Quite often it’s clear how to view the result of a race, especially
in the Graded sphere. There are of course a huge number of handicaps or lower
level Maidens and Novice races where we might not be seeing horses run as well
as they might end up. In most cases you can allow for usual progression,
whether that be with age, experience or simply more racing. Tiger Rolls effort
in the Boyne Hurdle this year seems to have been accepted by the mass as a very
pleasing outing, and in the main people seem to be genuinely impressed by the
effort. Here I want to challenge that as my expectations of a seasonal
reappearance were not quite met although I want to make this crystal clear from
the start, in no way did I expect him to win that race.
The Race Facts
So an initial reaction is just that, it’s the first gut
feeling surrounding a performance. I’ll come onto this later after we cover the
facts to bring in some much-needed context.
Distance – 2m 5f
Runners – 8
Penalties Carried – Tiger Roll & Magic Of Light
Position in the Market – 4th
Finishing Position – 5th
Going – Heavy
Given the fact Tiger Roll landed this race last year there
was always likely to be some bias towards his chance this time round which
could easily be conceived as him being under-priced. He was a 25/1 poke last
term yet faced his rivals on 5lbs worse times here, yet he was a third of the
price for the most part.
On official hurdle ratings Tiger comes out on top at 156
with only PENHILL & KILFENORA coming out better on adjusted ratings (153+5
and 152+6 respectively). BACHASSON, CRACKING
SMART & KILLULTAGH VIC all has under half a stone to find. Now taken into
consideration that Tiger was coming here for a prep run, and off the back of a
niggle, for his first run of the season it’s fair to say he was likely to have
more finish in front of him that behind which is exactly how it played out. 4
in front, and 3 behind and he was only a nk away from reversing those numbers.
The ground was officially heavy, which would in theory make
this more of a test of stamina and the time reflected this in abundance with
this year’s race coming some 33 seconds slower. This rings consistent enough with
the bumper which was 20 seconds slower (over 2m), the Mares Handicap hurdle
which was also 33 seconds off (over 2m 4f) and the Ten Up Novices’ Chase being
35 seconds slower (over 3m)
Really if you’re going to take a run on face value then he
has done what was expected of him. Especially as he came into this race last
year off the back of a decent run at The November Meeting at Cheltenham whereas
he was talked about as possibly not even making this engagement not so long ago
My Pre-Race Thoughts
Having the luxury of being able to view a race once it’s
finished is always going to be open to interpretation, but before I start to
delve into that I think it’s worth mentioning my realistic expectations.
He’s a much better horse over further, but let’s not forget
Tiger Roll is an enigma and 6 of his 12 wins have come at 2m5f or shorter. Of
course, that means the other 6 have come over further and in fact they range
from 3m to 4m 2 1/2f. Take out the 3m win and his 5 others came at 3m 6f+. The
point of this, is that he’s just a very good horse and he can be competitive at
a range of trips, although at this stage of his career 2m 5f would be bending
cusp of the minimum trip he requires
This race was run on Heavy ground, and as I touched on with
the times it will have easily been a more testing effort than encountered last
year, which for me, can only be a positive for Tiger. Afterall, he won his
first National on Heavy ground.
So this season he suffered a setback, and at one point it was
unlikely that he’d even make this race but if you look at his record following a
break of 12 weeks or more it reads – 21212141 so he’s far from poor fresh. Clearly,
he will improve a good amount from this debut outing, but given The Festival is
just over 3 weeks away (and he’ll have a couple of days off) I was expecting
him to be forward enough.
I pitched this with an expectation that Tiger would be
beaten but I’d expect somewhere around the 5-length mark. Now I’m a tough one
to please at times so if he’d have finished 5ls off I would be very happy and
anything up to double the distance would have been reasonable. Ultimately, he’s
trebled the initial expectation which was simply underwhelming.
My Post-Race Thoughts
Watching them turn for home it was no surprise to see the Tiger
travelling in strongly, but if anything, it was a bit a of a relief to confirm
that he’s still loving the game. As they approach 2 out there’s not a great
deal between the field but still Tiger is travelling very well. It’s at this
point I’m giving myself a pat of the back thinking I’m not far off this
expectation being met.
Now I appreciate he was entitled to be more forward last
season given he’d had a run, but in the understanding that we’re looking at his
form coming into The Festival like last season, he wasn’t ridden when winning
this last year, he didn’t pull away from the back of the last, but he didn’t
lose any ground. This time round he did. I’m not saying he should have won this
race, as explained before, but in terms of where he is at now compared to 12
months prior, he has a long way to go.
That’s where this whole hysteria after the race about how
brilliant his comeback performance was has really surprised me. I did expect in
the main people to be positive about it, but I’ve struggled to find more than a
handful of people who were even slightly underwhelmed. Often when I dig a
little deeper and the swing is so far in favour of the opposite of my opinion,
I might be able to draw myself back, much like with PAISLEY’S performance after
the Cleeve. But the more I look at it the more I’m confident that he will be
going into The Festival under baked.
The race winner CRACKING SMART was 5lbs better off with Tiger
this time round for his 6 and a quarter length defeat the year prior so it wasn’t
quite as much of a surprise as the prices might suggest that he was able to
better that rival here. But, in reversing that form he provided a 22.75L pull. BACHASSON
also faced off in both renewals and in fact was sent off 5/4 favourite for this
12 months ago. He was 8 and ¾ lengths behind then and managed to switch that
placing to the tune of 5 and ¼ lengths, a 14L swing. This was his first run
since The Boyne Hurdle so he’d in fact had a longer absence to overcome.
He’s posted some varying RPR’s over the years, but this was
marked as 144 which is his lowest since December 2017 when trying the Cross
Country discipline for the first time. Before that it’s his lowest since 2016.
I touched on his reappearance record after a 12 week + break
which is now updated to - 212121415 but if we read into his RPR for those we
start to find a bit more agreement with my view
136 (Juvenile
2014)
150 (Won
Masterson 2014)
59 (Dundalk
AW Maiden)
157 (Won 4
Miler 2017)
151 (Second
Listed Chase 2017)
155 (Won
Cross Country 2018)
158 (4th
in Handicap Cross Country 2018)
160 (Won Boyne
Hurdle 2019)
144 (5th
in Boyne Hurdle)
If we ignore his AW run where the rating is for the flat,
you’d have to go back to his first run for the yard, when second in the Grade 1
Spring Juvenile, to find a lower RPR rating.
Final Thoughts
When I saw him run last season in that Handicap in November,
I was blown away by the weight carrying performance and the further they went
the better he looked. I didn’t expect him to win The Boyne hurdle last year so
the fact that he did just emphasised that last season was probably the best we’ve
ever seen of Tiger which of course is going to be almost impossible to reach
again. I love Tiger Roll, everyone loves Tiger Roll, but the reason for this
post is just to hopefully provide some logic to my feeling. I know connections
are bullish after, but let’s not forget Gordon was very bullish about his 1/4 bumper
charge on the same card who proved that actions speak louder than words.
Tiger is a good way clear of his likely rivals in the Cross
Country and I’d suggest that Gordon knows that but based on that run and the
fact there is 3 weeks to go for Cheltenham he’s going to be a good way back
from where he was 12 months ago. That may well still be good enough to land the
race, but it’s clear to me they are leaving more improvement to come for this Third
National bid and I’m not sure everyone is taking that into consideration with The
Festival fast approaching.
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