Cheltenham Friday 22nd October

 

13:55

 

CAMPROND 

Decent winner of the Persian War at Chepstow and despite that looking a weak renewal, he put some distance between himself and the others so in the scheme of this race, he setsthe standard

 

MARS HARPER

One of two for Elliott and Pioneer Racing with Davy booked. First win came this summer on gd ground and won the last day over just shy of today’s trip. Not too sure he’s the better of the two syndicate horses

 

OFF YOUR ROCCO

Ran on the 10th of October so this comes quick enough. Genuinely looks and very smart prospect for these middle trips

 

BANNIXTOWN BOY

Highest RPR under rules is just 102 and has run mostly on soft ground. Social runner

 

ALL CLENCHED UP

Probably another social runner, OR of just 109 and the step up on her penultimate run did exactly show her in the best light

 

Summary

This is a match between CAMPROND & OFF YOUR ROCCO, with that said, I’m curious to the fact Elliott has left both Pioneer horses in against each other. Jack has no other rides whereas Davy has three on the card, that would suggest to me that maybe we won’t actually see ROCCO, so it may prove fruitful to back CAMPROND when the market opens up to benefit from the Rule 4 rather than in the revised marketwhere he’ll be long odds on

 

 

14:30

 

FIDELIO VALLIS

Shoulders an 8lb penalty which on OR’s makes things quite close between a few. Has lots of experience though and ran well at Chepstow really behind a good horse in TEA CLIPPER especially as his best form has come over a bit shorter than that trip at Chepstow

 

SIR TIVO

Huge step up in class here and concedes weight to the field bar one. Hard to fancy

 

ANY NEWS

Ran a nice chase debut last month when only narrowly beaten in a Handicap. Has form at this track from December last season over hurdles but that was on the new course. Entitled to come on for that debut s in the mix, but may just find one too good

 

BUDDY RICH

0/3 over fences so far but behind some nice types in BLEU BERRY, DANCING ON MY OWN & CAPE GENTLEMAN. Only reached 121 over hurdles in Ireland and already a 130’s chaser, this 8yo is lightly raced but shouldn’t be the best horse in this field

 

THIRD TIME LUCKI

Death, taxes and Dan Skelton’s Novice Chasers jumping like bucks on their debuts. This horse ran 7 times last season in just 6 months so it’s not surprising he was over the top come the spring in my opinion. They’ve obviously given him a break, and a wind op, so really this is probably the time to catch him and we know he handles both courses here too. Exciting one for the first few months of the season I think

 

Summary

I’d be fairly confident that THIRD TIME LUCKI will be capable of jumping soundly on debut so despite that level of risk, and the yard being quiet, he’s the one I want to side with here. FIDELIO VALLIS has the experience and will be suited by the drop back in trip, but does have to give the selection 8lbs which I think will make the difference. ANY NEWS can run well but I’m keen to take on Irish Raider BUDDY RICH despite his match fitness

 

 

15:05

BARDENSTOWN LAD

Trainer John McConnell took this race last year with STREETS OF DOYEN for the same connections. He’d also already won over the trip and this horse looks a similar mould,in that he stays very well. One for the short list for sure

CADAGOGO

Elliott and Pioneer racing team up again here with this horse looking for his 4th win in a row. Spring a bit of a surprise the last day when stepping up in trip and back on home soil but I wonder if he’s vulnerable on this track with some strong stayers in the field

 

DRUMLEE WATER

Worth a try in here after handicap success at Perth off a mark of 125 over the 3m trip. H’s 4/5 since wind surgery this summer but this a big step up in class and wouldn’t be my idea of the winner

 

ONAGATHERINGSTORM

Finished second between two nice horses at Uttoxeter back in March and staying races will surely suit, but the last run came in a three horse race, so regardless of how easy he won, he beat a 106 rated horse home but has the benefit of being a second season novice

 

DRAGON BONES

Like quick ground and has only been beaten once when completing to date so clearly has ability and the desire to win. Not convinced he’s up to this, but could be proved wrong

 

ALMAZHER GARDE

0/4 as a hurdler and his last run in that sphere came as a 4yo behind GLORY AND FORTUNE in October 19 and we know that horse has just won the Welsh Champion hurdle off a mark in the 130’s. This horse is rated 139 over fences but was well held here at the festival off 135, so again I don’t he’s classy enough to win this, but hopefully can run well after a below par ending to the last season

 

GRACE A VOUS ENKI

Beaten favourite earlier this month on debut for the yard but only narrowly and it was by a confirmed high 120’s horse if not just a 130 horse. So with usual progression this horse should comfortably achieve the 130’s in staying hurdles, although I’d argue he may want a bit more time before he wants this kind of test, despite the ground and receiving weight helping with that

 

SIRUH DU LAC

David Pipe landed this race for connections in 2019 with RAMSES DE TEILEE and this looks a similar situation to me. This horse hasn’t raced over hurdles since he was a Juvenile and that dates back to early 2017. Has had issues since winning the Brown Advisory in 2019 and has changed yards, so it’s not quite the same approach as RAMSES. But we know he’s a mid 140’s horses which would in receipt of weight from most of the field means he’s on paper the one to beat. The issues he’s had though make him a tentative selection and of the remainder of the field I’d say BARDENSTOWN LAD would interest me most

 

 

15:40

 

FAIVOIR

Best form over hurdles came when stepping up in trip at the back end of last season so his debut performance over fences back at 2m at the beginning of this month can probably be upgraded. This said, the yard isn’t exactly firing right now, and I’m no totally convinced his mark of 144 is as generous as some others in here but a nice prospect all the same

 

BACK ON THE LASH

Has 3 wins from 4 chase starts this season but all of those came over further. Has won at this track albeit on the new course, and over hurdles he was well beaten in a handicap in 2019 off just 125

 

ANNUAL INVICTUS

Second to FAIVIOR on his chasing debut but only by 2 and a half lengths and gets an 8lb pull now. Good 4th in the Betfair Hurdle off 135 and that race is working out well

 

DANNY KIRWAN

Has never really shown what he’s made of following the hype surrounding him after his point and he is an 8yo going on 9 now. He beat TIME FLIES BY at Ascot which at the time looked strong form but doesn’t read so well now. He’s a half brother to APPRECIATE IT, although that’s where the resemblance ends. Sure he’ll win a race this season over fences, just don’t think it’ll be this

 

TORN AND FRAYED

Behind FAIVOIR here back in April while getting 4lbs, but was comfortably handled so not sure he’s going to be able to reverse that form

 

Summary

I think the key line of form in this race comes from FAIVOIR & ANNUAL INVICTUS who faced off on their chasing debuts earlier this month. The 8lb swing in favour of ANNUAL INVICTUS sways things in his favour for me, but this is the sort of race where price would make an influence on how I’d bet. I’d hope we’d get a bigger price for INVICTUS than FAIVOIR, if it was the other way round, I’m not entirely convinced I’d want to take him on as INVICTUS wasn’t the greatest jumper of a hurdler

 

16:15

 

GUARD YOUR DREAMS

6th in the Betfair Hurdle (form ties with ANNUAL INVICTUS) then a respectable 7th in the Coral Cu before another good effort when 3rd behind MY DROGO. Up 5lbs since then and doesn't scream out to me to be lightly treated, but progressive and this looks his trip

 

SAINT SONNET

9lb swing with GUARD YOUR DREAMS on their Coral Cup run and there was only 6 lengths between them. Beaten after in a weaker handicap off a 3lb lower mark (than the coral cup) but sported first time cheekpieces that day which they've persisted with here

 

COOLE CODY

10yo with plenty of experience round here but reverts back hurdles for the first time for Evan Williams. I think that's smart as his mark of 135 looks doable still at this age, he handles most ground  and last won over hurdles off 136 at the November meeting in 2017. Not sure the Jockey booking inspires confidence but still has his chance 

CLEMENCIA

5th in the 2020 boodles on debut for this yard off a 6lb higher mark but has been in no real form since. Stepping up in trip should suit, and he didn't have many runs last season so just maybe open to further improvement as he is only 5

 

DAL HORRISGLE

Alan King is in great form right now and this lad is 2lbs lower than his last run when sent off 11/4 in a similar race last month. Had won this summer and has his wind done before that last start so could possibly forgive that poor run and may be capable of more than he's shown, but does need to take a step forward and ground may be key to him

 

CAPTAIN MORGS

I remember a time when he was reported as being quite a machine and he's been sent off short off in 5 or his 6 starts. His second run came at Ascot where he beat ANNUAL INVICTUS off levels and there's 10 between that pair now so I'm happy to say he's much better than this current mark. Was travelling well enough when falling at the back end of last season which came against a 129 rated horse who I think he had well covered

 

SOMETIMES ALWAYS

6yo who strung three wins together last season starting in a handicap off 121, then a novice hurdle then a jumpers bumper. Beaten comfortably after but that was in better races so a chance now back in class and off this mark of 124

 

ART APPROVAL

Landed a Handicap in April on GF ground, and that was Exeter so it will have been like concrete. In fairness he won on Heavy before that so looks versatile and was beaten about 5 lengths at this meeting by FAIVOIR last year who is now rated 140, so 121 looks manageable, especially with another summer under his belt and this trip looks like once he's been crying out for and of course has that experience from round here last season

 

FOUND ON

This mare won in her own sex last month and is up 7lbs form that. Was 40/1 in that Maiden Hurdle mentioned before when falling behind FAIVOIR & ART APPROVAL so off the same mark the latter makes much more appeal

 

FITZROY

Has left Olly Murphy now and this will be his first run for new yard. Has scope off this mark but has been poor the last twice he's been seen and those runs came just a couple of months ago

 

MULLAGHMORE WAVE

Irish mare who is rated 116 here and was last seen winning against her own sex off 98 at Downpatrick over 2m 6f. Doesn't look likely to me, but the trainer knows how to win here

 

CALVINIST

Won two handicap hurdles this summer starting from a mark of 104. Probably held now and this is a much better race than he faced in his last few runs

 

Summary

Happy to whittle this race down to just two runners who are CAPTAIN MORGS & ART APPROVAL. The former doesn't look straightforward but clearly has a huge engine and the latter may have just been set up for a crack at this race from a long time out. The step in trip will certainly suit him so takes slight preference but I'll be dutching the pair

 

 

16:50

 

REDFORD ROAD

0 from 4 over fences but I think plenty expect there is still more to come from this horse. He's won at Cheltenham, albeit on the new course but you'd be taking a leap of faith to trust he's back to form and capable of chasing now

 

BOUGHTBEFORELUNCH

2nd in this race last year off a 6lb lower mark but arguably the ground may have been a bit slow for him last year so that maybe balances out the rise

 

BALLYEGAN HERO

10yo who is just 2 from 24 over fences but has bits of form to make him interesting although he's quite an in and out performer

 

MARQUIS OF CARABAS

11yo making his debut for Fergal O'Brien and is just 1 from 18 over fences and 2 from 30 under rules. Not for me

 

BERMEO

Last years winner off a 13lb lower mark, first run for new yard and all that said is enough to put me off him

 

PETITE POWER

12yo who left Fergal but now returns. Won this in 2019 off a 2lb lower mark but surely vulnerable to a younger horse

 

FIRST CLASS RETURN

Two wins over fences last spring saw him climb 16lbs in the handicap but was sent off 8/11 off this mark on his last start with excuses for the defeat so there's no doubt they think he can win off this number

 

SUPER CITIZEN

Irish raider run off 9lbs higher than his Irish mark and just one win from 13 chase starts under rules

 

DEBDEN BANK

Two wins this summer which followed a nice win in first time cheek pieces last December. Has had a wind op since those summer runs and relatively unexposed but not sure 116 is a doable number

 

ELAN DE BALME

Wants this kind of test and has had wind surgery although that didn't help before. is 2 from 13 over fences although the wins came in France but one I'm keen to keep an eye on and that I expect to be staying on strongly at the finish

JEAN GENIE

Ran a stormer at a big price earlier this month at Chepstow as clipped heels early on. Looks in need of this extended 3m trip so plenty to like despite this 5yo being yet to get his head in front

 

CARNET DE STAGE

Another Irish Raider this time one who is 10lbs higher than his native rating. Was impressive at Downpatrick and that was stepping up in trip for the first time so likeable claims

 

LEN BRENNAN

yet to win from 7 starts over fences but comes here off the back of what appeared to be a prep run over hurdles in the summer where he ran OK. Jockey is 3 from 7 over fences this season and there is absolutely no doubt he's better than this mark. To pick one line of form to suggest that would be his Novice Chase run behind OK CORRAL & IMPULSIVE STAR. Where he was only 2 lengths from winning and that was over 3m 1 1/2f in 2018 as a 5yo 

DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT

Narrowly beaten in a similar event at Haydock last April off a 4lb lower mark means he needs a second look. Had a spin over fences earlier this month which I think will have been to bring about fitness. He's 2 from 6 over fences so boasts a far better strike rate than most of these and has more to come at this trip

 

FACT OF THE MATTER

Down to a very low mark now of just 111 and has some really good course form. 11yo now but has been kept busy this summer so comes here in good fitness and all the while they've been bringing that mark down. Has to be there or there abouts surely?

 

STRICTLYADANER

Career high mark for win purposes now and well behind JEAN GENIE earlier this month. Also runs well fresh so no excuse for me last time out

 

FURIUS DE CIERGUES

Another handicap climber in 2021 and this mark just looks too high at the moment but comes off the back of a nice prep run and only 6

 

MADERA MIST

Only win came here on the new course last December but it was over 2m 4 1/2f and a 9lb lower mark

 

Summary

This race looks an absolute minefield so don't take my advice to seriously or let me put you off your fancies. I probably won't play in this race but will need it for the final leg of the pools and I'd be looking for cover. FACT OF THE MATTER cannot be ignored here and off this lowly mark of 111 so he's on the slip and DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT has more to come and a good record up to now so is included despite lacking experience. FIRST CLASS RETURN & JEAN GENIE also make my shortlist but so do CARNET DE STAGE & LEN BRENNAN, the latter mostly on account of the Jockeys form this year. Hope that helps :D

 

 

17:25

 

ADJOURNMENT

Runner up twice in modest point events, yard not amongst the winners

 

BALLYBREEZE

‘invincible when fell 2 out’ in his point but has run in a hood in his rules debut and well beat last month on hurdle bow

 

BRORSON

Ran in the same hurdle race as BALLYBREEZE and was clear of that runner, but may not be up to this

 

CARDANO

Peaked at 100 on the flat and wont be lacking for race fitness or have any complaints if the ground is on the quick side

 

CIRQUE ROYAL

96 rated on the flat 2 years ago. Had two spins after long break but form of those race doesn’t look strong

 

GO DANTE

Nicely bred and Olly Murphy has had success with his sister. Was a nice winner of a Wincanton bumper back in March but the race lacked depth so hard to get a handle on how good he is, but has potential

 

JETOILE

Was a long way behind THE BIG BREAKWAY in his first point and has failed to win in 3 more attempts

 

LEBOWSKI

Has changed yards twice since 2020 and makes stable debut here after failing to win from 4 bumpers

 

MISTER WATSON

7yo who has run 2nd twice from 5 hurdles starts but would need a step forward even though this race looks weak enough

 

MR JORROCKS

Trainer Bred and managed a win with the Dam but hard to think she’ll be anything special

 

STRATTON OAKMONT

Peaked at 108 RPR on penultimate bumper. Should make a jumper and will want a trip in time

 

TOP BANDIT

Irish Raider who wasn’t beaten far earlier this month. Took plenty of time to win his bumper but this may be an easier task than back home so a chance

 

WILD SHOT

115 Rated Irish hurdler who shapes like he might further but I think just lacks a gear

 

JOHN LOCKE

I’m very excited to see this horse run. It’s only the 1lb he receives as a 4yo so it’s barely worth mentioning, but he was tried in a G2 and G1 respectively last season and although well beaten (21 & 26) that was in the Adonis behind TRITONIC and at Aintree behind MONMIRAL, arguably the two best British juvenile performances of the season. Bled at Aintree, so probably better than that result too, although it’s never good to try and trust a bleeder

 

Summary

Pretty weak finale but JOHN LOCKE I’d say is going to be the best of this bunch without doubt so I’d fully expect a bold show, and there’s no other horse I’d want to be on although not a race for heavy investment and it’s worth watching the market

 

Chepstow Saturday - First 4 races

 

13:15

FOREVER FORWARD

Not sure Peter Bowen has trained many if any for Munir & Souede but modest flat performer was well handled in his first start for the yard but I suppose the quick ground is no issue

 

MAGISTRATO

French hurdler with just one start and a second to his name, but the third has won since and picked up a Listed race last time out so you’d think this lad could be above average in time

 

NAZWA

Two hurdles starts to date which were at least progressive but needs another step forward here really

 

ROCKY MAN

Not massively keen on his French winning form, but for one so young there’s plenty more to come you’d imagine. Love Doctor Dino as a sire and this quicker ground will probably be ideal

 

THEONLYWAYISWESSEX

3 flat runs so far for Alan King and has achieved a modest mark of 67. Wouldn’t be my idea of the winner

 

Summary – Small Field juvenile hurdle with the quick ground probably putting a few off running. Ground will suit ROCKY MAN who looks to have a chance and MAGISTRATO for me has the better French form so maybe it’s between that pair

 

 

13:50

ALLMANKIND

Top weight giving 12lbs to his nearest rival. Was undoubtably disappointing on seasonal reappearance in the Mastersons Hurdle at Cheltenham last season so this would appear very much a day out before tackling fences again this term. Probably his best hurdling performance did come at this track though and officially he’s 10lb lower than his Chase rating, plus he’s a year stronger so they won’t want to let him get clear

 

FLIC OU VOYOU

Easy winner of his novice hurdler here last season, that came as a second season novice. Think they’ll want to go over fences with him this season but could run well off this mark although I think he’ll find something better treated

 

HIGHWAY ONE O TWO

Aborted chase campaign last season and has slipped down to a reasonable mark now. I think this track will suit and I expect him to run well

 

MASTERS LEGACY

Beat POLISH who won his handicap hurdle off 130 so this lad being 2lbs higher means it’s definitely a workable number. Had a long break before two runs last season, so with a more straight forward summer under his belt I expect he’ll be winning soon enough, and this looks as good a chance as any

 

GALICE MACALO

Has shown more than a couple of glimpses of serious ability and the ground will be no issue. Last run was at this track so you’d think they’ve has this race in mind and he’s another who could run well

 

SCARLET DRAGON

Been around for a while and a great dual purpose horse. Last win came off 3lb higher mark at Market Rasen and back on this type of ground you’d have to think the mark looks manageable. Possibly vulnerable to a more improving type though

 

FRENCH CRUSADER

A mark of 129 looks incredibly light when you go back to his run behind EPATANTE in the intermediate hurdle. Twice ran last season and disappointed really but that was after a layoff so if things have bee straightforward for him since, I’ve no doubt he’s better than his mark

 

VALENTINO DANCER

3 wins from 6 starts since joining Fergal but a chance the handicapper has him in his grasp now.

 

RESTANDBETHANKFUL

Two wins last spring and has had a wind op over the summer which makes me think they’re taking this race seriously. Another who should be better than his current mark

 

BATHSHEBA BAY

Has won under Bryony but has also been off the track for some time. You’d think he’ll need this run

 

Summary – Plenty with cases to be made for them, I like HIGHWAY ONE O TWO, FRENCH CRUSADER (for my sins) and RESTANDBETHANKFUL looks to have a shout of the shorter priced runners

 

14:25

 

MISTER MALARKY

Cracking horse and I think this is his trip and ground. Can certainly run close of this mark but might just need this first run as longer breaks he’s only won once after, which was in a handicap chase of a 30lb lower mark

 

REAL STEEL

There’s been something about this horse that people have suggested he’s best right handed but he ran an absolute belter in the 2020 Gold Cup. There’s no doubt he’s talented, but also inconsistent. Fresh here from a wind op but that’s not unusual for this yard. Has a great record when fresh and almost certainly capable of better than todays mark

 

TRUCKERS LODGE

Midlands National winner in 2020 off an 11lb lower mark and might not find this race and conditions enough of a test

 

BRAVE EAGLE

Track, trip and ground will suit but it’s been such a long time since he’s shown any real enthusiasm so impossible to trust

 

EXELERATOR EXPRESS

Up 28lbs since the start of the year and was impressive the last day when trying this sort of trip for the first time. I’d be concerned that the handicapper has him held now, but he’s coming here in tremendous form

 

FIDUX

Has big weight pull now with EXELERATOR EXPRESS but has just looked like a typical summer horse this season and picked up a weak enough handicap back in June

 

KITTY’S LIGHT

4 from 7 over fences and the run at Sandown to end last season looked like this 5yo still has plenty more to come. This is a big ask, but can see her running a big race all the same

 

THE MIGHTY DON

Beat ENRILO at this meeting last year and truthfully, he did quite a lot wrong that day. Some reasonable efforts since an obviously likes it here so has a chance, but others may be off better marks.

 

FULL BACK

I’m still fuming that Mr Moore didn’t run this lad in a Handicap over fences following his really good Chase debut at Fontwell when in the mix with some really nice horses and only rated 125 himself back then. Now he’s a 140 horses, which I think arguably he wasn’t far off back then either. Beaten a nk back at Fontwell back in the spring but was reported to have finished lame. Jumping needs to have improved, but is entitled to have done and may want a bit of give in the ground (although has form on Good). I’ll be keen to watch how he goes because he’ll be winning a nice handicap this season for sure

 

IRISH PROPHECY

Couple of spins this summer and looked to be progressive in those, but this is a much classier race, so while I think he’ll be primed for a bold show, I’m just not sure he’s up to this

 

CAP DU NORD

Last win came back last November off a 15lb lower mark but has run OK since and bumped into a couple. Has always looked like he needs his first run so that’s a worry, but I know the trainer thinks he’s got a proper chance

 

CHIRICO VALLIS

Well beaten here in April and was stepped up to about this trip after which didn’t seem to help much. As a Novice he was held in reasonable regard but this 9yo probably does look quite exposed now

 

COURT MASTER

Just creeps in at the bottom and lightly raced for an 8yo. Mark looks manageable and goes well fresh so plenty to like

 

COBRA DE MAI

Can’t expect any improvement really having left the Skeltons last season, but seeing this lad running off 128 just makes him impossible to ignore. Should have come on from that run last month and be spot on for this race and while Bridget hasn’t won on this horse she knows him well enough. Wouldn’t be able to back him but no surprise should he go well

 

Summary – Think there's plenty in with a shout but COURT MASTER gets my vote

 

 

15:00

 

CAPTAIN TOM CAT

Peeled out a sequence last summer over fences and had done the same the previous year but no denying he was disappointed at Market Rasen last time when sent of favourite. Think this track will suit, and has more experience than others over fences so you can expect him to run somewhere close to his OR I think

 

FIDELIO VALLIS

Has won his last 4 starts although each of those was not under Harry Cobden, who last rode him on Chase debut when he was a well beaten favourite. Trip should be ok but may stretch him a little although ground will be fine. Didn’t run great here as a Novice hurdler but you could look to make excuses for him that day (ground, small break, beaten favourite prior, raced enthusiastically)

 

GRUMPY CHARLEY

Makes his chase debut here and although he’s raced mostly on slow ground under rules, he won his point on good ground. Has been pitched into reasonable company over hurdles and he’s 3 from 3 round here. His last of those wins was off 132 over hurdles, but he looked value for the 9lb rise. The right sort of horse for me who could go well here, if stalking the pack and jumping well. The step up in trip also looks ideal

 

KILTEALY BRIGGS

Horse I’ve liked for a long time and had Collic I think the summer before last. I’d be happy to draw a line through last season, but he’s a second season Novice now so that experience will be a great help this term I think. Probably is capable of winning this race in terms of class and I like him

 

PRESENTANDCOUNTING

Another summer jumper but he’s won 4 in a row since beaten favourite at Aintree in June. You can see him trying to go off in front and win this from the front but I think Tom Cat and Vallis will also be keen to race from the front so there could be too much competition for the front running types

 

TEA CLIPPER

Good winner of the Silver Trophy here last season so we know ground, track and trip will all play to his strengths. Yet to jump a fence in public but will have been jumping for a long time being an ex pointer from the yard (well running in Sophie’s name). Pretty good effort in the Coral Cup and they thought enough to get Rachel Blackmore on board at Aintree so I think his mark of 142 will only get higher this season. There’s plenty of pace in here so that will suit and he’s got a proper chance I think

 

Summary – Genuinely a race where every horse could win this, but that’s ideal really for looking at future prospects because there’s going to be some eye catchers in defeat I think. The three with wins under their belt all want to make the running I think so I’m keen to oppose that trio so I’d think that the winner comes from KILTEALY BRIGGS, GRUMPY CHARLEY or TEA CLIPPER. I’m expecting KILTEALY to improve through the season so he might just be best watched and while I think GRUMPY CHARLEY will love this race, he might just lack the class of TEA CLIPPER, who has been here and done it over hurdles so I think he’s the one to be on

 

 

 

Chepstow Season Opener - Friday 8th October

13:00 

CARRY ON THE MAGIC

7yo who has been tried in two hurdles under rules, both of which were very disappointing. Point form behind KILLER CLOWN (who himself is 0-3 over hurdles) read ok with that runner now 140 over the bigger obstacles. Yard will want to win this race but I’m not sure they’ll do it with this lad and the drop to the minimum trip is a curious move following a wind op

EARTH BUSINESS

Tizzards only runner in this race and a horse who has races on all types of ground though his three starts. Yet to win any, but does come here as a second season novice. Well beaten on his last start by a now 128 rated horse so this wouldn’t be the strongest form if he were to win this

FLASH KLASS

Has raced under rules in a Hunter Chaser back in March where falling. The minimum trip and smaller obstacles don’t scream out to be what he’s looking for and his first maiden point he was well behind POWER OF PAUSE, who himself hasn’t lived up to expectations and is around the mid 130’s at the moment

KNAPPERS HILL

Twice a winner in class 1 bumpers last season and both times under Megan Nicholls. Has a real touch of class about him and should be much too good for this field. Also won here on bumper debut on good ground so no issues with track, trip or going

LET’S HAVE ANOTHER

Not really sure his bumper run back in May is up to much, but interesting that Harry Redknapp has taken part ownership in this horse. Was fancied on that first bumper run by the yard, but you’d be taking a complete leap of faith (or something stronger) if you think he’ll be better than KNAPPERS HILL based on that run 

MEXICAN BOY

Another for Olly Murphy who was twice sent off favourite in his bumpers last spring. Well beaten really in both and breeding would suggest this horse could be a bit of a plodder

SUPASUNRISE

No form to go by for this lad but has plenty of siblings, none of which are anything to write home about. Probably will at least like the ground if it heads to the quicker side

THE PLIMSOLL LINE

Ran with promise on bumper debut behind another of Paul Nicholls bumper winners but was disappointing after. Maybe the better ground will help, but doesn’t look up to beating KNAPPERS HILL

TRUCKIN WITH PADDY

This lad wants a trip and his point form is not exactly exciting. One line when well beaten by the late HERE COMES JOHNNY may have offered a glimmer of promise, but he shouldn’t be up to this standard

WELSBY

9yo ex Trevor Hemmings horse formerly trained by Nicky Henderson who looks like a nice prospect when winning his bumper but that was back in November 2017. You’d have to assume that leaving those connections means he’s never going to fulfil his potential but he’s at least go something about him to suggest he could have been above average

PIKAR

Unraced runner for the Skeltons who gets his 4yo allowance here but not sure it’s worth the 1lb. Breeding doesn’t scream out of the page with the only sibling tackling obstacles and is 0-10

Summary – KNAPPERS HILL will absolutely bolt up bar incident

13:35

ASK DILLON

Second season Novice Chaser although it was just the one try over fences last term before reverting back to hurdles. He’s a horse I’ve always liked and wished they’d run him in the Albert Bartlett back in 2019 but hey ho. He’s over 3m here, the fall last season on his only chase start is a slight worry, but he likes it here and I think he handles any ground. He’s a solid mid 140’s marker

DOES HE KNOW

Really went off piste when running out in the Challow then disappointing I a handicap after in a first time hood. Smaller field not guaranteed to suit him but maybe jumping with help him concentrate

HONEST VIC

This ground will be a huge help to him and he was very progressive last season but 150 as an OR may be pushing it slightly. Just the one run here previously where he tailed off, but won has Cheltenham’s October meeting after a break on good ground so I’ve no major worries about the track

THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE

Promises to be an exciting chasing recruit, although Paul Nicholls mentioned the other night that he doesn’t jump fences that well, he doesn’t bend his back, so he’ll progress with each start. Has won here though and looks a decent prospect, but I reckon he’ll end the season with some form of headgear

Summary - you wouldn’t be surprised if any of these won here but this really is a Novice chase with just one prior start in the entire field, which resulted in a fall. I think ASK DILLON will run a big race, but I also think a lot depends on how well THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE jumps. DOES HE KNOW is going to improve for fences so could easily land this too

14:10

VIEUX LION ROUGE

Owners sponsors the race and won this back in 2019 off a 6lb lower mark. That was a proper ride that day and while he’s going to be ready for a bold show here, he’s vulnerable to the younger veterans I fear

POTTERS CORNER

Welsh National winner in 2019 off todays’ mark but Tudor can only claim 3 not 7 like before. This might just not be enough of a test for him and you wonder if the Welsh National again is the main aim this season 

DOUBLE SHUFFLE

Disappointing in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark when beaten 40l but has wo since. Maybe needs his first run these days but I expect him to be closer than 12 months ago

SIR IVAN

Can run well off a break and the ground will suit him maybe more than others but has been running well in this class so has a chance

SOME CHAOS

Runs off the back of a wind op and off the same mark as when 3rd at this meeting last season. The quicker the ground the better his chance and now in Veteran company he should be worth a few lbs more than his rating

GEORDIE DES CHAMPS

Has form round here with a win to his name and another taken away after the race. Not sure he does a lot in front but two wins this summer over hurdles and this mark of 130 over fences probably under estimates him. I think he’s a proper chance now stepping into older company

SOUPY SOUPS

Another just eligible for Veterans races and he’s now 7lbs lower than his last winning mark. No luck the last day when Sam was on board and badly hampered so I think he could be the type to run well in here and the ground should suit (ran poor here on soft and ground was used as the excuse)

VIVAS

Doesn’t win often but mark of 125 is a winnable won. Track should provide enough of a test even if he might want a bit further ideally but makes plenty of mistakes 

ASOCKSTAR

13yo now and really wants quick ground I think. Other probably on more workable marks than his INDY FIVE Last win came over fences in a Novice Handicap off a 2lb higher mark. Maybe wants a bit more of a test of stamina but back with David Dennis now but has often seemed to need that first run off a long break 

DANCING SHADOW

Beaten a shd in his race last year off a 1lb lower mark so that alone gives him every chance as he creeps in bang on 10 stone. Definitely has a race in him off this number

Summary – A few here you can make a case for and plenty you can expect to run well but I think that GEORDIE DES CHAMPS would be the one I’d side with despite not being the most straightforward. I think DANCING SHADOW has every reason to be bang there again so he’s the most significant danger I think 

14:45

CAMPROND

Has had a busing enough last twelve months but I think he needs genuine good ground, so might as well take his chance on the forecast ground. Probably susceptible to something classier though

COEUR SEREIN

7yo who’s won his last three starts and now up from 113 to 136. Not sure stepping back to this trip is ideal though and I don’t think he should be up to this

LUTTRELL LAD

Nice enough bumper form with a steady run at Aintree last spring and won his maiden last month as you’d expect for a 1/4 poke. This is probably quite a bit ask for a genuine novice hurdler but should enjoy the tempo and the trip should suit too

TILE TAPPER

Second season Novice hurdler officially rated 125. Maybe wants slower ground but he’s bumper win at Exeter looked good that day although the form isn’t up to much now

UP FOR PAROL

Not sure he would have won the last day if it wasn’t for the faller and his best form is at 2m although he should want further. I’m not convinced he should be up to this level

FIRST STREET

Twice beaten favourite in bumpers but won over hurdles at the first time of asking while sporting a hood then settled and look a nice horse at Warwick the last day. Probably wants genuine good ground so might not get that here but like many, worth a poke in a weak Persian

HIDDEN HEROICS

Only one point run to judge this lad by but he did get a RPR of 90 which is always noteworthy. Hard to really place, but definitely interesting being pitched in here on rules debut although again, ground and a weak field may be part of the reason

PASO DOBLE

I was seriously impressed by this horse at Kempton when behind Tritonic in the Adonis. I think if he’d had a bit more go his way he wouldn’t have been far off winning that. Duly followed up in May back at Kempton in very good style and looks a genuine type for this race. Ground will suit and I think he’s the one they have to beat

Summary – PASO DOBLE I think has a favourites chance and it’s mostly the unknown of HIDDEN HEROICS that puts me off being really bullish. LUTTRELL LAD might be best of the rest

15:20

CABOT CLIFFS

Reasonably well fancied for the Fred Winter but was pretty poor in truth then flopped next time out. Not sure he’s got a race like this in him off 135 just yet

CASA LOUPI

Definitely plenty to suggest his mark of 131 is workable. Most notably his two runs behind TRITONIC and his last run last term albeit at short priced odds on. Chance I’d say

HERBIERS

Impressive to win the Sandown handicap at the end of last season as a 4yo and possibly still has wins in him off this new 8lb higher mark. Beaten favourite only time going left to date though

HELL RED

I suspect he’ll be one of the most popular runners this weekend off 130 for Nicholls, especially given how well he won at this meeting last year. Couldn’t put you off him and despite his high knees, he might just want his quicker ground

ELHAM VALLEY

Best form in this race really with his 3rd in the Fred Winter off a 3lb lower mark. Was woeful here back in January but that was a reasonable Grade 1, and back in handicap company you’d think he’s got a good chance and has likely been minded for this race 

TINNAHALLA

Incredibly well treated with HERBIERS considers he was behind by 4lbs giving away 8lbs but is now in receipt of 4lbs from that rival. In effect a 12lb swing for a 4l loss. Another with a chance I’d say 

MEGAN

Bled the last day but I’m not convinced she’s obviously well treated for a handicap

CALDWELL

Very impressive on handicap bow back in March and the 8lb rise probably won’t be enough to prevent another bold display

PYRAMID PLACE

Can’t have him, he’s held by some of these on previous form but STATE CROWN was well behind him and they’re off around the same mark now

STATE CROWN

Really wants quick ground but I just don’t think he’s good enough

ORCHESTRAL RAIN Two handicap runs and two defeats, probably will enjoy the pace of this race but in previous years we’ve some horses get too carried away and go off to quick. Wants quick ground too 

PROGRESSIVE

Had a wind op and a flat spin in preparation for this but I’m not sure she’s going to enjoy this bigger field and taking on the boys

Summary – HELL RED will be popular and you can see why, but he’s the sort of horse you wouldn’t trust to hold your pint for a second. ELHAM VALLEY must have a huge chance and I also think TINNAHALLA is weighted to go well, but might just find one too good and I could see CASA LOUPI running a good race too

15:55

NINA THE TERRIER

Carries a winners penalty and beat a 110 mare in SUBWAY SURF so be a fairly weak race if she can win this too

FAMILIAR SPIRIT

Well beaten in every start, impossible to fancy 

MANSOLINE

Debut winner at 100/1 in a bumper but form looks naff and well held in mares bumper at Aintree in the spring 

MY KEEPSAKE

Arguably didn’t show her true self the last day, step up in trip will suit and if you can forgive that last start she could run well

WHENTHEPENNYDROPS

Not the most exciting debut nor breeding so not for me 

DOIREANN

Point looks just OK but his 4yo might have more behind than infront of her at the finish

ELUSIVE POLLY

Not much in her form

MONDORA

Half sister to Owners MALAYA and probably bumped into a couple on first two starts but was no excuses at Newbury after

RUNWITHTHETIDE

Won her small field point in good enough style but hard to pitch where she’ll be under rules. Given this doesn’t look a strong race she’d have a chance

Summary – Terribly weak looking race to my eye with MY KEEPSAKE, DOIREANN and RUNWITHTHETIDE probably the three I’d be keeping an eye on in the race but certainly no bets

16:25

HUNTMANS JOG

Sent off 2/1 in a Novices Handicap Chase at the end of last season for first start over fences but was 5th of 5. Dropped three pounds so you can expect him to be popular again, and the slight ease in ground probably will be welcome but does lack experience over these bigger obstacles and sports a first time Visor 

SMUGGLERS BLUES

Ran really well here last November off a 3lb lower mark albeit making lots of mistakes too. If he can sweeten his jumping he’s got to have a chance on ground that will suit

READY AND ABLE

10lbs lower over fences than his highest hurdle winning mark and Kevin Brogan an eye catching booking. I’m just not sure this horses wins enough

JEAN GENIE

Not shown anything to suggest can win off this mark 

FINGERONTHSWITCH

11yo now who it seem bizarre is running off 115 having peaked at 139 after just being touched off by OK CORRAL. Not been anywhere close to a winner since that day though so the wind op will have had to have performed a minor miracle

FROM THE HEART

4lbs higher than his last winning mark over fences which came last October just after landing this race itself off a 9lb lower mark. Possibly had this race in mind but does need to step forward

KILPIN

The first runner in this field which lit my eyes up when seeing him on the sheet. 112 rated chase who looked like he wanted the step up in trip last season although will strip stronger after another summer so might have his chance this season. Has had a wind op and despite never winning a race, I liked a couple of his runs last season so he’s one of the lower grade horses I’ll be keeping a close eye on all year

STRICTLYADANCER

Demands a career best effort off this mark and last two run back in the spring were not very encouraging 

CESAR ET ROSALIE

Runs off 109 and won off 108 on his penultimate start. Better ground is key to this lad and I think he might want a flatter track too ON CALL Well beaten on every start since joining this yard and down 15lbs because of it. Ran here the last twice end of last season and was maybe a little unlucky on the first of those. Still a Novice and best form is a long way back, but maybe has an outside chance

CLONDAW RIGGER

Fell when in with a chance here back in April when ON CALL would have been well behind. That was over abit further however he was 2l third in this race in 2019 ff an 11lb higher mark so for those two reasons he’s a massive chance back in this sort of race, on this sort of ground

BARDEN BELLA

Won two starts back so at least in some level of form although was woeful the next day when taking on the horse she’d just beaten. That lack of consistency worries me in a big field race like this but possibilities 

POWERFUL POSITION

Ex pointer who should improve for now going chasing and a very interesting starting point off a lowly mark of 90. Would be very punty to be with him but arguably wouldn’t be the biggest shock in here

Summary – Type of race I tend to avoid but I like KILPIN as one to watch this season, although I’m not saying he’s going to be winning loads of races. CLONDAW RIGGER would be my idea of the most likely winner while SMUGGLERS BLUE can go well too. I’m inclined to be more than just intrigued about POWERFUL POSITION starting off his chasing career in this race, having won his only point beating a horse who was 12 lengths behind big money purchase GINTO last spring