14:10 4-Y-O Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Class 2) 2m 11y
RUNNING D’OR – Ex French runner who has won twice over hurdles from 7 attempts so doesn’t lack in experience but would have to be well above average to defy this opening mark of 139
LANGER DAN – 6th in the Fred Winter off a 1lb lower mark so with normal progression he could be up to landing a pot this season, however I’d expect him to be vulnerable to something with a bit more wiggle room but he always runs his race
BLACKO – Pulled up when sent off joint favourite for the Fred Winter and really you’d have to just strike a line through that run as no real excuse came up after. He’s down 2lbs so on that note he’s got to be of interest
THE PINK’N – Ran behind BLACKO a couple of times last season yet faces him here off a 1lb inferior mark. Enough to worry me about his chance
THYME WHITE – Dropped 3lbs from him Fred Winter effort where he was a well held 12th but he’s another who I don’t think showed his best that day and although he may benefit from the run (runs without headgear too), I’d think he’s capable of a much higher mark this season
FRASER ISLAND – Has come down 6lbs in his last two runs from 135 to 129 which reflects how tricky it is to accurately rate these 4yos but interesting to see how SIR CANFORD runs Wednesday
GROUP STAGE – Closely matched with THYME WHITE on these figures and might just be under appreciated
GOA LIL – Connections took this race last year with TORPILLO. Another who ties in with THYME WHITE but not sure he’s up to this unless he’s improved over the summer
GOOBINATOR – Northern raider but hard to say he’s well treated on form although has had wind op and recent prep run for this on the flat
VORASHANN – Carries a 6lb penalty but still 8lbs well in so not hard to make a case for and bound to be popular
OLYMPIC HONOUR – 1lb out of the handicap but this horse is very interesting. He won back in December 2019 which was his last effort in this discipline and despite being keen that day he won well enough. Before this he was going well before unseating against LANGER DAN in a race where he was sent off favourite. Might just want better than soft ground, but if the forecast can be trusted the ground should be OK. Officially 17lbs lighter than when facing LANGER DAN as mentioned before so one to seriously consider, especially with the normal progression he should have made after 10 months off hurdling competitively
HASANKEY – Another northern raider who is 2lbs out the handicap and been well held in three handicaps this summer. Beat GOOBINATOR on soft getting 6lbs last season but that was back at this trip of 2m whereas his last three runs were over 2m4f twice and 3m respectively. They’ve reduced his mark well if nothing else and lively outsider I feel
MASKADA – A big-priced winner last December when beating PALLADIUM who gave her 7lbs that day and is now a 130’s horse. That line isn’t the only piece which could give you confidence as she ran here in the Grade 1 Finale after that and wasn’t disgraced. Bad ground seems to be key to her
Summary – Nice race to kick things off and often you’ll see one very well handicapped but that’s easier to know after the race. Given their age this field really are hard to get a handle on how well treated they are but OLYMPIC HONOUR will be a reasonable double figure price which is enough to make him of interest to me. THYME WHITE should be better this season than last and VORASHANN being 8lb well in probably should be the most likely winner. BLACKO can be forgiven his last run and given he was sent off favourite for the Fred Winter makes him of automatic interest but he’ll be priced accordingly
14:45 Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m 3f 100y
BORN IN BORRIS – The only runner shouldering the 6lb penalty but was a very impressive point winner before that hurdle win in March and over this sort of trip could prove quite useful
GENIAL HAWKSTONE – Ran OK in a couple of bumpers up to now but likely not up to this
KILMINGTON ROSE – Bumped into a very smart mare in her bumper and gave that runner a stone so to only be beaten 5 and a half lengths would read as arguably the best form for this race
MAC KAYLA – Keen sort who has shown some ability but maybe not enough to be involved here
OSCA LOCA – Dual point winner but another who shouldn’t be up to this
PARIS DIXIE – Picked up a bumper in February 2019 so taken time to get back on track so likely to need this run
VAIN GIRL – Hard to fancy on her point runs
WILD ROMANCE – Half sister to BOSS MAN FRED also with Dan Skelton but her point second isn’t the best form coming into this but they hit the ground running with BOSS MAN and they’ll know how to get the best from her
YORSEXYANDUKNOWIT – unraced 7yo would be hard to predict but ignored unless the market speaks
Summary – I’d whittle this down to three runners who are BORN IN BORRIS, KILMINGTON ROSE & WILD ROMANCE. The former looks a nice type and if she wasn’t carrying the penalty might be the one to take my fancy but KILMINGTON ROSE will enjoy this step up in trip and has solid form behind a well-regarded horse so gets the vote (price dependant for punting). WILD ROMANCE is interesting given connections did well with BOSS MAN FRED from the off
15:15 Persian War Novices' Hurdle (Class 1)(Grade 2) 2m 3f 100y
MCFABULOUS – highest rated runner who ended the season with two wins and promise that more is to come. Should be ready to go for this and is a course winner so you can see why he’s favourite but plenty short enough
COURTANDBOULD – Yard flying so while this is a step up in class could run well if the rain stays away and the ground has plenty of good about it
EVERGLOW – Really strong bumper form but looks to be a chaser in the making. This will tell us more but wouldn’t be a shock winner
GETAROUND – 139 rated runner who has won round here too. Likely to be ready to roll after a win last month but I’d be worried if he’s really up to this Grade
ONE FOR THE TEAM – Found best form over further but this race tends to suit staying types so realistically the main threat to the favourite but also well found in the market
PETRASTAR – 3 from 3 in this sphere but form is questionable
LEGENDS RYDE – Needs more to feature here but has some steady form in places to suggest that she can improve still
Summary – This race does look to be MCFABULOUS’ to lose but at the price I’ve been looking to take him on. The problem is there are a few that can have half chances made for them so it’s a race I’ll sit back and take note of for formlines going forward rather than any interest. EVERGLOW will be popular and could appeal in the W/O market (Currently 9/2 with hills)
15:50 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 11y Div I
AT LARGE – Well bred and certainly one to keep an eye on for the foreseeable
BEBRAVEFORGLORY – Fancied in his last run but underwhelmed so hard to predict better here
FLIC OU VOYOU – NK second to OFALLTHEGINJOINTS here last season and that form is strong enough to be the most likely winner especially off the back of a wind op. Problem is she often finds something to beat her but as a second season novice she is the one to beat
FOLKS ON THE HILL – Well beaten in a bumper but was a fair price as a store and should improve for an obstacle so interesting in a race lacking depth
GILWEN GRAYSON – Form from bumper and maiden hurdle suggest he’s not up to this
MAD BARRY – Impossible to fancy and well beaten in two runs
MASTER TEMPLAR – One of three for Olly Murphy but wouldn’t be for me
SEVERANCE – 90 rated on the flat and the type that could win these sorts of races so well on the shortlist given the line up here
FOLLOW THAT – Second for Olly Murphy but bang average rules form up to now
MINI CREST – Olly’s final runner and she’s got form to suggest she might be the best of the trio but not my idea of a major player in here
Summary – FLIC OU VOYOU will probably be a short priced favourite for this race and rightly so but I am cautious of how often the horse has found one too good in varying levels so might be a hard one to catch right. That said if theres a bit of juice in the price I’d be happy to take the punt. SEVERANCE would be the main other to note for me given how good he was on the flat and might be a fair price in a weak ish looking race
16:25 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 11y Div II
ALLENBY – Not great on his bumper debut but not knocked about and should win hurdle races
BRAVEMANSGAME – Big money purchase who underwhelmed in bumpers given that price tag but still retains plenty of interest and obstacles should see a marked improvement from him
GOUET DES BRUYERES – No Chance
KAPROYALE – Quietly ridden on hurdle debut last month which appeared to me as though they were expecting him to improve for the run. Doing just that makes him a player here
NUMBERS MAN – Nicely bred with links to SAMCRO so one to watch on debut and expect improvement
RAINBOW JAZZ – Held when unseating last time out and this is tougher
SOARING GLORY – No doubt he brings the best form to the table and really is the one to beat. Exciting
TO BE SURE – Relatively cheap pick up and should be winning races, but this looks tough for him
FIVETOTWELVE – Another Olly Murphy runner who should not be featuring
WORLD TRIP – Third Olly Murphy runner who is likely to better over further so will be suited if this turns into a real test
Summary – SOARING GLORY has really strong bumper form and will be a worthy favourite, but I’ve not yet given up on BRAVEMANSGAME. He might have his chance another day but I’ll be keeping a close eye on him for sure. KAPROYALE looks ready to roll for this and could go close while NUMBERS MAN is well enough bred to make his presence felt too.
16:55 Veterans Chase 2m 7f 131y
VIRGILIO – Last seen winning over fences back in the summer of 18 off a 2lb higher mark. Not been in great form hurdling since comeback but always been a chaser for this stable really although this would be some achievement to land this. Maybe one for another day
DOUBLE SHUFFLE – Has run well here in the past and despite a slipping handicap mark he’s capable of mixing it in this company for sure. Does not win often which is now becoming a concern but should go close
PRESENT MAN – Last won a Listed Chase off this mark in November 18 but not been seen much since. Goes well fresh and another who should be able to win races in this sphere
CROSSPARK – If the ground stays around Good to soft he can outrun his likely odds but 7lb higher than last winning mark
JOE FARRELL – 3rd in this race last year off the same mark when sent off favourite but this might not be as stamina laden a renewal so might be vulnerable to something else
PINGSHOU – Surely most of us agree this horse never reached his peak so the mark of 140 doesn’t look unmanageable for the start of a veterans career. Had a comeback run where he was seen over 2m so that had to be a warm up for this, and he had fallen the last twice prior. Should get this trip on this ground but the dryer the better
THEATRE GUIDE – Well beaten in this race last year and now just 4lbs lower but another year older. Hard to make a strong case for but has had the wind op, and Robbie Power rode him well at Sandown last January so possibilities of a better shower this time round
STRONG PURSUIT – Just 9 races under rules for this 10yo so he’s had his issues but he’s probably no a light enough mark to make his presence felt although very hard to be convinced he’s the same horse of old and won’t get an uncontested lead. Yard vibes at the moment are positive though
DON POLI – The back form of this horse means 132 is a laughable mark but his recent PTP exploits (namely when beating KILLER CROW) show him up to be possibly over rated. I think this will be experience for Tristan Durrell more than anything and as much as I’d love to see the old DON back I’m not sure he retains that level of ability anymore
SHANTOU VILLAGE – A horse I really like and I think he would have won the Kerry National last year if he’d not unseated. He’s down 8lbs off that mark now and I think he’ll get the race run to suit. Has had two spins over hurdles this summer and I fully expect him to go very close but he does have his best form on Good ground so keep an eye on the going
ON TOUR – Nk second in this race last year off a 1lb lower mark so has a chance on that alone. Visor didn’t work last time out but is back off now
HORATIO HORNBLOWER – Comes here in good form which can’t be said for plenty and despite his mark riding 10lbs last season he looked value for that when Unseating at Sandown in January. Not dismissed
WHAT A MOMENT – Last win came in 2017 and has only raced three times since but potentially needed last season so the fact he’s just turned 10, comes here off the back of a Wind Op and will relish the ground means he’s got to be a lively outsider
DANCING SHADOW – Bare form suggests that off this current mark he’s going to find this tough and would probably want further to show a best effort
Summary – This type of handicap will be full of horses we have plenty of knowledge of but it doesn’t make it too much easier to pick apart. I’m keen on SHANTOU VILLAGE though and I think there will be loads of pace up top which will suit him down to the ground. Speaking of ground, I would prefer it on the quick side of good to soft to be confident. WHAT A MOMENT could run well at a price if he’s ready to roll and I think last season was just a case of getting on course. THEATRE GUIDE may be getting on a bit now but he wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a big race
17:25 Novices' Chase (Class 3) 2m 7f 131y
ASK DILLON – I really like this horse and he ran an absolute blinder here in December when the ground was very testing. Yard flying and do well with this type when fresh so I think he’s a huge player
ENRILO – One of my horses to follow for the season who was babyish last term. The further they go the better but I’s give him a chance in here fresh providing he settles
MAHLERVOUS – Second Season Novice Chaser so has experience on his side but a bit to find on form
OFALLTHEGINJOINTS – Won on this card last season but didn’t really build on it after. Still retains potential but I’m not sure this trip will suit
RED RIVER – Bleeder which is a massive negative BUT he’s a proper horse and another second season Novice. Has been waited with and although hard to trust his wellbeing is more than capable at this level
THE CASHEL MAN – Best form came when running THYME HILL second in the Challow Hurdle. Ex flat horse who has probably reached his ceiling over hurdles so worth a pop in here but I’m not sure he’ll take to fences quickly as it took him long enough to win over hurdles
THE MIGHTY DON – The third second season Novice in here (technically third season Novice as unseated in 2018) but fell twice last season and none of those chase efforts would see him land this
Summary – Really exciting Novices’ chase here with ENRILO one of my horses to follow for the season. Of course it would be nice to get off to a winning start, and I think he could, but ASK DILLON is another horse I really like and given his course experience and yard form he could represent some value at opening show. RED RIVER is capable on his day but has had issues so hard to trust and OFALLTHEGINJOINTS of course won on this card last year and can mix it in this company
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