ITCHY FEET was impressive over fences at Leicester and
Sandown but the real eye-catching thing was how he pecked a bit two out then
got himself straight back on the bridle. We know he likes it here, we know he
handles give underfoot so he looks to be the most likely winner and the line
through MIDNIGHT SHADOW (albeit a loose one) is interesting should now CHAMP
has won the RSA. MIDNIGHT SHADOW himself is capable of running a big race
although this looks very deep.
I wasn’t even sure FAUGHEEN would travel over but he
deserves a chance and my word would it be some spectacle to see him leading up
the hill one more time. 3 from 3 over fences and no doubt the best horse of any
of these on his day, has the beating of SAMCRO so regardless of EASY GAME’S run
yesterday over a longer trip, surely he has to be considered
MISTER FISHER struck me last term that there might be an
issue with him and the Spring. Won his Kempton bumper then was well beaten at
Aintree. Second first first over hurdles up to January then 8th in
Supreme and well beaten fav at Haydock in May. This season he’s gone second
first first again including winning round here, but the level of that win
(Beating GOODBOY BOBBY getting 5lbs) isn’t Festival winning standard but a
chance he was one of a few last year for Seven Barrows who didn’t handle the Flu
Vaccine like EPATANTE
How can you possibly work out how good or how bad SAMCRO is?
I’m happy to keep it short, he’s clearly capable of mixing it in this company,
he’s a dual Grade 1 winner, but so often he’s underwhelmed and he sounds like
he’s hard to diagnose at home so if they can’t really strike the light with
him, it’d be hard for me to provide a noteworthy case. That said, I reckon a
few antepost slips have snuck through on him and he’s another where I suspect
the scenes would be immense if he landed this
Willie Mullins has done well in this race and is throwing
plenty of darts. I’ve always liked TORNADO FLYER and there is no way we’ve seen
his limit so I’d give him an outside chance. BAPUAME will be better at this
trip and has run well here in the past while MELON has £300k in earnings but
only around 10% that is from winnings. Does like it round here but dangerously
similar to a MIN where he runs well but just doesn’t seem to win here. I like
him though, don’t think this is his trip (looked to be well covered when
falling 3 out at Aintree) but Willie knows better than me and festival form is
a huge interest to me
Not even sure it’s the ground with RESERVE TANK anymore I
just wonder if he’s possibly not quite the same horse in the early part of the
season. Will be slow enough ground, but one thing in his defence was he
improved for racing last term so this might put him spot on for Aintree &
Punchestown. Would have liked to see another run before this race to expect him
to be competitive
PERTEMPS
The plot jobs of all plot jobs usually wins this but it’s
always a hard puzzle to solve and many have already been backed at prices.
RELEGATE is one (Feel free to quote me after she wins) I don’t think jumps well
enough and she maybe looks flattered by passing tired horses late on. I could
be wrong and she’ll be staying home but she’s not for me. SKANDIBURG might just
be high enough in the weights now while THE STORYTELLER was well touted for
this last year and must have a chance off his mark. KILBRICKEN STORM is likely
to run well without winning but at prices I still give chances to TOUT EST
PERMIS & ROCKET LAD. The former has been nibble slightly and is more than capable
of this mark while the latter has been easy to back and is available at 66/1 at
the time of writing. I could be wrong and he’s just not a very well horse but
his last couple of runs have looked suspicious to me but on that penultimate
start he did get some course experience. Worth a poke at that price for sure
RYANAIR
A PLUS TARD – Probably for the best he swerved the Dublin
Racing Festival as looked to enjoy the break when bolting up at the meeting
last year. Does need to step forward to my eye to really justify his 165 mark
(won a handicap and beat ORDINARY WORLD 10l – I know CHACUN was second). Only 6
so could easily have a bright future and more festival wins, but I’m just not
certain he justifies being favourite off the back of beating CHACUN, who we need
to see tested at the highest level. Granted there is a literal line between him
and MIN, but they raced different versions of the same horse and this is over a
different trip
MIN – My guilty pleasure. To be honest I’ll be glad when he
retires so I can stop being drawn in! Trip is OK for him (Melling Chase win
dampened by POLITOLOGUE bleeding), track is fine for him, tactically he’s not
as versatile as some, but hopefully off a positive ride, and not just forced by
being keen, they won’t be able to live with him and he’s the one I think they
all have to beat. I’m certainly blinkered when looking at this horse so take a
few pounds off my opinion and you’re probably closer to the truth. Side point here; he might be better suited to this new course
FRODON – Proved himself last season and he’s been about for
a while now. If you’re prepared to ignore his two runs this season (first one
basically a bumper and second one they tried to hold onto him and wasted
energy) then I think he comes here priced about right. Wouldn’t be a shock
winner, but certainly vulnerable to a more proven Graded horse or an improver
RIDERS ONTHE STORM – I had him pinned a just a good
handicapper and in a few strides I went from thinking he’s actually a Graded
horse to thinking, nah I’ve got him right in that Ascot Chase. Not ideal prep
for this having such a hard race there and started his curve at Aintree so the
Melling chase might be of more interest (although talk of ALTIOR going there!)
STAYERS
PAISLEY PARK wins this. Said to be keeping him going this
season for Punchestown but break is long enough he will be fully wound up here.
The ONLY niggle with him is he can be untidy at the last (usually when jumping
on his own) and with the short run after that flight you’d prefer to see him
pop those). SUMMERVILLE BOY is well found in the market behind him now and deservedly
so after that Cleeve Hurdle run, but this is a bigger and more competitive field
so that should only improve PAISLEY’S performance. EMITOM has to prove he likes
it here but he’ll be fully cooked. I know Warren Greatorex said he probably was
too easy on him before the Relkeel but even so I don’t think he showed enough in
that race to confirm he could be winning this.
PENHILL would be my lively outsider here for a few reasons.
Won this race in 2018, won the Albert Bartlett in 2017 and decent effort in the
Boyne hurdle in fairness (all under Paul Townend). The MAIN reason I’m more
leaning towards him as a danger is because he’s been hard to train, and the
fact they’ve been able to get him racing suggests they’ve brough him on
slowing. Willie Mullins said after BENIE DES DIEUX’s win how pleased he was
with PENHILL’s performance and he was 21L back in second running to a RPR of
141 (CRIMSON EMBERS regained in the 80’s – 82+86)
STABLE PLATE
The form line is there for all to see with SIMPLY THE BETTS
but I’d want to play that down slightly. IMPERIAL AURA was weak that day, the
yard were out of form so his run could easily be upgraded. SIMPLY THE BETTS was
flying and arguably was 100% that day so he wouldn’t have as much in hand I’d
suspect. No doubt he’ll go close but at his price and it being double figure prices
bar I think it’s worth looking to take him on. DEYRANN DE CARJAC will be
popular but the ground worries me for him although I think he can manage this
mark. OLDGRANGEWOOD has notched up a double so comes here in flying form while
BEN DUNDEE has fair course form and looks off an attractive mark.
At bigger prices I wouldn’t want to lay VISION DES FLOS
despit4 him never showing up at this track and LIVELOVELAUGH also needs to
prove himself here, but I think this is about his trip and he’s off a nice
weight
MARES NOVICES’ HURDLE
I really do like MINELLA MELODY, her form is rock solid even
going back to her bumpers. The ground will help her as she will likely appreciate
further but despite having to give weight to some of this field she’s the right
favourite. COLREEVY improves with her racing so it’s no surprise to see her
supported especially with the Mullins factor but I’d hope MELODY can confirm
recent placings, even on a 1lb worse pairing. CONCERTISTA wasn’t beaten far at
all in this race last year, so forgiving her maiden hurdle defeat when odds on
her form in behind others the last twice reads OK (BLACK TEARS second yesterday
off 144 in the Coral Cup)
FLORESSA is the best of the British but I’m not sure she’s
the winner, the slower ground might not suit her but she’s a nice prospect all
the same. DOLCITA has been easy to back but has the potential to play a part
KIM MUIR
Wouldn’t be a race I’d ever had a particularly strong
opinion in but it’s clearly interesting to see how LE BREUIL, under Jamie Codd,
and CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM, under Derek O’Connor get on. They’re both vying for favouritism
now but I was put onto PLAN OF ATTACK a while back, who featured in my 60
second clips while still 25/1 so I’d personally like a big run from him. DEISE
ABA was also mentioned in that video by Daryl and Trevor Hemmings has since
come out and suggested he’s the best chance he has of a winner this week
No comments:
Post a Comment