13:55
CAMPROND
Decent winner of the Persian War at Chepstow and despite that looking a weak renewal, he put some distance between himself and the others so in the scheme of this race, he setsthe standard
MARS HARPER
One of two for Elliott and Pioneer Racing with Davy booked. First win came this summer on gd ground and won the last day over just shy of today’s trip. Not too sure he’s the better of the two syndicate horses
OFF YOUR ROCCO
Ran on the 10th of October so this comes quick enough. Genuinely looks and very smart prospect for these middle trips
BANNIXTOWN BOY
Highest RPR under rules is just 102 and has run mostly on soft ground. Social runner
ALL CLENCHED UP
Probably another social runner, OR of just 109 and the step up on her penultimate run did exactly show her in the best light
Summary
This is a match between CAMPROND & OFF YOUR ROCCO, with that said, I’m curious to the fact Elliott has left both Pioneer horses in against each other. Jack has no other rides whereas Davy has three on the card, that would suggest to me that maybe we won’t actually see ROCCO, so it may prove fruitful to back CAMPROND when the market opens up to benefit from the Rule 4 rather than in the revised marketwhere he’ll be long odds on
14:30
FIDELIO VALLIS
Shoulders an 8lb penalty which on OR’s makes things quite close between a few. Has lots of experience though and ran well at Chepstow really behind a good horse in TEA CLIPPER especially as his best form has come over a bit shorter than that trip at Chepstow
SIR TIVO
Huge step up in class here and concedes weight to the field bar one. Hard to fancy
ANY NEWS
Ran a nice chase debut last month when only narrowly beaten in a Handicap. Has form at this track from December last season over hurdles but that was on the new course. Entitled to come on for that debut s in the mix, but may just find one too good
BUDDY RICH
0/3 over fences so far but behind some nice types in BLEU BERRY, DANCING ON MY OWN & CAPE GENTLEMAN. Only reached 121 over hurdles in Ireland and already a 130’s chaser, this 8yo is lightly raced but shouldn’t be the best horse in this field
THIRD TIME LUCKI
Death, taxes and Dan Skelton’s Novice Chasers jumping like bucks on their debuts. This horse ran 7 times last season in just 6 months so it’s not surprising he was over the top come the spring in my opinion. They’ve obviously given him a break, and a wind op, so really this is probably the time to catch him and we know he handles both courses here too. Exciting one for the first few months of the season I think
Summary
I’d be fairly confident that THIRD TIME LUCKI will be capable of jumping soundly on debut so despite that level of risk, and the yard being quiet, he’s the one I want to side with here. FIDELIO VALLIS has the experience and will be suited by the drop back in trip, but does have to give the selection 8lbs which I think will make the difference. ANY NEWS can run well but I’m keen to take on Irish Raider BUDDY RICH despite his match fitness
15:05
BARDENSTOWN LAD
Trainer John McConnell took this race last year with STREETS OF DOYEN for the same connections. He’d also already won over the trip and this horse looks a similar mould,in that he stays very well. One for the short list for sure
CADAGOGO
Elliott and Pioneer racing team up again here with this horse looking for his 4th win in a row. Spring a bit of a surprise the last day when stepping up in trip and back on home soil but I wonder if he’s vulnerable on this track with some strong stayers in the field
DRUMLEE WATER
Worth a try in here after handicap success at Perth off a mark of 125 over the 3m trip. H’s 4/5 since wind surgery this summer but this a big step up in class and wouldn’t be my idea of the winner
ONAGATHERINGSTORM
Finished second between two nice horses at Uttoxeter back in March and staying races will surely suit, but the last run came in a three horse race, so regardless of how easy he won, he beat a 106 rated horse home but has the benefit of being a second season novice
DRAGON BONES
Like quick ground and has only been beaten once when completing to date so clearly has ability and the desire to win. Not convinced he’s up to this, but could be proved wrong
ALMAZHER GARDE
0/4 as a hurdler and his last run in that sphere came as a 4yo behind GLORY AND FORTUNE in October 19 and we know that horse has just won the Welsh Champion hurdle off a mark in the 130’s. This horse is rated 139 over fences but was well held here at the festival off 135, so again I don’t he’s classy enough to win this, but hopefully can run well after a below par ending to the last season
GRACE A VOUS ENKI
Beaten favourite earlier this month on debut for the yard but only narrowly and it was by a confirmed high 120’s horse if not just a 130 horse. So with usual progression this horse should comfortably achieve the 130’s in staying hurdles, although I’d argue he may want a bit more time before he wants this kind of test, despite the ground and receiving weight helping with that
SIRUH DU LAC
David Pipe landed this race for connections in 2019 with RAMSES DE TEILEE and this looks a similar situation to me. This horse hasn’t raced over hurdles since he was a Juvenile and that dates back to early 2017. Has had issues since winning the Brown Advisory in 2019 and has changed yards, so it’s not quite the same approach as RAMSES. But we know he’s a mid 140’s horses which would in receipt of weight from most of the field means he’s on paper the one to beat. The issues he’s had though make him a tentative selection and of the remainder of the field I’d say BARDENSTOWN LAD would interest me most
15:40
FAIVOIR
Best form over hurdles came when stepping up in trip at the back end of last season so his debut performance over fences back at 2m at the beginning of this month can probably be upgraded. This said, the yard isn’t exactly firing right now, and I’m no totally convinced his mark of 144 is as generous as some others in here but a nice prospect all the same
BACK ON THE LASH
Has 3 wins from 4 chase starts this season but all of those came over further. Has won at this track albeit on the new course, and over hurdles he was well beaten in a handicap in 2019 off just 125
ANNUAL INVICTUS
Second to FAIVIOR on his chasing debut but only by 2 and a half lengths and gets an 8lb pull now. Good 4th in the Betfair Hurdle off 135 and that race is working out well
DANNY KIRWAN
Has never really shown what he’s made of following the hype surrounding him after his point and he is an 8yo going on 9 now. He beat TIME FLIES BY at Ascot which at the time looked strong form but doesn’t read so well now. He’s a half brother to APPRECIATE IT, although that’s where the resemblance ends. Sure he’ll win a race this season over fences, just don’t think it’ll be this
TORN AND FRAYED
Behind FAIVOIR here back in April while getting 4lbs, but was comfortably handled so not sure he’s going to be able to reverse that form
Summary
I think the key line of form in this race comes from FAIVOIR & ANNUAL INVICTUS who faced off on their chasing debuts earlier this month. The 8lb swing in favour of ANNUAL INVICTUS sways things in his favour for me, but this is the sort of race where price would make an influence on how I’d bet. I’d hope we’d get a bigger price for INVICTUS than FAIVOIR, if it was the other way round, I’m not entirely convinced I’d want to take him on as INVICTUS wasn’t the greatest jumper of a hurdler
16:15
GUARD YOUR DREAMS
6th in the Betfair Hurdle (form ties with ANNUAL INVICTUS) then a respectable 7th in the Coral Cu before another good effort when 3rd behind MY DROGO. Up 5lbs since then and doesn't scream out to me to be lightly treated, but progressive and this looks his trip
SAINT SONNET
9lb swing with GUARD YOUR DREAMS on their Coral Cup run and there was only 6 lengths between them. Beaten after in a weaker handicap off a 3lb lower mark (than the coral cup) but sported first time cheekpieces that day which they've persisted with here
COOLE CODY
10yo with plenty of experience round here but reverts back hurdles for the first time for Evan Williams. I think that's smart as his mark of 135 looks doable still at this age, he handles most ground and last won over hurdles off 136 at the November meeting in 2017. Not sure the Jockey booking inspires confidence but still has his chance
CLEMENCIA
5th in the 2020 boodles on debut for this yard off a 6lb higher mark but has been in no real form since. Stepping up in trip should suit, and he didn't have many runs last season so just maybe open to further improvement as he is only 5
DAL HORRISGLE
Alan King is in great form right now and this lad is 2lbs lower than his last run when sent off 11/4 in a similar race last month. Had won this summer and has his wind done before that last start so could possibly forgive that poor run and may be capable of more than he's shown, but does need to take a step forward and ground may be key to him
CAPTAIN MORGS
I remember a time when he was reported as being quite a machine and he's been sent off short off in 5 or his 6 starts. His second run came at Ascot where he beat ANNUAL INVICTUS off levels and there's 10 between that pair now so I'm happy to say he's much better than this current mark. Was travelling well enough when falling at the back end of last season which came against a 129 rated horse who I think he had well covered
SOMETIMES ALWAYS
6yo who strung three wins together last season starting in a handicap off 121, then a novice hurdle then a jumpers bumper. Beaten comfortably after but that was in better races so a chance now back in class and off this mark of 124
ART APPROVAL
Landed a Handicap in April on GF ground, and that was Exeter so it will have been like concrete. In fairness he won on Heavy before that so looks versatile and was beaten about 5 lengths at this meeting by FAIVOIR last year who is now rated 140, so 121 looks manageable, especially with another summer under his belt and this trip looks like once he's been crying out for and of course has that experience from round here last season
FOUND ON
This mare won in her own sex last month and is up 7lbs form that. Was 40/1 in that Maiden Hurdle mentioned before when falling behind FAIVOIR & ART APPROVAL so off the same mark the latter makes much more appeal
FITZROY
Has left Olly Murphy now and this will be his first run for new yard. Has scope off this mark but has been poor the last twice he's been seen and those runs came just a couple of months ago
MULLAGHMORE WAVE
Irish mare who is rated 116 here and was last seen winning against her own sex off 98 at Downpatrick over 2m 6f. Doesn't look likely to me, but the trainer knows how to win here
CALVINIST
Won two handicap hurdles this summer starting from a mark of 104. Probably held now and this is a much better race than he faced in his last few runs
Summary
Happy to whittle this race down to just two runners who are CAPTAIN MORGS & ART APPROVAL. The former doesn't look straightforward but clearly has a huge engine and the latter may have just been set up for a crack at this race from a long time out. The step in trip will certainly suit him so takes slight preference but I'll be dutching the pair
16:50
REDFORD ROAD
0 from 4 over fences but I think plenty expect there is still more to come from this horse. He's won at Cheltenham, albeit on the new course but you'd be taking a leap of faith to trust he's back to form and capable of chasing now
BOUGHTBEFORELUNCH
2nd in this race last year off a 6lb lower mark but arguably the ground may have been a bit slow for him last year so that maybe balances out the rise
BALLYEGAN HERO
10yo who is just 2 from 24 over fences but has bits of form to make him interesting although he's quite an in and out performer
MARQUIS OF CARABAS
11yo making his debut for Fergal O'Brien and is just 1 from 18 over fences and 2 from 30 under rules. Not for me
BERMEO
Last years winner off a 13lb lower mark, first run for new yard and all that said is enough to put me off him
PETITE POWER
12yo who left Fergal but now returns. Won this in 2019 off a 2lb lower mark but surely vulnerable to a younger horse
FIRST CLASS RETURN
Two wins over fences last spring saw him climb 16lbs in the handicap but was sent off 8/11 off this mark on his last start with excuses for the defeat so there's no doubt they think he can win off this number
SUPER CITIZEN
Irish raider run off 9lbs higher than his Irish mark and just one win from 13 chase starts under rules
DEBDEN BANK
Two wins this summer which followed a nice win in first time cheek pieces last December. Has had a wind op since those summer runs and relatively unexposed but not sure 116 is a doable number
ELAN DE BALME
Wants this kind of test and has had wind surgery although that didn't help before. is 2 from 13 over fences although the wins came in France but one I'm keen to keep an eye on and that I expect to be staying on strongly at the finish
JEAN GENIE
Ran a stormer at a big price earlier this month at Chepstow as clipped heels early on. Looks in need of this extended 3m trip so plenty to like despite this 5yo being yet to get his head in front
CARNET DE STAGE
Another Irish Raider this time one who is 10lbs higher than his native rating. Was impressive at Downpatrick and that was stepping up in trip for the first time so likeable claims
LEN BRENNAN
yet to win from 7 starts over fences but comes here off the back of what appeared to be a prep run over hurdles in the summer where he ran OK. Jockey is 3 from 7 over fences this season and there is absolutely no doubt he's better than this mark. To pick one line of form to suggest that would be his Novice Chase run behind OK CORRAL & IMPULSIVE STAR. Where he was only 2 lengths from winning and that was over 3m 1 1/2f in 2018 as a 5yo
DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT
Narrowly beaten in a similar event at Haydock last April off a 4lb lower mark means he needs a second look. Had a spin over fences earlier this month which I think will have been to bring about fitness. He's 2 from 6 over fences so boasts a far better strike rate than most of these and has more to come at this trip
FACT OF THE MATTER
Down to a very low mark now of just 111 and has some really good course form. 11yo now but has been kept busy this summer so comes here in good fitness and all the while they've been bringing that mark down. Has to be there or there abouts surely?
STRICTLYADANER
Career high mark for win purposes now and well behind JEAN GENIE earlier this month. Also runs well fresh so no excuse for me last time out
FURIUS DE CIERGUES
Another handicap climber in 2021 and this mark just looks too high at the moment but comes off the back of a nice prep run and only 6
MADERA MIST
Only win came here on the new course last December but it was over 2m 4 1/2f and a 9lb lower mark
Summary
This race looks an absolute minefield so don't take my advice to seriously or let me put you off your fancies. I probably won't play in this race but will need it for the final leg of the pools and I'd be looking for cover. FACT OF THE MATTER cannot be ignored here and off this lowly mark of 111 so he's on the slip and DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT has more to come and a good record up to now so is included despite lacking experience. FIRST CLASS RETURN & JEAN GENIE also make my shortlist but so do CARNET DE STAGE & LEN BRENNAN, the latter mostly on account of the Jockeys form this year. Hope that helps :D
17:25
ADJOURNMENT
Runner up twice in modest point events, yard not amongst the winners
BALLYBREEZE
‘invincible when fell 2 out’ in his point but has run in a hood in his rules debut and well beat last month on hurdle bow
BRORSON
Ran in the same hurdle race as BALLYBREEZE and was clear of that runner, but may not be up to this
CARDANO
Peaked at 100 on the flat and wont be lacking for race fitness or have any complaints if the ground is on the quick side
CIRQUE ROYAL
96 rated on the flat 2 years ago. Had two spins after long break but form of those race doesn’t look strong
GO DANTE
Nicely bred and Olly Murphy has had success with his sister. Was a nice winner of a Wincanton bumper back in March but the race lacked depth so hard to get a handle on how good he is, but has potential
JETOILE
Was a long way behind THE BIG BREAKWAY in his first point and has failed to win in 3 more attempts
LEBOWSKI
Has changed yards twice since 2020 and makes stable debut here after failing to win from 4 bumpers
MISTER WATSON
7yo who has run 2nd twice from 5 hurdles starts but would need a step forward even though this race looks weak enough
MR JORROCKS
Trainer Bred and managed a win with the Dam but hard to think she’ll be anything special
STRATTON OAKMONT
Peaked at 108 RPR on penultimate bumper. Should make a jumper and will want a trip in time
TOP BANDIT
Irish Raider who wasn’t beaten far earlier this month. Took plenty of time to win his bumper but this may be an easier task than back home so a chance
WILD SHOT
115 Rated Irish hurdler who shapes like he might further but I think just lacks a gear
JOHN LOCKE
I’m very excited to see this horse run. It’s only the 1lb he receives as a 4yo so it’s barely worth mentioning, but he was tried in a G2 and G1 respectively last season and although well beaten (21 & 26) that was in the Adonis behind TRITONIC and at Aintree behind MONMIRAL, arguably the two best British juvenile performances of the season. Bled at Aintree, so probably better than that result too, although it’s never good to try and trust a bleeder
Summary
Pretty weak finale but JOHN LOCKE I’d say is going to be the best of this bunch without doubt so I’d fully expect a bold show, and there’s no other horse I’d want to be on although not a race for heavy investment and it’s worth watching the market
Good luck!
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