ONES TO WATCH - 22nd 23rd FEBRUARY 2020

SATURDAY

Kempton

12:40 – DOWNTOWN GETAWAY

Not a race I’ve looked at in great depth but this lad was pulled up when sent off as 15/8 favourite off this mark at Newbury. He’s clearly had an issue but comes here fresh from a wind op and potentially could better than these. That said, he would rate as a risky betting proposition and I think he’ll be well found in the market

13:15 – PENDIL NOVICES’ CHASE

A tidy renewal here with Paul Nichols appearing to hold a very strong hand. SOUTHFIELD STONE won the Dovecote on this card last year but MASTER TOMMYTUCKER might just be the class horse if he can ensure a clear round and that is not a given. COMMANCHE RED & WHO DARES WINS are both capable of landing this which ensures that any wide margin winner here will be above average

13:50 – ADONIS JUVENILE HURDLE

SOLO jumps of the final declaration list as the typical ex French Nichols Juvenile but you’d be hard pressed to agree with his opening British mark of 146. FUJIMOTO FLYER sports a first time hood which I’m not keen on for Juveniles and has been well supported for the Triumph proper at bid prices. The pair should have the race between them

14:25 – KINGWELL HURDLE

The re-arranged Kingwell Hurdle means race goers are being spoilt at Kempton and looks like a typical Grade 2 in terms of class. ELGIN will be very interesting after a significant layoff while both CH’TIBELLO and SONG FOR SOMEONE have chances in this grade, especially the latter who is just a 5yo but has some nice handicap form coming into this

15:02 – DOVECOTE HURDLE

It’s a bit late in the day for genuine Cheltenham contenders to be appearing and this race wouldn’t looks the strongest of renewals but it’s nice chance to see the likes of BUZZ, KID COMMANDO, HIGHWAY ONE O TWO and WEST CORK in action as they’ve looked quite nice this season. It is, however, BENSON that would be the one I’d be keen to side with at the prices considering he was genuinely in with a chance I the Contenders Hurdle when unseating at Sandown. This should be much easier but he might just need more rain to be seen to best effect

Fairyhouse

14:17 – JUVENILE HURDLE

This Grade 3 might offer some pointers towards the Triumph, much like the Adonis, but there are a handful in here without Cheltenham entries BATTLE OF WILLS does have one, and Gordon has hinted he’ll be his Triumph horse so I’ll be keen to see how he fares but Willie Mullins has 4 in here so my eyes will be split across those for future reference

16:02 – BOBBYJO CHASE

This isn’t far off a veterans race with VOIX DU REVE the only runner aged in single figures but it does look a nice match up for BELLSHILL & ALPHA DES OBEAUX. Not sure how much we’ll learn from these older horses, but it should be an exciting race all the same

17:12 – FERNY HOLLOW

This horse has twice been second and looked quite green so you’d really want to see him finally go and get on with it. Willie Mullins said to see how this goes as he might still make the Champion Bumper but he’d want to winning this if he were to go there with a genuine chance. FRONTAL ASSAULT ran well enough in his bumper and should step forward from that and Gigginstown also run BAPTISM OF FIRE who was well fancied at Christmas but underwhelmed. He might not be straight forward but they’re always worth a watch next time out

SUNDAY

Fontwell

15:20 – NATIONAL SPIRIT HURDLE

QUEL DESTIN, THOMAS DARBY, WILLIAMS HENRY & MONSIEUR LECOQ makes up 4 of the 5 runners and on adjusted figures they have just 4lbs separating them so on paper we have a thrilling race in prospect. THOMAS DARBY running at this trip would suggest they want to bypass Cheltenham and might be thinking about the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f for him but whatever they decide to do with him this will be a clear indictor to his well being. You’d like to think he’d land this but I’m just not yet convinced after that one handicap hurdle win so this would be a watching brief

Naas

14:10 – CHASE

HARDLINE is one of my guilty pleasures and like ORNUA & CADMIUM he could be in here to get his mark lowered although I think he has a genuine chance at this level. ANY SECOND NOW & ARTICULUM comes into play at these weights too so another race to sit back and watch

15:10 – NOVICE HURDLE

This Grade 2 looks a decent standard, and probably hints to those who might miss The Festival. ANDY DUFRESNE has been confirmed already to be sidestepping it and has to give weight away all round here. BEACON EDGE looks an above average runner, as does the other Gigginstown runner in GRANGECLARE NATIVE and we haven’t even mentioned ENVOI ALLEN’S half brother FIGHTER ALLEN yet. MT LEINSTER & TIGER TAP TAP are also in the race so it’s another sit back and watch but it should read quite well for form lines going into the Spring

17:10 -  BUMPER

FAROUK D’ALENE has been classed by Gordon Elliott as his Champion Bumper contedender but this looks a steady enough bumper too. FIRE ATTACK, STATTLER & VINNIE IS BUSY all look very nice prospects in their own right so if anything wins this well then I think they’re very smart

CAN THE TIGER BE TAMED?

Quite often it’s clear how to view the result of a race, especially in the Graded sphere. There are of course a huge number of handicaps or lower level Maidens and Novice races where we might not be seeing horses run as well as they might end up. In most cases you can allow for usual progression, whether that be with age, experience or simply more racing. Tiger Rolls effort in the Boyne Hurdle this year seems to have been accepted by the mass as a very pleasing outing, and in the main people seem to be genuinely impressed by the effort. Here I want to challenge that as my expectations of a seasonal reappearance were not quite met although I want to make this crystal clear from the start, in no way did I expect him to win that race.

The Race Facts

So an initial reaction is just that, it’s the first gut feeling surrounding a performance. I’ll come onto this later after we cover the facts to bring in some much-needed context.

Distance – 2m 5f

Runners – 8

Penalties Carried – Tiger Roll & Magic Of Light

Position in the Market – 4^th

Finishing Position – 5^th

Going – Heavy

Given the fact Tiger Roll landed this race last year there was always likely to be some bias towards his chance this time round which could easily be conceived as him being under-priced. He was a 25/1 poke last term yet faced his rivals on 5lbs worse times here, yet he was a third of the price for the most part.

On official hurdle ratings Tiger comes out on top at 156 with only PENHILL & KILFENORA coming out better on adjusted ratings (153+5 and 152+6 respectively).  BACHASSON, CRACKING SMART & KILLULTAGH VIC all has under half a stone to find. Now taken into consideration that Tiger was coming here for a prep run, and off the back of a niggle, for his first run of the season it’s fair to say he was likely to have more finish in front of him that behind which is exactly how it played out. 4 in front, and 3 behind and he was only a nk away from reversing those numbers.

The ground was officially heavy, which would in theory make this more of a test of stamina and the time reflected this in abundance with this year’s race coming some 33 seconds slower. This rings consistent enough with the bumper which was 20 seconds slower (over 2m), the Mares Handicap hurdle which was also 33 seconds off (over 2m 4f) and the Ten Up Novices’ Chase being 35 seconds slower (over 3m)

Really if you’re going to take a run on face value then he has done what was expected of him. Especially as he came into this race last year off the back of a decent run at The November Meeting at Cheltenham whereas he was talked about as possibly not even making this engagement not so long ago

My Pre-Race Thoughts

Having the luxury of being able to view a race once it’s finished is always going to be open to interpretation, but before I start to delve into that I think it’s worth mentioning my realistic expectations.

He’s a much better horse over further, but let’s not forget Tiger Roll is an enigma and 6 of his 12 wins have come at 2m5f or shorter. Of course, that means the other 6 have come over further and in fact they range from 3m to 4m 2 1/2f. Take out the 3m win and his 5 others came at 3m 6f+. The point of this, is that he’s just a very good horse and he can be competitive at a range of trips, although at this stage of his career 2m 5f would be bending cusp of the minimum trip he requires

This race was run on Heavy ground, and as I touched on with the times it will have easily been a more testing effort than encountered last year, which for me, can only be a positive for Tiger. Afterall, he won his first National on Heavy ground.

So this season he suffered a setback, and at one point it was unlikely that he’d even make this race but if you look at his record following a break of 12 weeks or more it reads – 21212141 so he’s far from poor fresh. Clearly, he will improve a good amount from this debut outing, but given The Festival is just over 3 weeks away (and he’ll have a couple of days off) I was expecting him to be forward enough.

I pitched this with an expectation that Tiger would be beaten but I’d expect somewhere around the 5-length mark. Now I’m a tough one to please at times so if he’d have finished 5ls off I would be very happy and anything up to double the distance would have been reasonable. Ultimately, he’s trebled the initial expectation which was simply underwhelming.

My Post-Race Thoughts

Watching them turn for home it was no surprise to see the Tiger travelling in strongly, but if anything, it was a bit a of a relief to confirm that he’s still loving the game. As they approach 2 out there’s not a great deal between the field but still Tiger is travelling very well. It’s at this point I’m giving myself a pat of the back thinking I’m not far off this expectation being met.

Now I appreciate he was entitled to be more forward last season given he’d had a run, but in the understanding that we’re looking at his form coming into The Festival like last season, he wasn’t ridden when winning this last year, he didn’t pull away from the back of the last, but he didn’t lose any ground. This time round he did. I’m not saying he should have won this race, as explained before, but in terms of where he is at now compared to 12 months prior, he has a long way to go.

That’s where this whole hysteria after the race about how brilliant his comeback performance was has really surprised me. I did expect in the main people to be positive about it, but I’ve struggled to find more than a handful of people who were even slightly underwhelmed. Often when I dig a little deeper and the swing is so far in favour of the opposite of my opinion, I might be able to draw myself back, much like with PAISLEY’S performance after the Cleeve. But the more I look at it the more I’m confident that he will be going into The Festival under baked.

The race winner CRACKING SMART was 5lbs better off with Tiger this time round for his 6 and a quarter length defeat the year prior so it wasn’t quite as much of a surprise as the prices might suggest that he was able to better that rival here. But, in reversing that form he provided a 22.75L pull. BACHASSON also faced off in both renewals and in fact was sent off 5/4 favourite for this 12 months ago. He was 8 and ¾ lengths behind then and managed to switch that placing to the tune of 5 and ¼ lengths, a 14L swing. This was his first run since The Boyne Hurdle so he’d in fact had a longer absence to overcome.

He’s posted some varying RPR’s over the years, but this was marked as 144 which is his lowest since December 2017 when trying the Cross Country discipline for the first time. Before that it’s his lowest since 2016.

I touched on his reappearance record after a 12 week + break which is now updated to - 212121415 but if we read into his RPR for those we start to find a bit more agreement with my view

136 (Juvenile 2014)

150 (Won Masterson 2014)

59 (Dundalk AW Maiden)

157 (Won 4 Miler 2017)

151 (Second Listed Chase 2017)

155 (Won Cross Country 2018)

158 (4^th in Handicap Cross Country 2018)

160 (Won Boyne Hurdle 2019)

144 (5^th in Boyne Hurdle)

If we ignore his AW run where the rating is for the flat, you’d have to go back to his first run for the yard, when second in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile, to find a lower RPR rating.

Final Thoughts

When I saw him run last season in that Handicap in November, I was blown away by the weight carrying performance and the further they went the better he looked. I didn’t expect him to win The Boyne hurdle last year so the fact that he did just emphasised that last season was probably the best we’ve ever seen of Tiger which of course is going to be almost impossible to reach again. I love Tiger Roll, everyone loves Tiger Roll, but the reason for this post is just to hopefully provide some logic to my feeling. I know connections are bullish after, but let’s not forget Gordon was very bullish about his 1/4 bumper charge on the same card who proved that actions speak louder than words.

Tiger is a good way clear of his likely rivals in the Cross Country and I’d suggest that Gordon knows that but based on that run and the fact there is 3 weeks to go for Cheltenham he’s going to be a good way back from where he was 12 months ago. That may well still be good enough to land the race, but it’s clear to me they are leaving more improvement to come for this Third National bid and I’m not sure everyone is taking that into consideration with The Festival fast approaching.