13:40 – Juvenile Hurdle – 2m 11y
BILLY THE SQUID – 5 hurdle runs under his belt but with an
OR of just 107 it would be a shocking renewal if he was the one to beat
BOURBALI – Second on very quick ground last month but from a
family of 5 who raced under rules and haven’t managed a single win between them
HECTOR DE SIVOLA – Ran a bit better than his losing margin
suggests on debut where he had significant trouble early on and was a bit
babyish. No doubt he’ll come on for that run but he might just need this too
and not sure he’ll be up to this level
HELL RED – Standout entrant who should relish this ground
and looked a very fast horse in his French race back in March. Will be short
but clearly the one they all have to try and get close to
JERSEY GREY – modest flat runner who has been well beaten in
each start
LUSTLEIGH – Better bred than most in here and one to watch
on debut in a weak enough looking race bar the fav
PHOENIX AQUILUS – sports a tongue tie which is a massive
turn off and maybe wants a bit slower ground to show his best
SANDYBURG – Wouldn’t scream out on breeding but his Dam won
a bumper on quick ground
THE IMPOSTER – Had a spin on the flat around here last month
but was a big price and well beaten
Summary – Boring as it is here from a punting perspective,
HELL RED should absolutely destroy this field and I’m struggling to see any
threats. At entry stage there were a few names who might have given him
something to think about but he deserves to be short odds on here and he’ll win
14:12 – Handicap Hurdle – 2m 11y
REMILUC – Huge run in the Betfair Hurdle and this horse is
an absolute warrior. 11yo now and tends to need the run first time up but some
boy and goes on anything
DEAR SIRE – Won earlier this summer and now 9lbs higher, but
useful claimer on board and the drier the ground the better
CHAMPAGNE CITY – Nice horse who hasn’t been seen to his best
for a while now so any confidence would have to be taken on trust. Tried fences
last season but now back hurdling he’s off an attractive mark and the ground
will suit but he’s not known for running well first time up
LE LIGERIEN – Goes on all ground but not a great record
fresh. Mark is 7 higher than when last winning a handicap and Richard Johnson
is 1/8 on him when wining at 2/11f but only a 7yo
THE RUSSIAN DOYEN – Hasn’t hurdled since early 2018 but 134
as a mark looks workable back at 2m so not without a chance
FAIR MOUNTAIN – Good ground merchant who has twice run good
seconds off this mark. Pulled up on his comeback run in first time cheekpieces
but usually flops after a break so with the headgear back off he’s got a chance
if the ground doesn’t have too much ease in it
DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO – 2 from 3 on good ground but handles a
bit of give underfoot. Has fallen the last twice and hasn’t really scaled the
heights expected of him. Down to 130 which is reality is just 9lbs lighter than
his opening hurdle mark earned almost 2 years ago and the closest he’s finished
to a rival since is 14l. Still an underlying feeling he can win a nice race, so
whether they want it to be this I’m not sure but interesting with Jnr up top
STIMULATING SONG – One win from 6 hurdle starts but not
shown me enough to suggest this mark is a winnable one but was fancied earlier
this month and showed enough to say he’ll be better for it and the ground
should be fine. Sam Twiston retains the ride and just a 5yo
GUNNERY – Lightly raced 7yo who needs a career best to win
off this mark, but if you can put a line through his run this summer where he
finished lame and ignore the penultimate effort where he had a short break
between runs then he might just be one of the more likely winners but clearly
not straight forward
RIVER BRAY – Comes here fresh from
a wind op and best form on this type of ground so the fact he’s running off
just a 2lb higher mark than when last seen means he deserves a second look
FRIEND OR FOE – Another fresh from wind surgery and his mark
of 125 is very likely to be under appreciating him. Not been seen for a while
so despite having a setback he’s likely to have improved in himself and if
there’s plenty of good in the ground then you can see why he’s the one they
have to beat. Course form too albeit when 1/25
Summary – Tidy looking race to be honest but too many in
with chances to have any confidence. CHAMPAGNE CITY doesn’t go so well fresh so
line through him, RIVER BRAY might just find one too good and GUNNERY is a
concern with Henderson this time of year. FAIR MOUNTAIN & FRIEND OR FOE,
both of who have likely had this race in mind for some time, might just be the
best of the field but GUNNERY could win by 10l or pull up, STIMULATING SONG can
run well and DITHEYLEAVEUOUTTO often draws a second look from me and with Jnr on
board it lures me. I’d be wanting to sit back and watch this race as I think
there will be plenty of winners from this race going forward
14:47 – Handicap Chase – 2m 7f 131y
BALLYOPTIC – So impressive in this race last year and he’s
won the Silver Trophy at the track too so it’s clearly one of his favourites.
Career high mark now of 163 (achieved 162 over hurdles in 2017) so of course
this is a big ask and I think on this better ground it might not be quite the
stamina test he needs but he’ll be there or there abouts
BRAVE EAGLE – Likes good ground and was third in this in
2018 but off a 12lb lower mark
SECRET INVESTOR – No problems fresh, ground will be fine for
him and won here on his only start at the track. Has had a wind op this summer
but does need a career best effort of this mark. Chance of doing just that
though with everything in his favour
BOLDMERE – up 22lbs since Last December for two handicap
chase wins. Fell in the Grade 2 Towton at Wetherby when looking like the winner
so while this is the toughest assignment yet I’m not sure he’s stopped
improving but his mark looks about fair now although has Richard Johnson on top
STEELY ADDITION – Has won here like many others and goes on
any ground but I think he’ll need this run and his mark still might need to
drop a bit
POTTERMAN – Comes here off the back of three summer spins
and won last time out. Any ease in the ground would hamper his chances but if
it’s good ground he’s got a squeak
CAPTAIN CHAOS – Underwhelmed in this race last year off a
7lb lower mark and really wants a stiffer test in ground and trip
SOME CHAOS – Last seen over fences in the Ladbroke trophy
but hasn’t shown me enough to suggest he can defy this mark unless the ground
was good all over
DJANGO DJANGO – Has won here over hurdles and acts on any
ground but another who needs a career best effort
SEDDON – Has won a bumper on soft but wants good to soft at
worst however I think this is quite a smart entry. As he’s slap bang on bottom
weight and shapes as though he might just get this trip. Now there are some
much stronger stayers in the field but off this featherweight, if he’s going to
get the trip it will be now and he might just enjoy a steadier gallop
Summary – This race looks open to a good number of horses
but I think SEDDON might just be a big enough price to lure me in. He gets
loads of weight and I wouldn’t want to pick between BALLYOPTIC, BOLDMERE or
SECRET INVESTOR who will all be vying for favouritism and all should be close a
the finish
15:22 – Novices’ Chase – 2m 3f 98y
FIDDLERONTHEROOF – Strong form with his second behind THYME
HILL in the Pesian War but looked to me to be a horse who needs to get his toe
in so I’m not sure this ground will suit. Fences will see a significant
improvement in him though I just wonder whether this is really his trip and
ground so would want to watch him here with a view to having him onside in the
future
FUSIL RAFFLES – I’ve no doubt he’ll end up the best of these
over fences, but I’m also aware that he might want this better ground. So he’s
got it here, no excuses and I think the step up in trip is going to bring about
further improvement. The one to beat but will be priced accordingly
GRAND SANCY – Lost his Novice status in February so I think
they would have like to try him at Aintree. With that in mind I suspect they’ll
have thought about this race as an opportunity to get a nice win out before he
faces open company so I do think he’ll be ready and raring to go. Might be a
percentage call at the prices and he’ll handle this ground plus he won here
first time up in 2018
LONGHOUSE SALE – Really does want good ground. No doubting
he’s been impressive this term so if he does run (ground dependant) then he’ll
be there for a long way
PAINT THE DREAM – Second Season Novice Chaser who was
probably flattered in the Dipper coming second after CHAMP fell which is the
reason for his OR being so high. Couldn’t have him in this at all regardless of
how well the yard are going
Summary – I probably won’t play in this race because I think
FUSIL should win but he’s got no juice about his price. FIDDLER is capable but
I think he’ll be one for another day while GRAND SANCY screams out to me that
on this occasion he might be the one to beat. I’m sure he’ll be ready, he’s got
good graded experience behind him over fences so at the prices I’m very tempted
but holding off for now
15:57 – Handicap Hurdle – 2m 3f 100y
SAINT SONNET – Harry Cobdens choice and just the two starts
for Nicholls both of which came over fences last spring. Has the potential to
have improved plenty and the better ground I think will suit
SIR PSYCHO – Bryan Carver has won on him but we’ve seen
before this horse is highly strung. Mark now looks high enough but that
warrants him being thrown into this kind of race and I think he’s going to
enjoy this longer trip if he can settle
KALONDRA – Hasn’t hurdled since 2017 but does like quick
ground
DOUBLY CLEVER – back to back wins at Newton Abbot but up
13lbs for those
LIGHTLY SQUEEZE – Not sure this would be first choice this
weekend and mark looked too high now
FLASH THE STEEL – Won this race last year on very different
ground but arguable will prefer this faster surface. Trainer said this was the
aim and although 8lbs higher should run well
FIX SUN – Had a wind op after 1/6f defeat in a first time
tongue tie. Could be off a light mark but those breathing issues are cause for
concern
MARIO DE PAIL – 100/1 poke in the supreme last year. Seems
to want slower ground and not obviously well treated
NOTRE PARI – Sure to be sent over fences following this but
I think he can run well off this mark before doing so
DINO VELVET – 4 handicap runs around this mark all on good
ground but enough to suggest he’s held for win purposes
TEA CLIPPER – I quite like this horse and wasn’t beaten far
on his second handicap start. This is another level of test but I’m keen to see
him progress this season and can’t wait until he jumps a fence
KHAGE – First run for new yard but all runs last spring came
on slower ground that he would have liked. Mark of 133 looks about right
COTSWOLD WAY – Another not obviously well handicapped so
ignored
HOMETOWN BOY – Well beaten at the end of the season but that
was in defeat to a smart horse so not all hope is lost but might take some time
before he wins off this mark
FLINCK – Beaten favourite on his last start in February but
it was on slow enough ground. Mark looks workable to me and I think he’s got a
big run in him
BEAUFORT WEST – Two wins after a wind op and he’s a horse I
know they think is better than he’d shown prior to that. Maybe wants more give
underfoot but an interesting runner
CASWELL BAY – Twice beaten here in the past but bumped into
one last term. 128 looks a high enough mark though
PUSH THE TEMPO – Hasn’t won for two years but his current
mark looks to be manageable and ground should suit
Summary – Big field handicap but there will be plenty of
future winners in this field. As for this race itself I do like the chance of
FLINCK and he’s the one I’d put up as my main hope. FIX SUN can run well as can
TEA CLIPPER. NOTRE PARI might be better when sent chasing and last years winner
FLASH THE STEEL can certainly cope with the 8lb higher mark on better ground
than last year
16:32 – Handicap Chase – 2m 3f 98y
CRIEVEHILL – Big ask to win off this high a mark but not
impossible
CASABLANCA MIX – Will enjoy these conditions but this is her
toughest assignment for some time
MARRCUDJA – Beaten twice in this race off 10lb and 11lb
lower marks so hard to fancy
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES – Goes well fresh, ground will be fine and
has won here before so lots to like and this mark is workable
RIVER WYLDE – Last ran off this mark in November 18 but
suffered a serious injury when falling but had the race sewn up. Capable off
this number now but long layoff to overcome. Still a horse I really rate so for
me could be overpriced but will just be nice to see him back
MONT DES AVALOIRS – 3rd
season Novice Chaser so it’s quite telling they’ve targeted this race. Wouldn’t
be for me at the price he is and I’d be more interested in him back in Novice
company
GARDE LE VICTOIRE – Ground no issue and mark manageable for
this old boy but may just need his comeback run now
AZZURI – Hard to fancy in this company and think his mark
needs to come down a bit
THE UNIT – Unraced for almost two years but his mark is just
down 4lbs. Fairly consistent on his day but entitled to need this although the
ground could well suit
THE BAY BIRCH – Won this last year on soft ground off an 8lb
higher mark. Good chance based on that alone
PUNCHES CROSS – First run for new yard but mark could be
underestimating him. No headgear for this race so maybe something further down
the line is planned and usually needs a run
DOITFORTHEVILLAGE – Mark coming down but ran poorly off an
even lower number of hurdles last season so hard to think he’ll be coming here
in any sort of form
PINK EYED PEDRO – Ran a corker the last day but this is more
competitive and ground needs to be quick for him
Summary – This looks a pretty open affair but
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES looks to have leading claims. THE BAY BIRCH, winner of this 12
months ago, looks to have been plotted nicely while it’s great to see RIVER
WYLDE back on course. THE UNIT also comes back from a long layoff but equally
looks to have an outside chance if in any sort of form
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