Cheltenham November Sunday

 13:10 – Novices’ Chase – 3m ½f

 

DOES HE KNOW

2 from 2 over fences including a course a distance win the last day where UNDERSUPERVISION ran through the rail on the run in and I remember watching that in real time thinking he might have been beaten 

 

THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE

Behind DOES HE KNOW at Chepstow but was always going to improve with experience and duly stepped forward at Exeter after. Possibly would prefer soft conditions but no real excuse here

 

STREETS OF DOYEN

Had won here over hurdles and was 3rd in the Albert Bartlett. On these terms has a chance, but was very poor the last day so can’t afford to jump or travel like that again

 

OSCAR ELITE

Second in the Albert Bartlett here and should absolutely make a better chaser. The yard wasn’t quite firing last season either, but they are flying right now. In receipt of weight means he’s got his chance and was entered at this meeting last month so I think he’s been ready for a while now

 

UNDERSUPERVISION

I do think he would have been very close to beating DOES HE KNOW if not for running out the last day and that was his Chase debut and he’s only has 3 runs over hurdles. That means for me there’s much more to come and clearly has a chance

 

Summary

Could see any one of the five landing this and more than ever jumping will be crucial to the result. I do rate DOES HE KNOW but I think he may have been beaten the last day or close to it and while he beat THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE that horse looks much improved after. OSCAR ELITE is a very interesting recruit to fences, and a blemish free round with the weight he receives put him right there. UNDERSUPERVISION can only improve and was so close here last month you have to give him every chance again. Wide open affair and I’ll be interested to see how they price them before deciding where I might find a play

 

 

13:45 – Handicap Chase – 3m 3½f

 

YALA ENKI

 

GO ANOTHER ONE

 

FORZA MILAN

 

EMPIRE DE MAULDE

 

THE MIGHT DON

 

ROCKY’S TREASURE

 

 

14:20 – Shloer Chase – 2m

 

NUBE NEGRA

Jump at the last arguably cost him a Champion Chase victory in March and has a great record fresh

 

POLITOLOGUE

Champion Chaser in 2020 but fear his best days are behind him

 

ROUGE VIF

Beat NUBE NEGRA in the Kingmaker as a Novice and Handicap effort here last October was pretty eye catching. Better the ground the better his chance but not out of it on these terms

 

PUT THE KETTLE ON

4 from 4 round here and I often try to find reasons to take her on but she’s only 7 going 8 so could yet have more to come

 

Summary

I’d struggle to split NUBE NEGRA & PUT THE KETTLE ON but I’d have slight preference for the former. HoweverROUGE VIF is punty enough as you don’t know which version will turn up but on these terms he’s worth a tentative punt around 7-8/1

 

14:55 – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½f

 

ADAGIO

Runs here after a summer break and wind surgery. Found out a little in the spring G1’s but was far from disgraced finishing second both here and at Aintree. 147 wouldn’t look the most lenient mark but hard to not see him being there or there abouts at the business end of this race

 

BALLYANDY

Just 3 wins from 22 starts and although he’s amassed a third of a million in prizemoney I’d initially be looking to oppose him. However, that said, if there was a deluge of rain I could see him running well and he would certainly be overprice, but that forecast is unlikely. Was second in this race last year off an 8lbs higher mark, but was never in the race last month at Ffos Las whereas last year he was second in the same race prior

 

JESSE EVANS

4th in the Galway Hurdle in Ireland behind SALDIER and only runs here in the UK off a 4lb higher mark. 7 runs over hurdles with 2 wins shows this 5yo can win races and likely has more to come, especially with the ground very much in his favour

 

GLORY AND FORTUNE

Good winner of the Welsh Champion Hurdle last month and the 8lb rise seems about fair. Ran here in December 2019 and as a little underwhelming considering how well in he ran the time after behind BUZZ. Maybe just not up to this but wouldn’t want to put anyone who fancies him off

 

TRITONIC

Beaten by a better horse the last day and despite giving that runner 8lbs I’d fancy the winner to progress passed him. Wouldn’t be for me

CAMPROND

Impressive winner of the Perisian War and despite that looking like, and being a weak renewal there was lots to like about the way he did things. Raced and won here after, where probably never looking in doubt and the mark of 140 would have looked high if you asked me before those two runs, but now I think it’s a fair number and the drop back in trip can help. He’s also the horse who when I profiled the race came out on top, and clearly on top too

 

BOTOX HAS

Ran over fences last month when falling at the first and was last seen at the festival pulling up in the coral cup off 142. 2lbs lower now and this trip should be more suitable, but this wouldn’t have been the plan although has a chance

 

TUDOR CITY

2 wins from 28 hurdle runs shows he’s no winning machine but can put in some decent runs from time to time, including in that Galway hurdle when a little over 2 lengths behind JESSE EVANS off levels but now gets 4lb. Style of running (from the back) may not suit this course, but I think he’ll run a massive race at a big price and Maxine O’Sullivan notched up a 3 timer on THE JAM MAN over here, although not quite in this class of race. Her usual mount (SUPER CITIZEN) runs in Punchestown but she’s here instead

 

ROCKADENN

Has left Paul Nicholls and has his first start for the new yard here, can only be a fact-finding mission

 

BUA BOY

Irish Raider with 6lb UK tax added onto his mark. Last won in August 2020 off a 17lb lower mark so while running well he’s likely to find at least a few too good here

 

MARIE’S ROCK

Was backed the last day but ultimately couldn’t get near a runaway winner. Likely she’d better than she showed that day. Well beaten favourite last season in the Gerry Fieldon but was hampered after two out, at which she’d already decided to hang. Maybe she sulks but she’s got ability if she decided to throw it all in

 

STRAW FAN JACK

Ran a big race here last month when beaten a head. Now up 2lbs into a harder race means I think he’s held

 

WEST CORK

Has been off for a long time. Reason to think his mark of 134 is doable as he looked a nice prospect in 2019/20. Hard to really evaluate because of the layoff but there’s been money for him although I think he’s plenty short enough now and breeding suggests he wants a trip

 

ADVANCED VIRGO

Held with BUA BOY on his Listowel run (beaten 6 getting 4lb, now gets 3lb) and not for me

 

NO ORDINARY JOE

His mark off 133 is hard to trust given he won easily back in May but beating a 110 horse and the followed up with another comfortable win beating a now 122 hurdler. Both those wins came at the middle trip which is where I see his future lying for this season at least and he was a fit horse last spring. Really does fall into the could be anything category but should really be suited to a fastly run 2m handicap so you can see why he’s where he is in the market. Similar ish profile to CHAMP, who was a second season Novice who started off him a Handicap in which he bolted up before running 2nd in a Ballymore

 

MOUNT WINDSOR

Poor in his last two starts and this is even tougher

 

CORMIER

I fancied him for the Welsh Champion Hurdle where he was just beaten by better horses on the day. Can expect another nice run here but will want to be ridden more prominentlythan in the race last year but is 4lb lower now and probably a better horse so has a chance

 

GALICE MACALO

She was far too keen and well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle last season off a 3lb higher mark and travelling is usually her strong suit. Beaten at Chepstow earlier this season which she can step forward from but I can’t see her winning this

 

ROWLAND WARD

Up 9lbs since beating CAMPROND at Aintree last April but that was off levels so meets him here on 9lb better terms. That line of form alone means at 33/1 he’s maybe overpriced. Found trouble in both his starts this season but not enough to cost him. Drop back to 2m here should suit

 

MICK MAESTRO

Nothing really in his form to suggest he’s up to making his presence felt in here off 130

 

 

Summary

4yos in the race have won 4 renewals since 2006 but prior to that you’d need to go back to 1988 and most winners are aged 5 or 6. I do really like the idea of a punt on TUDOR CITY at a big price, and think with enhanced place terms he’s a definite play. NO ORDINARY JOE could well be a much better horse than his current mark and I do think he might just be a serious prospect so while he’s well found, I think he’s the one I like at the head of the market. CAMPROND came out on top with the stats pick when I profiled the race so he’s got to be mentioned as has Jamie’s fancy JESSE EVANS who is the right sort of age and progressive enough to go well here. CORMIER is a nice horse but I just can’t see him winning. My likely bets in here would be NO ORDINARY JOE with a smaller stake on CAMPROND and I’ll look to hit TUDOR CITY in the place markets

 

 

15:30 – The Sharp Novices’ Hurdle – 2m ½f

 

I LIKE TO MOVE IT

Carries a 3lb penalty but so much to like from his last run and win here because he looked quite immature which means there’s huge potential

 

SONIGINO

Stable debut for Paul Nicholls and purely one to watch as the horse he beat in June has since been hammered at Wetherby. Not for me 

 

PIKAR

Nice run behind a good horse at Chepstow but this is arguably tougher and the third from that race has been well beat since

 

WASHINGTON

Beat a nice horse in MARBLE SANDS who carried a penalty in that bumper. Won last month nicely on hurdling debut but I don’t think there was much in behind

 

Summary

I LIKE TO MOVE IT is the best horse in this field and although he’s raced more than the others, he looked to have so much more to come and is only a 4yo turning 5. Course and distance win latest is another huge positive and should take some beating

 

 

16:00 – Bumper – 2m ½f

 

AUCUNRISQUE

Gave weight away to the trio in front off him here in October and lost two places right by the line. On these terms can expect a bold bid but I’m just not sure how good he really is

 

DIBBLE DECKER

Winning point form which the second has shown to be only average

 

HARDY FELLA

Irish runner who was runner up in a bumper last month. Form looks nothing out of the ordinary

 

LEADING CHOICE

Won his bumper at Ffos Las last month at 16/1 and had bucked the jockey off pre-race. Be interesting to see how he handles the prelims, but I like him more than most

 

ROYAL MOGUL

Twice beaten in points and nothing in the breeding other than some middle distance stamina

 

SUKAT

Half sister has OK form after running on the flat. Curious more than anything

 

TIMEFORATUNE

A horse I was desperate to take on a Chepstow as I don’t believe his first bumper form is anything at all, but he got the job done and the pair pulled well clear and this doesn’t look any harder

 

FLYING SARA

Beat a now 118 rated hurdler with ease and by 8 lengths last October and that was her first run after winning her debut bumper in October 2019. Entitled to have progressed further and related to some nice enough types (Full Sister to SAMARQUAND a 130’s horse) and gets that 7lb maresallowance

 

Summary

Fairly weak looking race and I was always going to take on the Nicholls runner TIMEFORATUNE, however I genuinely fancy this FLYING SARA and if the 8 runners hold up then she’s a monster ew bet as 11/2. I fear her price may shrink slightly by then, especially with a non-runner, but she’s the one I want to be on here

Cheltenham November Friday - Every Runner, Every Race

 

13:10 – Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5f

 

THE WREKIN

Won under Ben Godfrey back in June and although the runner up won well at Perth the time after, both have since raced in handicaps with little to suggest they’re on winning marks

 

AN TAILLIUR

Has notched up 5 wins in row climbing from 94 up to today’s mark of 125. Slight drop back in trip here should help with the rise and plausible he can still run a big race, but must be vulnerable to an improver with a more lenient mark

 

BREAKING WAVES

Runs off 123 now and last won off 120 in a Class 4 handicap. At least has course experience from his time with his previous trainer and ran quite well despite being left far too much to do. Been kept busy this year and slightly exposed

 

SKATMAN

6 going 7 this season and I’d have thought they’d want to send him chasing by the end of this season but has only had the 3 runs under rules. Won nicely on debut and looked a more mature horse last month. 125 is his OR but gets in off 122 so technically 3lb well in and surely will end up much higher rated in time

 

FINISK RIVER

Been chasing the last twice but last ran off this mark in July an was only beaten a hd albeit in a weaker race. Jockey has ridden him twice although both times on heavy when this lad probably wants the better stuff now

 

FONTANA ELLISSI

Stable debut and has disappointed on his last start when beaten odds-on favourite. Last raced in a handicap back in May on good ground off a 7lb higher mark but was well beaten and not sure he’s running off a workable mark

 

ENEMENEMYNEMO

Made my shortlist at entry stage so I’m glad he’s running. The trainer won the last race on the Friday at this meeting last year too. I don’t know a lot about the jockey but this horse ticks a few boxes for trends on previous winners of the race. He’s here off a layoff, it’s his handicap debut and he’s in the right age bracket. JETAWAY JOEY who beat him the last day has won since in good style and the way this horse races (at the front) suits this course

 

NEON MOON

Another who made the shortlist and arguably was the better ‘ticker’ of the boxes. Layoff, handicap debut and right age but also has the perk of being trained by David Pipe who won this in 2019. Won last Marsh off the back of a wind op and sporting a first-time tongue tie. Now has the addition of Cheek-Pieces too. Runner up was a 9yo in that March win so can ignore what that’s done since, but the third who was 6lb behind and getting 7lbs is now rated 118 although still a Maiden

 

GROVEMAN

Irish Raider given an 8lb higher mark on these shores. Did win a handicap over about this trip at Cork back in may but that was off a 6lb lower mark and he was a big priced winner that day

 

SUBCONTINENT

Does have a win on good ground but arguably wants it a bit softer. 9yo with plenty of experience which typically doesn’t suit the profile for this race and hasn’t hurdled since 2019 when winning a Class 4 over this trip off a 5lb lower mark

 

ALOHAMORA

Another Irish Raider racing off a 6lb higher mark here. 2 from 22 over hurdles and last won off a 6lb lower mark, in first time cheek-pieces but that was over 3m

 

BALLINSLEA BRIDGE

First run here for Robin Dickin having moved yards from Olly Murphy to Gary Moore. 9 years old now and clearly had issues so likely a run for fitness and or confidence booster before going back over fences

 

APPLE ROCK

Last seen at the April meeting here beaten 8 lengths off a 2lb higher mark. Does go well fresh although looks held by the handicapper

 

ART APPROVAL

Ran here at the October meeting and down 1lb from that. Chance of running well if able to settle better but had a mistake in him, and possibly passes tired horses as opposed to finishing his races strongly

 

BILLINGSLEY

Had a decent campaign back in 19/20 but that was while chasing. Quite poor since and was well beaten when last hurdling in a handicap back in early 2019 and really wants slow ground

 

ASSERTED

Given an educational ride at Aintree and while the drop back will suit, I’m not sure he’ll be doing much other than learning a bit more in this. Fit looking horse though

 

CAPTAIN BLACKPEARL

First start for Dr Newland and like a few in here, comes back over hurdles after chasing and possibly for a confidence boost. However, this lad could make 119 work, we know the Dr is capable of finding improvement and despite being 0 from 3 over hurdles he’s not without a chance here and any support is worth noting

 

JOHNNY B

0 from 8 under rules and 0 from 7 in points. Has been racing over further in all but his stable debut which may help and although this is a better race than he’s been contesting, he’d probably have more behind than in front in this

 

PARICOLOR

Yard won this in 2019 but I’d say he’s the second string. Another jockey I’m not too clued up on and most of his wins have some in selling hurdles. Likely social runner

 

MY BOBBY DAZZLER

Notched up back to back wins in May and June which put him up to this mark 118. Found out in better company the last day and probably the same outcome here too

 

Summary

So my shortlist coming into this race consisted of two; NEON MOON & ENEMENEMYNEMO with slight preference for the former which remains. SKATMAN was also a standout entrant so I’d say the winner comes from that trio. You’ll know I’m a price driven bettor so I’d need to see the market before committing to a back, but I suspect SKATMAN & NEON MOON will both be toward the head of the betting with the former a likely favourite. I’d be surprised if ENEMENEMYNEMO was much more than a 10-14/1 poke so he’d be an auto-bet with enhanced place terms if so

 

 

13:45 – Handicap Chase – 2m

 

MAGIC SAINT

Won this race last year off the same mark so that make him of obvious interest and usually kicks on from his first run back (won second time out the last two seasons)

 

HATCHER

Has picked up handicap chase wins over the summer but I do think he’s held in this company, despite racing in Class 2’s the last 4 times

 

MOON OVER GERMANY

Most remembered for his 2019 Aintree win but hard pressed to fancy him now he’s changed yard and still looks plenty high in the weights

 

STOLEN SILVER

Second season novice chaser s there’s race to be won with him this term but his mark of 140 looks to be manageable when you consider he has form behind the like of ALLMANKIND, ELDORAO ALLEN and CHANTRY HOUSE. Won on stable debut and likely more to come

 

EDITEUR DU GITE

Doesn’t jump straight (goes off left and right) which is a concern here and unseated last time out. 140 looks a fair enough mark to be given back on his two spring Handicap wins, but he’s up 15lbs from those two races and maybe just held for now

 

BUN DORAN

Veteran now who is down to 140 which is 2lbs higher than when landing a similar race back in 2018 at this meeting by 8 lengths. Yard form is a worry though and the horse hasn’t been in any form for a couple of years now, although he’s been tried in much better company

 

FANZIO

Achieved his mark of 138 in weaker company so not for me

 

KAP AUTEUIL

Up 32lbs from winning his last four starts but this is his biggest test to date and I’m sure there will be at least one too good

 

BATHIVA

Last won a handicap in August off a 4lb lower mark and is up against it in here

 

Summary

We know being on the front end in these races usually pays dividends, and while MAGIC SAINT isn’t arriving here in such form as last season, you can’t ignore him. STOLEN SILVER looks to be the one to side with although he’s well found in the market and he’ll face a challenge form EDITEUR DE GITE, who’s jumping could cause some issues in the race. Probably a race I’d rather watch than hold a strong view in. BUN DORAN has plenty to not like, but in his pomp he’d absolutely batter these, so he’ll get a very small and token selection

 

14:20 – Novices’ Chase – 2m 4f

 

FANCY FOUNDATIONS

Has his work cut out on all known form and giving weight away here

 

GIN ON LIME

Should prove popular given the manner of her latest win and has lots of experience on her side despite being just 5

 

MY DROGO

Clearly a very nice horse and a Grade 1 winner despite how much I might knock Aintree G1’s. Definitely progressed with each run last season so if taking off where he left last term he’s the right favourite, but he’s plenty short enough despite the small field and how well the yard get these novices jumping

 

Summary

Sit back and watch race I think. MY DROGO could be something very special. But these are the kinds of races you can just watch and see how things go. I see no value in backing him at such short odds in a race with one genuine challenger should he either need the run, or make any mistakes

 

 

14:55 – Cross Country Handicap Chase – 3m 6f

BALKO DES FLOS

Well backed here for the big one in March but in this version as a handicap you’d be happy to see him run well and place. Best horse in the race but weighted as such

 

TALKISCHEAP

A horse I like but I fear we’ll never see his full potential. Hard to make a strong case here but is a dour stayer at least

 

FREEWHEELIN DYLAN

Won the Irish Grand National 150/1 last season so running now off a much higher mark but has that big staying race experience but maybe vulnerable here

 

ALPHA DES OBEAUX

Runs off 144 here which is arguably a bit harsh on his recent form however he was 4^th in the 2021 Cross Country proper and in receipt of weight from some you can expect a better showing here

 

POTTERS CORNER

11lb lower than when beaten 7l in this race last season so that form alone makes him noteworthy. Came in off the back of wins last term so tef om isn’t quite the same but you’d trust he’s wound up and ready for this

 

BACK ON THE LASH

Fairly unexposed chaser having only the 6 starts and winning 3 of those. Course winner over hurdles but I’m not really sure he wants this kind of test

 

PLAN OF ATTACK

Runs here off a fair mark I think and was one I backed last year in the Kim Muir. Enough about him to make him interesting but like many in here, it’s an unknown how he’ll take to the fences

 

DIESEL D’ALLIER

Backed him in 2019 for this race while supping a pint in the Guinness village because I’d barely looked at the card and made a late case for him. Won well enough that day but 12lbs higher now and that was his last win

 

VOLCANO

I remember him being sent off favourite in the 4yo bumper on New Years day here back in 2018 and didn’t think he’d be a cross country runner by now. Stays though, handles any ground and has had a pipe opener last month at Aintree. Not sure he’s up to this off 135 as out of the handicap, but if taking to the discipline he could go well at a price

 

FOX PRO

Yet to win over fences and not one I’d be backing from out the handicap

 

SINGING BANJO

13lbs out of the handicap so hard to see him winning

 

FRIENDS DON’T ASK

21lbs out of the handicap so again I’d ignore

 

SIGURD

30lbs out the handicap enough said

 

Summary

There are some classy horses in here and I think there are clues for the future. Personally, I wouldn’t bet in this kind of race unless it was over a pint so ALPHA DES OBEAUX will take a token vote and maybe buy me another Guinness

 

 

 

15:30 – The Hyde Novices’ Hurdle – 2m 5f

 

OFF YOUR ROCCO

Ground probably as slow as he’d want it the last day but still won nicely and looks/is a nice prospect. Giving 5lbs away won’t be easy but a good chance all the same

 

BLAZING KHAL

Hard to grab a real handle on this lads ability as he’s won the last twice (hurdle and bumper) with the most recent run being somewhat franked by the runner up back in a bumper, but his win prior has not been well advertised. Trusted solely on his Maiden Hurdle win, you’d think he’s capable of a fair run at least

 

GELINO BELLO

Was very impressive at Aintree and I think that’s the race ON THE BLIND SIDE took in before wining here himself. Form reads well from his bumper at Newbury too so leading claims on these terms

 

GLENCASSLEY

Looks a nice stayer and is 2 from 2 over hurdles, but I think he lacks the class to win this

 

KAYF HERNANDO

Should step forward from his winning debut last month but needs to take a big step forward for me

 

KIHAVAH

Might well run at Market Rasen on Thursday but no chance here anyway

 

CURRENT MOOD

OK pointer but is 2 from 2 since joining Evan Williams and seems to respond well when asked. She’s one at a price you could see causing problems in the final stages if she can travel with them for long enough

 

Summary

OFF YOUR ROCCO is a nice horse and hopefully will at least run his race, which might not be quite enough to land this is GELINO BELLO can repeat and take normal progression from that Aintree win last month. CURRENT MOOD is in receipt of plenty of weight but would still need to run in the 130’s to threaten, however if she travels into this, I think she’s got a turn of foot and she seems to respond pretty quickly when asked, although I doubt she’ll be able to get first run on these

 

 

16:00 – Novices’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½f

 

PERCYS WORD

Stand out line of form is when beating Persian War winner CAMPROND in receipt of 4lbs back in September but has failed to build on that since, with two seconds, both times beaten favourite. Maybe being an older horse he’s reached his peak for this year as he’s also been kept busy but can run well if the big field isn’t an issue

 

HOWDYALIKEMENOW

Two runs and two wins for this yard showing definite ability in the first race and then good attitude to respond under a hard drive on the second. Should be suited to handicapping and 122 looks about fair

 

LONGACRE SQUARE

Irish Raider with an 8lb UK tax applied. He’s only had the one spin for this new yard but ran well considering he was held up, made mistakes and the jockey dropped his whip. Interesting, especially if any money comes

 

SKIPPIN COURT

Another Irish Raider this time with 9lbs added. Won his Maiden a couple of months ago at Listowel and really that form probably needs upgrading with the second winning after and he pair leaving a 109 (now 107) rated horse in their wake. Interesting runner for sure

 

CASTEL GANDOLFO

Has won a handicap and placed twice since but is up 5lbs for the privilege and looks held in this better race

 

SAMBA DANCER

Good run with good attitude to win here last month but up another three pounds having started for this yard at 107 means he’s another I think could just be held for win purposes

 

MANINSANE

Comfortably won a Market Rasen Maiden last month and comes here as a second season novice hurdler. That race he won was marred with the favourite suffering a fatal injury early in the race

 

BRORSON

Ran a huge race here last month when only beaten by the gambled on TOP BANDIT for Gordon Elliott but I’m not sure how good that race really was. His form behind BROOMFIELD BURG hasn’t been franked since and the second in first hurdle race was poor after so I’m not convinced his mark is too kind but maybe about right

 

SASHENKA

0 from 5 over hurdles but second 4 times and fell in the other race so clearly tries hard. She’s up to 120 now and outside of mares company I think she’s vulnerable but with that said the quick turnaround in her runs means she’s 4lbs well in, which more than half the regular sex allowance which will clearly help

 

URABAMBA

Left Henry De Bromheads this summer to join Kayley Woolacott but this would appear to be more of a fact-finding mission than a genuine opportunity

 

BYZANTINE EMPIRE

Fresh from a wind op for Fergal O’Brien and has won just before that too. Only up 1lb since running second to CELESTIAL FORCE but the form has been let down since and I’m not sold

 

MC ALPINE

Another Irish runner who gets in here with a 7lb higher mark. Up 10lbs from his last winning handicap mark in Ireland which came a couple of months ago and while his form isn’t inspiring, on Good ish ground he’s 6421 with the first two runs behind CASH BACK & ABACADBRAS and the second two in handicap company. Might just be high enough in the weights now but could be overpriced

 

JUST THE MAN

Won last month at the 8h time of asking and has shown glimpses of promise up to now. Only 5 going 6 but probably held for win purposes

 

KAVANAGHS CROSS

Only a nk away from winning last month and up 2lbs for that. That was his third start for his new yard and still retains potential

 

CITY DERBY

I’ve been waiting for this horse to make his handicap bow because I think he has loads more to come (Like a stone easy). Forget his rating for a minute, his two hurdle starts to date have come up in Perth so the snob in me knows that’s a lesser standard of racing. His hurdle debut he was ridden by Brian Hughes, he jinked two out, wasn’t really asked or much until after the last where he responded a bit only to be softly handled to the line with his finishing position already secured. The run after he was ridden by Paddy on soft ground and beat Brians mount while being sent off second fav. He took his time to get going when first ridden, around two out, but a high enough head carriage and dare I say a little green or idling from him to the line suggested there’s more in him. The runner up that day was soundly beaten although officially 3 lengths and is rated 117 in his own right. Even back to his bumper at Newbury where a well beaten 5^th of 9, he was under 2 lengths behind 4^th, who recently ran 11 lengths behind STAGE STAR, who in his bumpers ran KNAPPERS HILL close twice

 

 

FLAMENCO DE KERSER

Fairly low level of form in terms of any depth despite the notable name of GO DANTE appearing on his file when beaten him on rules debut in a bumper. Very keen, free and green type so there should be no end of improvement to come from him and should appreciate the sterner test that this race will offer. Interesting

 

VOCAL DUKE

Has won two handicaps in his last two start, both times well fancied and was fairly impressive the last day. 7lb rise may not be enough to halt his progress, but faces toughest test to date here

 

THE SWAGMAN

Just the 3 hurdle runs and all back in 2019. Was fanciedto beat both YOUR BAND (115) & ALNADAM (125h/145c) and even bumped into the likes of MCFABULOUS & WELSH SAINT in bumpers. Had two quick flat spins after a 664 day break so hard to know how well he is, or how much he’s progressed but being a 7yo now you’d think he’s more forward than when we saw him in 2019 so the mark of 108 doesn’t look out of reach with some racecourse fitness on his side

 

KALYPTRA

This lad wants a fast run race where he’s not just going it alone and I think handicapping will suit him, especially a Novice handicap where they might go a bit faster than normal. He was second in his point and the winner has since run close to UHTRED in Ireland which is better form than this lads current mark. That point winner was also 20l behind OTOOLE, who then ran second to KILCRUIT at Punchestown so again that’s not reading to me like 108 rated form. The return of the Hood says to me they’re having a go here, and I think he’s a very lively outsider

 

BELGOPRINCE

Another Irish Raider who is 0 from 6 and never closer than 11l to a winner. Hard to make any case for

 

Summary

This may be a 0-125 race but it’s a very interesting contest. I think I can make a solid case for a few in here, which unfortunately tempers enthusiasm to get stuck into CITY DERBY, who I really do think is way ahead of his mark when he learns how to race. KALYPTRA is another who I think has lots of room off his current mark and the re-applied hood excites me. That said they’d be my two against the field, with eyes on the likes of; THE SWAGMAN, FLAMENCO DE KERSER, SKIPPIN COURT and LONGACRE SQUARE

Cheltenham Friday 22nd October

 

13:55

 

CAMPROND 

Decent winner of the Persian War at Chepstow and despite that looking a weak renewal, he put some distance between himself and the others so in the scheme of this race, he setsthe standard

 

MARS HARPER

One of two for Elliott and Pioneer Racing with Davy booked. First win came this summer on gd ground and won the last day over just shy of today’s trip. Not too sure he’s the better of the two syndicate horses

 

OFF YOUR ROCCO

Ran on the 10th of October so this comes quick enough. Genuinely looks and very smart prospect for these middle trips

 

BANNIXTOWN BOY

Highest RPR under rules is just 102 and has run mostly on soft ground. Social runner

 

ALL CLENCHED UP

Probably another social runner, OR of just 109 and the step up on her penultimate run did exactly show her in the best light

 

Summary

This is a match between CAMPROND & OFF YOUR ROCCO, with that said, I’m curious to the fact Elliott has left both Pioneer horses in against each other. Jack has no other rides whereas Davy has three on the card, that would suggest to me that maybe we won’t actually see ROCCO, so it may prove fruitful to back CAMPROND when the market opens up to benefit from the Rule 4 rather than in the revised marketwhere he’ll be long odds on

 

 

14:30

 

FIDELIO VALLIS

Shoulders an 8lb penalty which on OR’s makes things quite close between a few. Has lots of experience though and ran well at Chepstow really behind a good horse in TEA CLIPPER especially as his best form has come over a bit shorter than that trip at Chepstow

 

SIR TIVO

Huge step up in class here and concedes weight to the field bar one. Hard to fancy

 

ANY NEWS

Ran a nice chase debut last month when only narrowly beaten in a Handicap. Has form at this track from December last season over hurdles but that was on the new course. Entitled to come on for that debut s in the mix, but may just find one too good

 

BUDDY RICH

0/3 over fences so far but behind some nice types in BLEU BERRY, DANCING ON MY OWN & CAPE GENTLEMAN. Only reached 121 over hurdles in Ireland and already a 130’s chaser, this 8yo is lightly raced but shouldn’t be the best horse in this field

 

THIRD TIME LUCKI

Death, taxes and Dan Skelton’s Novice Chasers jumping like bucks on their debuts. This horse ran 7 times last season in just 6 months so it’s not surprising he was over the top come the spring in my opinion. They’ve obviously given him a break, and a wind op, so really this is probably the time to catch him and we know he handles both courses here too. Exciting one for the first few months of the season I think

 

Summary

I’d be fairly confident that THIRD TIME LUCKI will be capable of jumping soundly on debut so despite that level of risk, and the yard being quiet, he’s the one I want to side with here. FIDELIO VALLIS has the experience and will be suited by the drop back in trip, but does have to give the selection 8lbs which I think will make the difference. ANY NEWS can run well but I’m keen to take on Irish Raider BUDDY RICH despite his match fitness

 

 

15:05

BARDENSTOWN LAD

Trainer John McConnell took this race last year with STREETS OF DOYEN for the same connections. He’d also already won over the trip and this horse looks a similar mould,in that he stays very well. One for the short list for sure

CADAGOGO

Elliott and Pioneer racing team up again here with this horse looking for his 4th win in a row. Spring a bit of a surprise the last day when stepping up in trip and back on home soil but I wonder if he’s vulnerable on this track with some strong stayers in the field

 

DRUMLEE WATER

Worth a try in here after handicap success at Perth off a mark of 125 over the 3m trip. H’s 4/5 since wind surgery this summer but this a big step up in class and wouldn’t be my idea of the winner

 

ONAGATHERINGSTORM

Finished second between two nice horses at Uttoxeter back in March and staying races will surely suit, but the last run came in a three horse race, so regardless of how easy he won, he beat a 106 rated horse home but has the benefit of being a second season novice

 

DRAGON BONES

Like quick ground and has only been beaten once when completing to date so clearly has ability and the desire to win. Not convinced he’s up to this, but could be proved wrong

 

ALMAZHER GARDE

0/4 as a hurdler and his last run in that sphere came as a 4yo behind GLORY AND FORTUNE in October 19 and we know that horse has just won the Welsh Champion hurdle off a mark in the 130’s. This horse is rated 139 over fences but was well held here at the festival off 135, so again I don’t he’s classy enough to win this, but hopefully can run well after a below par ending to the last season

 

GRACE A VOUS ENKI

Beaten favourite earlier this month on debut for the yard but only narrowly and it was by a confirmed high 120’s horse if not just a 130 horse. So with usual progression this horse should comfortably achieve the 130’s in staying hurdles, although I’d argue he may want a bit more time before he wants this kind of test, despite the ground and receiving weight helping with that

 

SIRUH DU LAC

David Pipe landed this race for connections in 2019 with RAMSES DE TEILEE and this looks a similar situation to me. This horse hasn’t raced over hurdles since he was a Juvenile and that dates back to early 2017. Has had issues since winning the Brown Advisory in 2019 and has changed yards, so it’s not quite the same approach as RAMSES. But we know he’s a mid 140’s horses which would in receipt of weight from most of the field means he’s on paper the one to beat. The issues he’s had though make him a tentative selection and of the remainder of the field I’d say BARDENSTOWN LAD would interest me most

 

 

15:40

 

FAIVOIR

Best form over hurdles came when stepping up in trip at the back end of last season so his debut performance over fences back at 2m at the beginning of this month can probably be upgraded. This said, the yard isn’t exactly firing right now, and I’m no totally convinced his mark of 144 is as generous as some others in here but a nice prospect all the same

 

BACK ON THE LASH

Has 3 wins from 4 chase starts this season but all of those came over further. Has won at this track albeit on the new course, and over hurdles he was well beaten in a handicap in 2019 off just 125

 

ANNUAL INVICTUS

Second to FAIVIOR on his chasing debut but only by 2 and a half lengths and gets an 8lb pull now. Good 4th in the Betfair Hurdle off 135 and that race is working out well

 

DANNY KIRWAN

Has never really shown what he’s made of following the hype surrounding him after his point and he is an 8yo going on 9 now. He beat TIME FLIES BY at Ascot which at the time looked strong form but doesn’t read so well now. He’s a half brother to APPRECIATE IT, although that’s where the resemblance ends. Sure he’ll win a race this season over fences, just don’t think it’ll be this

 

TORN AND FRAYED

Behind FAIVOIR here back in April while getting 4lbs, but was comfortably handled so not sure he’s going to be able to reverse that form

 

Summary

I think the key line of form in this race comes from FAIVOIR & ANNUAL INVICTUS who faced off on their chasing debuts earlier this month. The 8lb swing in favour of ANNUAL INVICTUS sways things in his favour for me, but this is the sort of race where price would make an influence on how I’d bet. I’d hope we’d get a bigger price for INVICTUS than FAIVOIR, if it was the other way round, I’m not entirely convinced I’d want to take him on as INVICTUS wasn’t the greatest jumper of a hurdler

 

16:15

 

GUARD YOUR DREAMS

6th in the Betfair Hurdle (form ties with ANNUAL INVICTUS) then a respectable 7th in the Coral Cu before another good effort when 3rd behind MY DROGO. Up 5lbs since then and doesn't scream out to me to be lightly treated, but progressive and this looks his trip

 

SAINT SONNET

9lb swing with GUARD YOUR DREAMS on their Coral Cup run and there was only 6 lengths between them. Beaten after in a weaker handicap off a 3lb lower mark (than the coral cup) but sported first time cheekpieces that day which they've persisted with here

 

COOLE CODY

10yo with plenty of experience round here but reverts back hurdles for the first time for Evan Williams. I think that's smart as his mark of 135 looks doable still at this age, he handles most ground  and last won over hurdles off 136 at the November meeting in 2017. Not sure the Jockey booking inspires confidence but still has his chance 

CLEMENCIA

5th in the 2020 boodles on debut for this yard off a 6lb higher mark but has been in no real form since. Stepping up in trip should suit, and he didn't have many runs last season so just maybe open to further improvement as he is only 5

 

DAL HORRISGLE

Alan King is in great form right now and this lad is 2lbs lower than his last run when sent off 11/4 in a similar race last month. Had won this summer and has his wind done before that last start so could possibly forgive that poor run and may be capable of more than he's shown, but does need to take a step forward and ground may be key to him

 

CAPTAIN MORGS

I remember a time when he was reported as being quite a machine and he's been sent off short off in 5 or his 6 starts. His second run came at Ascot where he beat ANNUAL INVICTUS off levels and there's 10 between that pair now so I'm happy to say he's much better than this current mark. Was travelling well enough when falling at the back end of last season which came against a 129 rated horse who I think he had well covered

 

SOMETIMES ALWAYS

6yo who strung three wins together last season starting in a handicap off 121, then a novice hurdle then a jumpers bumper. Beaten comfortably after but that was in better races so a chance now back in class and off this mark of 124

 

ART APPROVAL

Landed a Handicap in April on GF ground, and that was Exeter so it will have been like concrete. In fairness he won on Heavy before that so looks versatile and was beaten about 5 lengths at this meeting by FAIVOIR last year who is now rated 140, so 121 looks manageable, especially with another summer under his belt and this trip looks like once he's been crying out for and of course has that experience from round here last season

 

FOUND ON

This mare won in her own sex last month and is up 7lbs form that. Was 40/1 in that Maiden Hurdle mentioned before when falling behind FAIVOIR & ART APPROVAL so off the same mark the latter makes much more appeal

 

FITZROY

Has left Olly Murphy now and this will be his first run for new yard. Has scope off this mark but has been poor the last twice he's been seen and those runs came just a couple of months ago

 

MULLAGHMORE WAVE

Irish mare who is rated 116 here and was last seen winning against her own sex off 98 at Downpatrick over 2m 6f. Doesn't look likely to me, but the trainer knows how to win here

 

CALVINIST

Won two handicap hurdles this summer starting from a mark of 104. Probably held now and this is a much better race than he faced in his last few runs

 

Summary

Happy to whittle this race down to just two runners who are CAPTAIN MORGS & ART APPROVAL. The former doesn't look straightforward but clearly has a huge engine and the latter may have just been set up for a crack at this race from a long time out. The step in trip will certainly suit him so takes slight preference but I'll be dutching the pair

 

 

16:50

 

REDFORD ROAD

0 from 4 over fences but I think plenty expect there is still more to come from this horse. He's won at Cheltenham, albeit on the new course but you'd be taking a leap of faith to trust he's back to form and capable of chasing now

 

BOUGHTBEFORELUNCH

2nd in this race last year off a 6lb lower mark but arguably the ground may have been a bit slow for him last year so that maybe balances out the rise

 

BALLYEGAN HERO

10yo who is just 2 from 24 over fences but has bits of form to make him interesting although he's quite an in and out performer

 

MARQUIS OF CARABAS

11yo making his debut for Fergal O'Brien and is just 1 from 18 over fences and 2 from 30 under rules. Not for me

 

BERMEO

Last years winner off a 13lb lower mark, first run for new yard and all that said is enough to put me off him

 

PETITE POWER

12yo who left Fergal but now returns. Won this in 2019 off a 2lb lower mark but surely vulnerable to a younger horse

 

FIRST CLASS RETURN

Two wins over fences last spring saw him climb 16lbs in the handicap but was sent off 8/11 off this mark on his last start with excuses for the defeat so there's no doubt they think he can win off this number

 

SUPER CITIZEN

Irish raider run off 9lbs higher than his Irish mark and just one win from 13 chase starts under rules

 

DEBDEN BANK

Two wins this summer which followed a nice win in first time cheek pieces last December. Has had a wind op since those summer runs and relatively unexposed but not sure 116 is a doable number

 

ELAN DE BALME

Wants this kind of test and has had wind surgery although that didn't help before. is 2 from 13 over fences although the wins came in France but one I'm keen to keep an eye on and that I expect to be staying on strongly at the finish

JEAN GENIE

Ran a stormer at a big price earlier this month at Chepstow as clipped heels early on. Looks in need of this extended 3m trip so plenty to like despite this 5yo being yet to get his head in front

 

CARNET DE STAGE

Another Irish Raider this time one who is 10lbs higher than his native rating. Was impressive at Downpatrick and that was stepping up in trip for the first time so likeable claims

 

LEN BRENNAN

yet to win from 7 starts over fences but comes here off the back of what appeared to be a prep run over hurdles in the summer where he ran OK. Jockey is 3 from 7 over fences this season and there is absolutely no doubt he's better than this mark. To pick one line of form to suggest that would be his Novice Chase run behind OK CORRAL & IMPULSIVE STAR. Where he was only 2 lengths from winning and that was over 3m 1 1/2f in 2018 as a 5yo 

DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT

Narrowly beaten in a similar event at Haydock last April off a 4lb lower mark means he needs a second look. Had a spin over fences earlier this month which I think will have been to bring about fitness. He's 2 from 6 over fences so boasts a far better strike rate than most of these and has more to come at this trip

 

FACT OF THE MATTER

Down to a very low mark now of just 111 and has some really good course form. 11yo now but has been kept busy this summer so comes here in good fitness and all the while they've been bringing that mark down. Has to be there or there abouts surely?

 

STRICTLYADANER

Career high mark for win purposes now and well behind JEAN GENIE earlier this month. Also runs well fresh so no excuse for me last time out

 

FURIUS DE CIERGUES

Another handicap climber in 2021 and this mark just looks too high at the moment but comes off the back of a nice prep run and only 6

 

MADERA MIST

Only win came here on the new course last December but it was over 2m 4 1/2f and a 9lb lower mark

 

Summary

This race looks an absolute minefield so don't take my advice to seriously or let me put you off your fancies. I probably won't play in this race but will need it for the final leg of the pools and I'd be looking for cover. FACT OF THE MATTER cannot be ignored here and off this lowly mark of 111 so he's on the slip and DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT has more to come and a good record up to now so is included despite lacking experience. FIRST CLASS RETURN & JEAN GENIE also make my shortlist but so do CARNET DE STAGE & LEN BRENNAN, the latter mostly on account of the Jockeys form this year. Hope that helps :D

 

 

17:25

 

ADJOURNMENT

Runner up twice in modest point events, yard not amongst the winners

 

BALLYBREEZE

‘invincible when fell 2 out’ in his point but has run in a hood in his rules debut and well beat last month on hurdle bow

 

BRORSON

Ran in the same hurdle race as BALLYBREEZE and was clear of that runner, but may not be up to this

 

CARDANO

Peaked at 100 on the flat and wont be lacking for race fitness or have any complaints if the ground is on the quick side

 

CIRQUE ROYAL

96 rated on the flat 2 years ago. Had two spins after long break but form of those race doesn’t look strong

 

GO DANTE

Nicely bred and Olly Murphy has had success with his sister. Was a nice winner of a Wincanton bumper back in March but the race lacked depth so hard to get a handle on how good he is, but has potential

 

JETOILE

Was a long way behind THE BIG BREAKWAY in his first point and has failed to win in 3 more attempts

 

LEBOWSKI

Has changed yards twice since 2020 and makes stable debut here after failing to win from 4 bumpers

 

MISTER WATSON

7yo who has run 2nd twice from 5 hurdles starts but would need a step forward even though this race looks weak enough

 

MR JORROCKS

Trainer Bred and managed a win with the Dam but hard to think she’ll be anything special

 

STRATTON OAKMONT

Peaked at 108 RPR on penultimate bumper. Should make a jumper and will want a trip in time

 

TOP BANDIT

Irish Raider who wasn’t beaten far earlier this month. Took plenty of time to win his bumper but this may be an easier task than back home so a chance

 

WILD SHOT

115 Rated Irish hurdler who shapes like he might further but I think just lacks a gear

 

JOHN LOCKE

I’m very excited to see this horse run. It’s only the 1lb he receives as a 4yo so it’s barely worth mentioning, but he was tried in a G2 and G1 respectively last season and although well beaten (21 & 26) that was in the Adonis behind TRITONIC and at Aintree behind MONMIRAL, arguably the two best British juvenile performances of the season. Bled at Aintree, so probably better than that result too, although it’s never good to try and trust a bleeder

 

Summary

Pretty weak finale but JOHN LOCKE I’d say is going to be the best of this bunch without doubt so I’d fully expect a bold show, and there’s no other horse I’d want to be on although not a race for heavy investment and it’s worth watching the market