Friday, 8 October 2021

Chepstow Saturday - First 4 races

 

13:15

FOREVER FORWARD

Not sure Peter Bowen has trained many if any for Munir & Souede but modest flat performer was well handled in his first start for the yard but I suppose the quick ground is no issue

 

MAGISTRATO

French hurdler with just one start and a second to his name, but the third has won since and picked up a Listed race last time out so you’d think this lad could be above average in time

 

NAZWA

Two hurdles starts to date which were at least progressive but needs another step forward here really

 

ROCKY MAN

Not massively keen on his French winning form, but for one so young there’s plenty more to come you’d imagine. Love Doctor Dino as a sire and this quicker ground will probably be ideal

 

THEONLYWAYISWESSEX

3 flat runs so far for Alan King and has achieved a modest mark of 67. Wouldn’t be my idea of the winner

 

Summary – Small Field juvenile hurdle with the quick ground probably putting a few off running. Ground will suit ROCKY MAN who looks to have a chance and MAGISTRATO for me has the better French form so maybe it’s between that pair

 

 

13:50

ALLMANKIND

Top weight giving 12lbs to his nearest rival. Was undoubtably disappointing on seasonal reappearance in the Mastersons Hurdle at Cheltenham last season so this would appear very much a day out before tackling fences again this term. Probably his best hurdling performance did come at this track though and officially he’s 10lb lower than his Chase rating, plus he’s a year stronger so they won’t want to let him get clear

 

FLIC OU VOYOU

Easy winner of his novice hurdler here last season, that came as a second season novice. Think they’ll want to go over fences with him this season but could run well off this mark although I think he’ll find something better treated

 

HIGHWAY ONE O TWO

Aborted chase campaign last season and has slipped down to a reasonable mark now. I think this track will suit and I expect him to run well

 

MASTERS LEGACY

Beat POLISH who won his handicap hurdle off 130 so this lad being 2lbs higher means it’s definitely a workable number. Had a long break before two runs last season, so with a more straight forward summer under his belt I expect he’ll be winning soon enough, and this looks as good a chance as any

 

GALICE MACALO

Has shown more than a couple of glimpses of serious ability and the ground will be no issue. Last run was at this track so you’d think they’ve has this race in mind and he’s another who could run well

 

SCARLET DRAGON

Been around for a while and a great dual purpose horse. Last win came off 3lb higher mark at Market Rasen and back on this type of ground you’d have to think the mark looks manageable. Possibly vulnerable to a more improving type though

 

FRENCH CRUSADER

A mark of 129 looks incredibly light when you go back to his run behind EPATANTE in the intermediate hurdle. Twice ran last season and disappointed really but that was after a layoff so if things have bee straightforward for him since, I’ve no doubt he’s better than his mark

 

VALENTINO DANCER

3 wins from 6 starts since joining Fergal but a chance the handicapper has him in his grasp now.

 

RESTANDBETHANKFUL

Two wins last spring and has had a wind op over the summer which makes me think they’re taking this race seriously. Another who should be better than his current mark

 

BATHSHEBA BAY

Has won under Bryony but has also been off the track for some time. You’d think he’ll need this run

 

Summary – Plenty with cases to be made for them, I like HIGHWAY ONE O TWO, FRENCH CRUSADER (for my sins) and RESTANDBETHANKFUL looks to have a shout of the shorter priced runners


 

14:25

 

MISTER MALARKY

Cracking horse and I think this is his trip and ground. Can certainly run close of this mark but might just need this first run as longer breaks he’s only won once after, which was in a handicap chase of a 30lb lower mark

 

REAL STEEL

There’s been something about this horse that people have suggested he’s best right handed but he ran an absolute belter in the 2020 Gold Cup. There’s no doubt he’s talented, but also inconsistent. Fresh here from a wind op but that’s not unusual for this yard. Has a great record when fresh and almost certainly capable of better than todays mark

 

TRUCKERS LODGE

Midlands National winner in 2020 off an 11lb lower mark and might not find this race and conditions enough of a test

 

BRAVE EAGLE

Track, trip and ground will suit but it’s been such a long time since he’s shown any real enthusiasm so impossible to trust

 

EXELERATOR EXPRESS

Up 28lbs since the start of the year and was impressive the last day when trying this sort of trip for the first time. I’d be concerned that the handicapper has him held now, but he’s coming here in tremendous form

 

FIDUX

Has big weight pull now with EXELERATOR EXPRESS but has just looked like a typical summer horse this season and picked up a weak enough handicap back in June

 

KITTY’S LIGHT

4 from 7 over fences and the run at Sandown to end last season looked like this 5yo still has plenty more to come. This is a big ask, but can see her running a big race all the same

 

THE MIGHTY DON

Beat ENRILO at this meeting last year and truthfully, he did quite a lot wrong that day. Some reasonable efforts since an obviously likes it here so has a chance, but others may be off better marks.

 

FULL BACK

I’m still fuming that Mr Moore didn’t run this lad in a Handicap over fences following his really good Chase debut at Fontwell when in the mix with some really nice horses and only rated 125 himself back then. Now he’s a 140 horses, which I think arguably he wasn’t far off back then either. Beaten a nk back at Fontwell back in the spring but was reported to have finished lame. Jumping needs to have improved, but is entitled to have done and may want a bit of give in the ground (although has form on Good). I’ll be keen to watch how he goes because he’ll be winning a nice handicap this season for sure

 

IRISH PROPHECY

Couple of spins this summer and looked to be progressive in those, but this is a much classier race, so while I think he’ll be primed for a bold show, I’m just not sure he’s up to this

 

CAP DU NORD

Last win came back last November off a 15lb lower mark but has run OK since and bumped into a couple. Has always looked like he needs his first run so that’s a worry, but I know the trainer thinks he’s got a proper chance

 

CHIRICO VALLIS

Well beaten here in April and was stepped up to about this trip after which didn’t seem to help much. As a Novice he was held in reasonable regard but this 9yo probably does look quite exposed now

 

COURT MASTER

Just creeps in at the bottom and lightly raced for an 8yo. Mark looks manageable and goes well fresh so plenty to like

 

COBRA DE MAI

Can’t expect any improvement really having left the Skeltons last season, but seeing this lad running off 128 just makes him impossible to ignore. Should have come on from that run last month and be spot on for this race and while Bridget hasn’t won on this horse she knows him well enough. Wouldn’t be able to back him but no surprise should he go well

 

Summary – Think there's plenty in with a shout but COURT MASTER gets my vote

 

 

15:00

 

CAPTAIN TOM CAT

Peeled out a sequence last summer over fences and had done the same the previous year but no denying he was disappointed at Market Rasen last time when sent of favourite. Think this track will suit, and has more experience than others over fences so you can expect him to run somewhere close to his OR I think

 

FIDELIO VALLIS

Has won his last 4 starts although each of those was not under Harry Cobden, who last rode him on Chase debut when he was a well beaten favourite. Trip should be ok but may stretch him a little although ground will be fine. Didn’t run great here as a Novice hurdler but you could look to make excuses for him that day (ground, small break, beaten favourite prior, raced enthusiastically)

 

GRUMPY CHARLEY

Makes his chase debut here and although he’s raced mostly on slow ground under rules, he won his point on good ground. Has been pitched into reasonable company over hurdles and he’s 3 from 3 round here. His last of those wins was off 132 over hurdles, but he looked value for the 9lb rise. The right sort of horse for me who could go well here, if stalking the pack and jumping well. The step up in trip also looks ideal

 

KILTEALY BRIGGS

Horse I’ve liked for a long time and had Collic I think the summer before last. I’d be happy to draw a line through last season, but he’s a second season Novice now so that experience will be a great help this term I think. Probably is capable of winning this race in terms of class and I like him

 

PRESENTANDCOUNTING

Another summer jumper but he’s won 4 in a row since beaten favourite at Aintree in June. You can see him trying to go off in front and win this from the front but I think Tom Cat and Vallis will also be keen to race from the front so there could be too much competition for the front running types

 

TEA CLIPPER

Good winner of the Silver Trophy here last season so we know ground, track and trip will all play to his strengths. Yet to jump a fence in public but will have been jumping for a long time being an ex pointer from the yard (well running in Sophie’s name). Pretty good effort in the Coral Cup and they thought enough to get Rachel Blackmore on board at Aintree so I think his mark of 142 will only get higher this season. There’s plenty of pace in here so that will suit and he’s got a proper chance I think

 

Summary – Genuinely a race where every horse could win this, but that’s ideal really for looking at future prospects because there’s going to be some eye catchers in defeat I think. The three with wins under their belt all want to make the running I think so I’m keen to oppose that trio so I’d think that the winner comes from KILTEALY BRIGGS, GRUMPY CHARLEY or TEA CLIPPER. I’m expecting KILTEALY to improve through the season so he might just be best watched and while I think GRUMPY CHARLEY will love this race, he might just lack the class of TEA CLIPPER, who has been here and done it over hurdles so I think he’s the one to be on

 

 

 

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