13:10 – Novices’ Chase – 3m ½f
DOES HE KNOW
2 from 2 over fences including a course a distance win the last day where UNDERSUPERVISION ran through the rail on the run in and I remember watching that in real time thinking he might have been beaten
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
Behind DOES HE KNOW at Chepstow but was always going to improve with experience and duly stepped forward at Exeter after. Possibly would prefer soft conditions but no real excuse here
STREETS OF DOYEN
Had won here over hurdles and was 3rd in the Albert Bartlett. On these terms has a chance, but was very poor the last day so can’t afford to jump or travel like that again
OSCAR ELITE
Second in the Albert Bartlett here and should absolutely make a better chaser. The yard wasn’t quite firing last season either, but they are flying right now. In receipt of weight means he’s got his chance and was entered at this meeting last month so I think he’s been ready for a while now
UNDERSUPERVISION
I do think he would have been very close to beating DOES HE KNOW if not for running out the last day and that was his Chase debut and he’s only has 3 runs over hurdles. That means for me there’s much more to come and clearly has a chance
Summary
Could see any one of the five landing this and more than ever jumping will be crucial to the result. I do rate DOES HE KNOW but I think he may have been beaten the last day or close to it and while he beat THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE that horse looks much improved after. OSCAR ELITE is a very interesting recruit to fences, and a blemish free round with the weight he receives put him right there. UNDERSUPERVISION can only improve and was so close here last month you have to give him every chance again. Wide open affair and I’ll be interested to see how they price them before deciding where I might find a play
13:45 – Handicap Chase – 3m 3½f
YALA ENKI
GO ANOTHER ONE
FORZA MILAN
EMPIRE DE MAULDE
THE MIGHT DON
ROCKY’S TREASURE
14:20 – Shloer Chase – 2m
NUBE NEGRA
Jump at the last arguably cost him a Champion Chase victory in March and has a great record fresh
POLITOLOGUE
Champion Chaser in 2020 but fear his best days are behind him
ROUGE VIF
Beat NUBE NEGRA in the Kingmaker as a Novice and Handicap effort here last October was pretty eye catching. Better the ground the better his chance but not out of it on these terms
PUT THE KETTLE ON
4 from 4 round here and I often try to find reasons to take her on but she’s only 7 going 8 so could yet have more to come
Summary
I’d struggle to split NUBE NEGRA & PUT THE KETTLE ON but I’d have slight preference for the former. HoweverROUGE VIF is punty enough as you don’t know which version will turn up but on these terms he’s worth a tentative punt around 7-8/1
14:55 – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½f
ADAGIO
Runs here after a summer break and wind surgery. Found out a little in the spring G1’s but was far from disgraced finishing second both here and at Aintree. 147 wouldn’t look the most lenient mark but hard to not see him being there or there abouts at the business end of this race
BALLYANDY
Just 3 wins from 22 starts and although he’s amassed a third of a million in prizemoney I’d initially be looking to oppose him. However, that said, if there was a deluge of rain I could see him running well and he would certainly be overprice, but that forecast is unlikely. Was second in this race last year off an 8lbs higher mark, but was never in the race last month at Ffos Las whereas last year he was second in the same race prior
JESSE EVANS
4th in the Galway Hurdle in Ireland behind SALDIER and only runs here in the UK off a 4lb higher mark. 7 runs over hurdles with 2 wins shows this 5yo can win races and likely has more to come, especially with the ground very much in his favour
GLORY AND FORTUNE
Good winner of the Welsh Champion Hurdle last month and the 8lb rise seems about fair. Ran here in December 2019 and as a little underwhelming considering how well in he ran the time after behind BUZZ. Maybe just not up to this but wouldn’t want to put anyone who fancies him off
TRITONIC
Beaten by a better horse the last day and despite giving that runner 8lbs I’d fancy the winner to progress passed him. Wouldn’t be for me
CAMPROND
Impressive winner of the Perisian War and despite that looking like, and being a weak renewal there was lots to like about the way he did things. Raced and won here after, where probably never looking in doubt and the mark of 140 would have looked high if you asked me before those two runs, but now I think it’s a fair number and the drop back in trip can help. He’s also the horse who when I profiled the race came out on top, and clearly on top too
BOTOX HAS
Ran over fences last month when falling at the first and was last seen at the festival pulling up in the coral cup off 142. 2lbs lower now and this trip should be more suitable, but this wouldn’t have been the plan although has a chance
TUDOR CITY
2 wins from 28 hurdle runs shows he’s no winning machine but can put in some decent runs from time to time, including in that Galway hurdle when a little over 2 lengths behind JESSE EVANS off levels but now gets 4lb. Style of running (from the back) may not suit this course, but I think he’ll run a massive race at a big price and Maxine O’Sullivan notched up a 3 timer on THE JAM MAN over here, although not quite in this class of race. Her usual mount (SUPER CITIZEN) runs in Punchestown but she’s here instead
ROCKADENN
Has left Paul Nicholls and has his first start for the new yard here, can only be a fact-finding mission
BUA BOY
Irish Raider with 6lb UK tax added onto his mark. Last won in August 2020 off a 17lb lower mark so while running well he’s likely to find at least a few too good here
MARIE’S ROCK
Was backed the last day but ultimately couldn’t get near a runaway winner. Likely she’d better than she showed that day. Well beaten favourite last season in the Gerry Fieldon but was hampered after two out, at which she’d already decided to hang. Maybe she sulks but she’s got ability if she decided to throw it all in
STRAW FAN JACK
Ran a big race here last month when beaten a head. Now up 2lbs into a harder race means I think he’s held
WEST CORK
Has been off for a long time. Reason to think his mark of 134 is doable as he looked a nice prospect in 2019/20. Hard to really evaluate because of the layoff but there’s been money for him although I think he’s plenty short enough now and breeding suggests he wants a trip
ADVANCED VIRGO
Held with BUA BOY on his Listowel run (beaten 6 getting 4lb, now gets 3lb) and not for me
NO ORDINARY JOE
His mark off 133 is hard to trust given he won easily back in May but beating a 110 horse and the followed up with another comfortable win beating a now 122 hurdler. Both those wins came at the middle trip which is where I see his future lying for this season at least and he was a fit horse last spring. Really does fall into the could be anything category but should really be suited to a fastly run 2m handicap so you can see why he’s where he is in the market. Similar ish profile to CHAMP, who was a second season Novice who started off him a Handicap in which he bolted up before running 2nd in a Ballymore
MOUNT WINDSOR
Poor in his last two starts and this is even tougher
CORMIER
I fancied him for the Welsh Champion Hurdle where he was just beaten by better horses on the day. Can expect another nice run here but will want to be ridden more prominentlythan in the race last year but is 4lb lower now and probably a better horse so has a chance
GALICE MACALO
She was far too keen and well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle last season off a 3lb higher mark and travelling is usually her strong suit. Beaten at Chepstow earlier this season which she can step forward from but I can’t see her winning this
ROWLAND WARD
Up 9lbs since beating CAMPROND at Aintree last April but that was off levels so meets him here on 9lb better terms. That line of form alone means at 33/1 he’s maybe overpriced. Found trouble in both his starts this season but not enough to cost him. Drop back to 2m here should suit
MICK MAESTRO
Nothing really in his form to suggest he’s up to making his presence felt in here off 130
Summary
4yos in the race have won 4 renewals since 2006 but prior to that you’d need to go back to 1988 and most winners are aged 5 or 6. I do really like the idea of a punt on TUDOR CITY at a big price, and think with enhanced place terms he’s a definite play. NO ORDINARY JOE could well be a much better horse than his current mark and I do think he might just be a serious prospect so while he’s well found, I think he’s the one I like at the head of the market. CAMPROND came out on top with the stats pick when I profiled the race so he’s got to be mentioned as has Jamie’s fancy JESSE EVANS who is the right sort of age and progressive enough to go well here. CORMIER is a nice horse but I just can’t see him winning. My likely bets in here would be NO ORDINARY JOE with a smaller stake on CAMPROND and I’ll look to hit TUDOR CITY in the place markets
15:30 – The Sharp Novices’ Hurdle – 2m ½f
I LIKE TO MOVE IT
Carries a 3lb penalty but so much to like from his last run and win here because he looked quite immature which means there’s huge potential
SONIGINO
Stable debut for Paul Nicholls and purely one to watch as the horse he beat in June has since been hammered at Wetherby. Not for me
PIKAR
Nice run behind a good horse at Chepstow but this is arguably tougher and the third from that race has been well beat since
WASHINGTON
Beat a nice horse in MARBLE SANDS who carried a penalty in that bumper. Won last month nicely on hurdling debut but I don’t think there was much in behind
Summary
I LIKE TO MOVE IT is the best horse in this field and although he’s raced more than the others, he looked to have so much more to come and is only a 4yo turning 5. Course and distance win latest is another huge positive and should take some beating
16:00 – Bumper – 2m ½f
AUCUNRISQUE
Gave weight away to the trio in front off him here in October and lost two places right by the line. On these terms can expect a bold bid but I’m just not sure how good he really is
DIBBLE DECKER
Winning point form which the second has shown to be only average
HARDY FELLA
Irish runner who was runner up in a bumper last month. Form looks nothing out of the ordinary
LEADING CHOICE
Won his bumper at Ffos Las last month at 16/1 and had bucked the jockey off pre-race. Be interesting to see how he handles the prelims, but I like him more than most
ROYAL MOGUL
Twice beaten in points and nothing in the breeding other than some middle distance stamina
SUKAT
Half sister has OK form after running on the flat. Curious more than anything
TIMEFORATUNE
A horse I was desperate to take on a Chepstow as I don’t believe his first bumper form is anything at all, but he got the job done and the pair pulled well clear and this doesn’t look any harder
FLYING SARA
Beat a now 118 rated hurdler with ease and by 8 lengths last October and that was her first run after winning her debut bumper in October 2019. Entitled to have progressed further and related to some nice enough types (Full Sister to SAMARQUAND a 130’s horse) and gets that 7lb maresallowance
Summary
Fairly weak looking race and I was always going to take on the Nicholls runner TIMEFORATUNE, however I genuinely fancy this FLYING SARA and if the 8 runners hold up then she’s a monster ew bet as 11/2. I fear her price may shrink slightly by then, especially with a non-runner, but she’s the one I want to be on here
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