We kick things off on Friday with FAROUK D’ALENE starting his career over hurdles and I’m so pleased to see him trying this trip from the off. He got away with it in bumpers at the minimum trip because of his class but he didn’t look the quickest. He was a convincing winner in his point with the quickest time on that day so he’s one to look forward to over these kinds of trips and over obstacles. GRANGECLARE NATIVE also Gigginstown and Elliott was going ok in a Maiden hurdle earlier this month when falling but that came on good ground. He won a bumper on soft in which he beat a now 133 rated hurdler so that’s steady enough form. Well beaten on his first start over hurdles last season back in February but that was a Grade 2 and over 2m so I suspect they think a bit about him and he’s at least got race fitness on his side. Noel Meade sends two in here also but both look a bit short of winning this
13:15 – MARES NOVICES’ HURDLE (G3) – 2M ½F
Tidy enough looking Mares Novices race here with ANNA BUNINA coming out again after disappointing at Cheltenham. I say disappointing because plenty expected more from her on those terms but I think she’s slightly overrated on her current mark of 131. BRAVE WAY goes for HDB, Rachel Blackmore and Alexander and while she steps back in trip here she was a ready winner last time out and looks to be a major player. QUEENS BROOK would have been on many peoples horses to follow lists following her 3rd in the Champion Bumper but while I appreciate she might have needed the run last time out, she slightly underwhelmed. Admittedly it was hands and heels and she didn’t really look in danger but that tempers my enthusiasm for now at least. POLITESSE is a half siter to DON POLI and has earned her place in this race off the back of two nice enough wins. This is a step up in class and with that family line you’d think she’ll improve for a step up in future but this may have been a target since last term given she’ll be in open company after this.
13:50 – WKD HURDLE (G2) – 2M ½F
I suppose all eyes on ABACADABRAS here but followers will know I’ll have one on the other Gigginstown runner, SIXSHOOTER. 3lbs splits the pair on adjusted figures and my guy has race fitness on his side so while I think he wants a bit further than this trip, I expect him to put in a big performance. Supreme runner up ABACADABRAS will rightly head the market and even back to his bumper form he’s been a top horse throughout his career. This will be a stepping stone on to warmer tasks but this isn’t a walkover by any means. That said, you’d expect him to take this if he’s going to be a Champion Hurdle contender. Henry De Bromhead saddles two here with Rachel on board Triumph Hurdle runner up ASPIRE TOWER. It’s said every season, but 4yos going into open company can be found wanting and really he will need to have improved to take this. Paul Townend picks up the ride on the stables other runner, JASON THE MILITANT, who beat BEACON EDGE in a Grade 2 last spring which is decent form. He’s had a flat spin in prep for this so while on these terms he’s got to have improved too, he might just have done so and the more ran the better for him.
15:00 – BEGINNERS CHASE – 2M 3 ½F
ENVOI ALLEN has been given the best part of a walkover here and while JANUARY JETS has some warm point form, he’s been disappointing under rules. ENVOI sports a first time tongue-tie here which is interesting enough (did same with SAMCRO last year), but make no mistake, he should win this in a canter
16:10 – BUMPER – 2M ½F
5 runner affair here and I’m not expecting fireworks but ON EAGLES WINGS is giving 7lbs to most of his rivals here with 4lbs because of age and an extra 3lb because of winning two bumpers. But, he has form behind FERNY HOLLOW, and his last two bumper wins were decent enough. The last was visually impressive while the time before he beat another nice horse in STATTLER. I’d be keen to see what price he is here. ANY GIVEN SUNDAY won with more to offer the last day and has FELIX YONGER in the family. CHEMICAL ENERGY for Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd will be popular based on those names alone but I wasn’t overly impressed with his bumper debut so I’m hoping he’s short enough to make ON EAGLES WINGS playable at the price despite his weight difference
WETHERBY
13:00 – NOVICES’ CHASE – 3M
SHAN BLUE was so impressive on his chase debut he’s bound to be short odds to follow up here even though he’s trying the trip for the first time. Second season novice HOLD THE NOTE is officially rated the same but gets 6lbs so with experience on his side he might just be the one to beat, especially as he was only just beaten in a Grade 2 over this trip last season. He holds an entry in the Ladbrokes Trophy so maybe this is more of a prep run towards that. I K BRUNEL was second behind COOLANLY over 3f shorter earlier this month and the step up in trip will bring about improvement. He does need to jump a bit better but add depth to this race for sure. SNOW LEOPARDESS completes the line up and ran OK behind THE BUTCHER SAID last time out but shouldn’t be good enough to take this.
14:45 – JUVENILE HURDLE (LISTED) – 2M
LONGCLAW & DUFFLE COAT both run for Gordon Elliott here and with Richard Johnson on the former you’d suggest he’s the first string. Narrowly held on the last day but is 3 from 3 now and that last run was his first after being gelded. LANGER DAN took this race last year for the Skeltons and they run CABOT CLIFFS who sported a hood earlier this month on his hurdle bow. Won that nicely enough despite being keen so you’d hope this race being a step up in class might allow him to settle better so he’s got a chance. SOLDIER ON PARADE carries the only penalty in this race courtesy of his win last time out which made it 3 on the spin at Market Rasen. He reversed the form with HICONIC despite giving weight away which shows how this horse has progressed, but also maybe how he’s been suited to a right handed track (0/3 left handed). Those wins all came on good ground too. HICONIC re-opposes again here on 3lb better terms and seems to struggle a bit in a faster paced race. This won’t be any slower so despite the weight received her form is all on good ground so she’s vulnerable. Alan King runs MIDNIGHTS LEGACY who was beaten favourite (joint) on his only hurdle start. He did race here latest so this seems to have been in the back of the mind but he will need to travel and jump a lot better to figure. FIRST IMPRESSION is the last to get a mention but was the other joint favourite in that race here at Wetherby. He was just as good as any of the flat runners and better than most so if the ground didn’t get too soft he’ll have a chance
15:55 – NOVICES’ HURDLE – 2M
Champion Bumper 4th THIRD TIME LUCKI was an impressive winner on his hurdle debut a couple of weeks ago but it was a dire field so not a great deal else was expected. This looks a tiny bit deeper but still shouldn’t be a problem despite carrying the winners penalty. EWOOD PARK goes for Olly Murphy and the McNeills after a spin in a bumper earlier this month. That will have blown away the cobwebs and he stayed on nicely for a horse who was quietly ridden. HEART OF A LION goes for Alan King and JP McManus but he’s been absent for over a year since his bumper debut. In fairness he hacked up that day but we know now that he beat very little (runner up is now 97 rated hurdler).
UTTOXETER
12:50 – NOVICES’ HURDLE – 2M 4F
GET IN THE QUEUE looked a proper sort in his bumpers and while he missed last season but it was only minor. He’ll be so good from this middle trip upwards and he looks to have found a quiet enough opener here
14:35 – BUMPER – 2M
You don’t get too many bumpers in the middle of a racecard but Harry Fry is set to unleash FISHKOV under rules and although he was a runner up in his point, the level of that form looks OK ( winner of his point was second over 2m4f at Punchestown Wednesday) and you’d think he’ll be going hurdling after this. With that thought in mind, while I think he’ll still take this, he might just improve for the run. BABY BEN is a full brother to stablemate ASK BEN so you’d hope the yard know his type quite well while LANDEN CALLING & PIRATE OF THE SEA are related to some OK types.
15:10 – BEGINNERS’ CHASE – 2M
This 8 runner race looks a pretty good standard with 5 of the runners 130+ rated already. GUMBALL is a free going sort who paid the price of a decent field last time out but the same could be true here. The assignment is easier and that freshness may have gone so he’s probably the one to beat. KING ROLAND disappointed slightly at Cheltenham when looking the winner. Transpires he had a fracture to the pelvis so he can easily be forgiven and travelled so strongly into that race. He need his first start last term in a decent novice hurdle race at Newbury and he will be better over the middle trip so this might just be a warm up for bigger targets in the future but make no mistake, this horse has bundles of potential and oozes class but we’ll need to see how he goes following that injury really. GETAWAY FRED, BOLD PLAN & CHEDDLETON will all be better chasers than they were hurdlers so that pushed them into the 140’s potential bracket. All in all this race will turn out to be informative going forward and will produce plenty of winners
BILLY THE SQUID – 5 hurdle runs under his belt but with an
OR of just 107 it would be a shocking renewal if he was the one to beat
BOURBALI – Second on very quick ground last month but from a
family of 5 who raced under rules and haven’t managed a single win between them
HECTOR DE SIVOLA – Ran a bit better than his losing margin
suggests on debut where he had significant trouble early on and was a bit
babyish. No doubt he’ll come on for that run but he might just need this too
and not sure he’ll be up to this level
HELL RED – Standout entrant who should relish this ground
and looked a very fast horse in his French race back in March. Will be short
but clearly the one they all have to try and get close to
JERSEY GREY – modest flat runner who has been well beaten in
each start
LUSTLEIGH – Better bred than most in here and one to watch
on debut in a weak enough looking race bar the fav
PHOENIX AQUILUS – sports a tongue tie which is a massive
turn off and maybe wants a bit slower ground to show his best
SANDYBURG – Wouldn’t scream out on breeding but his Dam won
a bumper on quick ground
THE IMPOSTER – Had a spin on the flat around here last month
but was a big price and well beaten
Summary – Boring as it is here from a punting perspective,
HELL RED should absolutely destroy this field and I’m struggling to see any
threats. At entry stage there were a few names who might have given him
something to think about but he deserves to be short odds on here and he’ll win
14:12 – Handicap Hurdle – 2m 11y
REMILUC – Huge run in the Betfair Hurdle and this horse is
an absolute warrior. 11yo now and tends to need the run first time up but some
boy and goes on anything
DEAR SIRE – Won earlier this summer and now 9lbs higher, but
useful claimer on board and the drier the ground the better
CHAMPAGNE CITY – Nice horse who hasn’t been seen to his best
for a while now so any confidence would have to be taken on trust. Tried fences
last season but now back hurdling he’s off an attractive mark and the ground
will suit but he’s not known for running well first time up
LE LIGERIEN – Goes on all ground but not a great record
fresh. Mark is 7 higher than when last winning a handicap and Richard Johnson
is 1/8 on him when wining at 2/11f but only a 7yo
THE RUSSIAN DOYEN – Hasn’t hurdled since early 2018 but 134
as a mark looks workable back at 2m so not without a chance
FAIR MOUNTAIN – Good ground merchant who has twice run good
seconds off this mark. Pulled up on his comeback run in first time cheekpieces
but usually flops after a break so with the headgear back off he’s got a chance
if the ground doesn’t have too much ease in it
DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO – 2 from 3 on good ground but handles a
bit of give underfoot. Has fallen the last twice and hasn’t really scaled the
heights expected of him. Down to 130 which is reality is just 9lbs lighter than
his opening hurdle mark earned almost 2 years ago and the closest he’s finished
to a rival since is 14l. Still an underlying feeling he can win a nice race, so
whether they want it to be this I’m not sure but interesting with Jnr up top
STIMULATING SONG – One win from 6 hurdle starts but not
shown me enough to suggest this mark is a winnable one but was fancied earlier
this month and showed enough to say he’ll be better for it and the ground
should be fine. Sam Twiston retains the ride and just a 5yo
GUNNERY – Lightly raced 7yo who needs a career best to win
off this mark, but if you can put a line through his run this summer where he
finished lame and ignore the penultimate effort where he had a short break
between runs then he might just be one of the more likely winners but clearly
not straight forward
RIVER BRAY – Comes here fresh from
a wind op and best form on this type of ground so the fact he’s running off
just a 2lb higher mark than when last seen means he deserves a second look
FRIEND OR FOE – Another fresh from wind surgery and his mark
of 125 is very likely to be under appreciating him. Not been seen for a while
so despite having a setback he’s likely to have improved in himself and if
there’s plenty of good in the ground then you can see why he’s the one they
have to beat. Course form too albeit when 1/25
Summary – Tidy looking race to be honest but too many in
with chances to have any confidence. CHAMPAGNE CITY doesn’t go so well fresh so
line through him, RIVER BRAY might just find one too good and GUNNERY is a
concern with Henderson this time of year. FAIR MOUNTAIN & FRIEND OR FOE,
both of who have likely had this race in mind for some time, might just be the
best of the field but GUNNERY could win by 10l or pull up, STIMULATING SONG can
run well and DITHEYLEAVEUOUTTO often draws a second look from me and with Jnr on
board it lures me. I’d be wanting to sit back and watch this race as I think
there will be plenty of winners from this race going forward
14:47 – Handicap Chase – 2m 7f 131y
BALLYOPTIC – So impressive in this race last year and he’s
won the Silver Trophy at the track too so it’s clearly one of his favourites.
Career high mark now of 163 (achieved 162 over hurdles in 2017) so of course
this is a big ask and I think on this better ground it might not be quite the
stamina test he needs but he’ll be there or there abouts
BRAVE EAGLE – Likes good ground and was third in this in
2018 but off a 12lb lower mark
SECRET INVESTOR – No problems fresh, ground will be fine for
him and won here on his only start at the track. Has had a wind op this summer
but does need a career best effort of this mark. Chance of doing just that
though with everything in his favour
BOLDMERE – up 22lbs since Last December for two handicap
chase wins. Fell in the Grade 2 Towton at Wetherby when looking like the winner
so while this is the toughest assignment yet I’m not sure he’s stopped
improving but his mark looks about fair now although has Richard Johnson on top
STEELY ADDITION – Has won here like many others and goes on
any ground but I think he’ll need this run and his mark still might need to
drop a bit
POTTERMAN – Comes here off the back of three summer spins
and won last time out. Any ease in the ground would hamper his chances but if
it’s good ground he’s got a squeak
CAPTAIN CHAOS – Underwhelmed in this race last year off a
7lb lower mark and really wants a stiffer test in ground and trip
SOME CHAOS – Last seen over fences in the Ladbroke trophy
but hasn’t shown me enough to suggest he can defy this mark unless the ground
was good all over
DJANGO DJANGO – Has won here over hurdles and acts on any
ground but another who needs a career best effort
SEDDON – Has won a bumper on soft but wants good to soft at
worst however I think this is quite a smart entry. As he’s slap bang on bottom
weight and shapes as though he might just get this trip. Now there are some
much stronger stayers in the field but off this featherweight, if he’s going to
get the trip it will be now and he might just enjoy a steadier gallop
Summary – This race looks open to a good number of horses
but I think SEDDON might just be a big enough price to lure me in. He gets
loads of weight and I wouldn’t want to pick between BALLYOPTIC, BOLDMERE or
SECRET INVESTOR who will all be vying for favouritism and all should be close a
the finish
15:22 – Novices’ Chase – 2m 3f 98y
FIDDLERONTHEROOF – Strong form with his second behind THYME
HILL in the Pesian War but looked to me to be a horse who needs to get his toe
in so I’m not sure this ground will suit. Fences will see a significant
improvement in him though I just wonder whether this is really his trip and
ground so would want to watch him here with a view to having him onside in the
future
FUSIL RAFFLES – I’ve no doubt he’ll end up the best of these
over fences, but I’m also aware that he might want this better ground. So he’s
got it here, no excuses and I think the step up in trip is going to bring about
further improvement. The one to beat but will be priced accordingly
GRAND SANCY – Lost his Novice status in February so I think
they would have like to try him at Aintree. With that in mind I suspect they’ll
have thought about this race as an opportunity to get a nice win out before he
faces open company so I do think he’ll be ready and raring to go. Might be a
percentage call at the prices and he’ll handle this ground plus he won here
first time up in 2018
LONGHOUSE SALE – Really does want good ground. No doubting
he’s been impressive this term so if he does run (ground dependant) then he’ll
be there for a long way
PAINT THE DREAM – Second Season Novice Chaser who was
probably flattered in the Dipper coming second after CHAMP fell which is the
reason for his OR being so high. Couldn’t have him in this at all regardless of
how well the yard are going
Summary – I probably won’t play in this race because I think
FUSIL should win but he’s got no juice about his price. FIDDLER is capable but
I think he’ll be one for another day while GRAND SANCY screams out to me that
on this occasion he might be the one to beat. I’m sure he’ll be ready, he’s got
good graded experience behind him over fences so at the prices I’m very tempted
but holding off for now
15:57 – Handicap Hurdle – 2m 3f 100y
SAINT SONNET – Harry Cobdens choice and just the two starts
for Nicholls both of which came over fences last spring. Has the potential to
have improved plenty and the better ground I think will suit
SIR PSYCHO – Bryan Carver has won on him but we’ve seen
before this horse is highly strung. Mark now looks high enough but that
warrants him being thrown into this kind of race and I think he’s going to
enjoy this longer trip if he can settle
KALONDRA – Hasn’t hurdled since 2017 but does like quick
ground
DOUBLY CLEVER – back to back wins at Newton Abbot but up
13lbs for those
LIGHTLY SQUEEZE – Not sure this would be first choice this
weekend and mark looked too high now
FLASH THE STEEL – Won this race last year on very different
ground but arguable will prefer this faster surface. Trainer said this was the
aim and although 8lbs higher should run well
FIX SUN – Had a wind op after 1/6f defeat in a first time
tongue tie. Could be off a light mark but those breathing issues are cause for
concern
MARIO DE PAIL – 100/1 poke in the supreme last year. Seems
to want slower ground and not obviously well treated
NOTRE PARI – Sure to be sent over fences following this but
I think he can run well off this mark before doing so
DINO VELVET – 4 handicap runs around this mark all on good
ground but enough to suggest he’s held for win purposes
TEA CLIPPER – I quite like this horse and wasn’t beaten far
on his second handicap start. This is another level of test but I’m keen to see
him progress this season and can’t wait until he jumps a fence
KHAGE – First run for new yard but all runs last spring came
on slower ground that he would have liked. Mark of 133 looks about right
COTSWOLD WAY – Another not obviously well handicapped so
ignored
HOMETOWN BOY – Well beaten at the end of the season but that
was in defeat to a smart horse so not all hope is lost but might take some time
before he wins off this mark
FLINCK – Beaten favourite on his last start in February but
it was on slow enough ground. Mark looks workable to me and I think he’s got a
big run in him
BEAUFORT WEST – Two wins after a wind op and he’s a horse I
know they think is better than he’d shown prior to that. Maybe wants more give
underfoot but an interesting runner
CASWELL BAY – Twice beaten here in the past but bumped into
one last term. 128 looks a high enough mark though
PUSH THE TEMPO – Hasn’t won for two years but his current
mark looks to be manageable and ground should suit
Summary – Big field handicap but there will be plenty of
future winners in this field. As for this race itself I do like the chance of
FLINCK and he’s the one I’d put up as my main hope. FIX SUN can run well as can
TEA CLIPPER. NOTRE PARI might be better when sent chasing and last years winner
FLASH THE STEEL can certainly cope with the 8lb higher mark on better ground
than last year
16:32 – Handicap Chase – 2m 3f 98y
CRIEVEHILL – Big ask to win off this high a mark but not
impossible
CASABLANCA MIX – Will enjoy these conditions but this is her
toughest assignment for some time
MARRCUDJA – Beaten twice in this race off 10lb and 11lb
lower marks so hard to fancy
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES – Goes well fresh, ground will be fine and
has won here before so lots to like and this mark is workable
RIVER WYLDE – Last ran off this mark in November 18 but
suffered a serious injury when falling but had the race sewn up. Capable off
this number now but long layoff to overcome. Still a horse I really rate so for
me could be overpriced but will just be nice to see him back
MONT DES AVALOIRS – 3rd
season Novice Chaser so it’s quite telling they’ve targeted this race. Wouldn’t
be for me at the price he is and I’d be more interested in him back in Novice
company
GARDE LE VICTOIRE – Ground no issue and mark manageable for
this old boy but may just need his comeback run now
AZZURI – Hard to fancy in this company and think his mark
needs to come down a bit
THE UNIT – Unraced for almost two years but his mark is just
down 4lbs. Fairly consistent on his day but entitled to need this although the
ground could well suit
THE BAY BIRCH – Won this last year on soft ground off an 8lb
higher mark. Good chance based on that alone
PUNCHES CROSS – First run for new yard but mark could be
underestimating him. No headgear for this race so maybe something further down
the line is planned and usually needs a run
DOITFORTHEVILLAGE – Mark coming down but ran poorly off an
even lower number of hurdles last season so hard to think he’ll be coming here
in any sort of form
PINK EYED PEDRO – Ran a corker the last day but this is more
competitive and ground needs to be quick for him
Summary – This looks a pretty open affair but
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES looks to have leading claims. THE BAY BIRCH, winner of this 12
months ago, looks to have been plotted nicely while it’s great to see RIVER
WYLDE back on course. THE UNIT also comes back from a long layoff but equally
looks to have an outside chance if in any sort of form
14:10 4-Y-O Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Class 2) 2m 11y
RUNNING D’OR – Ex French runner who has won twice over hurdles from 7 attempts so doesn’t lack in experience but would have to be well above average to defy this opening mark of 139
LANGER DAN – 6th in the Fred Winter off a 1lb lower mark so with normal progression he could be up to landing a pot this season, however I’d expect him to be vulnerable to something with a bit more wiggle room but he always runs his race
BLACKO – Pulled up when sent off joint favourite for the Fred Winter and really you’d have to just strike a line through that run as no real excuse came up after. He’s down 2lbs so on that note he’s got to be of interest
THE PINK’N – Ran behind BLACKO a couple of times last season yet faces him here off a 1lb inferior mark. Enough to worry me about his chance
THYME WHITE – Dropped 3lbs from him Fred Winter effort where he was a well held 12th but he’s another who I don’t think showed his best that day and although he may benefit from the run (runs without headgear too), I’d think he’s capable of a much higher mark this season
FRASER ISLAND – Has come down 6lbs in his last two runs from 135 to 129 which reflects how tricky it is to accurately rate these 4yos but interesting to see how SIR CANFORD runs Wednesday
GROUP STAGE – Closely matched with THYME WHITE on these figures and might just be under appreciated
GOA LIL – Connections took this race last year with TORPILLO. Another who ties in with THYME WHITE but not sure he’s up to this unless he’s improved over the summer
GOOBINATOR – Northern raider but hard to say he’s well treated on form although has had wind op and recent prep run for this on the flat
VORASHANN – Carries a 6lb penalty but still 8lbs well in so not hard to make a case for and bound to be popular
OLYMPIC HONOUR – 1lb out of the handicap but this horse is very interesting. He won back in December 2019 which was his last effort in this discipline and despite being keen that day he won well enough. Before this he was going well before unseating against LANGER DAN in a race where he was sent off favourite. Might just want better than soft ground, but if the forecast can be trusted the ground should be OK. Officially 17lbs lighter than when facing LANGER DAN as mentioned before so one to seriously consider, especially with the normal progression he should have made after 10 months off hurdling competitively
HASANKEY – Another northern raider who is 2lbs out the handicap and been well held in three handicaps this summer. Beat GOOBINATOR on soft getting 6lbs last season but that was back at this trip of 2m whereas his last three runs were over 2m4f twice and 3m respectively. They’ve reduced his mark well if nothing else and lively outsider I feel
MASKADA – A big-priced winner last December when beating PALLADIUM who gave her 7lbs that day and is now a 130’s horse. That line isn’t the only piece which could give you confidence as she ran here in the Grade 1 Finale after that and wasn’t disgraced. Bad ground seems to be key to her
Summary – Nice race to kick things off and often you’ll see one very well handicapped but that’s easier to know after the race. Given their age this field really are hard to get a handle on how well treated they are but OLYMPIC HONOUR will be a reasonable double figure price which is enough to make him of interest to me. THYME WHITE should be better this season than last and VORASHANN being 8lb well in probably should be the most likely winner. BLACKO can be forgiven his last run and given he was sent off favourite for the Fred Winter makes him of automatic interest but he’ll be priced accordingly
BORN IN BORRIS – The only runner shouldering the 6lb penalty but was a very impressive point winner before that hurdle win in March and over this sort of trip could prove quite useful
GENIAL HAWKSTONE – Ran OK in a couple of bumpers up to now but likely not up to this
KILMINGTON ROSE – Bumped into a very smart mare in her bumper and gave that runner a stone so to only be beaten 5 and a half lengths would read as arguably the best form for this race
MAC KAYLA – Keen sort who has shown some ability but maybe not enough to be involved here
OSCA LOCA – Dual point winner but another who shouldn’t be up to this
PARIS DIXIE – Picked up a bumper in February 2019 so taken time to get back on track so likely to need this run
VAIN GIRL – Hard to fancy on her point runs
WILD ROMANCE – Half sister to BOSS MAN FRED also with Dan Skelton but her point second isn’t the best form coming into this but they hit the ground running with BOSS MAN and they’ll know how to get the best from her
YORSEXYANDUKNOWIT – unraced 7yo would be hard to predict but ignored unless the market speaks
Summary – I’d whittle this down to three runners who are BORN IN BORRIS, KILMINGTON ROSE & WILD ROMANCE. The former looks a nice type and if she wasn’t carrying the penalty might be the one to take my fancy but KILMINGTON ROSE will enjoy this step up in trip and has solid form behind a well-regarded horse so gets the vote (price dependant for punting). WILD ROMANCE is interesting given connections did well with BOSS MAN FRED from the off
15:15 Persian War Novices' Hurdle (Class 1)(Grade 2) 2m 3f 100y
MCFABULOUS – highest rated runner who ended the season with two wins and promise that more is to come. Should be ready to go for this and is a course winner so you can see why he’s favourite but plenty short enough
COURTANDBOULD – Yard flying so while this is a step up in class could run well if the rain stays away and the ground has plenty of good about it
EVERGLOW – Really strong bumper form but looks to be a chaser in the making. This will tell us more but wouldn’t be a shock winner
GETAROUND – 139 rated runner who has won round here too. Likely to be ready to roll after a win last month but I’d be worried if he’s really up to this Grade
ONE FOR THE TEAM – Found best form over further but this race tends to suit staying types so realistically the main threat to the favourite but also well found in the market
PETRASTAR – 3 from 3 in this sphere but form is questionable
LEGENDS RYDE – Needs more to feature here but has some steady form in places to suggest that she can improve still
Summary – This race does look to be MCFABULOUS’ to lose but at the price I’ve been looking to take him on. The problem is there are a few that can have half chances made for them so it’s a race I’ll sit back and take note of for formlines going forward rather than any interest. EVERGLOW will be popular and could appeal in the W/O market (Currently 9/2 with hills)
15:50 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 11y Div I
AT LARGE – Well bred and certainly one to keep an eye on for the foreseeable
BEBRAVEFORGLORY – Fancied in his last run but underwhelmed so hard to predict better here
FLIC OU VOYOU – NK second to OFALLTHEGINJOINTS here last season and that form is strong enough to be the most likely winner especially off the back of a wind op. Problem is she often finds something to beat her but as a second season novice she is the one to beat
FOLKS ON THE HILL – Well beaten in a bumper but was a fair price as a store and should improve for an obstacle so interesting in a race lacking depth
GILWEN GRAYSON – Form from bumper and maiden hurdle suggest he’s not up to this
MAD BARRY – Impossible to fancy and well beaten in two runs
MASTER TEMPLAR – One of three for Olly Murphy but wouldn’t be for me
SEVERANCE – 90 rated on the flat and the type that could win these sorts of races so well on the shortlist given the line up here
FOLLOW THAT – Second for Olly Murphy but bang average rules form up to now
MINI CREST – Olly’s final runner and she’s got form to suggest she might be the best of the trio but not my idea of a major player in here
Summary – FLIC OU VOYOU will probably be a short priced favourite for this race and rightly so but I am cautious of how often the horse has found one too good in varying levels so might be a hard one to catch right. That said if theres a bit of juice in the price I’d be happy to take the punt. SEVERANCE would be the main other to note for me given how good he was on the flat and might be a fair price in a weak ish looking race
16:25 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 11y Div II
ALLENBY – Not great on his bumper debut but not knocked about and should win hurdle races
BRAVEMANSGAME – Big money purchase who underwhelmed in bumpers given that price tag but still retains plenty of interest and obstacles should see a marked improvement from him
GOUET DES BRUYERES – No Chance
KAPROYALE – Quietly ridden on hurdle debut last month which appeared to me as though they were expecting him to improve for the run. Doing just that makes him a player here
NUMBERS MAN – Nicely bred with links to SAMCRO so one to watch on debut and expect improvement
RAINBOW JAZZ – Held when unseating last time out and this is tougher
SOARING GLORY – No doubt he brings the best form to the table and really is the one to beat. Exciting
TO BE SURE – Relatively cheap pick up and should be winning races, but this looks tough for him
FIVETOTWELVE – Another Olly Murphy runner who should not be featuring
WORLD TRIP – Third Olly Murphy runner who is likely to better over further so will be suited if this turns into a real test
Summary – SOARING GLORY has really strong bumper form and will be a worthy favourite, but I’ve not yet given up on BRAVEMANSGAME. He might have his chance another day but I’ll be keeping a close eye on him for sure. KAPROYALE looks ready to roll for this and could go close while NUMBERS MAN is well enough bred to make his presence felt too.
16:55 Veterans Chase 2m 7f 131y
VIRGILIO – Last seen winning over fences back in the summer of 18 off a 2lb higher mark. Not been in great form hurdling since comeback but always been a chaser for this stable really although this would be some achievement to land this. Maybe one for another day
DOUBLE SHUFFLE – Has run well here in the past and despite a slipping handicap mark he’s capable of mixing it in this company for sure. Does not win often which is now becoming a concern but should go close
PRESENT MAN – Last won a Listed Chase off this mark in November 18 but not been seen much since. Goes well fresh and another who should be able to win races in this sphere
CROSSPARK – If the ground stays around Good to soft he can outrun his likely odds but 7lb higher than last winning mark
JOE FARRELL – 3rd in this race last year off the same mark when sent off favourite but this might not be as stamina laden a renewal so might be vulnerable to something else
PINGSHOU – Surely most of us agree this horse never reached his peak so the mark of 140 doesn’t look unmanageable for the start of a veterans career. Had a comeback run where he was seen over 2m so that had to be a warm up for this, and he had fallen the last twice prior. Should get this trip on this ground but the dryer the better
THEATRE GUIDE – Well beaten in this race last year and now just 4lbs lower but another year older. Hard to make a strong case for but has had the wind op, and Robbie Power rode him well at Sandown last January so possibilities of a better shower this time round
STRONG PURSUIT – Just 9 races under rules for this 10yo so he’s had his issues but he’s probably no a light enough mark to make his presence felt although very hard to be convinced he’s the same horse of old and won’t get an uncontested lead. Yard vibes at the moment are positive though
DON POLI – The back form of this horse means 132 is a laughable mark but his recent PTP exploits (namely when beating KILLER CROW) show him up to be possibly over rated. I think this will be experience for Tristan Durrell more than anything and as much as I’d love to see the old DON back I’m not sure he retains that level of ability anymore
SHANTOU VILLAGE – A horse I really like and I think he would have won the Kerry National last year if he’d not unseated. He’s down 8lbs off that mark now and I think he’ll get the race run to suit. Has had two spins over hurdles this summer and I fully expect him to go very close but he does have his best form on Good ground so keep an eye on the going
ON TOUR – Nk second in this race last year off a 1lb lower mark so has a chance on that alone. Visor didn’t work last time out but is back off now
HORATIO HORNBLOWER – Comes here in good form which can’t be said for plenty and despite his mark riding 10lbs last season he looked value for that when Unseating at Sandown in January. Not dismissed
WHAT A MOMENT – Last win came in 2017 and has only raced three times since but potentially needed last season so the fact he’s just turned 10, comes here off the back of a Wind Op and will relish the ground means he’s got to be a lively outsider
DANCING SHADOW – Bare form suggests that off this current mark he’s going to find this tough and would probably want further to show a best effort
Summary – This type of handicap will be full of horses we have plenty of knowledge of but it doesn’t make it too much easier to pick apart. I’m keen on SHANTOU VILLAGE though and I think there will be loads of pace up top which will suit him down to the ground. Speaking of ground, I would prefer it on the quick side of good to soft to be confident. WHAT A MOMENT could run well at a price if he’s ready to roll and I think last season was just a case of getting on course. THEATRE GUIDE may be getting on a bit now but he wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a big race
17:25 Novices' Chase (Class 3) 2m 7f 131y
ASK DILLON – I really like this horse and he ran an absolute blinder here in December when the ground was very testing. Yard flying and do well with this type when fresh so I think he’s a huge player
ENRILO – One of my horses to follow for the season who was babyish last term. The further they go the better but I’s give him a chance in here fresh providing he settles
MAHLERVOUS – Second Season Novice Chaser so has experience on his side but a bit to find on form
OFALLTHEGINJOINTS – Won on this card last season but didn’t really build on it after. Still retains potential but I’m not sure this trip will suit
RED RIVER – Bleeder which is a massive negative BUT he’s a proper horse and another second season Novice. Has been waited with and although hard to trust his wellbeing is more than capable at this level
THE CASHEL MAN – Best form came when running THYME HILL second in the Challow Hurdle. Ex flat horse who has probably reached his ceiling over hurdles so worth a pop in here but I’m not sure he’ll take to fences quickly as it took him long enough to win over hurdles
THE MIGHTY DON – The third second season Novice in here (technically third season Novice as unseated in 2018) but fell twice last season and none of those chase efforts would see him land this
Summary – Really exciting Novices’ chase here with ENRILO one of my horses to follow for the season. Of course it would be nice to get off to a winning start, and I think he could, but ASK DILLON is another horse I really like and given his course experience and yard form he could represent some value at opening show. RED RIVER is capable on his day but has had issues so hard to trust and OFALLTHEGINJOINTS of course won on this card last year and can mix it in this company
I was able to speak with Harry Cobden about the upcoming season and honestly this is personally the best piece of content I've put out here.
Harry is a jockey who I strongly believe will go down with the greats, and while I appreciate he has a long way to go yet, what he's achieved as a 21 year old is nothing short of remarkable.
Plenty of names to note so they're listed below and I hope you enjoy watching this as much as I did recording it.
I'll kick things off with my literal list of horses to follow for the upcoming National Hunt season but please do be assured that via the Facebook page each and every horse I'm keeping an eye on will be posted at either entry or declaration stage. My complete list is well into the hundreds so despite this being a big article I assure you it's been condensed. I've also looked to include those which you might not hear about elsewhere but a few will feature on many peoples lists I suspect. It's also quite apparent the form links of a few of these, which is typical of the way I like to look at NH Horses; first in isolation and then at the race itself
There are two following sections for Second Season Novices' (horses who have not won a race in a particular discipline when first trying it last season) which again I've only been able to highlight a small amount of but the others who fit this profile will be alerted via Facebook
Finally there are some others to note with a quick line or two on each
EASYWORK
Gordon Elliott – Gigginstown Stud – 6/7yo
So I wanted to start off with probably the most obvious
runner in the list and while I am to provide you with my views on the ones that
may not already be on your radar I think it’s worth talking about this lad
anyway. Two Grade 1’s second places were the end of EASYWORK’S season but there
was certainly a feeling that he still had a bit more to offer over hurdles had
we been able to carry on with the remaining spring festivals. That said, I
think he learnt almost everything he needed too from that novice hurdle
campaign and it might benefit him more than others to call his season short. He
completed 5 races last term after starting off in another bumper which he won
as he should have. The only initial niggle there was the application of the
hood. I appreciate it’s their to be used but I don’t like headgear as a general
rule for horse who haven’t even raced that much. He went on to narrowly beat MT
LEINSTER which looked OK form at the time and on St Stephens’ Day he absolutely
bolted up when upped in trip for the first time. Now we can argue that his
chief rival was poor and that he’s failed since, but even DISCORAMA was in the
race a beaten by almost 50. EASYWORK wasn’t really extended but I think that
performance was entitled to be taken at face value.
The drop back in trip for the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle,
and his first Grade 1 attempt, felt a bit like he was running there because
they had other options in the middle distance division, namely ENVOI ALLEN. He
bumped into a proper horse in ASTERION FORLONGE, regardless of how that horse
performed in the Supreme so while being beaten just shy of 10 lengths isn’t
ideal, I think it was a fair result at a trip which looks blatantly too short
for him. Now to review that race choice you could argue the hood suggests he
doesn’t really settle, so running him over shorter implies that he’ll be going
faster and the settling issue becomes irrelevant. I’d challenge that slightly
to suggest he wasn’t 100% relaxed in that Leopardstown Grade 1.
Now onto the festival where he finished second behind ENVOI
ALLEN, and I think this is where you’re going to get a number of people
starting to look at him. Rightly so because it was a cracking effort, but Rachel
Blackmore was vocal afterwards about just how freely he ran which was apparent
in the early exchanges with how strong a hold he took. Let’s put that into
reality. He pulled hard, he hung on the run up and he was still second-best
behind ENVOI ALLEN. I’m not saying that I’d expect that form to be reversed now
they book look to be sent chasing but I do think he’s a top novice for the
season ahead. I also think he’s a genuine player in the Marsh Chase as the
blend of speed and trip coming back 1f means he might just find his comfort
zone. Let’s also not forget that ENVOI had been there and done it at Cheltenham
whereas this was EASYWORKS first experience.
He’s available at 16/1 with William Hill for any race (can
boost to 17.52/1) but he’s actually shorter than that in place just for the
Marsh Chase alone (25/1 top price with BV only). Now I think he’ll go to the
Marsh, and I think he’s got a proper chance of winning it, but he needs to
settle for chasing which I think he will, you only have to look at CYRNAME who
sported the Hood from an early stage but he’s thrived with the additional
distraction of a fence and over time. Furthermore, for the Marsh chase it’s not
a forgone conclusion that ENVOI ALLEN will head for that race. He’s favourite
for both that and the RSA so that hints already but I’ve said on multiple
occasions they think of him as a Gold Cup horse, always have, and I know
Cheveley Park want an RSA horse not a Marsh horse (look at ALLAHO last season).
For me I don’t see why you wouldn’t start the season with all options open but
with a view at testing him as a staying chaser as some point. If it works out
then the RSA clearly becomes the target and I don’t see why it wouldn’t work
out. He clearly stays strongly. We know he’s quick too especially with all the
Supreme talk last season but that’s a plus as loads of Gold Cup winners have
shown bundles of pace as Novice Hurdlers.
That makes the value on EASYWORK seem even greater
considering I think he’s got a chance even if ENVOI lined up in the Marsh so if
you took him out I’d have him as outright favourite, even at this stage.
Gigginstown and Elliott do have FURY ROAD as an RSA horse so I really do fancy
EASYWORK for the Marsh but the added security of the any race market at this
stage still represents value for me
So this horse was suggested on his debut for Gordon Elliott
as one to keep an eye on where he won nicely but there was certainly some
strange movement in the market. He around 4/1 the night before which I snapped
up but then as I logged on to watch the prelims he went out to 14/1. Now I
appreciate the drift from that yard but I went in again and he was duly backed
before the off to SP at 4/1. That race was under Gordon’s ownership and after
he was sold to Michael Grech formally of Grech & Parkin.
The horse went on to run in a Grade 3 over 3 miles where
ultimately he was poor but having been handed an opening mark of 141 I wonder
whether they tried that grade and trip to almost suggest he needs to come down
the weights. I’d be seriously interested in this horse if he stays over hurdles
this season because I think he is a 140’s horse but probably wants the middle
distance and potentially he might make his way down to a mark when they decide
to go and pick up a nice handicap with him, maybe around Christmas. I think the
key factor here with this horse is, they decided they wanted him to win first
time up and the horse responded to a fairly aggressive ride so I think he has a
few more days in the spotlight ahead of him I just need to spot them!
YOUR DARLING
Ben Pauling – Lord and Lady Vestey – 5/6yo
This lad probably makes quite a few lists for horses to
follow but again I think he needs the mention because he was pulled up last
time out so maybe a few have discounted him. It’s fair to say Ben Pauling
didn’t have the best season last term but I think from what we’ve seen over the
summer he’s turned a corner and the yard seems to be back to it’s typical form.
This horses debut was so impressive when beaten FLINTEUR SACRE but I don’t
think the rest of the field were much to be honest. Now FLINTEUR maybe needed
the run more than YOUR DARLING but the pair were both keen and I just think
there won’t be a lot between them this season.
He’s got a bit of stamina in his dam line so I wouldn’t be
surprised to see him campaigned like WILLOUGHBY COURT was the year he won the
Ballymore so where this horse starts out is going to be interesting. That said,
BRIGHT FORECAST, another recent Pauling placed Ballymore horse was a 2m Maiden
winner and only stepped up in trip at the Festival itself.
He’s a 40/1 poke for that race but he’s now 20/1 from 25/1
with Hills for any race which looked the way to play him for the season ahead.
I’m already on, but I did also take some of the 40/1 for smaller stakes because
I think that’s the race where he’ll end up
Henrietta Knight on YOUR DARLING:
“After Warwick he had an infection in his lungs
and obviously that stopped him in his race. He's being given a long
holiday with me at West Lockinge Farm but I still have a very high opinion of
him. He's a magnificent horse and I totally believe in him. He'll go
novice hurdling in the autumn and will be suited by longer distances. We
schooled him before we turned him out to grass and he's just a phenomenal jumper.
Before he came to England he had been educated around three point-to-point courses
in Ireland, which is the same as Best Mate. I'm excited by this
horse; to me he has everything and a wonderful temperament.”
KILTEALY BRIGGS
Jamie Snowden – McNeill Family – 6/7yo
This lad was a beaten favourite on his rules debut but that
was a 2m bumper so the trip was likely to be on the short side. The front trio
all looked nice prospects at the time and pulled a long way clear of the
remainder. REDFORD ROAD won that day and picked up the Grade 2 Bristol Novices
hurdle (With KILTEALY behind) and he’s now a 140 rated horse. ADICCI back in
third hasn’t really gone forward, having won just once since and is now a 124
rated horse.
KILTEALY himself falls between the pair on an OR of 136 but
I would strongly suggest that he will make the best chaser of those and I think
136 is more than generous starting point. He’s a big old boy and having seen
that he suffered with Colic this summer I was relieved to see how well he
looked when leaving AP McCoy’s training facilities. Now given his illness you’d
have to think there will be a patient approach, and likely we won’t see the
best of him for at least another season but I do think he’s a very nice horse,
and given what we know now I think he can be judged with leniency on whatever
he does in his first couple of races but he’ll win a few nice pots if we keep
him onside
LIEUTENANT ROCCO
Colin Tizzard – Sherborne Utilities Ltd – 5/6yo
Very impressive on rules debut at Chepstow when well
supported and he then backed that up with an arguably better performance at Warwick.
That earned him a place in the Albert Bartlett but those were three quick runs
and that was a significant jump in class, especially for his first trip at 3m.
The interesting thing with this horse is that Paul Nicholls had him so I’m not
sure the of the back story and why the owners moved yards but it’s an
interesting one given he won so well.
He has a mark of 139 for his exploits over hurdles but
he’s another that will make a nice chaser. As it stands you’d think the middle
trip would suit as a starting point but I’d still be interested when he steps
up in trip again. He’s from a nice family too with his Dam being an unraced
full sister to FIRST LIEUTENANT who himself was a nice middle distance hurdler
and picked up the Ballymore in 2011. He thrived over fences with a couple of
seconds at the Festival after (RSA and Ryanair) but was an Aintree Bowl winner
too. Anyway, I just feel this horse looks above average and I’d be happy to
think he’s going to end up as a Graded Chaser
EDEN DU HOUX
David Pipe – Prof Caroline Risdall – 6/7yo
OK so fair to say last season was a bit of a write off for
this horse and arguably would have been better to have not lost his maiden
status when winning by a shd. He was a Class 1 winner in a Bumper but he had a
wind op last term following the application of a tongue tie and on his last run
had cheekpieces applied. Now you’ll know I’m not a fan of horses with headgear
or potentially obvious breathing issues but both his last two runs were above
average efforts to my eye if you consider there probably was an issue. How they
play him this season will be interesting but I think he’s fallen off a lot of
peoples radars at the moment so he’s on here more as a reminder that he’s still
a very exciting prospect, and while his issues might prevent him achieving what
we expected after his bumper runs, he’s capable of winning plenty off a mark of
131 so I for one will be following him with a closer eye this season. We also
know that David Pipe is a shrewd operator so by keeping an eye on his
performances we might be able to work out when his chance presents itself
HARRY SENIOR
Colin Tizzard – Brocade Racing – 6/7yo
This horse is probably a likely one on most peoples lists
because bar his Albert Bartlett run where a mistake cost him and he was clearly
minded he’s got some solid form. Now I do think tactically he stole that race
from KING ROLAND (better ride in the finish) but he did win it well so maybe I’m being a bit harsh. That
was at the middle trip which might just end up his bag over fences. He’s
already a 143 rated horse, although that might just be high enough for the
literal hurdle form, but you’d expect he’ll be half a stone better at least over
fences so that leaves him around the 150 mark and that’s where the caution
creeps in. I’m not sure he’ll make a top notcher just yet over fences (I know
he’ll only be a Novice, but still) so how they play this season will be
interesting. He ran well at Chepstow's season opener last season so maybe they’ll
be thinking about a race there, maybe over hurdles just to kick things off.
He’s
another horse (as you’ll see mentioned a few times) that I think would be a proper
contender in that Novices’ Handicap Chase come that Tuesday in March, but you’d
think they’ll try and see how far they can get him to go before then which
means his mark of 143 might not last out. However, if he doesn’t quite shine in
better company I do think it’s worth keeping an eye on that OR because like I mentioned
before, I think he could end up a 150 horse this season, but that wouldn’t
scream out he’s going to be winning a Marsh which brings that race on day one
back into consideration.
It’s also worth noting that should he start over hurdles
this season and win on debut then the Stayers Hurdle could be a smart move
(They thought about it with NATIVE RIVER) but he should really progress for
chasing
TACTICAL MOVE
Willie Mullins – Mrs J Donnelly – 6/7yo
His dam is a half sister to DENMAN but he’s the only race
winner out of the three she’s produced. He was runner up in his point behind
EDEN DU HOUX but he’s clearly had more issues than that horse having only raced
twice since when 2nd in a bumper then winning one last term.
Personally I thought both bumper runs where decent especially when you look at
this horse as a staying prospect. Now I was a bit surprised we didn’t see him
after that bumper win last season so maybe the issues are back but I’d expect
him to be hurdling this season, and he’s on my list of Albert Bartlett profile
horses for the season ahead. He’ll need to get racing into him, and it’s
plausible he’ll need slow ground but over in Ireland there is a really good
program for staying novice hurdlers and I’d hope he could pick up a few race
for us before the spring. The runner up in that winning bumper, IDAS BOY, is
also worth keeping an eye on this season with a similar profile in terms of
staying novice hurdles the likely plan
ENRILO
Paul Nicholls – Martin Broughton & Friends – 6/7yo
It’s another horse with form behind EDEN DU HOUX but I
assure you, like TACTICAL MOVE, this lad is in here off his own back. He has
two stand out lines for form from last season which was while beating
THUNDERSTRUCK on hurdles debut and then landing the Winter Novices’ Hurdle. He
flopped inbetween and wasn’t great at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle but he’s
going to make a fine chaser although his lack of being able to back up a
performance is a bit of a concern once we get racing again (has won on ever
other occasion). He’s a winner at both Kempton and Sandown so you’d think that
likely targets this season would be the Scilly Isles in the new year but they
may look at 2m races with him and the Wayward Lad would be interesting
although he might just fit around plans with PIC D’ORHY
SIXSHOOTER
Noel Meade – Gigginstown Stud – 5/6yo
A horse most of you will know I’m weirdly a big fan of and
that’s going to continue into this season because he was very much always going
to make a nice chaser. He’s wasn’t the biggest as a bumper horse but looked to
have caught up last season so I think he’ll have grown again and settled into
his size. Whether he’s going to make the grade I thought possible back from
that Punchestown bumper I don’t know but he’s better than 135, that I can
assure you. Maybe there was a plan for Punchestown again last season but
obviously that couldn’t happen so maybe they’ve got something lined up for
seasonal debut. I’m just very excited about him going over fences (providing
they do this season)
FRANCIN
Willie Mullins – Mrs S Ricci – 7/8yo
Somewhat of a late addition to this list but having spent time looking at replays he keeps impressing me without blowing me away. That's not exactly the greatest of starting reviews, but the more I look back at him the more I'm taken by him. Starts last season off the back of a 2 year absence so clearly had issues, line through that although THATSY who won the race is a nice horse. Run after was 2l behind COBBLERS WAY, another nice horse and may still have needed it. Dropped back to 2m after and beats THE VERY MAN, another nice horse, but finally when stepped up to 2m 6 1/2f he goes and gives SIXSHOOTER 8lbs and a beating. Now it was off a slow pace and he was ridden to get the trip by being dropped out, but while it was a hell of a ride from Townend, I think this horse could be a fair Novice Chaser next season so you need him on your radar and while stamina needs to be proved again, he could be a wild one for the NH Chase but he's not the biggest so another season over hurdles wouldn't shock me
DANNY WHIZZBANG
Paul Nicholls – Mrs Angela Tincknell – 7/8yo
I really do think this horse can be quite good this season.
He’s a big lad and looked as though while hurdling that it was very much a case
of bringing him on. He picked up a Grade 2 on his chasing bow while taking the
scalp of RESERVE TANK but that was only a three runner race and he was getting
5lbs from the horse mentioned. Still, I like the way the he stayed on stoutly, I
think he’s possibly a bit of a slow horse who will just stay and that’s why I’m
really hoping he’s heading to the Ladbroke Trophy this season because he just
ticks so many boxes. He’s rated 145 at the moment so I’d be shocked if he doesn’t
pick up a handicap this season, but whether they might take one before deciding
about a race like the Ladbroke Trophy is still undecided. I’m saying that like I
know the plans, but when Harry Dereham did a recent live stream from the gallops
I asked about this lad and that race and he said no plans had been made at all which
was a little annoying.
Anyway, he ran ok for a long way in the Kauto Star Novices’
Chase on boxing day and wasn’t really every settled at Ascot after but he has
that winning form at Newbury and if they can keep on top of his wind (had an op
before that Newbury run last term) I really do think he’s a proper chance. I’d
think Aintree might suit him too whereas Cheltenham I’m not so sure on yet, but
we’ll see as the season goes because I’ll be following him throughout
FUSIL RAFFLES
Nicky Henderson – Simon Munir & Isaac Souede – 5/6yo
Early last season, in fact straight after Wincanton and
landing the Elite Hurdle Daryl Jacob commented on FUSIL RAFFLES and said that
he actually didn’t recognise the horse when coming back to ride him out as he’d
gotten so big. No take that as you like but he looked genuinely shocked at how
much he’d grown. He got 3lbs from GRAND SANCY that say but I thought he rallied
well and would come on a ton for the run so I thought it was a solid enough effort.
He was sent off joint favourite for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton but was clear
fav in the run up and the night before. To add a bit more fuel to that drift, his
stablemate and future Champion Hurdle winner EPATANTE was the one for money so
I could be reading too much into it, but I was less than surprised when FUSIL
didn’t really run his race. The rain had come so it was the first time I
thought he might be a bit ground dependant but at the same time I wanted to
give him the benefit of the doubt and put a line through that run. He was nibbled
in the market on the day for the Champion Hurdle but was well beaten so again
with that run coming on soft I’d hold some reservation about ground for him. But,
he’s only a 5yo. Lots of juveniles struggle in that first season in Open
company and plenty catch up after.
To go back to the size thing with him, he’s clearly built to
be a chaser, and he’s going to thrive in that sphere. Given how much he’d grown
for one summer he might not have yet been used to that frame being filled and I
think he’s one to keep firmly on side. Comparison to DEFI DU SEUIL isn’t really
like for like as the yard had a bug which almost cost DEFI his life in his first
year outside Juvenile company, but it goes to show that they’re young enough
not to be written off and I do think once FUSIL steps up to the middle trip he
can show us what he’s really made of
HAPPYGOLUCKY
Kim Bailey – Lady Dulverton – 6/7yo
This ex pointer managed two thirds in Grade 2’s over hurdles
and was 4th in the Martin Pipe after being hampered at the last.
Before those run he won his Maiden hurdle by 11 lengths beating a now 132 rated
chaser with ease. His mark of 139 looks very attractive for this season where Novice
chasing will surely be on the cards.
I think he’ll stay every inch of 3m but given his exploits
at the middle distances last term over hurdles you’d think that would be where
they’d start off. He is a 6yo but he’s only had those 4 spins under rules, all
of which came on soft ground but he’ll handle proper NH going on any end of the
spectrum I feel.
IMPERIAL AURA for this yard took the Novices Handicap Chase
at the festival starting his chasing season off 136 (raised from 133 after
hurdle run at Chepstow) so they’d want to be careful of how high HAPPYGOLUCKY is
raised this season, but I’d think that could be a potential long term forecast,
or even the Novices Handicap Chase on Trials day if he’s creeping up because he
can always go for the Stable Plate after (Being written with the assumption
neither race will be dropped) which SIMPLY THE BETTS took this year, and he and
IMPERIAL AURA were 1/2 in the race on Trials day.
MUD RUNNER
Henry De Bromhead – Julian Taylor – 6/7yo
I would think other than followers of the page and those who
read the “Ones to Watch” most people wouldn’t know much about this horse. He is
a full brother to WEAPON’S AMNESTY an Albert Bartlett and RSA winner at the
festival so those into their breeding may have him on their radar somewhat.
He made his debut in a 2m Maiden hurdle last November which
looked at the time, and has worked out since, to be a pretty ordinary race. The
thing with this horse was that he was the one I watched throughout the race,
and despite knowing he’s bound to want at least 3/4 of a mile further he ran OK
for most of the race considering he was a bit keen and he really flew home. I
think he was given an educational ride but it was a shame we didn’t see him
after. How sound a horse he is I don’t know but, he comes into this season with
that Novice Status in check and he’s of serious interest when stepping up in
trip as I think he’s got the potential to be above average and he’s going to
win races. I’ve mentioned before, but the staying novice hurdle scene in Ireland
is littered with some good races but the majority of the top grade horses tend
to steer clear of them in favour of either calmer campaigns before the spring,
or looking at maybe more prestigious middle distance races. That means I think we
can expect him to win a race or two and we might just get some value in there
too
SECOND SEASON NOVICES’
HURDLERS
FAUSTINOVICK
Colin Tizzard – Taylor & O’Dwyer – 6/7yo
I’d say this horse must have been one of the biggest let downs
last season given he’s ended it 0/3 and with an OR of just 122. He’s another
for Colin who has solid point form (6l behind ANDY DUFRESNE) and a solid enough
bumper run. Despite being turned over at odds on when making his hurdle debut I
thought it was an OK effort for which he’d improve greatly. He didn’t, although
he bumped into a couple I think but his last run of the season at Ascot was
fairly tame too. That came after a wind op and the application of a tongue tie
and he could have actually run in a handicap. Now I feel there may have been
plans for a handicap race at the end of the season, the same maybe true of L’AIR
DU VENT too. They could have got their win then started a campaign over fences
so while that’s delayed I’m adamant this horse will be winning off a mark this
light. He’s also a horse that Colin mentioned a few times pre season as one he was
excited about so I’m happy to draw a line under last season for him and go from
scratch this term
TIME FLIES BY
Nicky Henderson – JP McManus – 5/6yo
On debut he picked up a Class 2 bumper at Cheltenham and he
was very weak in the market that day. It was an absolute bog but he cruised to
the lead and won nicely. He came back to Cheltenham for the November meeting in
yet another bumper however was beaten by ISRAEL CHAMP who went on to land the another
Class 1 bumper after this at Ascot, so we know he was beaten by a good horse.
Often big trainers will stick horses like this into Graded
Company for hurdling because it protects their status considering they’re probably
taking to obstacles a bit sooner than planned and if they were to win then it’s
a Graded victory so no better place to lose that maiden title. He ran at Ascot
first where he didn’t jump very well and was a well beaten 3rd that
day then after he ran back at Chetlenham on trials day where he travelled well
in a race where KING ROLAND looked to be the winner turning in, but HARRY
SENIOR took the spoils. So despite this lad weakening, I’m trying to say I
think it was a good race.
He’s going to be a further forward than lots of Novice’s at
the start of the season and while that last run over the middle trip hints that
they think he’ll stay, I’d love to see him back at 2m on testing ground. I’d
also like to see him run on some more typical National Hunt going because that’s
a big unknown at the moment, whether he is bad ground dependant. However that
transpires, he’ll win races this season for sure and I’m quite excited about
watching him progress although he was so good on debut we might want to catch
him fresh
IT SURE IS
Nicky Henderson – Mrs J Donnelly – 5/6yo
Ok so you’ll known I’m a bit of a Graded snob, but that doesn’t
mean I don’t look for a few potential diamonds in the rough a bit lower down and
this horse is that to an absolute T. There were multiple instances where pre
season either Nicky himself or stable staff hinted that this horse is one to
watch out for the season and I can’t believe after his debut, when beaten 2l by
SEVARANO getting 5lbs, he’s ended up with an OR of 125. He was keen that day
and didn’t get the best run. SEVERANO finished the season a 135 rated horse so that
might read as though IT SURE IS isn’t far off where he should be in relation to
that horse but how he’s not stepped forward is beyond me although his point win
hasn’t really worked out either.
Still the horse clearly has ability and must show a bit at
home but he was twice beaten favourite after that rules debut. He’s had his
wind tinkered (haven’t they all) but then all but pulled up on his first run
after that so I’d suspect he’s had a niggle and I hope they’ve ironed that out.
He might just want some better ground, although he handled that Good To Soft at
Newbury fine, so I’m happy to make a few excuses for him and I reckon he’ll
hack up in a handicap off this kind of mark
L’AIR DU VENT
Colin Tizzard – Brocade Racing – 6/7yo
There’s certainly a touch of the WHITE MOON’S about this
horse, so I think we’ll need to tread carefully. That said, I would expect this
lad is capable of winning off his opening mark of 131 but he’s clearly had
issues. Colin Tizzard was quite vocal at the start of last season about just
how exciting this horse was and although beaten on his debut at Cheltenham in a
Class 2 he showed some ability. He was nothing other than poor in the Hyde
Novices’ Hurdle but that came on slower ground and he had a wind op following
that. The latter is an indication that he didn’t show up in that race but of
course there is an area of concern about his wind. They applied the tongue tie
for his next race where he ran just an OK race but that was back at 2m and I’m
sure they knew that was a run for his opening mark.
He’s retained his Novices’ status for another season which I
think is going prove the key to us getting something from this horse as he’s
going to be much more forward this term. In fact, I heard Colin Tizzard say there
was a mix up with this horse and I think HARRY SENIOR, which led to L’AIR DU
VENT being sent to Keith Dalgleish’s yard by mistake. The other loose line to
remember is that he was in with every chance of beating SHISHKIN in his point
to point so that’s red hot form. A full season and summer with Colin Tizzard
will stand him in very good stead for the season ahead, I’m not sure if they
will look at handicaps first up but you’d hope they do. It would have to be a
slightly tentative punt first time up because of the wind, but should they take
off the tongue tie I wouldn’t be upset and he does run better when fresh it
seems.
BLACKBOW
Willie Mullins – Roaringwater Syndicate – 7/8yo
I think plenty of people might have drawn a line through
this horse by now but I’m not prepared to just sweep him under the carpet yet.
Yes he missed a season, yes he failed to win a race last term but he was well
on his way to give CAPTAIN GUINNESS 3lbs and a beating when he fell at Navan in
December in first time headgear and despite that horse arguably having more progression
in him than this lad it’s solid form. Far too keen after when beaten at odds on
yet again before heading back to Navan where he just didn’t look overly keen to
win that day.
I wonder whether they might try and step him up in trip. While
he might not settle off a slower pace I’m not sure he’s really raced in top
level company since hurdling but that might help him. Plus the fact he had missed
that season maybe he was just a good deal further behind than we thought he was
so I think with a clear run into this season he’s bound to pick up some races. Now
with his age you have to wonder if they might stick him over fences now and the
season over hurdles was purely a comeback and learn effort. Whatever they
decide to do with him I’m interested, and if he were to be sent chasing he’ll
still retain that Novice Hurdle status and I’m sure at some point that can be
exploited. I also think on a bit of nicer ground he’ll be better
The first of the second season novice chasers in this
feature is GETAWAY TRUMP who is already a 150’s horse. Given his experience
last season, he will be more forward than most rivals he meets (especially
early in the season) and of course he’s an ex pointer too. His two runs at
Cheltenham hinted that might not be his best track but if you consider he
travelled strongly into both those races but just couldn’t find much up the
hill I think it’s fair to say he didn’t completely disappoint. I also think
he’s going to shine over further and I’d expect him to progress into a
potential staying chaser this season. That said he’s had his wind tinkered and
this forecast is on the assumption they can get that sorted
Like all these second season novices’ he’s got an advantage
early in the season so best not to get over excited too soon as I do think
there are some nice races available to him as time goes on. Given his current
mark, if he were to start the season off slowly (remember he wore a tongue tie
first time at Kempton when last season) I think we could maybe forgive him and
any reduction in his OR would make him an eye-catching runner if going in a
Novice Handicap. On that note he only needs to come down 6lbs to secure a place
in the Novices’ Handicap Chase on Day 1 (providing that’s not the race
dropped), but that’s an ambitious season long target, even by my standards.
Hopefully he starts the season off well though, and I really
hope he’s a bit braver now as I’ve often commented on how easy Harry Cobden
seems to go on him at his obstacles
BEAKSTOWN
Dan Skelton – Bryan Drew – 7/8yo
So once again BEAKSTOWN gets a mention but this time in the Second
Season Novices’ category which I wasn’t expecting. He really didn’t look to
finish out his races last season which typically suggests a wind issue and I’m
concerned now that this isn’t going to subside. However, he’s better than a 139
horse. He’s got another season as a Novice now so with the experience and age
under his belt I expect him to win a couple of races at least this season.
Now it’s going back a while now but this horse stayed very
well as a Novice Hurdler so despite him not seeing out his races I’d be
interested to see if they try him up to 3m this season. Potentially he might
settle into a more comfortable pace for the majority of those races and that
might in turn help him see out the latter stages. However it plays out, this
horse must be treated with caution, but in the back of most peoples minds is that
this horse is surely capable of much better than his current mark but this
feels like the season for redemption as I’d start to worry after another year,
and then stepping into open company
GALVIN
Gordon Elliott – R A Bartlett – 6/7yo
Runner up in the Novices’ Handicap Chase on Day 1 at Cheltenham
meant he ended the season without a win over fences but he has been seen twice
this summer and has won both those starts. He keeps his Novices’ status for the
season so where they send him from now on will be very interesting. It’s also
worth pointing out early on that he made a big mistake at the first at Cheltenham
so it was a serious effort to finish where he did (Davy even dropped the reins)
He started off at Galway last October when he fell 4 out but
with a chance as the race was yet to unfold. You’d think now he’ll be headed to
test himself in Graded company and that’s where keeping an eye on this lad will
be crucial I feel. If he comes up short at that level then there’s plenty of
time to ready him for another bold show at Cheltenham as don’t forget he
finished 6th in the Ballymore the season prior after a horrible
mistake ruining any chance to see how close he might have finished. Whether he
can make it to Grade 1 level I’m not sure, but as mentioned, keep an eye on how
he runs over the winter because he could well be a plot for a Handicap come March
but I suppose connections will want to test how good he can be outside of
Handicaps, and rightly so
WALK AWAY
Henry De Bromhead – Robcour – 7/8yo
An impressive point and rules debut winner, WALK AWAY ran
fairly well at Aintree behind CHAMP when I was informed he was over more as a
travelling partner for CHRIS’S DREAM. He went on to run at Punchestown that
season where I was still forgiving although slightly underwhelmed.
The start of last season I thought he’s blown his cover by
running so well behind FAUGHEEN on chasing debut but he was so poor after that
when sent off just 3/1 against ALLAHO & EASY GAME I suspected a wind issue.
He sported the tongue tie for his next assignment where again he faced ALLAHO
and he was keen, rank OK but didn’t quite see out his race again. By this point
I’m wondering whether he mightn’t be as good as I was hoping.
However, his OR is down to 136 over fences. I’d be staggered
if he’s not better than that mark. He’s got the season under his belt in terms
of experience, and while there might be an underlying issue which needs to be
resolved, any wind op would excite me and I think he could pick up a Novice
Handicap Chase this season without much fuss. The caveat with that is the new
crop coming through as plenty of those are better than their hurdle marks, so
maybe if he has a slower start to the season and comes good in the spring that
might not be a bad thing, and that mark might just be protected or even
dropped. It’s worth noting that 2 of his three chase starts last season he ran
to 138 and 140 RPR’s.
CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
Nicky Henderson – JP McManus – 6/7yo
This horse reminds me a bit of FINE BRUNELLO who is a year
his junior and now with Enda Bolger (this horse may be worth keep a loose eye
on too). Not just are they both JP and greys, they both offered glimpses of a future
proper chaser while hurdling. It’s far to say this lad was woeful last season,
like I’d struggle to find an encouraging clip but the market moves behind him I
feel paint a picture that we’re not seeing all there is with this horse.
On chasing debut at Cheltenham he was horrendously weak drifting
from 11/4 out to 5/1 but he was much more drastic on the machine. He was poor
from the get go and his chasing efforts after didn’t excite until he showed a
bit of spark at Sandwon behind ITCHY FEET. At that point it looked like a step
up in trip would sort him, and I half expected him to come back over hurdles at
the festival.He was instead sent off joint
favourite for the Kim Muir where he ended up 7th in first time cheek
pieces. He was given a patient ride, and probably too patient as he was left
with a lot to do unless he was a stone ahead of his mark. Clearly he’s going to
be a force in staying chases this season, his mark not being raised because of
how he ran at Cheltenham might work out well for him and I wonder whether they
will have another handicap target this season where we just need to work out
when they’re going to try.
A race like the Ladbrokes Trophy probably could suit him and
we know Nicky Henderson has done well in the race before but I’m not sure JP is
so keen on it. I can only think of REGAL ENCORE as a placed runner of his. That’s
the sort of thought process I’d be thinking for a horse like him, second season
Novice chaser proper, and a horse who stays well by the looks of it. (As a side
note ON THE BLIND SIDE will be banded as his Hennessy horse this season I think
and with good reason currently 4lbs lower than when sent off just 8/1 but pulled
up last season)
Wherever they plot him this term I’d be keen to watch him progress,
and while he wouldn’t rate a confident horse to be supporting, there’s got to
be races to be won with him
MISSED LAST SEASON
BRIGHT FORECAST
Looked an RSA contender for last season, this years’ renewal
might not be any easier in terms of depth but Ben Paulings yard might not have
been at their best last term so although a setback is never ideal, it might just
afford this horse to be ahead of his rivals and he still could be an RSA horse
NEXT DESTINATION
A similar horse to BRIGHT FORECAST in that he looks a proper
staying chaser. Willie Mullins has let him go which is a worry but Paul Nicholls
will be able to get something out of him and he used to like to target the NH
Chase so that could be an option for him
HOSTILE
Was on my ones to watch last seaons but we didn’t see him. He’s
a very good horse so as soon as he’s seen on a racecourse I’m going to be
excited about what he can do and I’d forgive him his first couple of starts
too. I think he could be a proper horse who might slip under the radar
FELIX DESJY
So good at Aintree but that confirmed he might just want to
get things his own way in front. That could work for a while in Ireland while Novice
Chasing but I’d worry about him in the Grade 1’s although he’s clearly a very
good horse
SAMS PROFILE
Kind of the lively outsider a couple of seasons ago at
Cheltenham but he only had a slight issue last term and he’s another staying
chaser who will have plenty of big races left in him this season
GET IN THE QUEUE
Good bumper winner at Newbury and Noel Fehily’s last ever
ride. Harry Fry is often careful of his horses but I’d hope this lad gets a good
run at it this season and I think he’ll pick up some nice races
COMMANDER OF FLEET
2019 Albert Bartlett favourite and runner up who pulled up at Punchestown and missed all of last season. He'll be some horse over fences, so again that staying Novice Chase division looks incredible this term
DICKIE DIVER
7yo now going on 8 but has only raced thrice under rules which reinforces his fragility. Well beaten 4th in the Albert Bartlett 2019 but that could be upgraded given his lack of experience. May be a horse we never get to the bottom of but I'd say he should be at his best while chasing so hopefully that's seen this season
DRACONIEN
Actually missed the last two seasons but looked to have bags of potential and his Grade 1 Punchestown win coming on better ground that he appeared to want opened up a whole new world for him. Looked an Arkle type a couple of years back but no getting away from that lack of racing
OTHERS TO MENTION
PIC D’ORHY
Paul Nicholls has long raved about this horse, as have
plenty of people in the game but we know that this trainer is the master of a
slow burner and is the best there is when sending a horse over fences. That is
the plan this season for PIC D’ORHY and while it’s hard to pinpoint if he’s an
Arkle or Marsh type, the former race is suited to a blend of speed and stamina
as has that prestige about it which makes me lean towards that at this stage. Long
road ahead but I can see him lighting up the track this season
CHAMPAGNESUPEROVER
Weak in the market on bumper debut at Ayr but absolutely
bolted up. Disappointing beaten favourite after that in a typically good
Newbury Bumper but maybe ground was quick enough that day and he looks a nice
horse to go Novice Hurdling with this season
SAINT ROI
Held in high regard for some time now and was banded about by
a few good names that he was their supreme horse for last season. Flopping on
debut put paid to that hype but he won well after then hacked up in the Country
Hurdle. Albeit getting weight from ARAMON, the form has been franked and with
usual progression you can see why people are tipping him for the Champion
Hurdle even this far out
THE GLANCING QUEEN
Missed most of last season and almost seemed a token gesture
to run in the Champion Bumper for a second year. She’s part of that ENVOI ALLEN
winning bumper form, she won well at Cheltenham before that where Alan King was
already talking about sending her over hurdles. She’s had an issue but I’d
expect her to take top rank amongst the Mares’ Novice Hurdlers this season, on
theses shores at the very least
KLASSICAL DREAM
2019 Supreme winner who didn’t step forward last season
while entering open company. Still a horse with a huge engine to do what he did
in that Supreme and win so whether it’s hurdles or more likely chasing this
season, he’s worth giving another chance
ANGELS BREATH
Looked a smart Novice chaser but suffered a very serious tendon injury in which he could have lost his life. He'll be sidelined for a while and may not be seen this season but no doubting he has a huge engine
GALLYHILL
£450,000 sales topper at the Goffs UK January Sales to Mike
Grech
KESKONRISK
£370,000 purchase at the Goffs UK January Sales to Mike Grech
