GAELIC WARRIOR - a case in writing
Quick Reminder:
None of these horses have raced at The Cheltenham Festival, of course they're Juveniles. Most of the Irish runners haven't travelled over before and any horse can make a mistake or underwhelm on the day. So please stop using these are reasons why not to back a horse in this race, before then going on to tip up one or more horses in the same race. No-one is exempt, and if you're going to worry about mistakes, falls and bad days at the office, then betting on jumps racing probably isn't for you
Setting The Scene
You won’t need me to tell you that rating a horse after just a few runs is not an exact science and simply put; it never will be. There are far too many variables which in theory could be weighted to determine the correct figure, but most of those variables in terms of preferences are not yet known (ground, trip, track etc). Furthermore, horses are unique. They are broken and schooled differently, they are trained differently, they all have their own personalities and mentalities. However, I do think that my best guess is typically not far off the ‘norm’ so when I find something which looks grossly wrong, I’ll do my best to challenge it, then decide if I’m confident enough to follow my findings in. Typically, the glaringly obvious ones come in latter years, the likes of TOTAL RECALL winning the Hennessy off 147 then winning a handicap hurdle some two months later at 5/6 off 125 stand out like sore thumbs but it doesn’t always transpire quite like that. TOUT EST PERMIS was a similar case when running behind DOUVAN off 156 then sent off 6/4 favourite for a Handicap Hurdle on his next start off 122. The main difference with these two examples was their last chase run coming into the handicap was on opposite ends of the scale. Now in the instance that TOUT EST PERMIS was beaten, I’ll gloat at the fact in my write up I stated that THE JAM MAN was the only threat, he won the race at 33/1. So this is where my argument in the video preview talks about those who are risk adverse looking to play even some short ones EW. Now of course there can be a limit to how low you go, but where I think something is grossly underrated, I don’t see it quite the same as most where they should either bolt up or pull up. I see these as horses with enough foundation to say they should win, however any inconvenience like sloppy jumping or not handling the track will NOT be enough to stop them running a big race despite it possibly allowing for a sleeper in the race to topple them. So in a race like the Fred Winter we know there could be a few well handicapped runners. Anyway, I’ve digressed, I’ve backed this lad win only myself as I’m not risk averse but I will break down my workings below. I’ll analyse the entire field to see if I spot any of those potential sleepers so they have a mention too but that will be updated in due course, for now this piece is about one horse and one horse only.
There are so many avenues you could wander through in order
to build or damage a case for any runner so I’m going to steer this blog in the
direction that suits me and my style of analysis which is predominantly form
based. That said, I’m not against looking into the negatives, however the likes
of ‘Willie’s never won the Boodles’ isn’t going to hold enough sway in any
argument and if they’re making up a significant percentage of how you assess a
race, you may want to look into backing certain models blind, or pop in to my
DMs and lay this lad.
“No one really knows the French form”
Form study is best served when it’s literal, is comparable
and it’s local. If you want 2m Handicap Hurdle form to analyse, ideally, every
runner will have run every race over the track and trip against each other
whilst all trying and all progressing at the same rate. We know this isn’t the
case, so the fact there’s some form in one country compared to another adds to
the challenge. However, we do have historical data to go by, albeit not for the
case in point. I believe you can gauge how accurate a metric is by looking at
its historical values. Again, ideally, you’d want to have a huge data set, be
able to train on 80% of that then test on the other 20%. Using Machine Learning
you could tweak aspect of the 80% data learning to be weighted and ultimately
predict to a fairly good degree of certainty on the other 20%. You train, you
test, you train again, you test again, and continue. Until you reach parity, or
as close as you’re happy to accept. If you’re interested in learning more about
machine learning I’d suggest looking up BOSTON HOUSE PRICES in google.
So, I admit we’re using a smaller sample than ideal, but is
the case for every other runner the same, pretty much. Yes, some have had more
runs, some have run in UK & Ireland, but the sceptic in all of us would ask
how many of those have tried their best in each of those? You could argue, why
would you hold back in your first few runs in France when the objective is to
sell to the highest bidder and potentially retain their novice status too.
Right let’s get stuck in….
I’ve chosen to look at two previous winners of the race who
had little or no British experience and raced in France. If there had been more
to look at I would have done. I’ve also chosen to look at Willie Mullins
runners as a quick overview to their performances in the race given “Willie
never wins the Boodles” and of those I’ve selected four to analyse. Fortunately
two of those were a French runner who was making his stable debut, the other
two had just one run prior in Ireland.
So quick kick off with Willie Mullins Boodles stats:
· 16 runners since race added along with the 4th day in 2005
· A runner in 10/17 renewals
· 4/16 rated under 130 (2006, 2007, 2010, 2012)
· 6/16 finished inside the top 10
· 2/16 finished inside top 3
· 0/16 won
· 2 made their debut having raced in France (CIEL DE NEIGE 3rd 15/2, KALMANN 13th 14/1)
· 2 ran a RPR higher than their OR (SAINT SAM 2nd 9/2, CIEL DE NEIGE 3rd 15/2)
· 114.74% - Overall chance % across the 16 runners
· VOIX DU REVE fell at the last in 2016 when looking the winner
A quick look through the stats listed there, Willie’s had
runners in the race over the years having been represented in 10 of the 17
races, however the % overall chance (which is calculated by using the SP
divided into 1 then summed) comes out at 114.74% which wouldn’t be too far away
from a typical overround book so his expectation could be he should have had 1
winner. VOIX DU REVE fell at the last under Ruby Walsh (surprise) when in with
a huge chance so I’m not worried that Willie can’t win the race, or should have
had more winners from his chances
Now a quick look at the Favourite in the race stats (it’s 17
because of a joint fav):
· 3/17 favourites have won this race, one of those a Joint Favourite
· 14/17 finished inside the top 10
· 9/17 placed in the race
· 7/17 finished inside top 3
· 5/17 rated under 130 (14th, 15th, 10th, 1st, 3rd)
· 8/17 priced 4/1 or lower producing two winners (the other was 9/2)
· 3/17 sent off 3/1 or shorter (3rd in 2012, 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2008)
· 323% - Overall chance % across the 17 runners
A quick look through these favourite stats basically reads
that most are going to finish inside the top half of the field, more than half
have placed in the race and 7 of the 17 finished inside the first 3. 5 were
rated under 130 and produced a winner and a third. They did also include 2/3
favourites who didn’t make it into the top half. 3 Winning favourites is
running to expectation using the % overall chance, especially when considering
overround and one was beaten a neck (still beaten but a neck away from over
performing against expectation). It’s been a long while since we’ve had a
runner sent off 3/1 or shorter (the expectation for GAELIC) but all three were
beaten, however they all placed. If you move the price band out to 4/1 then
there have been 8 runners (last in 2019 then 2014 before that) producing two
winners – 192% overall chance so over performing marginally, 6 of those 8
placed too. Squeezing the band out to 9/2 there have been 13, producing 3
winners, with an overall chance of 283% so again marginally over performing. 9
of those 13 placed too.
Now into the Form, we’re going to look at DIEGO DU CHARMIL –
the 2016 winner who benefitted from VOIX DU REVE’S fall, but was racing for
Nicholls on debut from France. The other race winner we’ll look at is
SANCTUAIRE – another for Paul Nicholls, ex French but he had raced one on these
shores. Of the Willie previous runners we’ll look at SAINT SAM – runner up in
2021 and ex French but had 3 runs prior for Willie, CIEL DE NEIGE – 3rd
in 2019 and ex French making debut in this race, VOIX DU REVE – Fell in 2016, ex
French had one run for Willie before this, KALMANN – 13th in 2013
but ex French raced here on debut for Willie, and of course, GAELIC WARRIOR
himself.
Now just before we jump in, I want to remind you that most
of your previous looks back at non BHA or IHRB rules races will stem from
French races or Point To Points. Most often we’re lured in by a winning pointer
in the NH sphere but given most novice hurdlers are just that, novices, some of
the recent household names would have come to our shores as Maidens. KLASSICAL
DREAM was 0/5, VAUTOUR was 0/2 as was MIN.
That doesn’t mean they all will be, but where we look at being beaten over here
as a big negative in terms of trends and forecast ability, they get racing
young in France so the potential for improvement over time is extended. This of
course isn’t quite as true with Juveniles because they’re going to finish that
Juvenile season without the time to progress. Now the reason I make that point,
is the likes of your VAUTOUR, MIN & KLASSICAL DREAM were kept for the next
season to unleash their fury. The potential suggestion could be that they might
not have been ready to roll yet. DOUVAN was a little different. He didn’t race
as a 3yo but ran in May as a 4yo when beaten then won the same summer. He’s
different because he didn’t race as a 3yo, but he also came to Willie as a
winner. In theory, who knew what he’d beaten, but I think it’s fair to say that
Willie knew he was ready to roll as we saw from what happened on the
racecourse.
Now the point of me bringing this up; I trust Willie to know
if a French raced 3yo is forward enough to do the themselves justice. Of course
he’s had Juveniles who have been well touted before who might end up in a
Boodles, but most of those that had raced, tried better company and had
limitations exposed. The less touted ones who ran here were likely there for
experience, with little expectation of losing their maiden tag, or little point
in not trying the race if they’d previously won as they’d be in Open company as
a 5yo and things will only get tougher from there.
Anyway, let’s move on to the horses I said I was going to
talk about. The reason for that little interjection was just to paint the
picture that not all French imports are the same, and there can be many reasons
why he might want to run one as a 4yo just as much as why he wouldn’t. Let’s be
clear though; he wants to race GAELIC WARRIOR, and given the new rating method,
he wanted to find out what their options were. Side note to this – George
mentioned on our preview how the IRISH horses who were entered in the UK
earlier in the season were given lighter marks than those who only held entries
for the Festival. It’s clear that when there is a Festival Focus, the
Handicapper has decided they want to make a statement (with a few exceptions)
so this is another smart move to test the water earlier as his British Mark, potentially,
could have been higher had he waited without a previous UK entry.
Looking at the form there’s many ways you can delve in, but
I’m going to quote the winners or the race, or those closest to each horse
while making reference to their own ratings, and performances as Juveniles.
What they achieve at a later date is irrelevant here because we don’t have, or
want, the foresight for this years race.
DIEGO DU CHARMIL – winner 2016 – OR 133 – RPR on the Day
137 – 13/2
This race is the one I’ve touched on earlier where VOIX DU
REVE for Willie probably would have won if not for falling at the final flight,
and even CAMPEADOR for Gordon was in contention when suffering the same fate at
the last. Anyway, it shows that French debutants can win a Boodles, or at a
minimum run a big race.
The form reads as 3rd, 2nd, 2nd
and he progressed with each run, achieving RPR’s of 107,109 then 121. The first
Horse he was beaten by PILLARD (8 lengths behind, given RPR of 116) was rated
129 in the UK for the Fred Winter. He was beaten three times after which is a
negative, but PILLARD had raced 4 times before. The balance in this for me
would suggest PILLARD was entitled to be further forward than DIEGO DU CHARMIL
and should they have met again after I think DIEGO would close the distance gap
at a minimum. Of the three races he had after he raced once more in France then
twice for Jonjo O’Neill, failing to lower his initial mark of 129 in either of
those but twice running to the same RPR of 116. Overall the assessment of his
figure being 107 for being beaten by him by just under 9 lengths seems fair.
He was then beaten by PROVOKATOR who remained in France. He
was given a figure of 120 and was giving DIEGO 9lbs, plus a 2.5 length beating.
This was also his second run like DIEGO, however he’d won prior posting an RPR
of 119. The same season he raced 6 times after posting an average RPR of 116
and a peak of 123 three runs later when second in a Listed race. The 109 RPR
given to DIEGO on the basis of all this would seem OK, but possibly on the high
side. We know since that PROVOKATOR probably preferred the quicker ground as
those first two wins came on GD and GS which is a rarity in France (basically Good To Firm over there), so the
hindsight using this would say the RPR of 109 for DIEGO was justified.
His Third defeat came behind MERCENARIO who never raced
after. He was making his 3rd hurdle appearance having won no races prior but
posted a debut RPR of 111 in a listed race before pulling up in a Handicap next
time out. Big priced winner that day so hard to gauge fully but I think to be
generous, we’ll say there’s no reason why it should be marked down.
He was given an OR of 133 by the British Handicapper. If we
look at his last rating that’s a 12 point difference, if we look at his peak
rating that too is a 12 point increase and if we look from his low rating it’s
a 26 point increase. The increase from his average rating would be 21 points.
To win the race he posted an RPR of 137 which is 4 points higher than the mark
given, but let’s remember he won by a head, and two major threats crashed out
at the last. Ultimately he could have run to 137 and been beaten.
SANCTUAIRE – winner 2010 – OR 127 – RPR on the Day 146 –
4/1F
His form reads 5th, 3rd, 1st
and this time we’ll do it in reverse order. He raced twice in France then once
in Britain for Paul Nicholls before bolting up by 9 lengths in the Fred Winter.
Incidentally, beat GRANDS CRUS on that British debut in receipt of 16 lbs and
only achieved an RPR of 107, in hindsight that was one hell of a performance
given he achieved an OR of 169 the following season! But we’re not taking that
into account because it’s the historical future. But GRANDS CRUS had only had
two hurdle starts prior and achieved an RPR of 122 the time prior (119 against
SANCTUAIRE). Plausible to say they were both underrated that day, but we’re not
talking huge numbers so you’d assume that figure was OK, if not a little light.
Previously he was beaten behind a horse called GOOD LORD who
was second that day. He’s had 8 runs by then, but this was his second over
hurdles. He notched up a head defeat on debut achieving an RPR of 118 which was
in the same debut race as SANCTUAIRE who was 11 behind, then posted a 124 RPR
this day. Then ran second in a French G3 achieving an RPR of 119. SANCTUAIRE
was given an RPR of 121. After France he was beaten on his UK debut by 59
lengths after being rated 130. Was then beaten 55 lengths in a G2 at Cheltenham
on Trials day, both runs in his Juvenile season and well fancied on UK debut.
The winner that day posted an RPR of 125 on what was his second start also. He
then posted an RPR of 116 in a French G1 but was well beaten. The assessment of
this RPR would read as justified but probably a little high.
His first race defeat came behind SURFING who has already
run twice prior however in bumpers only, so this was also his hurdle bow. He
posted an RPR of 114, then went on to win again next time out achieving an RPR
of 117. The second this day was GOOD LORD (given 118 RPR giving 4lbs), who he
was 11 lengths behind and shortened that winning margin after. His RPR of 103
on that basis looked right for an 11.5 length defeat
He was given 127 by the British Handicapper which is a 20
point increase on his last run, a 6 point increase on his highest rating
(arguably his most inflated) and a 24 point increase on his lowest RPR. It was
a 26 point increase on his average RPR’s. He posted a 146 RPR after and bolted
up, so there’s no doubt he was under rated, and really that mistake occurred on
his British debut. That said, on balance of his second RPR maybe being a little
high you’d say he was only missing a few pounds but he had the benefit of that
recent run.
SAINT SAM – second 2021 – OR 139 – RPR on the Day 140 –
9/2F
A recent example for Willie, although this lad had been
tried in graded company for Willie three times before running in this race.
Very different scenario to GAELIC WARRIOR but in terms of looking at ratings it’s
worth going through him.
In France he achieved 98, 110, 121. Then in Ireland he
achieved 134, 123, 137. You’d be fairly sure the British Handicapper would have
used the Irish runs to make his assumptions so I won’t even delve into those,
we’ll just look at the French runs, that’s the handle we’re trying to get here.
98 on debut, when 9th of 9 and beaten 15 lengths
it’s going to be hard to validate the figure, but the winner was also making
his debut, rated 114 for the victory and went on to run once more over hurdles,
before chasing and hitting two RPR’s of 132 in the process albeit falling short
of Graded standard. He posted 104 the time after but had been gelded so we’ll
just accept the 98 but it’s not going to hold as much bearing. He won his next
two starts, firstly beating SHENTRI who was making his second start like SAM
after being well beaten on debut. He posted an RPR of 112 after then was sent
chasing. HEDESH was sent off 6/4 favourite in the race having finished second
in that SAM debut race, a full 11 lengths clear of SAM. He went chasing after,
posting RPR’s off 114 and 124. SAM’s rating of 110 in the context of this race
looks about right, but possibly a little light given he won cosily.
His third race and second win posted an RPR of 121 where he
was giving the second 11 lbs. He was sent off 4th favourite but at
5/1. The second that day was PIRIAC who posted 113 prior and 115 after. So in
receipt of 11lbs, SAM’s RPR of 121 again look OK but could be seen as a little
light. HORSE MAHA was back in third and was making his debut. He then posted a
117 after then followed by a 102 before he was also sent chasing. This brings
the RPR of 121 back to reality and makes it’s a fair rating I believe.
We’re going to ignore the Irish runs even though they would
be what the rating was based on, because he’s had time to improve with Willie
and potentially through racing, but we’re trying to look at this based around
French form.
He was given an OR of 139 by the British Handicapper. If
we look at his last French rating that’s an 18 point difference, if we look at
his peak rating that too is an 18 point increase and if we look from his low
rating it’s a 41 point increase. The increase from his average rating would be
29 points, but if we ignore that debut French run it increased by 24 points.
Finishing second in the race he posted an RPR 1 point higher than his OR. I appreciate this is a moot point given the GB mark was probably based on the
Irish runs, but we want the numbers for comparison later
CIEL DE NEIGE – third 2019 – OR 132 – RPR on the Day 135
– 17/2
This horse is a very good one to use as he’s recent, hadn’t
run for Willie although he’d raced two months further forward (August his last
French run, GAELIC was June). Anyway; he posted two RPRS in France off 114 on
his second start and 85 on his first.
His debut run he was 4th beaten 1.5 lengths by
FANFAN DU SEUIL. That horse ran in the Fred Winter rated 136 after 3 UK runs,
he won this on his debut and then in the Fred winter was some 3 lengths behind
CIEL. This line of form alone, suggests the OR rating given to this horse was a
good guess for starters albeit 3 points lower than his performance on the day,
and the FANFAN reversal was around 4.5 lengths for a 4lb swing. Well done Mr
Handicapper.
He second run was 8.5 lengths behind PIC D’ORHY. Now we know
more about this horse, but I’m only looking at form from the same season. He
was rated 149 by the Handicapper, ran in the Triumph and this was also his
second French run. His RPR was 125, giving 3lbs, and CIEL got a mark of 114.
PIC went on to post RPR’s of 136, 132, 142 & 143 before a 129 in the
Triumph. So he clearly progressed before ‘disappointing’ at Cheltenham, but the
RPR of 125 could be seen as a little lenient but at the time we’ll say it’s OK.
The second was GOLAITH DU BERLAIS who was given 115 after running off levels
with PIC. It was his debut, he then posted 124, 118 and 122 over hurdles after,
before chasing and notching up Graded wins (G3, G2 & G1) with RPRS in the
140’s and finally a 154 in the Spring. Again it’s easier to know after, but the
UK Handiapper would have 3 140’s posted by this horse by the time he gave a
mark so it was there to see.
His third run was an RPR of 85. He was beaten out of sight
(5th of 11 and 26 behind) by ZIZANEUR. Hard to justify or rate a race where
you’re so far behind but the winner was having his 5th run, achieved
only 116 and 102 after (108 for this race) then also ran in the FRED WINTER off
133 sent off at 50/1. Considering only 1lb between then in OR but the distance
between them here I’d say the handicapper took little note of this as literal
form, but gave him the benefit of saying that it’s not a great line of form,
therefore as excited as he ‘could’ have been with the second run, maybe he
toned it down a bit
A mark of 132 was given, which is 18 points higher than his
peak, 47 points higher than the low and 33 points above the average RPR. He ran
to 135 to finish third so it was a pretty good job overall, although I do
wonder how much he’s used FANFAN as the catalyst, looked at the second run and
see potential, then noticed the third was too and to be true but didn’t want to
be too harsh
VOIX DU REVE – fell 2016 – OR 139 – RPR on the Day 143 –
14/1
So VOIX DU REVE arguably would have been a Mullins winner of
the Fred Winter if not for his last flight fall but he wasn’t exactly the most
fancied being sent off at 14/1. He’d had 5 French hurdle starts before a narrow
defeat in a Grade 3 on debut for Willie when sent off 8/15 but also had 5 flat
runs too.
Since there’s no RPRs for his first two French Hurdles we’ll
just use the three after where he achieved 110, 124 and 122. The race of 110 he
actually ran behind DIEGO DU CHARMIL, giving 5lbs and beaten about the same in
lengths. Now we know DIEGO was given a 6lb lower mark for his OR so possibly
this literal one line of form was what pushed VOIX DU REVE out to a 14/1 poke.
He was keen, given an RPR of 1lb higher than DIEGO and my comments on him this
race in terms of validating the rating I wrote: “The 109 RPR given to DIEGO would
seem OK, but possibly on the high side. We know since that PROVOKATOR probably
preferred the quicker ground as those first two wins came on GD and GS which is
a rarity in France, so the hindsight using this would say the RPR of 109 for
DIEGO was justified”. So the same ruling is applied here and the mark seem
OK.
3rd hurdle start but second we’ll look at was his
first win with a commanding defeat of the 6/5 favourite CASPER who was giving
him 2lbs. That horse was given an RPR of 116 but that was his debut and he wasn’t
seen for 5 years after. The third raced once after with no RPR posted so it’s
pretty hard to know where this rating sits. It’s worth re-iterating though that
it was a 10 length win front the front and was an impressive performance
visually.
Final French run was another from the front effort, winning
by 7 giving weight to the entire field. He was given an RPR of 122, the next 4
in behind were all given 109 but all posted nothing after so again, a bit
tricky to know how accurate this figure is, but it was another visually
impressive win.
His Grade 3 run for Willie was a strange one, he looked a
quirky but talented horse and the application of a hood for the Fred Winter was
no surprise given how they’d have to try and settle him, and he had been keen
in France but performed to his best when able to dictate, although we didn’t
know what he was beating. He was given an RPR of 126 in that Grade 3.
So his OR of 139 was 17 points higher than his last French,
15 points above his peak French, 29 above his lowest and 20 above his average.
KALMANN – 13th 2013 – OR 133 – RPR on the Day
115 – 14/1
So KALMANN only had three spins in France over hurdles with
no Flat experience. He pulled up on debut, was beaten a distance on his second
but then won his third posting an RPR of 115. Basically there’s very little to
go by for this horse but we’ll look at him as he was a Willie Mullins runner
making his debut in the Fred Winter. One little side note is he last raced in
NOVEMBER the season prior, whereas GAELIC WARRIOR was JUNE, and even CIEL DE
NEIGE was AUGUST so potentially less time to progress.
KALMANN beat VANILLA CRUSH in his win, who was behind just
over 2 lengths and giving 2lbs. He was also rated 115 for the run. Prior, he’d
made his debut and received 112, he then went chasing and posted an RPR of 122.
He actually won a G2 and was beaten a neck in a Grade 2 before beaten favourite
in a G1 the same spring, but the handicapper wouldn’t have known this yet. He
had the one spin after over fences giving him a mark of 122, so you’d just
accept that KALMANN and his rating of 115 was OK.
His OR of 133 was 18 points higher than his only RPR in
France however in the Fred Winter he only posted an RPR of 115. He was 14/1 the
shortest of Willie’s three runners, all of whom were Ricci owned.
GAELIC WARRIOR – TBC – OR 129 – RPR on the Day TBC – 9/4
(subject to change)
The first run was posting 110 when 7th of 15 in a
Listed race (SANCTUAIRE the only other horse in this analysis who started off
in a Listed race, 5th of 19 beaten 11.5 with RPR of 103) – “His
first race defeat came behind SURFING who has already run twice prior however
in bumpers only, so this was also his hurdle bow. He posted an RPR of 114, then
went on to win again next time out achieving an RPR of 117. The second this day
was GOOD LORD (given 118 RPR giving 4lbs), who he was 11 lengths behind and
shortened that winning margin after. His RPR of 103 on that basis looked right
for an 11.5 length defeat”.
But I digress; the winner PARADISO was given an RPR of 127
for this, so literally 17 lengths behind and 17 point lower rating seems
logical to begin with, and it was also his first start. He’s run three times
since, winning another Listed race and a Grade 3, before beaten odds on the last
day in another G3. He’s posted RPR’s of 136, 139 and 128. You’d say the 127 for
a debut effort was at least justified and he’s been favourite on every start so
they clearly think/know he has ability.
Second run he was given an RPR of 135 when beaten 1l and in
third behind IMPRENABLE & SANS BRUIT respectively. The winner was also
making his second start. He was beaten by PORTICELLO on his debut who we know
is since a G1 winner and only narrowly beaten in a G2 behind KNIGHT SALUTE. He
won his next start, a Listed event earning and RPR of 127, then beaten half a
length in a G2 after, posting 134 and finally in November when 4th
of 10, beaten 10 lengths in a Grade 1 posting another 134.
SANS BRUIT was a neck second, he was making his second start
but stable debut, he won a hurdle after posting an RPR of 140 before landing a
G3 after by 12l, RPR of 133, then beaten fav in a G2 posting an RPR of 134. The
two in front have more than backed up their rating on this day of 134 so giving
one 2lbs and running the other levels, you’d say his 135 rating was maybe 1 or
2 points high, but pretty accurate.
His third run was again behind SANS BRUIT, this time on 4lb
better terms and a further 6 lengths behind him, so a drop seems realistic
knowing that we’ve assessed his form previous. 129 he was given this day, so
we’re still happy with that. Now GOLDEN SON split the pair in this race and was
then 2l second after, before winning a Handicap hurdle with an RPR of 125 and
then landing a G2 beating IMPRENABLE who just beat GAELIC on that second start.
He was then a beaten favourite in a G1 posting an RPR of 135. The horse who
beat him next time out and in the Grade 1 was KYROV, who was behind both GOLDEN
SON and GAELIC in this third run, back in forth. He was making his debut, so
progression from him would be accelerated but even taking that into account, he
won next time out posting 126, then again posting 132 before a demolition job
in that G1 posting an RPR of 148. So we can say that KYROV probably has progressed
passed both GOLDEN SON and GAELIC WARRIOR with that natural progression given
it was his debut here, but it validates that GAELIC and GOLDEN SON are fairly
closely matched so being 2 lengths behind giving 2lbs means his RPR of 129
looks legitimate (KYROV back in 4th was given 134 so the mark
includes the fact it’s his debut) and the winner was giving 6lbs to GAELIC and
a 6lb beating achieving an RPR of 140. I’d say this mark is more than valid,
and in fact could be considered a little light.
His OR of 129 is 6 points LOWER than his peak, it’s 3 points
higher than his last, 19 points higher than his lowest and 4 points higher than
his average RPR.
So we have 3 runs to go by, we have 3 ratings so this should
be OK to assess having looked through a number of other ex French runners and
starting to understand whether the marks seem OK in the main (which I’d say
they do).
Now his three RPRs are 110, 135 and 129 which means he’s
posted the highest RPR of any, but he’s posted TWO RPRs higher than any other runner
we’ve assessed. In fact his average of 124.6 (we can round this) is higher than
any single RPR posted in France by all runners assessed (124 for VOIX DU REVE
was the best, followed again by VOIX DU REVE on 122, his average was 118.6 and
his OR was 139).
Let’s crunch the numbers I’ve waffled about for the last 9
pages and show you where his mark could or probably should sit. I’ll make a
wide range and then we can narrow it down but you’re going to see just how
lightly this horse has been let in.
So initially just taking the 3 RPR’s if available from
France (SANCTUAIRE only had two runs in France so his 3rd is taken
from British debut, which I commented may have been light).
The table below shows a heat map on the differences just to
visually show where the numbers sit. Most notably before we remove any outliers
or exceptions is that GAELIC WARRIOR is already fairly positive (green) but so
too (albeit less so) are SANCTUAIRE and DIEGO DU CHARMIL who both won. VOIX DU
REVE who fell in that DIEGO race is not far behind him but on the other end of
the spectrum CIEL DE NEIGE and SAINT SAM have obvious negatives (red) so we may
want to look into these.
For now though, let’s just take the difference from their
PEAK ratings (which have all been talked about above, with some degree of
confidence in them
Now from the previous table, you can still see the colouring
to show you that 18 above the peak is a fair enough pointer as CIEL DU NEIGE
and SAINT SAM have shown with their places. As for KALMANN, well it shows that
chucking 18 onto the peak could be the measure used when uncertain, but he was
a special case as only the one run to go by. I do concede here though that CIEL
DE NEIGE probably only had the one genuine number to use as his 3rd
run of 85 appears as an outlier. That said, we talked about his debut run in
which he received no RPR but the mark given to the winner of that (who had race
between) resulted in a 4l form swing for a 4lb OR difference so we can say that
it wasn’t the wrong mark to be given).
The long and short of this is me saying, that if you chuck
18 points onto the peak French RPR then you’re probably giving the horse a fair
mark, without making it a gimme, although the more substance you have from
other runs to back up the validity of that peak rating the better.
Looking at the table below we’ve just discussed and
explained why the trio in RED are not exactly BAD, but in the scale here they
stand out. We can hopefully agree that, with enough depth behind them, 18
points higher than the peak French rating will not see you win, but it will put
you close
Before we slide onto the greens, lets look at DIEGO &
VOIX DU REVE, who raced against each other, and on another day the result could
have been different. The main thing to realise here, is that adding 12-15
points to a PEAK rating which has depth behind it, will give you horse a
winning chance.
Now lets look at SANCUTAIRE, who bolted up by 9 lengths
after being given an OR just 6 points higher than his peak. This mistake was
probably in that UK debut and his third run, because had they trusted the PEAK
figure, he would have been 12 lbs higher and a close place. Is they’d dropped
to the 12-15 point range, a 6-9 point increase, his winning margin of 9 lengths
would have been bridged but he still would have been there with a winning
chance. You can skip back to the summary of SANCTUAIRE where I mention that the
3rd run was probably under rated by both the winner and the second.
Now let’s look at the elephant in the room, or the standout
in this table; GAELIC WARRIOR. There’s more substance to his three races than
for most in the sample, his connections have stated that they would have been
happy with 139 let alone 129 which would still only be 4 points above his peak.
However, he’s been let in here off 6 points lower value than his peak, it’s the
same as his second best if we wanted to cry that his peak isn’t justified
(although in my writing above it clearly is). Even being as harsh as we can,
and using his lowest French RPR, he’s in here 19 points different. Now I’ve
said that 18 means you’ll run a big race, 12-15 you’ve got a winning chance and
anything under you’d ought to be winning. But lets even use that lowest rating
to say he’s 19 points different, that was his debut, he will have progressed so
at WORST, he runs a big race and is close. At best, well not even at best, he
romps home. And this is why he’s not a scenario where you could argue “He’ll
either pull up or bolt up”, he won’t. He’ll WIN, or he’ll just be beaten
barring a serious incident.
So while it’s easy to tip up a favourite, I just wanted to
share this with whoever is interested. Because this horse is an even money poke
to my eyes, if it wasn’t Cheltenham he’d be that sort of price. Now if you
remember back at the beginning I made reference to TOUT EST PERMIS and the THE
JAM MAN, in that the former looked a good thing, but the latter was a justified
danger, then you’ll allow me to show you one last table.
"If the way they handicap French Form has changed, who
else does it affect?"
Well as much as I’d like to leave it there and tell you
GAELIC WARRIOR is an absolute certainty, I like to be complete. So the four
horses below are listed with their OR compared to their Peak RPR. Now I will
say that I’ve not delved into all the form for these runners but TANGANYIKA
sticks out not only because he too is a negative difference, but he ran behind
GAELIC WARRIOR in France on his second start but GAELIC’s third. Now this was
also the race both horses achieved their peak RPR’s, and I touched on how it’s
feasible the handicapper used FANFAN DU SEUIL for CEIL DE NEIGE’s mark.
The race comments are shown below, but in short, GAELIC
WARRIOR was 2 lbs better off, finishing 12 lengths ahead, so using the point
per length argument we’ve used to now, he was 10 points better but TANGANYIKA
was rated just 6 points inferior. Now this was GAELIC’S third run, and
TANGANYIKA’S second so you can say they been expecting more progression which
we discussed a bit earlier with KYROV who was in 4th.
TANGANYIKA then ran behind KYROV the next day and was beaten
8.5 lengths. Achieving an RPR of 115. Now I’d say this is more accurate, given
that GOLDEN SON was in second and only for an RPR of 117, but even so, his OR
in this race is just 6 points higher than that RPR.
TANGANYIKA has run since, when 26l behind PORTICELLO on
heavy at Haydock, but he was keen, it was his stable debut and Venetia has
talked about a cold in the yard. So it’s feasible he could be well treated too,
in fact I’d say he’s THE JAM MAN of this race and he’s a 66/1 priced danger sat
on 27 needed 5 to come out to get into the race. It won’t cost much to have a
saver on him so that’s what I’ve done but let’s not confuse this. One has been
sent to Willie Mullins and bought by Rich Ricci, the other has been sent to
Venetia (no disrespect) by an owner who has two other horses, both very low
level.
No comments:
Post a Comment