap this season, but whether they might take one before deciding
about a race like the Ladbroke Trophy is still undecided. I’m saying that like I
know the plans, but when Harry Dereham did a recent live stream from the gallops
I asked about this lad and that race and he said no plans had been made at all which
was a little annoying.
Anyway, he ran ok for a long way in the Kauto Star Novices’
Chase on boxing day and wasn’t really every settled at Ascot after but he has
that winning form at Newbury and if they can keep on top of his wind (had an op
before that Newbury run last term) I really do think he’s a proper chance. I’d
think Aintree might suit him too whereas Cheltenham I’m not so sure on yet, but
we’ll see as the season goes because I’ll be following him throughout
FUSIL RAFFLES
Nicky Henderson – Simon Munir & Isaac Souede – 5/6yo
Early last season, in fact straight after Wincanton and
landing the Elite Hurdle Daryl Jacob commented on FUSIL RAFFLES and said that
he actually didn’t recognise the horse when coming back to ride him out as he’d
gotten so big. No take that as you like but he looked genuinely shocked at how
much he’d grown. He got 3lbs from GRAND SANCY that say but I thought he rallied
well and would come on a ton for the run so I thought it was a solid enough effort.
He was sent off joint favourite for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton but was clear
fav in the run up and the night before. To add a bit more fuel to that drift, his
stablemate and future Champion Hurdle winner EPATANTE was the one for money so
I could be reading too much into it, but I was less than surprised when FUSIL
didn’t really run his race. The rain had come so it was the first time I
thought he might be a bit ground dependant but at the same time I wanted to
give him the benefit of the doubt and put a line through that run. He was nibbled
in the market on the day for the Champion Hurdle but was well beaten so again
with that run coming on soft I’d hold some reservation about ground for him. But,
he’s only a 5yo. Lots of juveniles struggle in that first season in Open
company and plenty catch up after.
To go back to the size thing with him, he’s clearly built to
be a chaser, and he’s going to thrive in that sphere. Given how much he’d grown
for one summer he might not have yet been used to that frame being filled and I
think he’s one to keep firmly on side. Comparison to DEFI DU SEUIL isn’t really
like for like as the yard had a bug which almost cost DEFI his life in his first
year outside Juvenile company, but it goes to show that they’re young enough
not to be written off and I do think once FUSIL steps up to the middle trip he
can show us what he’s really made of
HAPPYGOLUCKY
Kim Bailey – Lady Dulverton – 6/7yo
This ex pointer managed two thirds in Grade 2’s over hurdles
and was 4th in the Martin Pipe after being hampered at the last.
Before those run he won his Maiden hurdle by 11 lengths beating a now 132 rated
chaser with ease. His mark of 139 looks very attractive for this season where Novice
chasing will surely be on the cards.
I think he’ll stay every inch of 3m but given his exploits
at the middle distances last term over hurdles you’d think that would be where
they’d start off. He is a 6yo but he’s only had those 4 spins under rules, all
of which came on soft ground but he’ll handle proper NH going on any end of the
spectrum I feel.
IMPERIAL AURA for this yard took the Novices Handicap Chase
at the festival starting his chasing season off 136 (raised from 133 after
hurdle run at Chepstow) so they’d want to be careful of how high HAPPYGOLUCKY is
raised this season, but I’d think that could be a potential long term forecast,
or even the Novices Handicap Chase on Trials day if he’s creeping up because he
can always go for the Stable Plate after (Being written with the assumption
neither race will be dropped) which SIMPLY THE BETTS took this year, and he and
IMPERIAL AURA were 1/2 in the race on Trials day.
MUD RUNNER
Henry De Bromhead – Julian Taylor – 6/7yo
I would think other than followers of the page and those who
read the “Ones to Watch” most people wouldn’t know much about this horse. He is
a full brother to WEAPON’S AMNESTY an Albert Bartlett and RSA winner at the
festival so those into their breeding may have him on their radar somewhat.
He made his debut in a 2m Maiden hurdle last November which
looked at the time, and has worked out since, to be a pretty ordinary race. The
thing with this horse was that he was the one I watched throughout the race,
and despite knowing he’s bound to want at least 3/4 of a mile further he ran OK
for most of the race considering he was a bit keen and he really flew home. I
think he was given an educational ride but it was a shame we didn’t see him
after. How sound a horse he is I don’t know but, he comes into this season with
that Novice Status in check and he’s of serious interest when stepping up in
trip as I think he’s got the potential to be above average and he’s going to
win races. I’ve mentioned before, but the staying novice hurdle scene in Ireland
is littered with some good races but the majority of the top grade horses tend
to steer clear of them in favour of either calmer campaigns before the spring,
or looking at maybe more prestigious middle distance races. That means I think we
can expect him to win a race or two and we might just get some value in there
too
SECOND SEASON NOVICES’
HURDLERS
FAUSTINOVICK
Colin Tizzard – Taylor & O’Dwyer – 6/7yo
I’d say this horse must have been one of the biggest let downs
last season given he’s ended it 0/3 and with an OR of just 122. He’s another
for Colin who has solid point form (6l behind ANDY DUFRESNE) and a solid enough
bumper run. Despite being turned over at odds on when making his hurdle debut I
thought it was an OK effort for which he’d improve greatly. He didn’t, although
he bumped into a couple I think but his last run of the season at Ascot was
fairly tame too. That came after a wind op and the application of a tongue tie
and he could have actually run in a handicap. Now I feel there may have been
plans for a handicap race at the end of the season, the same maybe true of L’AIR
DU VENT too. They could have got their win then started a campaign over fences
so while that’s delayed I’m adamant this horse will be winning off a mark this
light. He’s also a horse that Colin mentioned a few times pre season as one he was
excited about so I’m happy to draw a line under last season for him and go from
scratch this term
TIME FLIES BY
Nicky Henderson – JP McManus – 5/6yo
On debut he picked up a Class 2 bumper at Cheltenham and he
was very weak in the market that day. It was an absolute bog but he cruised to
the lead and won nicely. He came back to Cheltenham for the November meeting in
yet another bumper however was beaten by ISRAEL CHAMP who went on to land the another
Class 1 bumper after this at Ascot, so we know he was beaten by a good horse.
Often big trainers will stick horses like this into Graded
Company for hurdling because it protects their status considering they’re probably
taking to obstacles a bit sooner than planned and if they were to win then it’s
a Graded victory so no better place to lose that maiden title. He ran at Ascot
first where he didn’t jump very well and was a well beaten 3rd that
day then after he ran back at Chetlenham on trials day where he travelled well
in a race where KING ROLAND looked to be the winner turning in, but HARRY
SENIOR took the spoils. So despite this lad weakening, I’m trying to say I
think it was a good race.
He’s going to be a further forward than lots of Novice’s at
the start of the season and while that last run over the middle trip hints that
they think he’ll stay, I’d love to see him back at 2m on testing ground. I’d
also like to see him run on some more typical National Hunt going because that’s
a big unknown at the moment, whether he is bad ground dependant. However that
transpires, he’ll win races this season for sure and I’m quite excited about
watching him progress although he was so good on debut we might want to catch
him fresh
IT SURE IS
Nicky Henderson – Mrs J Donnelly – 5/6yo
Ok so you’ll known I’m a bit of a Graded snob, but that doesn’t
mean I don’t look for a few potential diamonds in the rough a bit lower down and
this horse is that to an absolute T. There were multiple instances where pre
season either Nicky himself or stable staff hinted that this horse is one to
watch out for the season and I can’t believe after his debut, when beaten 2l by
SEVARANO getting 5lbs, he’s ended up with an OR of 125. He was keen that day
and didn’t get the best run. SEVERANO finished the season a 135 rated horse so that
might read as though IT SURE IS isn’t far off where he should be in relation to
that horse but how he’s not stepped forward is beyond me although his point win
hasn’t really worked out either.
Still the horse clearly has ability and must show a bit at
home but he was twice beaten favourite after that rules debut. He’s had his
wind tinkered (haven’t they all) but then all but pulled up on his first run
after that so I’d suspect he’s had a niggle and I hope they’ve ironed that out.
He might just want some better ground, although he handled that Good To Soft at
Newbury fine, so I’m happy to make a few excuses for him and I reckon he’ll
hack up in a handicap off this kind of mark
L’AIR DU VENT
Colin Tizzard – Brocade Racing – 6/7yo
There’s certainly a touch of the WHITE MOON’S about this
horse, so I think we’ll need to tread carefully. That said, I would expect this
lad is capable of winning off his opening mark of 131 but he’s clearly had
issues. Colin Tizzard was quite vocal at the start of last season about just
how exciting this horse was and although beaten on his debut at Cheltenham in a
Class 2 he showed some ability. He was nothing other than poor in the Hyde
Novices’ Hurdle but that came on slower ground and he had a wind op following
that. The latter is an indication that he didn’t show up in that race but of
course there is an area of concern about his wind. They applied the tongue tie
for his next race where he ran just an OK race but that was back at 2m and I’m
sure they knew that was a run for his opening mark.
He’s retained his Novices’ status for another season which I
think is going prove the key to us getting something from this horse as he’s
going to be much more forward this term. In fact, I heard Colin Tizzard say there
was a mix up with this horse and I think HARRY SENIOR, which led to L’AIR DU
VENT being sent to Keith Dalgleish’s yard by mistake. The other loose line to
remember is that he was in with every chance of beating SHISHKIN in his point
to point so that’s red hot form. A full season and summer with Colin Tizzard
will stand him in very good stead for the season ahead, I’m not sure if they
will look at handicaps first up but you’d hope they do. It would have to be a
slightly tentative punt first time up because of the wind, but should they take
off the tongue tie I wouldn’t be upset and he does run better when fresh it
seems.
BLACKBOW
Willie Mullins – Roaringwater Syndicate – 7/8yo
I think plenty of people might have drawn a line through
this horse by now but I’m not prepared to just sweep him under the carpet yet.
Yes he missed a season, yes he failed to win a race last term but he was well
on his way to give CAPTAIN GUINNESS 3lbs and a beating when he fell at Navan in
December in first time headgear and despite that horse arguably having more progression
in him than this lad it’s solid form. Far too keen after when beaten at odds on
yet again before heading back to Navan where he just didn’t look overly keen to
win that day.
I wonder whether they might try and step him up in trip. While
he might not settle off a slower pace I’m not sure he’s really raced in top
level company since hurdling but that might help him. Plus the fact he had missed
that season maybe he was just a good deal further behind than we thought he was
so I think with a clear run into this season he’s bound to pick up some races. Now
with his age you have to wonder if they might stick him over fences now and the
season over hurdles was purely a comeback and learn effort. Whatever they
decide to do with him I’m interested, and if he were to be sent chasing he’ll
still retain that Novice Hurdle status and I’m sure at some point that can be
exploited. I also think on a bit of nicer ground he’ll be better
CHASERS
Paul Nicholls –
Owners Group – 7/8yo
The first of the second season novice chasers in this
feature is GETAWAY TRUMP who is already a 150’s horse. Given his experience
last season, he will be more forward than most rivals he meets (especially
early in the season) and of course he’s an ex pointer too. His two runs at
Cheltenham hinted that might not be his best track but if you consider he
travelled strongly into both those races but just couldn’t find much up the
hill I think it’s fair to say he didn’t completely disappoint. I also think
he’s going to shine over further and I’d expect him to progress into a
potential staying chaser this season. That said he’s had his wind tinkered and
this forecast is on the assumption they can get that sorted
Like all these second season novices’ he’s got an advantage
early in the season so best not to get over excited too soon as I do think
there are some nice races available to him as time goes on. Given his current
mark, if he were to start the season off slowly (remember he wore a tongue tie
first time at Kempton when last season) I think we could maybe forgive him and
any reduction in his OR would make him an eye-catching runner if going in a
Novice Handicap. On that note he only needs to come down 6lbs to secure a place
in the Novices’ Handicap Chase on Day 1 (providing that’s not the race
dropped), but that’s an ambitious season long target, even by my standards.
Hopefully he starts the season off well though, and I really
hope he’s a bit braver now as I’ve often commented on how easy Harry Cobden
seems to go on him at his obstacles
BEAKSTOWN
Dan Skelton – Bryan Drew – 7/8yo
So once again BEAKSTOWN gets a mention but this time in the Second
Season Novices’ category which I wasn’t expecting. He really didn’t look to
finish out his races last season which typically suggests a wind issue and I’m
concerned now that this isn’t going to subside. However, he’s better than a 139
horse. He’s got another season as a Novice now so with the experience and age
under his belt I expect him to win a couple of races at least this season.
Now it’s going back a while now but this horse stayed very
well as a Novice Hurdler so despite him not seeing out his races I’d be
interested to see if they try him up to 3m this season. Potentially he might
settle into a more comfortable pace for the majority of those races and that
might in turn help him see out the latter stages. However it plays out, this
horse must be treated with caution, but in the back of most peoples minds is that
this horse is surely capable of much better than his current mark but this
feels like the season for redemption as I’d start to worry after another year,
and then stepping into open company
GALVIN
Gordon Elliott – R A Bartlett – 6/7yo
Runner up in the Novices’ Handicap Chase on Day 1 at Cheltenham
meant he ended the season without a win over fences but he has been seen twice
this summer and has won both those starts. He keeps his Novices’ status for the
season so where they send him from now on will be very interesting. It’s also
worth pointing out early on that he made a big mistake at the first at Cheltenham
so it was a serious effort to finish where he did (Davy even dropped the reins)
He started off at Galway last October when he fell 4 out but
with a chance as the race was yet to unfold. You’d think now he’ll be headed to
test himself in Graded company and that’s where keeping an eye on this lad will
be crucial I feel. If he comes up short at that level then there’s plenty of
time to ready him for another bold show at Cheltenham as don’t forget he
finished 6th in the Ballymore the season prior after a horrible
mistake ruining any chance to see how close he might have finished. Whether he
can make it to Grade 1 level I’m not sure, but as mentioned, keep an eye on how
he runs over the winter because he could well be a plot for a Handicap come March
but I suppose connections will want to test how good he can be outside of
Handicaps, and rightly so
WALK AWAY
Henry De Bromhead – Robcour – 7/8yo
An impressive point and rules debut winner, WALK AWAY ran
fairly well at Aintree behind CHAMP when I was informed he was over more as a
travelling partner for CHRIS’S DREAM. He went on to run at Punchestown that
season where I was still forgiving although slightly underwhelmed.
The start of last season I thought he’s blown his cover by
running so well behind FAUGHEEN on chasing debut but he was so poor after that
when sent off just 3/1 against ALLAHO & EASY GAME I suspected a wind issue.
He sported the tongue tie for his next assignment where again he faced ALLAHO
and he was keen, rank OK but didn’t quite see out his race again. By this point
I’m wondering whether he mightn’t be as good as I was hoping.
However, his OR is down to 136 over fences. I’d be staggered
if he’s not better than that mark. He’s got the season under his belt in terms
of experience, and while there might be an underlying issue which needs to be
resolved, any wind op would excite me and I think he could pick up a Novice
Handicap Chase this season without much fuss. The caveat with that is the new
crop coming through as plenty of those are better than their hurdle marks, so
maybe if he has a slower start to the season and comes good in the spring that
might not be a bad thing, and that mark might just be protected or even
dropped. It’s worth noting that 2 of his three chase starts last season he ran
to 138 and 140 RPR’s.
CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
Nicky Henderson – JP McManus – 6/7yo
This horse reminds me a bit of FINE BRUNELLO who is a year
his junior and now with Enda Bolger (this horse may be worth keep a loose eye
on too). Not just are they both JP and greys, they both offered glimpses of a future
proper chaser while hurdling. It’s far to say this lad was woeful last season,
like I’d struggle to find an encouraging clip but the market moves behind him I
feel paint a picture that we’re not seeing all there is with this horse.
On chasing debut at Cheltenham he was horrendously weak drifting
from 11/4 out to 5/1 but he was much more drastic on the machine. He was poor
from the get go and his chasing efforts after didn’t excite until he showed a
bit of spark at Sandwon behind ITCHY FEET. At that point it looked like a step
up in trip would sort him, and I half expected him to come back over hurdles at
the festival. He was instead sent off joint
favourite for the Kim Muir where he ended up 7th in first time cheek
pieces. He was given a patient ride, and probably too patient as he was left
with a lot to do unless he was a stone ahead of his mark. Clearly he’s going to
be a force in staying chases this season, his mark not being raised because of
how he ran at Cheltenham might work out well for him and I wonder whether they
will have another handicap target this season where we just need to work out
when they’re going to try.
A race like the Ladbrokes Trophy probably could suit him and
we know Nicky Henderson has done well in the race before but I’m not sure JP is
so keen on it. I can only think of REGAL ENCORE as a placed runner of his. That’s
the sort of thought process I’d be thinking for a horse like him, second season
Novice chaser proper, and a horse who stays well by the looks of it. (As a side
note ON THE BLIND SIDE will be banded as his Hennessy horse this season I think
and with good reason currently 4lbs lower than when sent off just 8/1 but pulled
up last season)
Wherever they plot him this term I’d be keen to watch him progress,
and while he wouldn’t rate a confident horse to be supporting, there’s got to
be races to be won with him
MISSED LAST SEASON
BRIGHT FORECAST
Looked an RSA contender for last season, this years’ renewal
might not be any easier in terms of depth but Ben Paulings yard might not have
been at their best last term so although a setback is never ideal, it might just
afford this horse to be ahead of his rivals and he still could be an RSA horse
NEXT DESTINATION
A similar horse to BRIGHT FORECAST in that he looks a proper
staying chaser. Willie Mullins has let him go which is a worry but Paul Nicholls
will be able to get something out of him and he used to like to target the NH
Chase so that could be an option for him
HOSTILE
Was on my ones to watch last seaons but we didn’t see him. He’s
a very good horse so as soon as he’s seen on a racecourse I’m going to be
excited about what he can do and I’d forgive him his first couple of starts
too. I think he could be a proper horse who might slip under the radar
FELIX DESJY
So good at Aintree but that confirmed he might just want to
get things his own way in front. That could work for a while in Ireland while Novice
Chasing but I’d worry about him in the Grade 1’s although he’s clearly a very
good horse
SAMS PROFILE
Kind of the lively outsider a couple of seasons ago at
Cheltenham but he only had a slight issue last term and he’s another staying
chaser who will have plenty of big races left in him this season
GET IN THE QUEUE
Good bumper winner at Newbury and Noel Fehily’s last ever
ride. Harry Fry is often careful of his horses but I’d hope this lad gets a good
run at it this season and I think he’ll pick up some nice races
Actually missed the last two seasons but looked to have bags of potential and his Grade 1 Punchestown win coming on better ground that he appeared to want opened up a whole new world for him. Looked an Arkle type a couple of years back but no getting away from that lack of racing
OTHERS TO MENTION
PIC D’ORHY
Paul Nicholls has long raved about this horse, as have
plenty of people in the game but we know that this trainer is the master of a
slow burner and is the best there is when sending a horse over fences. That is
the plan this season for PIC D’ORHY and while it’s hard to pinpoint if he’s an
Arkle or Marsh type, the former race is suited to a blend of speed and stamina
as has that prestige about it which makes me lean towards that at this stage. Long
road ahead but I can see him lighting up the track this season
CHAMPAGNESUPEROVER
Weak in the market on bumper debut at Ayr but absolutely
bolted up. Disappointing beaten favourite after that in a typically good
Newbury Bumper but maybe ground was quick enough that day and he looks a nice
horse to go Novice Hurdling with this season
SAINT ROI
Held in high regard for some time now and was banded about by
a few good names that he was their supreme horse for last season. Flopping on
debut put paid to that hype but he won well after then hacked up in the Country
Hurdle. Albeit getting weight from ARAMON, the form has been franked and with
usual progression you can see why people are tipping him for the Champion
Hurdle even this far out
THE GLANCING QUEEN
Missed most of last season and almost seemed a token gesture
to run in the Champion Bumper for a second year. She’s part of that ENVOI ALLEN
winning bumper form, she won well at Cheltenham before that where Alan King was
already talking about sending her over hurdles. She’s had an issue but I’d
expect her to take top rank amongst the Mares’ Novice Hurdlers this season, on
theses shores at the very least
KLASSICAL DREAM
2019 Supreme winner who didn’t step forward last season
while entering open company. Still a horse with a huge engine to do what he did
in that Supreme and win so whether it’s hurdles or more likely chasing this
season, he’s worth giving another chance
ANGELS BREATH
Looked a smart Novice chaser but suffered a very serious tendon injury in which he could have lost his life. He'll be sidelined for a while and may not be seen this season but no doubting he has a huge engine
GALLYHILL
£450,000 sales topper at the Goffs UK January Sales to Mike
Grech
KESKONRISK
£370,000 purchase at the Goffs UK January Sales to Mike Grech
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