CARRY ON THE MAGIC
7yo who has been tried in two hurdles under rules, both of which were very disappointing. Point form behind KILLER CLOWN (who himself is 0-3 over hurdles) read ok with that runner now 140 over the bigger obstacles. Yard will want to win this race but I’m not sure they’ll do it with this lad and the drop to the minimum trip is a curious move following a wind op
EARTH BUSINESS
Tizzards only runner in this race and a horse who has races on all types of ground though his three starts. Yet to win any, but does come here as a second season novice. Well beaten on his last start by a now 128 rated horse so this wouldn’t be the strongest form if he were to win this
FLASH KLASS
Has raced under rules in a Hunter Chaser back in March where falling. The minimum trip and smaller obstacles don’t scream out to be what he’s looking for and his first maiden point he was well behind POWER OF PAUSE, who himself hasn’t lived up to expectations and is around the mid 130’s at the moment
KNAPPERS HILL
Twice a winner in class 1 bumpers last season and both times under Megan Nicholls. Has a real touch of class about him and should be much too good for this field. Also won here on bumper debut on good ground so no issues with track, trip or going
LET’S HAVE ANOTHER
Not really sure his bumper run back in May is up to much, but interesting that Harry Redknapp has taken part ownership in this horse. Was fancied on that first bumper run by the yard, but you’d be taking a complete leap of faith (or something stronger) if you think he’ll be better than KNAPPERS HILL based on that run
MEXICAN BOY
Another for Olly Murphy who was twice sent off favourite in his bumpers last spring. Well beaten really in both and breeding would suggest this horse could be a bit of a plodder
SUPASUNRISE
No form to go by for this lad but has plenty of siblings, none of which are anything to write home about. Probably will at least like the ground if it heads to the quicker side
THE PLIMSOLL LINE
Ran with promise on bumper debut behind another of Paul Nicholls bumper winners but was disappointing after. Maybe the better ground will help, but doesn’t look up to beating KNAPPERS HILL
TRUCKIN WITH PADDY
This lad wants a trip and his point form is not exactly exciting. One line when well beaten by the late HERE COMES JOHNNY may have offered a glimmer of promise, but he shouldn’t be up to this standard
WELSBY
9yo ex Trevor Hemmings horse formerly trained by Nicky Henderson who looks like a nice prospect when winning his bumper but that was back in November 2017. You’d have to assume that leaving those connections means he’s never going to fulfil his potential but he’s at least go something about him to suggest he could have been above average
PIKAR
Unraced runner for the Skeltons who gets his 4yo allowance here but not sure it’s worth the 1lb. Breeding doesn’t scream out of the page with the only sibling tackling obstacles and is 0-10
Summary – KNAPPERS HILL will absolutely bolt up bar incident
13:35
ASK DILLON
Second season Novice Chaser although it was just the one try over fences last term before reverting back to hurdles. He’s a horse I’ve always liked and wished they’d run him in the Albert Bartlett back in 2019 but hey ho. He’s over 3m here, the fall last season on his only chase start is a slight worry, but he likes it here and I think he handles any ground. He’s a solid mid 140’s marker
DOES HE KNOW
Really went off piste when running out in the Challow then disappointing I a handicap after in a first time hood. Smaller field not guaranteed to suit him but maybe jumping with help him concentrate
HONEST VIC
This ground will be a huge help to him and he was very progressive last season but 150 as an OR may be pushing it slightly. Just the one run here previously where he tailed off, but won has Cheltenham’s October meeting after a break on good ground so I’ve no major worries about the track
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
Promises to be an exciting chasing recruit, although Paul Nicholls mentioned the other night that he doesn’t jump fences that well, he doesn’t bend his back, so he’ll progress with each start. Has won here though and looks a decent prospect, but I reckon he’ll end the season with some form of headgear
Summary - you wouldn’t be surprised if any of these won here but this really is a Novice chase with just one prior start in the entire field, which resulted in a fall. I think ASK DILLON will run a big race, but I also think a lot depends on how well THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE jumps. DOES HE KNOW is going to improve for fences so could easily land this too
14:10
VIEUX LION ROUGE
Owners sponsors the race and won this back in 2019 off a 6lb lower mark. That was a proper ride that day and while he’s going to be ready for a bold show here, he’s vulnerable to the younger veterans I fear
POTTERS CORNER
Welsh National winner in 2019 off todays’ mark but Tudor can only claim 3 not 7 like before. This might just not be enough of a test for him and you wonder if the Welsh National again is the main aim this season
DOUBLE SHUFFLE
Disappointing in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark when beaten 40l but has wo since. Maybe needs his first run these days but I expect him to be closer than 12 months ago
SIR IVAN
Can run well off a break and the ground will suit him maybe more than others but has been running well in this class so has a chance
SOME CHAOS
Runs off the back of a wind op and off the same mark as when 3rd at this meeting last season. The quicker the ground the better his chance and now in Veteran company he should be worth a few lbs more than his rating
GEORDIE DES CHAMPS
Has form round here with a win to his name and another taken away after the race. Not sure he does a lot in front but two wins this summer over hurdles and this mark of 130 over fences probably under estimates him. I think he’s a proper chance now stepping into older company
SOUPY SOUPS
Another just eligible for Veterans races and he’s now 7lbs lower than his last winning mark. No luck the last day when Sam was on board and badly hampered so I think he could be the type to run well in here and the ground should suit (ran poor here on soft and ground was used as the excuse)
VIVAS
Doesn’t win often but mark of 125 is a winnable won. Track should provide enough of a test even if he might want a bit further ideally but makes plenty of mistakes
ASOCKSTAR
13yo now and really wants quick ground I think. Other probably on more workable marks than his
INDY FIVE
Last win came over fences in a Novice Handicap off a 2lb higher mark. Maybe wants a bit more of a test of stamina but back with David Dennis now but has often seemed to need that first run off a long break
DANCING SHADOW
Beaten a shd in his race last year off a 1lb lower mark so that alone gives him every chance as he creeps in bang on 10 stone. Definitely has a race in him off this number
Summary – A few here you can make a case for and plenty you can expect to run well but I think that GEORDIE DES CHAMPS would be the one I’d side with despite not being the most straightforward. I think DANCING SHADOW has every reason to be bang there again so he’s the most significant danger I think
14:45
CAMPROND
Has had a busing enough last twelve months but I think he needs genuine good ground, so might as well take his chance on the forecast ground. Probably susceptible to something classier though
COEUR SEREIN
7yo who’s won his last three starts and now up from 113 to 136. Not sure stepping back to this trip is ideal though and I don’t think he should be up to this
LUTTRELL LAD
Nice enough bumper form with a steady run at Aintree last spring and won his maiden last month as you’d expect for a 1/4 poke. This is probably quite a bit ask for a genuine novice hurdler but should enjoy the tempo and the trip should suit too
TILE TAPPER
Second season Novice hurdler officially rated 125. Maybe wants slower ground but he’s bumper win at Exeter looked good that day although the form isn’t up to much now
UP FOR PAROL
Not sure he would have won the last day if it wasn’t for the faller and his best form is at 2m although he should want further. I’m not convinced he should be up to this level
FIRST STREET
Twice beaten favourite in bumpers but won over hurdles at the first time of asking while sporting a hood then settled and look a nice horse at Warwick the last day. Probably wants genuine good ground so might not get that here but like many, worth a poke in a weak Persian
HIDDEN HEROICS
Only one point run to judge this lad by but he did get a RPR of 90 which is always noteworthy. Hard to really place, but definitely interesting being pitched in here on rules debut although again, ground and a weak field may be part of the reason
PASO DOBLE
I was seriously impressed by this horse at Kempton when behind Tritonic in the Adonis. I think if he’d had a bit more go his way he wouldn’t have been far off winning that. Duly followed up in May back at Kempton in very good style and looks a genuine type for this race. Ground will suit and I think he’s the one they have to beat
Summary – PASO DOBLE I think has a favourites chance and it’s mostly the unknown of HIDDEN HEROICS that puts me off being really bullish. LUTTRELL LAD might be best of the rest
15:20
CABOT CLIFFS
Reasonably well fancied for the Fred Winter but was pretty poor in truth then flopped next time out. Not sure he’s got a race like this in him off 135 just yet
CASA LOUPI
Definitely plenty to suggest his mark of 131 is workable. Most notably his two runs behind TRITONIC and his last run last term albeit at short priced odds on. Chance I’d say
HERBIERS
Impressive to win the Sandown handicap at the end of last season as a 4yo and possibly still has wins in him off this new 8lb higher mark. Beaten favourite only time going left to date though
HELL RED
I suspect he’ll be one of the most popular runners this weekend off 130 for Nicholls, especially given how well he won at this meeting last year. Couldn’t put you off him and despite his high knees, he might just want his quicker ground
ELHAM VALLEY
Best form in this race really with his 3rd in the Fred Winter off a 3lb lower mark. Was woeful here back in January but that was a reasonable Grade 1, and back in handicap company you’d think he’s got a good chance and has likely been minded for this race
TINNAHALLA
Incredibly well treated with HERBIERS considers he was behind by 4lbs giving away 8lbs but is now in receipt of 4lbs from that rival. In effect a 12lb swing for a 4l loss. Another with a chance I’d say
MEGAN
Bled the last day but I’m not convinced she’s obviously well treated for a handicap
CALDWELL
Very impressive on handicap bow back in March and the 8lb rise probably won’t be enough to prevent another bold display
PYRAMID PLACE
Can’t have him, he’s held by some of these on previous form but STATE CROWN was well behind him and they’re off around the same mark now
STATE CROWN
Really wants quick ground but I just don’t think he’s good enough
ORCHESTRAL RAIN
Two handicap runs and two defeats, probably will enjoy the pace of this race but in previous years we’ve some horses get too carried away and go off to quick. Wants quick ground too
PROGRESSIVE
Had a wind op and a flat spin in preparation for this but I’m not sure she’s going to enjoy this bigger field and taking on the boys
Summary – HELL RED will be popular and you can see why, but he’s the sort of horse you wouldn’t trust to hold your pint for a second. ELHAM VALLEY must have a huge chance and I also think TINNAHALLA is weighted to go well, but might just find one too good and I could see CASA LOUPI running a good race too
15:55
NINA THE TERRIER
Carries a winners penalty and beat a 110 mare in SUBWAY SURF so be a fairly weak race if she can win this too
FAMILIAR SPIRIT
Well beaten in every start, impossible to fancy
MANSOLINE
Debut winner at 100/1 in a bumper but form looks naff and well held in mares bumper at Aintree in the spring
MY KEEPSAKE
Arguably didn’t show her true self the last day, step up in trip will suit and if you can forgive that last start she could run well
WHENTHEPENNYDROPS
Not the most exciting debut nor breeding so not for me
DOIREANN
Point looks just OK but his 4yo might have more behind than infront of her at the finish
ELUSIVE POLLY
Not much in her form
MONDORA
Half sister to Owners MALAYA and probably bumped into a couple on first two starts but was no excuses at Newbury after
RUNWITHTHETIDE
Won her small field point in good enough style but hard to pitch where she’ll be under rules. Given this doesn’t look a strong race she’d have a chance
Summary – Terribly weak looking race to my eye with MY KEEPSAKE, DOIREANN and RUNWITHTHETIDE probably the three I’d be keeping an eye on in the race but certainly no bets
16:25
HUNTMANS JOG
Sent off 2/1 in a Novices Handicap Chase at the end of last season for first start over fences but was 5th of 5. Dropped three pounds so you can expect him to be popular again, and the slight ease in ground probably will be welcome but does lack experience over these bigger obstacles and sports a first time Visor
SMUGGLERS BLUES
Ran really well here last November off a 3lb lower mark albeit making lots of mistakes too. If he can sweeten his jumping he’s got to have a chance on ground that will suit
READY AND ABLE
10lbs lower over fences than his highest hurdle winning mark and Kevin Brogan an eye catching booking. I’m just not sure this horses wins enough
JEAN GENIE
Not shown anything to suggest can win off this mark
FINGERONTHSWITCH
11yo now who it seem bizarre is running off 115 having peaked at 139 after just being touched off by OK CORRAL. Not been anywhere close to a winner since that day though so the wind op will have had to have performed a minor miracle
FROM THE HEART
4lbs higher than his last winning mark over fences which came last October just after landing this race itself off a 9lb lower mark. Possibly had this race in mind but does need to step forward
KILPIN
The first runner in this field which lit my eyes up when seeing him on the sheet. 112 rated chase who looked like he wanted the step up in trip last season although will strip stronger after another summer so might have his chance this season. Has had a wind op and despite never winning a race, I liked a couple of his runs last season so he’s one of the lower grade horses I’ll be keeping a close eye on all year
STRICTLYADANCER
Demands a career best effort off this mark and last two run back in the spring were not very encouraging
CESAR ET ROSALIE
Runs off 109 and won off 108 on his penultimate start. Better ground is key to this lad and I think he might want a flatter track too
ON CALL
Well beaten on every start since joining this yard and down 15lbs because of it. Ran here the last twice end of last season and was maybe a little unlucky on the first of those. Still a Novice and best form is a long way back, but maybe has an outside chance
CLONDAW RIGGER
Fell when in with a chance here back in April when ON CALL would have been well behind. That was over abit further however he was 2l third in this race in 2019 ff an 11lb higher mark so for those two reasons he’s a massive chance back in this sort of race, on this sort of ground
BARDEN BELLA
Won two starts back so at least in some level of form although was woeful the next day when taking on the horse she’d just beaten. That lack of consistency worries me in a big field race like this but possibilities
POWERFUL POSITION
Ex pointer who should improve for now going chasing and a very interesting starting point off a lowly mark of 90. Would be very punty to be with him but arguably wouldn’t be the biggest shock in here
Summary – Type of race I tend to avoid but I like KILPIN as one to watch this season, although I’m not saying he’s going to be winning loads of races. CLONDAW RIGGER would be my idea of the most likely winner while SMUGGLERS BLUE can go well too. I’m inclined to be more than just intrigued about POWERFUL POSITION starting off his chasing career in this race, having won his only point beating a horse who was 12 lengths behind big money purchase GINTO last spring
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