SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE
ABACADABRAS – 4th in last season’s Champion Bumper where he looked a bit green on the run up, possibly a bit quirky (he ran out on his race prior) or maybe just didn’t enjoy the hill but a good chance he’s turned a corner now although I’m still not sold that Cheltenham is going to suit. He looked good when running ENVOI ALLEN so close at Fairyhouse and you’d have to argue that on form he deserves to a bit shorter given he’s a Grade 1 winner too. He’s also got the 4 runs over hurdles which is good experience but there’s just something about him I’m not sold on as a potential Supreme winner
ALLART – Two emphatic hurdle wins but both in class 4 events. Despite that lack in racing class he does appear to have settled better now and slightly under the radar. Wouldn’t be the most likely winner but wouldn’t be the biggest shock either
ASTERION FORLONGE – Biggest worry with this lad is that he does jump to his right, which in most cases would be enough to conclude his chance here, but I have been taken by the speed he’s shown, especially for a horse who should be better over further. Made light work of winning the Grade 1 at Leopardstown which has been a great pointer to this race and managed that without Paul Townend on board. Does like to be up with the pace which should suit in this race but there are straighter jumpers than him in here
BERKSHIRE ROYAL – Will be making his debut in this race which I believe has been tried 5 times since 1997 but those have been well beaten on each occasion. Owner has used David Crosse before but away from the trainer he’s of little serious interest, although no doubt one to watch
CAPTAIN GUINNESS – Won his Maiden well enough then ran ANDY DUFRESNE close in the Grade 2 at Punchestown but comes here with just two races under his belt and that inexperience will make winning this race very tough
CHANTRY HOUSE – Comes across as a horse who would probably excel over further but has quickened nicely including when round here but he was getting weight that day and he needs to take a big step forward on what he’s shown to be winning this. Same stats apply to him as SHISHKIN in terms of Henderson and lack of Graded form
EDWARDSTONE – Some neat form this season when beating Tolworth winner and Ballymore Trial winner with a penalty. Tried hood at Haydock in ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him so comes out of that race with a nk second which also reads well. Likely to be shy of Grade 1 class and may prefer a flatter track but a nice horse all the same and I think he’ll have more behind than in front of him
ELIXIR D’AINAY – The third of Willie Mullins runners and this lad has been tried over longer trips and wasn’t disgraced when second to ENVOI ALLEN on his penultimate start (which came in a Grade 1). Impossible to completely rule out now back down in trip as he’ll enjoy the furious nature of a Supreme
FIDDLERONTHEROOF – Twice impressive at Sandown on slow ground and entitled to have needed his first run when second to THYME HILL which reads as nice form. A little disappointing after with a view to being a Supreme winner when beaten by EDWARDSTONE and this is the deepest race he will have run in so he might just find one or two too good. Does come here with a proper chance and will enjoy any ease in the ground
HOLLOW SOUND – Just the one spin over hurdles when well beaten last month. Looks more of a token entry although his bumper run behind ERIC BLOODAXE is an OK line
JABBAAR – Very unlikely player in here and is exposed enough after three starts
MARIO DE PAIL – Notched up his bumper win at the second time of asking then bolted up in an ordinary novice hurdle after. Ran OK the last day but likely to be found out at this grade
SHISHKIN – There is no denying that this horse looks to have a great deal of ability and Nicky Henderson hasn’t minced his words when making comparisons with ALTIOR. He also talks of this horse as an Arkle prospect already. But to counter that, Nicky is often bullish and since FLOWN in 1992 (who was also the last winner to sport headgear) Henderson has 1 winner from 36 runners which of course was ALTIOR. You’d also have to go back to MENORAH to find the last winner with no Graded form and 8 of the last 11 had won either a Grade 1 or Grade 2.
He did fall on his hurdling debut but he couldn’t have been anymore impressive since, although despite what Nicky says about him I think he will appreciate a trip, and sooner rather than later. He’s full of speed too so for now he should handle a Supreme and we know that stamina assured horses fare well here. He absolutely could be the winner of a Supreme and there are question marks around them all, but he looks a leading player, despite this being the acid test
SOVIET PIMPERNEL – One I do like at a price and he is at least a Graded winner. Not sure what the riding arrangements will be but with respect to Kevin Sexton he might have won the Masterson Hurdle back in October round here under a more Cheltenham experienced jockey. Also, will be much better on a sounder surface but handles ease too so I think he’s versatile enough to run a big race, although I’m under no illusions that he’ll need some good fortune to be up with the winner. Has 18 lengths to find with ABACADABRAS and meets him here on 3lb worse terms
WHATSNOTOKNOW – Certainly progressive this season but even his expected improvement would be way short of what it requires to be winning this
HEAVEN HELP US – The one huge line which afford her to look overpriced is when she won round here in October beating MASTER DEBONAIR. Was later second to ABACADABRAS although possibly starting to look exposed now
Summary – This looks a well above average renewal so I think there will be a few to follow from this race going forward. As it stands I feel that holes can be picked in most of the runners but I do really like ASTERION FORLONGE. His price has gone now and he does jump to his right which would typically be enough to put me off a Cheltenham runner. SHISHKIN looks class too but this will be serious test for him while ABACADABRAS comes here with some solid looking form, although his peak effort came in defeat which is not something I’m keen on. CHANTRY HOUSE looked like he would want further than this but clearly has speed although it’s important to remember he was receiving weight when he won round here earlier this season. FIDDLERONTHEROOF has been visually very taking in his two efforts on slow ground at Sandown. The fact he’s been narrowly beaten the twice before that (regardless of how that form has been franked) makes me worry he’s running for a place at best. CAPTAIN GUINNESS is open to plenty of improvement but his lack of experience is an obvious concern whereas EDWARDSTONE is a bit more battle hardened. In fact his run at Haydock with the first time head gear on ground plenty slow enough for him should entitle his price to look quite big. ELIXIR D’AINAY may too look overpriced if the drop back in trip is the key to him as he’s shown he has an engine. ALLART has bolted up in a couple of weak races so would need to step forward from what I’ve seen and so too would SOVIET PIMPERNEL but he’s got a bit more to like about him. He won a Grade 3 the last day and was narrowly touched here in the 4yo Hurdle earlier this season. That’s valuable course experience and the better ground the ground the better his chance.
This should go without saying, but; please make sure you take advantage of bookmakers promotions. Hills go 7 places EW in this race so there’s plenty of appeal for EW backers to play a couple in here. Likewise with win punters, Skybet offer a £10 moneyback promotion while Paddy are offering money back for 2nd, 3rd & 4th in all races on Day 1 (field size rules apply)
Selection – ASTERION FORLONGE
Lively Outsiders – SOVIET PIMPERNEL, EDWARDSTONE
ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE
AL DANCER – Won here on Chasing Bow back in October and has raced without the hood since. I’d have expected that to be applied once again here but even so he does have a bit to find
BREWIN’UPASTORM – 2 from 2 over fences and has a very likeable attitude to chasing. Looks brave and trusting and was a fair 4th in last season’s Ballymore. Fell at the course prior to that but was running very well so he’s one I’d expect to be right in the mix. Wasn’t quite seeing out his races last term so the wind op looks to have certainly helped and this looks right up his street
CASH BACK – Not beaten far by NOTEBOOK at the Dublin Racing Festival and an argument to be made for him being able to bridge that gap under Paul Townend who rode DUC DES GENIEVERES to success in this race last season. 8yo but has only had 6 runs for Willie Mullins and 13 races all told, so possibly open to a bit more although has no Cheltenham experience, so how he travels is an unknown. Worth mentioning that UDS came in also with no course form and Willie has likened the pair which is no small statement
ESPRIT DU LARGE – 2 wins from 3 starts over fences but despite picking up the Grade 1 Henry VIII’s Novices Chase in December I think he still has a bit to find to be an Arkle winner. Still unexposed to every chance he can produce more, but he’ll need to and he’s another without course experience
FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES – Get’s no weight in the Arkle but would get 1lb from his rivals in the Marsh. Looks to be exposed as not quite good enough at this trip after being held by NOTEBOOK on 7lb better terms and in beating MELON just 3l when getting 8lbs. Best performance came at 2m 4f so the Marsh would have looked the best place for him to go but it'll be interesting to see if connections have got it right because this doesn't look an easy race
GLOBAL CITIZEN – Serious effort at Kempton in the Wayward Lad and I can only imagine the buzz David Bass got off him in that race. Well held by BREWINUPASTORM on their Carlisle race and this track will not play to his strengths. Good chance at Aintree you’d think
NOTEBOOK – Undoubtedly the best of the Irish on what we’ve seen, and his latest win could probably be upgraded given how unsettled he was in the prelims. However, he was also keen to post before the Ballymore here last year when a 50/1 shot and ran like his odds would suggest. He’s also been on the go since October so I feel we’ve seen as good as he’s going to be this season and there is a chance that back here, with the travel and festival atmosphere (especially so on Day 1) he might begin to plateau
OUR MERLIN – Comes here off the back of one chase start which in winning a Novice Handicap Chase. Interesting that they didn’t want to exploit that mark next time up but this 8yo probably wants to explore his chance to line up in a Novice Grade 1 at the festival
ROUGE VIF – Won the lightening Novices Chase at Warwick in very good style in a first time tongue-tie. That allows him to be taken seriously in here but has plenty to find with PUT THE KETTLE ON on their previous encounter round here earlier this season but had the wind op since too
MAIRE BANRIGH – Won latest over 2m 4f but that really stretched her so this trip looks her optimum. This would be her toughest test to date and her earlier beating of THOMAS DARBY doesn’t read as well now after his poor Chasing display after
PUT THE KETTLE ON – Good winner here in November and not seen since but had plenty of racing over the summer so the break might suit. Does have a bit to find on Official figures but a likeable 6yo who at least has course winning form with a couple of these in behind
Summary – 4 single figure priced runners here and it’s probably only NOTEBOOK’S pre-race excitement that has meant he’s not the short price fav his form warrants. He’s got the beating of FAKIR D’OUDARIES and now meets him on much better terms and it’s been proven how hard this race is for a 5yo. CASH BACK was also beaten by NOTEBOOK, but with Trainer and Jockey landing this race 12 months ago, they might just be able to bridge that gap with their Cheltenham experience, especially if the fav boils over in the prelims. That’s really the only concern with NOTEBOOK but I’d take course form over potential every single time when the horse in question has been lively to post both this season and at the course before.
BREWINUPASTORM looks a very nice 2m chaser although I would have quite liked to see him once more before this. He’s had his wind tinkered since last season where he wasn’t quite seeing out his races but I think he comes here with a serious chance. MAIRE BANRIGH will be better at this trip but shouldn’t be up to winning this and I’d be tempted to lean towards PUT THE KETTLE ON in we were looking at a Mares Match bet. ESPRIT DU LARGE & GLOBAL CITIZEN both come here off the back of winning decent trials for this race but the former might not be up to this and the latter is better suited to flatter tracks.
Selection – BREWINUPASTORM
Lively Outsider – PUT THE KETTLE ON
THE ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
VINNDICATION – Really impressive on his last start when bolting up in a first time tongue tie at Ascot. Probably wasn’t as his best here last season in the JLT but this longer trip should suit now but he’s off a high enough mark now
BRAVE EAGLE – I gave this horse a squeak in the Ladbrokes Trophy and he wasn’t great to be honest. Probably wants some better ground too
CEPAGE – Got the job done here after three tries this term. Mark reads as though it could be workable still however his runs came on the New course and this will be his first try on the Old
VINTAGE CLOUDS – This mark demands a career best effort but was second in this race last year and staying on, albeit off a 7lb lower mark
MISTER MALRKY – Very impressive win the last day under a very good ride from Jonjo. He’s back in the saddle again and a chance if he’s recovered. He was well beaten, but he was 4th in last years RSA so has that course form to boot
KILDISART – Looked to be held for a run the last day behind MISTER MALARKY and you’d think this is the one they wanted. Has won here (although on the new course) and his mark is coming back down. He beat MISTER MALARKY at Aintree giving him 4lbs last year off a 3lb lower mark so meets that rival on 5lbs better terms and he spanked him by 5l that day
DISCORAMA – Easy to forget he’s just a 7yo but would have been on the radar for plenty for something like the Ladbroke Trophy this season. Gets in here off 148 which looks an OK mark but even more interesting after a wind op. Form from last year reads quite well on reflection and he ran a big race in the 4 miler at last years festival. I do fear his price has dried up now though
WHO DARES WINS – Unpenalized for his Kempton win which looks lenient but does still have to prove he stays. This is also notoriously tough too so they must believe he has a good bit in hand
ATLANTA ABLAZE – Another runner fresh from a wind op and another who ran in last years 4 miler. Didn’t enjoy the best luck that day but this Mare has a chance if the ground stays soft
ACTIVIAL – 6lbs lower than last year when 6th beaten 7 and ¼ lengths so on that line alone he’s got a chance. Didn’t seem to not stay and it’s interesting how they’ve campaigned him this season
MULCAHYS HILL – Race sponsors runner who I’m sure will be popular. Great attitude from this horse and I think he’s got mileage in this mark and will enjoy the trip. Must have a chance
BURBANK – Not sure this is his favourite track and his mark looks high enough now
COGRY – Loves it here but not getting any younger and this won’t be easy off his current mark
TOWNSHEND – Won like a good thing the last twice and 6lb rise might underestimate him as may his price. Nice claimer on top (not great for the trends guys) and has always looked like he wanted a trip
COBRA DE MAI – Down to a very interesting mark now of 142 and with Harry Skelton on board for the first time this season this looks likely to have been a long term plan. Cheekpieces and tongue tie are back on too which is a positive but often talked about as a better ground horse
THE CONDITIONAL – Good winner here back in October off an 8lb lower mark. Very good second in the Ladbroke Trophy then a fair 4th after. Dropped 3lbs for that run which means he’ll need a career best effort but he’s got an outside chance
ELWOOD – Often there or there abouts in his races but not sure he wants this extra trip and has no course form
SOUPY SOUPS – Narrowly beaten at Wincanton in the Badger Beers but has been kept for this race since off a 4lb higher mark but does need a career best effort
QUARENTA – Has been well beaten here in the past so hard to fancy until back on a flatter surface
NO COMMENT – 137 looks a winnable mark and he was going well enough when falling on his last start when back up in trip. Should have a chance, but others may be more reliable
VIVAS – 3lbs out the handicap but has won of this OR. Might be one for another day now
ICE COOL CHAMPS – 4lbs out the handicap and this demands a career best effort so little chance
Summary – As you’d expect of a Festival Handicap there are cases to be made for plenty of runners here but given how the market looks now I think I can bring this down to handful worthy of a mention. NO COMMENT has a chance but is hard to catch right and comes here off the back of a fall. BIG RIVER might just be primed for this race given how well he ran in it last year and a more confident ride can see him involved. COBRA DE MAI ticks plenty of boxes now he has his headgear re applied so would be on the shortlist along with TOWNSHEND, ACTIVIAL & MULCAHYS HILL.
They all look capable of running well at reasonable prices but I do think KILDISART is the winner of this race. The trip suits, he’s run well enough here in the past over a trip too short including when winning off 141. He was ridden quietly enough the last day and if it’s no worse than soft all over he’ll handle the ground
Selection – KILDISART
Lively Outsiders – MULCAHYS HILL & ACTIVIAL
CHAMPION HURDLE
BALLYANDY – Runs at about 2m read – 1121142314231 with the two 4ths coming in two big festival races, first at Aintree in the Grade 2 bumper and then 4th in the Supreme. No Champion Bumper winner has won a Champion Hurdle (Bumper run since 1992) but a case could be made for him to be on the premises despite his OR of 155 usually being short of what it takes to win this
CALL ME LORD – Won the International here in December to dispel the assumption he can only go right-handed. Undoubtably disappointing at Sandown after but his run prior at Ascot was an OK effort and he does act on any ground. Good chance that the pace of a Champion Hurdle will suit and likely to bring out the best in him. ROOSTER BOOSTER did the International and Champion Hurdle last in 02/03 and although he won at Sandown in between, he was well below his best too
CILAOS EMERY – I’d suggest this gelding is capable of running in the 160’s over hurdles which does mean he has to come here with a chance. He’s fragile but has been able to run 4 times this season (once fell at the first over fences). I think the important thing to realise with him is that in that Dublin chase race he was just a 4/1 shot with stable mates CHACUN POUR SOI & MIN the only two shorter than him. Handles any ground but I’ve long thought he might just excel in genuine good to soft. He faced that in the 2017 Supreme when 5th so course form a little niggle but he did go on straight after that race to beat MELON at Punchestown so we know the back class is there as is the current class. Can look a bit lazy in front and I wasn’t blown away with his Red Mills hurdle Trial but he’s entitled to improve from that and we know that Willie can ready one for a Champion Hurdle. HARDY EUSTACE too used the Red Mills Hurdle as his stepping stone to land this race in 2005
COEUR SUBLIME – An undoubtable issue with this horses wind to my eye as he’s often seen to plunge out of his races. They are obliged to be declared now but that’s not to say they always are but you’d like to see something to have been tweaked before the big one. Bolted up in the WKD hurdle this season and found only PENTLAND HILLS too good in the Triumph but given his inconsistency and the Grade he was won at, you’d think he has a bit too find at this stage of his career. JEZKI the last horse to do the WKD & Champion Hurdle double in 13/14
CORNERSTONE LAD – Has been a revelation this season and while he appears to enjoy the slow ground, he was running to a much lower level term in the same ground so he’s clearly turned a corner now. His Fighting Fifth win was marked down given the slow conditions and the injury to BUVEUR D’AIR. No doubt it hindered the former champ but how much is open to debate. After at Haydock he gave weight to the entire field and was beaten just under a length. Admittedly he has no Cheltenham experience, but he’s available at twice the price of the winner that day (gave him 6lbs), and ten times the price of the runner up (gave him 3lbs) so this 6yo is appears undervalued and he’s never been outside the first 3 in ALL his hurdle races although it’s clear he loves the mud
DARASSO – Looks a bit trip-less and on his last two runs you’d have to give him no chance in a Champion Hurdle. Lacks a look round the course too
DARVER STAR - The only Novice who will take up his entry here and his two Grade 1 efforts this season have come with the support of a Tongue Tie. He was 4l third behind ENVOI ALLEN before running HONEYSUCKLE to within half a length in the Irish Champion Hurdle. His winning form though leaves enough to be desired for me (last beat FAST BUCK by 1 and half lengths while getting 3lb, he’s rated 142)
FUSIL RAFFLES – Big drifter for the Christmas hurdle which was taken by his Stablemate EPATANTE who was very well backed herself. Appears to be quite ground dependant which is worth considering when you look back at his Wincanton seasonal debut. That run looked OK with the allowance for normal progression but now I wonder whether even the Good to Soft ground was right on the cusp of his limit. That’s a major worry here, as is the lack of a visit and recent run
GUMBALL – Not so good the last twice after starting this season well but exposed enough now to suggest this 6yo isn’t up to this
LE PATRIOTE – Has won at this course and sports first time blinkers but I’d expect connections will be happy with a clear round and to pick up some prizemoney
NOT SO SLEEPY – Well handicapped horse in the early part of the season while notching up two wins off marks in the 120’s. Exposed as not good enough in the Betfair Hurdle but that did come on quicker ground so probably wants ease underfoot but this is an impossible looking task
PENTLAND HILLS – Last years Triumph hurdle winner who stamped his authority on the division with a nice performance at Aintree. Hasn’t looked quite the same this season and KATCHIT in 2008 the only other horse to do the Triumph Champion Hurdle double. In fact, FAUGHEEN, ISTABRAQ & HARDY EUSTACE are the horses who won a Novice Hurdle the year prior to winning a Champion Hurdle so historically it’s not easy and like KATCHIT, they all came in here off the back of a win
PETIT MOUCHOIR – Winless since his Chasing debut back in October 2017 but had been third in the Champion Hurdle before that and notched up two Grade 1 wins prior to that. Running better this season but his performances in those two races at Leopardstown (which he won on the build up to his Champion Hurdle 3rd 2 years ago) wouldn’t be up there with his best career efforts. I can imagine he’ll be popular but he looks held to me for win purposes and there’s no guarantee how long the cheekpieces will help
SHARJAH – Chucks in an effort every now and then to suggest he’s a proper horse but unable to back it up in the main. Does look ground dependant and wants it to be on the better side which is a worry round here with the weather and he was disappointing on his last start
SILVER STREAK – Last years’ third when ridden for a place. Fortunate with the position really and the distance confirms he’s unlikely to have real Champion Hurdle winning aspirations but he’ll be ridden more forward this time round but has a bit to find with a few in here so place chance at best again
SUPASUNDAE – You’d have to go back some way to find the last 10yo winner of the Champion Hurdle which was SEA PIGEON in 1980 and HATTON’S GRACE in 1950 before that. He does have it have it all to do for win purposes, especially as he’s not the class of those horses mentioned but this is the right race for him, I feel they should have come here last year but he does look like maybe he wants a bit more than 2m but not quite 3m which is confirmed by his Coral Cup Festival win over 2m 5f. I think he holds a very strong place chance, especially with that Festival winning form, and he’ll have come on a bundle for that first run at the Dublin Racing Festival as he always does. Form figures at 2m over hurdles reads – 31782112224. His 7th came in the ALTIOR winning Supreme, his 8th and 4th were both on seasonal debut. He’s placed first or second in 15 of his 18 hurdle starts after a run
EPATANTE – I’m not quite convinced she a true 159 mare just yet although with her allowance I’d say she’s about that. No doubt how visually impressive she’s been in her two runs this season but the first effort was just a Handicap and those closest behind who have raced have done very little for the form. In fairness to that race though, the 8th and 9th have won since and I think she can be judged on her own merits. I don’t think she’s far off this level, but I’m just not sure she’s there yet and I’m also not prepared to just brush last years Cheltenham effort under the carpet. Without doubt this is her toughest test to date, it takes a very special mare to be involved in this race (Both ANNIE POWER & DAWN RUN were also sent off favourite but then so was APPLE’S JADE), she doesn’t have much experience but she’s clearly coming here with a chance
Summary – I’m still convinced that this race could be run a handful of times with a different winner of each but I do still cling onto the hope that we have a good one in here. With that in mind I’ll be crystal clear here that I’m of no real strong opinion but I’ll let you know my thoughts. Realistically you’d have to be looking younger blood if we’re due a star. Now historically we know how tough it is for the 5yo’s who ran at the Festival to come here and win so you could probably whittle it down to the 6yo’s for the first look. GUMBALL has very little chance but both CORNERSTONE LAD & EPATANTE have shown enough this season to suggest they could be provide the answer. Neither has course form to speak of but I’m not prepared to just let what EPATANTE did last season pass me by. She was backed liked defeat was out of the question so I’m dubious about their Flu Vaccine excuse. CORNERSTONE LAD doesn’t have the same sexy connections but despite having to give the mare 7lbs he’s rated the same. He gave weight to both PENTLAND & BALLYANDY when narrowly beaten at Haydock but the underlying blot for him appears to be that he’s improved for bad ground. I do still think he’s overpriced given what he’s achieved.
Now to give the 7yo’s their due I think CALL ME LORD was very good here in The International and am slightly surprised, but not disappointed, that Jacob chose FUSIL. He does have serious potential himself but CALL ME LORD was below his best at Sandown, a race which historically the better horses have underwhelmed. He’s another for me who looks a fair price. SUPASUNDAE would be the first 10yo in a long time to win this and while I think he’ll be there or thereabouts, I’m not sure he’s up to winning this. That’s said with the expectation of a new star emerging so if that doesn’t happen he’s plenty good enough to win. DARVER STAR has some steady enough form behind big names but doesn’t look to me as though he’ll be anywhere close at the finish while SHARJAH is another who just does nothing for me. Of the 5yo’s PENTLAND clearly has a chance given his Triumph win here, but he was disappointing on both runs this term and I can’t shake that. FUSIL RAFFLES has been touched on and I think he could be a serious horse for the future but his Kempton run was very strange given he drifted quite markedly and went out like a light. COEUR SUBLIME has appeared to have wind issues his whole career so the wind op and tongue tie look logical and he might just best of those younger runners
CILAOS EMERY is a notable supplementation and he’s certainly good enough to be involved. He’d be the horse at single prices I’d have preference for and I’m still adamant he would have won the Arkle last term had he arrived. He’s been able to get more racing into himself this year and he showed enough in the Red Mills to suggest he’s capable in this field. BALLYANDY is an admirable performer but is probably better these days on slower ground and they did try him over 3m earlier this season
Selection – SUPASUNDAE
Lively Outsider – CALL ME LORD & CORNERSTONE LAD
MARES HURDLE
BENIE DES DIEUX – Outstanding Mares who has unfinished business in this race. Jumps beautifully in the main so that fall last season was strange but these things happen. Proved her class since and she really will take a great deal of beating here but it looks a better renewal than last term with HONEYSUCKLE here and STORMY IRELAND in better form
CAP SOLEIL – Well beaten after a break and plenty to find in here
CROSSGALESFAMEGAME – Just 1 win from 4 hurdles starts and that won’t be doubled here
DESARAY GIRL – 3 from 4 over hurdles and chooses to come here in stead of the Mares’ Novice but that appears to be a trip thing more than a class one
ELFILE – Bit to find with STORMY IRELAND but not much and did win nicely the last day
HONEYSUCKLE – 3 times Grade 1 winner with two of those wins coming in Open Company this season. Has shaped as though she’d prefer further than 2m and her latest win in the Irish Champion Hurdle was her least impressive win this season and he jumping left a bit to be desired for a Champion Hurdler, but she dug deep and still won the race. That was also her first time left handed and she’s yet to race at Cheltenham but I wouldn’t be as worried now and she’s the threat to BENIE
LADY BUTTONS – She’s a decent mare but was quite a way behind last term in this race
POPONG – Another Henry De Bromhead runner who looks likeable but this is a big ask
ROKSANA – fortunate winner of this last year and hasn’t looked quite as good in her first two starts but was much more like it in the Relkeel when second to SUMMERVILLE BOY under a 6lb penalty. That form looks good now, she likes it here but she shouldn’t be up to beating BENIE unless mistakes are made again
STORMY IRELAND – Been much better this season and is only a 6yo so her best is yet to come. Has been shown up to now that she’s more of a Grade 2 Mare but going the right way and might be able to make the best of the rest and will be lurking if there’s any mishaps
Summary– Happy to keep this one short because BENIE DES DIEUX will dot up here. No doubt HONEYSUCKLE is well above average but her latest run was a bit less promising despite her showing a good attitude. STORMY IRELAND can run well again as will ROKSANA
Selection – BENIE DES DIEUX
Lively Outsider – STORMY IRELAND
NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
PRECIOUS CARGO – Interested me earlier in the season when entered in a Novice Handicap chase the first time at Newbury when he didn’t run. When he finally did run in that race type I think he got shown up to be crying out for a longer trip despite running on slow ground. Put up what I’d class as a solid effort in the Kingmaker against better 2 milers on better ground. This race looks right up his street and I give him a chance
HOLD THE NOTE – Needed his mark to go up on his last start to get into this race and I did think he’d blown it by nearly winning. 12lbs higher now means this won’t be easy but it’s a relatively compressed race. Likeable sort with the trainer owner route but well found in the market now
ESPOIR DE GUYE – Up 24lbs since his debut but looks as though he handles most ground although I think others might have a bit more up their sleeves
TORPILLO – Step up in trip is interesting but not sure it’s the answer to him and I worry his mark is about right now
KNIGHT IN DUBAI – bumped into a very smart type at Haydock and that might just have exposed his level but he’s 2 from 2 under Conor Shoemark and his form here might not read well but I think he handles it fine
JARVEYS PLATE – First time blinkers and down to a reasonable mark. Best runs have come on the New Course but this is probably the right race for him but I’m not sold on the headgear
CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY – I believe he was found lame after his last start which was a fair effort over a trip too short. Dropped 1lb for that too and although Nico jumps ship I give this lad a chance of being there or there abouts if he is recovered
IMPERIAL AURA – Hard not to be taken with his latest effort especially with the drift on the day. Raised 7lbs for that so although he looked to have a bit in hand I’m not sure how much he has now. Probably is the right favourite with all that said but does look a bit short now
CHAMPAGNE COURT – I like this horse and he was a steady enough hurdler including round here. Blew his mark after two good chase wins in Handicaps but was well beaten here in January on Trials Day in a first time tongue tie which remains on here. Possible held off his mark now, unless they weren’t giving it their best effort the last day
GALVIN – Solid enough 6th in the Ballymore here last year which could be enough to suggest his mark looks fair. He’s 0 from 3 over fences this season but has been ridden quietly the last twice. I think he’s been set up for this race but he did fall on his first start this season and made some bad mistakes over hurdles here last year but can only improve
PAINT THE DREAM – Yet to win over fences but had risen 13lbs this season. Hard to be confident about but has some fair form, including when 2nd here in the Dipper after CHAMP’S fall
HIGHEST SUN – I fancied him a bit for the Coral Cup last year but he was poor so while I think he’s a nice prospect I’m not sure we’ll see his best round here
MELLOW BEN – might just want better ground and looking exposed now
EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS – I like pieces of his form, including when falling favourite on his chasing bow. Entitled to come on for the experience and showed good attitude the last day plus he’s been kept back for this race. Chance, but he was a bit slow at the end of his bumper here in 2018
BEAKSTOWN – I thought this lad would be an RSA or JLT horse this year so despite a couple of laxck lustre efforts so far this season (including appearing not to see out his races) I think he would be impossible to ignore off this mark. Did pull up in the Ballymore but might have been minded although he might just not like it here, and potentially wants some nicer ground
MITCHOUKA – Second season Novice with just 1 win to his name over fences from 7 attempts but has looked a bit more like his old self on the two starts for his new yard. Wouldn’t scream out well handicapped and twice pulled up round here
DALY TIGER – Lightly race horse who won on his chase debut before disappointing a bit after. Much more like it on his run last month which will have put him spot on for this and down the bottoms of the weights I think he could go well and the trip is no issue for me
LORD SCHNITZEL – Not really sure I understand where this lads fan clubs has come from for this race but Ruby Walsh has led that brigade. Form doesn’t scream out well handicapped and will want rain
DE PLOTTING SHED – Sent off 11/2 for this race in 2018 off a 4lb higher mark when pulled up and failed to win after for Gordon Elliott. Twice won for new trainer Suzi Best, beat WHO DARES WINS on his last effort when giving away 5lbs and that horse is 147 rated. He looks overpriced IF he can handle this track
TRAINWRECK – Yet to win over fences from 7 starts but almost won on his last run when upped in trip for the first time. Ex point winner who might have just found the answer to break his duck
Summary – This is another very competitive handicap and the head of the market looks well deserved. That said, I think a few people will be on some of those early and I still think some value lurks out there at bigger prices. BEAKSTOWN is becoming frustrating and I’m not sure he really will enjoy Cheltenham after watching him this season but he must be better than his current mark. PRECIOUS CARGO looks to crying out for this trip and I think he has a genuine chance despite the lack of course form. Stablemate CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY could go well after a jog round the last day at the wrong trip but I also think TRAINWRECK could be in with a chance now they’ve stepped him up and seen improvement, although his price is getting a bit low now whereas DALY TIGER still has juice in his price and I think the trip could suit him too.
One at a wild price is DE PLOTTING SHED, who I’ve remarked on above. On these terms, and in his current form I think he looks grossly overpriced, but I do accept he pulled up in this race in 2018 and he is now a 10yo
Selection – PRECIOUS CARGO
Lively Outsiders – CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY & DE PLOTTING SHED
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
ANTEROS – 12yo who will have no issues with the trip, but in this class he will find it very tough
CAREFULLY SELECTED – Second in the 2018 Champion Bumper only beaten a nk. Never been outside the first three in all races under rules and unbeaten un his two points. Does lack that one standout line of top class form and jumping has looked cautious. To counter that; his last run was just to get him qualified. Didn’t even need to win which will have been part of the reason why he was ridden how he was. We’ve seen over and over how many horses will make mistakes when they’re eased into a flight with a long lead, much better to be ridden into them. That was only 2 weeks after his previous run so was close enough, but allowed more time between then and now to get him prepped and ready for the big day. Willie Mullins has (well Patrick) had this race mapped out for him for some time. I pitched him as a genuine Albert Bartlett type last year which he almost could have made if Willie had have declared him in January 2019 when the rain actually came. Good 3rd to MINELLA INDO at Punchestown after light season
CLONDAW CIAN – Well beaten in this race 12 months ago but did at least complete and didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs. Hasn’t been in any sort of form since but this trip and test will suit
FORZA MILAN – Derek O’Connor booking is a positive but enough to find with CAREFULLY SELECTED based on their last run despite appearing to be staying on and short enough price now
LAMANVER PIPPIN – Interesting now up in trip but overall form this term demands much more
LORD DU MESNIL – One of the higher rated runners here and the trip shouldn’t be a problem. Track might not be to suit as was well beaten here on new years day 2019 but if that can be ignored has a chance
NEWTIDE – Lightly raced and 2 from 2 since chasing but was gifted his latest win by a faller. No doubt there’s more to come though
OCEAN COVE – Stamina laden horse who will really thrive for this step up in trip and with Lisa O’Neill on board I think he’ll go well at a price
RAVENHILL – Always fancied by the yard but with the race cutting up he takes up this engagement after looking to be heading for the Kim Muir. Maybe this was always the plan and with Jamie Codd on board you know he’ll be trying his best but looks short enough for me now
REDZOR – Impressive winner on his chase debut but just found out in better company since. Trip could well suit if he can get into a rhythm but may want the ground to dry
SMOKING GUN – Bits of form this season to suggest he could play a role here but hard to forgive his last start
SOME CAN DANCE – Doesn’t come here in great form and plenty to find on figures
SPRINGFIELD FOX – Absolutely bolted up last month and his second start over fences but this does demand more and will be a more competitive race than he’s face to date
THE HOLLOW GINGE – Nice type but one who might not be suited by the demands of this test
Summary – I really do think it’s just a case of jump round and CAREFULLY SELECTED wins. In fact I’d make him one of my stronger fancies of the week. I’m not worried about his jumping and with the shape of this race changing quite a bit of late I think those in behind him are now well underpriced. If he were to come a cropper I’d be tempted to look much further afield for some value and give both OCEAN COVE & last years 4th CLONDAW CIAN outside chances to place
Selection – CAREFULLY SELECTED
Lively Outsiders – OCEAN COVE & CLONDAW CIAN
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