Newbury's Super Saturday meeting has long been one of my favorite's and despite smaller field sizes this time round (which, lets face it, is just part of the sport in the interim) I'm just as excited as usual. I'll run through my thoughts on each race with a view to a couple of events away from Newbury added in for good measure. Be lucky!
13:15 - Novice's Limited Handicap Chase - 2m 7f 86y
BRAVEMANSGAME has changed the complexion of this race in more ways than one, but firstly his OR of 159 pushes 3 of his 5 opponents out of the handicap, which means they will run carrying more weight than they 'should' based on their ratings. This doesn't automatically exclude them all from calculations but I'm still keen to take them on.
PATS FANCY has been touted by connections as a prospect for the NH Chase at The Festival so this might not quite be enough of a test. He's also ascended 15lbs in the Handicap this season for his three starts over fences, but probably did beat a non stayer the last day in IMPERIAL ALCAZAR although plenty will say that form has since been franked. Not for me, and I think the change from Ben Jones back to James Bowen, despite both their class, suggests this is a prep run more than anything else.
GRUMPY CHARLEY won here over a little shorter at Christmas despite what the Racing Post site will suggest in terms of Course & Distance form. He won very comfortably, although he won't get the same underfoot conditions here although I don't think that'll be enough of an excuse for him not to run his best. He's 2lbs worse off with FERN HILL for a comfortable 3 length defeat and he's technically a further 4lbs well in against that opponent given FERN HILL is out of the handicap. Probably holds his chance, but whether he truly is a 143 horse bases on his two efforts in much better company (6th in the Supreme beaten 35l and 5th of 5 beaten 74 lengths in a Listed race) is open to debate
There's no getting away from the fact there could be an issue at Ditcheat with Paul Nicholls himself admitting they're looking for a reason as to why the horses might not be performing as expected. BRAVEMANSGAME will have to give 16lbs to his closest rivals and 19lbs to the remaining three which means he really does need to be a class above to land this. It's most likely that he is just that bit better than his rivals here, but at the likley short odds, and him being the yards first runner since last Saturday (ignore the one runner in Ireland Sunday), I think it would prove much more lucrative to sit back and expect him to win, then possibly debate the stable right now if he's beat
13:50 - Handicap Hurdle - 3m 52y
POLISH landed this race 12 months ago at 14/1 off the same mark of 130 so without much more delving, he clearly comes here on the shortlist. His form since has been in and out given he was well beaten on the flat at York before winning well at Goodwood on soft ground. He qualified for The Pertemps Final on his first start over course and distance back in November and he's got some backform at Cheltenham itself to suggest he could be a player in that race, however this is much, much easier and although it's only a 10k to the winner race, you'd be disappointed if they weren't trying to win, as he will probably need a rise in the weights to make The Festival
THE BRIMMING WATER was beaten favourite at Haydock last month although I'm not sure there were too many excuses. That was his first try at the trip, they have no stuck on a Tongue Tie to suggest there may have been a noise the last day and this better ground may help with the distance. He's one to watch in here anyway, with his defeat by FIRST STREET, albeit over 2m 5f, came on good ground and that was him behind by 8.5 lengths but it could have been more. This lad is fancied off 127 here and the latter runs in the Betfair Hurdle off 141 having won last month himself off 132. I'd probably be against this runner myself considering that form discussed whos he was beaten by a 2 miler over 2m 5f so doesn't exactly excite me for the prospect of staying this 3m just because of the tongie-tie
RISK AND ROLL was a big priced winner of another Pertemps Qualifier at the end of January and frustratingly I was told after that he's been seen by a horse osteopath to which he's reportedly responded really well too. Clearly that's true so the 10lbs rise may just underestimate him because it was a steady enough field, and they went a decent clip early too
WHATSUPWITHYOU is down 5lbs from his last run, where it was reported he had shown signs of suffering post race heat stress. Not ideal for his first attempt at the longer trip but he's long looked like he wanted a bit further than the middle distance. Sometimes horses can fall into a void at that trip, but one glaring line of form is his run when 12l behind GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Martin pipe and he was beaten 12l that day in receipt of 6lbs. You'd say that GDC has progressed, whereas this lad has possibly declined, but that's a line of form that's going to be looked at twice in a race like this
COEUR DE LION has run at this trip and at this course and that came in November 2020 off a 9lbs higher mark. He ran OK, and had more behind than in front that day. Just the two hurdles spin since, the most recent which came again back at this track over the middle trip when unfancied and well beaten (DASHEL DRASHER won the race). Before than he'd unseated almost a year prior (December 2020). He's had a blowout on the all weather since his hurdle reappearance and you'd say that should put him spot on for this. Ground should suit as his two wins came on Soft and Heavy. I'm just not sure he's the winner in this race but he's interesting all the same
THE BIG BREAKWAY runs back over hurdles here following a wind op and you'd have been mad to think this would be the case two seasons on from his Novice Hurdle campaign, where he looked to be a potential monster when sent chasing. He is only 7 though, so I'd hope they keep him over the smaller obstacles this season as he's always had no problem jumping these, but threw some weird shapes at his fences. There's also the explainable lull to the Tizzards form to be included when comparing this horse to his Novice Hurdle exploits, so overall, he's punty as you like, but at a double figure price, on a course where he was very impressive as a hurdler, I'd definitely have him on my betslip although he probably won't be alone
SUSSEX RANGER is another reverting back from fences where he's shown very little following a break. Another who is easy to forget is only 8 now and he won the Novices Handicap Chase here in 2020 off a 5lb higher mark by 11 lengths. The quicker the ground the better for him but he's another I wouldn't discount
SKANDIBURG will be a very big price in this, and when they're such a big price it's often easy to dismiss then but I'm going to journey back a little and suggest why I don't think this horse is a lost cause. Originally with Olly Murphy, he touted this a very nice prospect and he was rewarded following those comments when winning at Aintree in November 2019 then following up at Cheltenham on New Years Day. He climbed from 124 to 139 off the back of those wins, and won the Cheltenham race off 134. He flopped in the Pertemps Final, then was sent chasing but didn't take to that before leaving Olly Murphy to go to Jamie Snowden. The Brooks had a bit of shuffle with their runners, but that wasn't against Olly as they kept ITCHY FEET there. First run for Jamie Snowden was a second in a Handicap hurdle off 138 beaten half a length. He was raised 5lbs and well beaten then next time. Following the second run for Jamie the horse was sold to Charlotte Fuller, being only her second horse as a trainer, the first also picked up from Jamie Snowden. That horse was WINTER HOLIDAY who she has picked up two points with and was only beaten 3/4 l last month in a Handicap Hurdle (Jamie couldn't get her to win). To get to the point; SKANDIBURG was rated 142 when Charlotte took him over and he's now down 10lbs, which is 2lbs below his last winning mark. On his stable debut back in November over course and distance he was beaten 10 lengths by DOLPHIN SQUARE and he stayed on nicely that day too. DOLPHIN SQUARE went up 5lbs and won again. This horse will definitely give you a run for your money in the latter stages. If the likes of SUSSEX RANGER & THE BIG BREAKWAY are just in a lull now that will help this lad up the placings so I'm keeping an eye on him for the foreseeable, and I think this is a good chance to run well
14:25 - Denman Chase - 2m 7f 86y
CLAN DES OBEAUX is a horse that on his day is capable of a top tier performance. The slight niggle with him alongside the potential Stable form is that he didn't look like he wanted to win here last year and was beaten. Then put up an unreal performance twice in Cheekpieces before running just an OK race in the King George. Maybe those Cheek pieces won't work much longer, and Ruby commented before Aintree that he would have thought blinkers would be better for the horse, although happy to admit his was wrong after. He's a class above these, but again he's too short to risk for me.
ROYAL PAGAILLE I've just never been sold on as this potential Gold Cup horse, did well to win the last day in fairness but should only be winning this is CLAN underperforms for whatever reason so I'm not prepared to be backing him either
IMPERIAL AURA looked to be going quite well at Haydock, but then was pulled up after at Aintree which now means he's failed to complete in his last 4 taking us back to November 2020 when beating ITCHY FEET over 2m5f. Probably stays, but we don't know for sure but one hopeful line of form dates back to the Close Brothers Handicap at Cheltenham when beating GALVIN giving away 1lb and he's vying for Gold Cup favoritism. But that's a tenuous link
15:00 - Game Spirit - 2m 92y
Last years winner SCEAUX ROYAL is giving weight away all round, but he's most definitely the one to beat. Again I'll mention the Nicholls yard form, which we should have clues about by now (thinking of on the day betting), and I thought when this lad swerved the Clarence House that he'd be the on I'd want to back in here. However, his attitude when beat in the Haldon Gold Cup was not good at all and really his Tingle Creek second has inflated his OR. To date, he's done nothing to put him close to a 160 mark. FUNAMBULE SIVOLA should run well and rates the chief danger because EDITEUR DU GITE & SKY PIRATE.
SCEAU ROYAL is often under appreciated. He won this last year and everyone talked about how great the runner up CHAMP was. Probably could have won the Champion Chase with a better run last year after and I'll excuse him after at Sandown because he's not always his best round there. This season he put in a monster performance to beat the late SILVER STREAK on conditions ideal for that runner, he then backed it up at Wincanton after. He ran an absolute stormer in the Fighting fifth considering it was driving snow and then the international I'm happy to draw a line through as it came too quick. At this price this lad is now, he rates a bet for the weekend
