CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 3 - EVERY RUNNER, SOME RACES

 

TURNERS

 

It’s a match, and with BOB OLINGER’S jumping suggestive that he’ll not scale the heights over bigger obstacles he did over hurdles means I want to take him on. This ground won’t be an issue to either but we know the spring ground seemed to suit BOB last year. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS I think will break his heart from the front and I don’t see him being caught

PERTEMPS

Loads of chances in here and it's such a plotty race I have very small view in it. I liked PILEON and moreso THE COB now the rains comes, he's around a 50/1 chance. WINTER FOG was one I was put onto when the weights came out

 

RYANAIR CHASE

 

ALLAHO deserves to be the price he is and I can’t see him beat. When looking for alternatives I think there’s something to like about plenty so I’ll leave my thoughts there

 

 

STAYERS’ HURDLE

 

CHAMP – Undoubtably has ability but two RPR’s of 170, one of 165 when winning the Long Walk, but other than that he’s all sub 160’s so on balance, he’s more potential than ability and he’s 10 now. Crimson Embers won in 1986 as an 11yo but never been a 10yo winner

FLOORING PORTER – Known to be a bit temperamental, including his trainer worrying about there being no rail throughout here because he thought he needed one before winning this 12 months ago. Looks every bit as good this season an posting progressive ratings. He’s the one to beat for sure

HOME BY THE LEE – Nice horse but just not up to this

KLASSICAL DREAM – Seriously talented horse on his day and the prelims of the Supreme weren’t enough to get him beat. That’s still a minor worry with him, and he threw in a howler the last day but they weren’t too hard on him. I was quite impressed at Leopardstown at Christmas how he went so quick then took a bit of a breather and picked up again. This course may sap his stamina though and he won’t get such an easy lead this time round. I think he’s vulnerable to a stronger stayer but chance is there for all to see

KOSHARI – Would be a minor miracle if he won this, 10yo plus about a stone below what it might take

LISNAGAR OSCAR – Runs plenty of good looking races but even when landing this race his peak RPR is 159 so he’s not for me

PAISLEY PARK – Clearly a very good horse on his day, but not always at his best these days and he used to be pretty consistent. 10yo too like CHAMP and I think his days are gone at the top table

SONG FOR SOMEONE – Certainly interesting at this trip but I’m not sure it’s what he wants and does have a chuck to find on figures. At least the unknown of the trip could help bring improvement as something needs to change to do so, he’ll have his fans at the price and a not every horse shorter than him is assured to run their true race

THYME HILL – Don’t think we’ve seen the best of this horse but he’s posted 4 RPR’s in the 160’s with a flop in France in between. Run at Ascot was good and he’ll come on from that. Cannot see him outside the first three, he’s straightforward too, so he’s got a proper chance

ROYAL KAHALA – gets the mares allowance and she’s progressive I just don’t think her win the last day is really worth anything. Bit to find for me, priced a bit shorter than she should be but only ever outside the first 2 when finishing lame here last year in the Mares’ Novice

 

Summary

 

Probably not giving the mare enough respect in here but she has to improve to land this. CHAMP & PAISLEY I like, but have to drawn the line with both as their so inconsistent and both 10 too. KLASSICAL DREAM is capable but has his risks attached, both temperament and stamina and while FLOORING PORTER still has a little glow around him about his head, I trust him much more and he won this 12 months ago. THYME HILL might not be the best horse in the race if they all showed up firing, but he might have a little bit more to come and he’s rock solid to fill the frame. SONG FOR SOMEONE at 50/1 is interesting because he probably ought to be half that price so it’s a ‘value’ thing really more than solid case

 

Selection – FLOORING PORTER

 

PLATE

 

HARDLINE – Sent off 10/3 favourite in the 2019 arkle when well beaten. Cheekpieces applied now and pulled up on his penultimate start in his first open chase handicap. That was under todays jockey though, and they paired u p in a Novice Handicap chase back in 2019 off a similar mark when second to REAL STEEL. Ran well enough for a long way on his last start and he’s interesting

 

SIMPLY THE BETTS – Won this two years ago off a 6lb lower mark and doesn’t look a better course these days. Was second here on new years day off a 2lb lower mark so not without a chance has two wins and a second over Course and Distance so you can forgive his last run where the trip was too far and arguably the yard weren’t firing either

 

PISTOL WHIPPED – Pulled up and bled the last day, most and better form comes on good ground

 

IMPERIAL ALCAZAR – drop back this trip was the key the last day and beaten a couple of OK types on soft before. Mark looks too high for me now, but I said the same the last day. Can’t believe he’s this short a price and the 8lb rise for beating a non stayer and hard breather BEAKSTOWN seems harsh to me

 

FUSIL RAFFLES – I said at the start of last season I hoped he’d come here, maybe if he didn’t go up against CHANTRY HOUSE he might have landed this but he comes here 3lbs lower but despite winning this season his form is questionable at 3m. Likes better ground but it’s not as essential as you might be led to believe and this trip is bang on form him. 4 length 4^th back in December over course and distance off a 3lb higher mark so I think he’s got a monster chance. Seems like he’s been around forever but just remember he’s only just turned 7 (technically not 7 until May) so there’s likely more to come

 

WISHING AND HOPING – 12yo who gets a weight swing from the favourite but pulled up in the Foxhunters here last year so this doesn’t look achievable

 

CAVALRY MASTER – Notched up a 4 timer from April to July last year then a bit exposed over 3m twice after. Kept fresh since December though, dropped back in trip and while he has a bit to prove in Handicap company has a tongue tie and cheek pieces applied with Rachel on board. Interesting

 

COOLE CODY – 11yo who won over course and distance this season off a 2lb lower mark before being sent off favourite twice over course and distance after although well beaten. Deserves a go in here and can place but held for win purposes. Was 4^th in this last year behind THE SHUNTER off 2lb lower mark

 

SCHIEHALLION MUNRO – Nothern raider and I’m sure the marks given for those races don’t carry down here. Not for me

GRAND PARADIS – Half brother to BOB AND CO so for the sibling winning chance I hope he doesn’t land this. Not sure he’s done enough over fences to justify this 145 rating but was favourite for the Martin Pipe last season when he had to miss the festival off a similar number. I think he wants a trip and might just be next years NH CHASE horse. Maybe has a chance, but doesn’t look to be well in to me

 

STOLEN SILVER – Better form at 2m but looked like he wanted this trip for his previous yard too so I’m happy to ignore the last run to an extent. Bits of his 2m form suggest he can win off this mark so worth a second look although he’s got a mixed record round here, UR and PU with a second to CHANTRY HOUSE over hurdles

 

PRESENTANDCOUNTING – Good ground merchant and a bit buzzy, couldn’t have him at all

 

THE GLANCING QUEEN – Has in and out form and I’m a fan of hers. The Dipper run could look nice if L’HOMME PRESSE wins the RSA and she’s down a 1lb from that. OSCAR ELITE franked the form somewhat but there’s a niggle in me that the one in front and 3 behind her are all running over 3m now whereas she was running at her perfect trip in the Dipper. Chance for all to see but couldn’t have her at the price

 

CELEBRE D’ALLEN – 3 from 3 for Hobbs although not sure the last run is worth much. Owner won this in 2012 and 2014 so he’s interesting, but another who is short enough considering he’s not thrown into my mind and this course is very different to Warwick and Haydock

 

ADRIMEL – All known form on bad ground, pulled up three times on good to soft. Won the last twice with blinkers but really needs a significant downpour and even then, I’m not sure this is his track

 

BORN BY THE SEA – patchy form to say the least but on the pick of it he has sum OK runs considering he’s off 140 here. Gave DIOL KER 2lbs and was beaten a nk, now rated 9lbs higher than him, and was 5.75 lengths behind ASSEMBLE in September over a trip too far in receipt of 9lbs but that horse is now 17lbs higher than him. I think he’s overpriced despite being quite punty

 

FANCY FOUNDATIONS – Not overly sold he’s on a light mark bit another with bits of form to like, including when beating the ill fated HOI PALLOI at Hereford in 2020. Connections also have GRAND PARADIS

 

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES – Impossible to discount as he’s been 3^rd and 6^th in this race of lower marks (147,149) and races here off 136. This is his trip, he loves the course too so with a much improved run the last day under Jack Andrews in a race where all bar on horse traded shorter than their SP in running so it looked like it was quite a strong race. I think there’s reasons to be confident and he’s a big price really

 

SLATE HOUSE – Another I don’t think we’ve ever seen the best of but hard to keep making excuses for him now and opposable

 

FIRE AWAY – this is much harder than anything he run in before and demands a career best effort

 

CHINWAG – Winner last time out and on his 3^rd last start too, but this is much tougher and wouldn’t look to be up to this

 

GUY – I’m sure this lad has a bit more ability than he’s shown. Jumps well when he wants to but another one you couldn’t fancy on form alone

 

Summary

Real mixed bag of opinion here and I’m against the first four in the betting for one reason or another. I do really like the chance of FUSIL RAFFLES though so he’d be my idea of the winner but he’ll have company on my betslip. SIMPLY THE BETTS can be excused his last run and is capable of a bold show off his current mark. SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is 11lbs lower than when 3^rd in this in 2019 and showed enough the last day to make me think he’s still got it plus his run at Aintree last season off an 8lb higher mark over a trip too far was very good. STOLEN SILVER has a chance and I think BORN BY THE SEA is overpriced

 

Selections – MISTER COFFEY/SPIRITOFTHEGAMES

Lively outsider – BORN BY THE SEA

 

 

MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE

 

DINO BLUE looks the worthy favourite to me and I think the ground will suit her. She’s got a touch of the LAURINA’S about her so I do expect her to oblige. STATUAIRE I’ve talked about plenty over the season but she needs good ground so may not even run. MIGHTY BLUE for Jospeh O’Brien was third in this last year with a wide ride throughout. She’s better than that and gets some weight from a few here. CONCERTISTA won the race after running in it the previous year and MIGHTY BLUE at 25/1 is well worth expecting to go close herself.

Selection - MIGHTY BLUE

 

KIM MUIR

 

FRONTAL ASSAULT – Still a novice having run just three times over fences but came close enough on first and third runs. Not sure a mark of 145 is really justified but Rob James claims 7 which puts him in the mix. A bit unlucky here last year in the Martin Pipe but he also was well behind in a big field handicap hurdle in first time blinkers which were blamed

 

FAKIR D’ALENE – Markedly improved for a fence having only been a modest hurdler and I’d question if he has it in him to run off 144. Not for me

 

AINT THAT A SHAME – Tried against better types in his first two chase starts and they didn’t hang about hurdling with him. He is an 8yo though, and has just 6 runs under rules, but the last run just behind CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM looks ok, I just think he’s a short enough price

 

JANIKA – November 2019 was the last time he won when landing the Haldon Gold Cup off of 162. Cleary had issues since and for all the blinkers may help, it’s a giant leap of faith to back him

 

CAT TIGER – nice horse, probably handicapped to his peak now and this is much tougher although he looks a dour stayer, and the horse does not like to give up. Could see him staying on late in the day, just whether it’s too late is the question

 

SCHOOL BOY HOURS – Winner at Christmas in Leopardstown but the form not really working out. Crying out for this trip and if you go back to his Novice Chase campaign he’s plenty of form to suggest 142 is a winnable mark (narrowly behind EKLAT DE RIRE and prior LATESTN EXHIBITION) so he’s got his chance

 

ELEGANT ESCAPE – Down to 140 which is not far off where he started over fences back in 2017. Dissappointed when well backed at Exeter the last day. Runs in snatches these days so could get too far out of the race but a chance at a big price if he travels again, but it is a big ask

 

SMOKING GUN – Plenty of chase experience with 16 runs and two wins. Stays out the back and tries to pick off his opponents but patches of form where he’s been more prominent and it’s worked out. Good run at Fairyhouse the last day, gets in here just 2lbs higher than his Irish mark and looks to have his chance

 

MISTER FOGPATCHES – finished top 3 in 8 of his 12 chase starts and comes here in steady enough form. Really doesn’t jump very well so shows the engine and class he has to keep running into the places. 3^rd in the Scottish National last spring off an 11lb lower mark, but I’m not sure rating has much bearing on what this horse will do, and he was in the wrong place back here in December when COMMODORE sprant clear. I’d give this lad a leading chance, if he could jump I’d be having the lot on

ALMAZHAR GARDE – This is a big step up in class and ideally wants the ground quick

 

MISTER COFFEY – I think you’d struggle to find someone who thinks this horse has shown us the best he can be, a lot of time has passed now where you start to question his reliability but he’s shaped like a step up in trip could be the key to him so this is just that. Novice chaser still being 0 from 3 and on that form he’s got a bit to find, but as I say, he’s capable of more I think and this new trip could be the answer. He’s interesting and probably about the right price. Rain will help his chance even though this is a fresh course today

 

LORD ACCORD – Better ground his preference and from the times on Day 1 he’ll be fine even with some rain around. Not sure he’s got a whole lot up his sleeve though

 

MINDMADEUP – 11yo who was second here in November and might have been kept back since considering he’s not just a good ground horse as his summer runs might suggest. 8lbs higher than that run in November though which is hard to take when he didn’t even win that race

 

COME ON TEDDY – 3^rd in the Pertemps last year off a 3lb lower mark and won on chasing debut in a novice handicap chase. Looks to have been saved for this seince with a Grade 2 run after at this coursr over a trip too short, then a Novice handicap defeat in January juts a couple of weeks after the Grade 2, and he made a howler in there. Jumps alright, and considering he was just outclassed in that Grade 2 the horse just in front of him OSCAR ELITE ran 3^rd in the Ultima a couple of pounds out of the handicap so there’s lots to like about his chance

 

OMAR MARETTI – Beat TEDDY on his penultimate start getting 8lbs but as I say the runner up made a howler and they now run off levels. Win the last day was quite visually impressive but he had ALMAZHAR GARDE in second who I think would have hated the ground. But this lad is lightly raced under rules, progressive and relatively unexposed at this trip although confirmed as a stayer so has his chance

 

MINT CONDITION – Best of his form over shorter and I’m not sure Cheekpieces will increase his stamina. That said, his only form on Good To Soft ground behind WILDE ABOUT OSCAR last March which is strong and he’s been racing on slower before and since

 

THE MIGHTY DON – No question marks about his stamina and he has a few pieces of form to get excited about his current mark, notably beating ENRILO last season and when close to HAPPYGOLUCKY in another Novice Chase around here. He has won here too but festival form reads 9^th, 8^th and 6^th beaten over 60 lengths across those three. Big price though on balance

 

GLENLOE – 2018 was done a nose by DELTA WORK in the Pertemps final but hasn’t had much racing since 2019. Three runs, sent off 11/8 favourite the last day at Punchestown when well beaten but not given too hard a time. Derek O’Connor jumps ship though which could be telling

 

ROCCO – This season’s Badger Beer winner off this mark but was a 40.1 poke that day and been very poor since. Ground won’t be that quick here

 

CHAMBARD – aiming for a three timer and carries a 5lb penalty for that last win. Will want and need as much rain as possible

 

LARRY – Ascot winner on soft off 1lb lower mark and big trip swings in his next two starts after but his win was with a pulled up favourite and an ill fated second favourite so he was probably a little lucky that day

 

RIGHTPLACERIGHTIME – Emmet Mullins knows how to ready a horse but you’d think Patrick would be on if they fancied him. Only a 7yo and Maxine O’Sullivan knows how to win here herself. Twice beaten favourite on these shores, once over hurdle and also over fences, both this season so look less like a plot job and more of a rogue

 

POWERSTONE PARK – Travels well in his races but this is a big step up in class from a Class 3 at Hereford on good ground

 

RED INFANTRY – 12yo but at least comes here on the back of a promising run. Has course experience but not the most encouraging

 

Summary

Yet another handicap where I’ll say plenty in with chances but less so than some earlier this week. SCHOOL BOY HOURS & SMOKING GUN are the two in single figures I’d have preference for but I’d give MISTER FOGPATCHES massive chance too and he’s a double figure price currently. MISTER COFFEY has a good few quid on him but it’s less form and more feeling with him. COME ON TEDDY should go well and THE MIGHTY DON is grossly overpriced in my opinion

 

Selection – MISTER FOGPATCHES

Lively Outsider – THE MIGHTY DON

 

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 2 - EVERY RUNNER, ALMOST EVERY RACE

 

BALLYMORE

 

HAXO – Stayed on well behind a modest 2 miler on Hurdle debut. You’d think he’ll not lose his Maiden status here but be worth keeping an eye on how he shapes all the same because he’s not the only very unlikely winner in here so he’ll have his own yardsticks in behind

 

HEMLOCK – Another Maiden Hurdler, this one with form at the middle trip where he didn’t look the most straightforward. Impossible to fancy

 

I AM MAXIMUS – Form goes up and down, MR DROGO makes the bumper look good, JPR knocks the hurdle form in the Betfair hurdle, RAYMOND TUSK makes him look ordinary then HILLCREST makes him look alright. The reality is though, he’s rated 134, he might have a chance in a handicap off that mark but I can’t begin to think he’s a stone well in and even then 148 would typically not be enough to land this

 

JOURNEY WITH ME – unbeaten under rules and 1 from 1 in his point. Form from his Maiden hurdle worked out well with MINELLA CROONER and KILCRUIT in 2^nd and 3^rd respectively. His EFD Auction win the last day wasn’t going to tell us too much, but he got the job done and this is further which will suit more. CITY ISLAND came from that Auction race too, we know connections landed this with BOB OLINGER 12 months ago, and really he’s pretty solid, although not seemingly top grade based on that last effort. To play devils advocate and use my imagination a little though, he achieved an RPR of 142 ag Leopardstown in that Maiden hurdle win. KILCRUIT hit 141 after, CROONER hit 139 then 142 so you could say that with usual progression he’s probably at least high 140’s and having this race in mind from a while out, he could be peaking with the rest of Henry’s team and I think will post an effort in the 150’s, or is at least capable of that. Based more on faith than form though

 

SCARFACE – A third Maiden hurdler here who is officially rated 128. So much to find on that figure alone and when searching his form it’s hard to see a reason to think he can improve much from his Ascot run last month

 

SIR GERHARD – Only defeat under rules came at Punchestown and it may be this horse is best when allowed to dictate but I don’t see that being a problem in here. Jumping wasn’t great at the DRF so with more hurdles to jump here you can see a reason to knock him. I do think he’s classy and has a big enough engine that he’ll be OK over this trip, but his breeding will tell you he’s not made for this trip. JEREMY may have sired a couple of stayers, but the stamina for those came from the Dam side and for me, that’s where I prefer to look. Class and connections is what’s made him as short a price as he is. He’s got a favourites chance because of his class, but there’s no way he should be odds on because this trip isn’t going to bring the improvement from him that it might/should for others

 

STAGE STAR – Very progressive horse, and very likeable attitude. Professional in his races and prior, looks to be responsive to his jockey too. Need to keep on that upward curve here and it’s been talked about how the Challow Hurdle Winners don’t go onto win this race, but he’s as much as chance as any except for SIR GERHARD. Kept fresh for this and a big chance given that Chepstow Maiden and bumper win suggest this course could see him to even better effect

 

THREE STRIPE LIFE – 4^th in the bumper last year 8.25 behind SIR G then 6 behind him over hurdles at the DRF. This trip could be the leveller for the pair given theirs more stamina in his breeding. Not certain this race was the first choice as ideally you’d like to have stepped up in trip at least once prior, but he’s got a chance for sure

 

WHATDEAWANT – I think Willie thinks this horse will be better over further yet this is the owners race so that’s maybe why he’s here. Found out in a Grade 1 at Naas behind GINTO and his maiden form looks weak enough

 

Summary

SIR GERHARD might be the best horse in the race and that class could be enough to land this but there are probably better stayers than him in here. While this race is closer to the Bartlett than the Supreme in terms of trip, you do tend to get lots of speedy types winning this so he does have a favourites chance. Not sure he should be as short as he is, but that opens the door for some value in behind. THREE STRIPE LIFE, JOURNEY WITH & STAGE STAR could all run to about the same number but I’d suggest that STAGE STAR might just be the best of that trio, this course and trip will suit him. He travels well and looks very straight forward so he’ll take a tentative vote in a race I won’t be having much on in

 

Selection – STAGE STAR

 

BROWN ADVISORY NOVICES’ CHASE

 

AHOY SENOR – 66/1 winner at Aintree and I must admit I wasn’t sold on him to begin with but he ran well before unseating in the Colin Parker Memorial which was an intermediate chase for debut which isn’t the easiest starting point (same for BMG). Bolted up at Newbury where he left the impression he really is a good horse. Sent off favourite at Kempton vs BMG but I think that was more on the ground that the track because he should be better suited to a less sharp course, much like Cheltenham’s old. Does jump a little to his right, but he’s a novice and I’m not overly concerned. Wo the Towton in ready fashion and I personally think he’ll beat BMG around here. Whether that’s enough to land this race remains to be seen, but I think he’s got a right chance, despite slight concerns around his jumping. That’s more that fences look like an inconvenience rather than he can’t jump them and I don’t think he respects them which could be an issue here

 

BEACON EDGE – Noel Meade has always liked this horse, and I’m with him on that. I think the easy way to take him on is to dispute his stamina but he outstayed FURY ROAD over 2m 5f as a hurdler, he stayed well giving FAROUK D’ALENE 7lbs the last day on heavy ground when completing for the first time in Cheekpieces. Feel the time prior and did fall over hurdles but history will tell us the winners of this race don’t need to be foot perfect in their preparation. He’s posted on RPR above 160 but lots in the high 150’s. I think he’s got a chance at a price and I’d be sure he’ll run well

 

BRAVEMANSGAME – No doubt this is a serious horse but I’m still not sold on him being a gold cup horse. I’m not sure they track suits him and he didn’t see out the Ballymore that well to my eye. Jumps great and travels nicely but he does that until he doesn’t anymore. I think he can go out quite quickly and while his jumping will be a major advantage he’s not jumped these fences and we don’t know how he’ll handle a mistake. I don’t think he’ll stay this trip and the race is fairly deep so I’m happy to take him on at the prices

 

CAPODANNO – Dotted up at the Punchestown festival over 2m last season after skipping Cheltenham. Looks like a horse who can run at most trips but this test is an unknown. That said, the way he’s talked about he looked at one point like a potential NH Chase type although his breeding doesn’t quite back that up, but hey, TIGER ROLL was flat bred. Unseated last time which isn’t ideal, but as mentioned earlier hasn’t stopped previous winners of this race

 

DUSART – Half Brother to SIMONSIG, winner of the Arkle so they’re clearly very different types. No doubt he has a big engine, not so sure he jumps well enough to remain in contention for this race. If I was Ronnie Bartlett I’d have swapped him and STATTLER over but then what do I know

 

FAROUK D’ALENE – Was all over this lad for the Albert Bartlett last season but he never came over. Lots of talk to suggest he has to go right handed and wants deep ground but chasing this season shows otherwise. Close second to STATTLER in a Grade 3 before beating BEACON EDGE in the Ten Up. I do like him, I give him a chance, but I think he’s not quite up to this and it is a deep renewal

 

FURY ROAD – Sent off just 4/1 in last years’ stayers hurdle when pulling up but they’d delayed Chasing because they thought they had better options for Novices’ last season. Not keen on the after thought process for him but was a close third in the Albert Bartlett behind MONKFISH the season prior and his only win over fences came at 3m in a Grade 1 at Christmas beating two leading NH Chase hopes. Was behind BEACON EDGE over 2m 4f before that but at this trip there’s not much to split that pair

 

GAILLARD DU MESNIL – 2^nd to BOB OLINGER last season and while GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has shone over fences this lad has struggled and comes here still a Novice. Doesn’t look a natural chaser but did stay on passed BMG in the Ballymore so if he put it all together he wouldn’t be the biggest shock of the week but might be the type to see headgear return at some point but for all that he is only 6 so has time on his side

 

L’HOMME PRESSE – Pedigree doesn’t scream out that he wants a step up in trip but despite that lots of people fancy him in this race. I’m not quite as sure. I’m dubious about his form despite never really ever being asked and there’s no doubt he’s a very smart prospect. I’m just not sure he’s an RSA winner in waiting and he’s plenty short enough for me now

 

STREETS OF DOYEN – Didn’t qualify for the NH Chase and really has a lot to prove in this company

 

THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE – Owner wanted to run here, Trainer wanted to run the NH Chase but they wanted to keep Adrian Heskin on board. He’s progressed as the season has gone on but while plenty are reading into his form to boost those in behind I’m just not impressed enough to suggest he any better than a 150 horse. Happy to be proven wrong, and he has course experience over these fences which the others don’t. I just don’t think he’s good enough

 

Summary

I’m keen to take on BRAVEMANSGAME at his price so I’m glad GDC isn’t racing here. To be honest, I think the race is deep enough and full of horses who do stay well that I’m going to place lay him. Relatively low risk approach I admit but I’d say AHOY SENOR is my idea of the ‘best’ horse in the race and he’s the one I think or more so hope wins the race. Not a confident selection because of his jumping but it’s built into the price and I think he should be second favourite and shorter than he is. BEACON EDGE is an underappreciated horse so I’ll have a small bet on him and FURY, who is also a bit of a forgotten horse after last season but on his day he’s as good as these

 

Selection – AHOY SENOR

Bigger prices – BEACON EDGE, FURY ROAD

 

 

CORAL CUP

 

THE BOSSES OSCAR – Aborted novice chasing to come here so it’s clearly an afterthought. Second in the Pertemps off a 3lb lower mark, but really hard to get excited about back at this trip and back over the smaller obstacles. Looks held at the moment but loves it here

 

ASHDALE BOB – Fancied as a player for the Bartlett last year but never came here instead stayed in Ireland for Fairyhouse and Punchestown where he picked up a Grade 2 and Grade 2 second. Solid form, not been so good since but hinted at a revival the last day I just don’t think the 3lb claim from 152 is enough to bring him down to a winning mark

 

COMMANDER OF FLEET – Cracking horse who won at 40/1 under his jockey in here albeit off an 8lb lower mark. Pulled up after and probably better at 3m nowadays

 

MCFABULOUS – Two spins here confirm he lacks a bit and doesn’t stay. Down to 150 now and cheekpieces applied, he’s got a chance but doesn’t feel like he’s got the 5-7lbs under his belt to land this

 

SAINT FELICIAN – 5yo only had two spins over hurdle for Gordon after a nice win in France which meant he’s not a novice this spring. 149 looks a hefty enough mark to defy and was beaten favourite in a Grade 3 the last day. Possibly the graded horse in the Handicap according to many but he was beaten in that Grade 3 which means currently he’s not quite Graded standard even with the step up expected to bring a bit more out of him so I’m against him at such short odds. He’ll run well though

 

GRAND ROI – This lad looked like he might be something special when being sold by the Million In Mind Partnership for big money. Yet to really show himself for the new yard despite a Grade 2 win on his second start. 149 and Cheekpieces to me scream out he’s the one who could run a monster race. He’s got RPR’s in the 150’s so this mark is within the range I’d like to see and he was sent off 6/1 favourite for this 12 months ago although he was well beaten. Redemption could await

 

HANG IN THERE – Raced mostly on flatter tracks although won here in a Grade 2 novice hurdle over 2m so I’m not sure they’re avoiding the undulations. Mark of 148 probably overestimates him in truth though so not for me

 

THE SHUNTER – Winless since running for JP but he’s a better hurdler than he is a chaser yet has a lower rating. Unseated at the DRF so a chance this is an after thought but, I also think they fancy his chances and have maybe thought about this for some time. Mark Walsh last rode at Punchestown last season when a beaten 3/1 favourite but the winner that day has won since and he has to be on the shortlist

 

GOWEL ROAD – Recency bias maybe is allowing him to be the price he is because after his November win at the track he looked a proper Coral Cup type. Not sure the 4lb rise for his second at Lingfield was helpful or truly justified and that was back at two miles. Maybe just enough to halt his progression here but then I do think he’s for more to come so he’s a hard one to balance. 11lb swing with UNEXPECTED PARTY who is a bit shorter priced than him

 

DALY TIGER – Mixing over both obstacles this season and last won while hurdling at the middle trip on heavy ground. Won his Maiden on good ground so although hes run on slow stuff since, I don’t think it’s essential and he beat TORNADO FLYER over fences in November 2020. Won a 2m 1f handicap Chase last January in Ireland off 147, and he’s in here off 145 with Walsh claiming 3lbs. That makes him potentially extremely well handicapped and that hurdle win in December had some alright horses in behind with him giving 5lbs, including THE GOFFER who was in receipt of 2lbs but 13.5 lengths back. He’s probably overpriced but still a bit punty

 

GANAPATHI – Underwhelmed in The County last year then fell at Punchestown but was on the premises in that Grade 1 with GAILLARD DU MESNIL the winner that day. Should have progressed despite clearly having his issues, and 5lbs higher than this time last year. First time tongue tie and he’s interesting

 

CHRISTOPHER WOOD – Bumped into one at Ascot on Stable debut but he’s not going to get in here whereas he will. Massive price really but another who doesn’t seem to much if any in hand

 

DROP THE ANCHOR – Another JP runner (see THE SHUNTER) but was eyecatching in defeat in last years county off a 3lb higher mark and looked to be crying out for this extra distance on his breeding. Given a quiet enough ride at the DRF too so I think he’s going to be close here

 

DANS LE VENT – Won the Exchange at Haydock earlier this season but this is too competitive to entertain another big run

 

UNEXPECTED PARTY – Dan Skelton has been bullish about his chances. Good winner at Ascot but hiked up 12lbs and I’m not sure that was justified. Unexposed of course with so few runs as a 7yo but started his handicaps off 109 so he’ll need to have improved 3 stone to land this really. Strong traveller though, but just think his price is a bit tight

 

GARRY CLERMONT – Behind UNEXPECTED PARTY at Ascot by 8.5 lengths, dropped 1lb so has a 13lb swing. Cheekpieces applied and his Maiden hurdle was over 2m 4 1/2 f so you’d think they’ve always thought he wanted a trip. Won a handicap over 2m 3f off a 12lb lower mark last May then raced exclusively at Ascot since, caught the eye too on his penultimate start behind TRITONIC where he travelled well into the race, something he’s not always done. Clearly bumped into one the last day but I rate this lads chances from a yard who know how to win at The Festival

 

CALL ME LORD – International winner here back in 2019 when rated 160. Not been the same horse since which is why he’s down to a lowly (for him) 142. Wouldn’t be the biggest shock as the trainer had other options in the race who appeared to be well handicapped

 

FASTORSLOW – 2 hurdles and chase in France before three hurdles in Ireland for Martin Brassil. Rated 137, Darragh O’Keeffe is a choice booking for these connections so happy he’s still on (look at WHATDEWANT as he was jocked off which is a negative). French Hurdle form looks ok so worth a Market Check, but his French Chase form doesn’t look so inviting

 

CAMPROND – Another JP horse who ran well in The Greatwood, a race of which the form is working out well. Will prefer this trip although really does want good ground. Has wiggle room off the mark for sure, but priced as such and I don’t like his ground dependency, especially with rain forecast Wednesday and plenty of racing going through this course over day 1 and including the Ballymore

 

INDIGO BREEZE – 140 for handicap debut for Gordon Elliott and raced mostly at 2m. Wouldn’t be too bullish about his form although the trip maybe is what he wants looking at his breeding but it’s a punt I’m not willing to take

 

CHAMPAGNE GOLD – Poor in the Martin Pipe last year with little excuse but was just over length behind DROP THE ANCHOR on his run before that albeit a year ago. That gives him a 10lb swing, the step up in trip is what he wants when you look at his Grade 3 effort as a Novice hurdler and where they trip him while Chasing this season. Dropped back over hurdles at the DRF for a confidence booster I’d say, was kindly dropped 2lbs and races here off a 5lb lower mark than when sent off 6/1 in the Martin Pipe. He’s a mega price at around 40/1 and will be taking a few quid from me

 

TOP MOON – first run for Ben Haslam, dropping in the weights so now 7lb lower than when 30 length 20^th in this race in 2020. Impossible to fancy

 

MAZE RUNNER – 5lbs higher than his Irish mark here and has raced at either 2m or 3m. Middle trip is more than interesting and he did run quite well at the DRF so worth a second look

 

TRONADOR – 9^th in the Boodles last year off 129 and 9lbs higher now. Nothing to note over the summer hurdling but did beat DANS LE VENT at Aintree last season who we know has improved since. Interesting again, but maybe one for Aintree

 

FAIR FRONTIERES – Modest hurdling form to be honest but making handicap debut and thrown in the deep end. Hard to think he’s up to this though

 

MARS HARPER – 4.5 lengths behind CAMPROND where I thought he ran really well off levels. Only 3lbs lower than him now so the gap is still there although a chance he’s progressed further and the ground won’t worry this lad so I think he’ll reverse the form. Whether that’s enough to win this though is another question

 

Summary

Typical Cheltenham Handicap summary from me here with so many that you can make cases for. Of those at shorter prices I’d prefer DROP THE ANCHOR, THE SHUNTER & GOWEL ROAD but I’m happy to play a couple or few at big prices here so MAZE RUNNER, CHAMPAGNE GOLD & GARRY CLERMONT will all get a couple of quid each way for me and will go in the start of a block double with the Grand Annual. I might even add CALL ME LORD and if there’s a bit more rain DALY TIGER too

 

Selections – MAZE RUNNER, CHAMPAGNE GOLD & GARRY CLERMONT

 

 

 

CHAMPION CHASE

 

CHACUN POUR SOI – I’ll keep it short on this lad because I understand the concerns with Travel here and maybe the hill, but he’s for me right up there as the top 2 mile chaser in training and he’s been here before whereas the top two havn’t. Paul Townend looked devastated that he didn’t win last year when trading 1.15 in running and looked the winner jumping the last. He jump didn’t quicken which lends itself to be the hill as the issue but I’m happy to think if he was asked a bit sooner he might have met the hill in a better stride and been ok. I think he can go as fast as anything at the business end, I just think on an incline he needs to be asked to raise his effort sooner so under Patrick I’m expecting a similar race to 2017 where he went on with DOUVAN before falling when going well. I still believe he can win this despite it being a harder race than last year

 

ENERGUMENE – Just the 9 runs under rules and they didn’t waste time in getting him over fences but he had his issues early on. Similar to CHACUN coming into this last year really, winning form back home in Ireland but there’s no doubt his effort at Ascot was enough to show he’s a serious horse. I’m just on in agreement that if you stopped the race at the same distance as this, because you’d run it differently. He’s not been to Cheltenham yet, and while there’s no reason to question the hill, this is a Champion Chase with lots of experienced horses in it. CHACUN going off will help this lad have a fast pace to aim at as I don’t think it would have helped him the last day having to take it up from the off but just shows there’s not many horses who can go his gallop early on. I’d rather CPS than him personally but there’s not much between them on talent, I just think ENERGUMENE doesn’t have as much experience left handed and using CAPTAIN GUINESS as a loose yardstick, there’s probably not a lot between the trio apart from the prices, but he’s third in for me

 

ENVOI ALLEN – Still a great horse, didn’t really beat a genuine 2 miler at Christmas when winning a Grade 1 in name but not nature. Good enough win earlier back at Down Royal though and while it would take a leap of faith to trust he’s back to his best, that best might still not be good enough to land this

 

FUNAMBULE SIVOLA – Not sure the Game Spirit depth is anywhere close to Champion Chase standard but mark was ruined for the Grand Annual so might as well have a crack in here to see what they’ve got. It’s not a Champion Chaser though I’ll tell you that now

 

NUBE NEGRA – Big run in the race last year, not very good in the Tingle Creek, especially so when you considering CPS was injured. SHLOER Chase was an OK effort but in hindsight he beat very little. Keeping him fresh looks wise and he did topple ALTIOR last season so no forlorn hope but I just think the big 3 are that bit better than him

 

POLITOLOGUE – Looking to the first 11 year old since MOSCOW FLYER in 2005 who also regained his crown in that win. Picked up a weak enough Champion Chase though and his days are gone now I think

 

SHISHKIN – The rightful favourite, the best 2 miler this season if he lands this. I think he’s tons better than ENERGUMENE so I have no worries he’ll beat him, I just think if CPS manages to get loose he’ll have to work hard to pick him up but then Nico knows how to handle race tactics in here more than anyone as he showed on ALTIOR. Jumping wasn’t great at Ascot and this will be the biggest field he’s run in since the Supreme where he only won by a head so congestion could be an issue

 

PUT THE KETTLE ON – Has to race here to defend her crown so I respect connections but she’s been out of form and this is looking like an impossible task for all that she love Cheltenham

 

Summary

I think CHACUN will go out in front, I hope Patrick kicks on early and pinches a lead and I don’t think they’ll catch him. ENERGUMENE I can’t have but I do respect he has a chance. SHISHKIN should win this, but there are fine margins in this race potentially so the mid part of the race will be massive, because CHACUN went through it well last year all the way to the last and it’s likely that SHISHKIN is the one who will have to pass more horses than ENERGUMENE to land this so let’s hope he’s not found wanting for pressure

 

Selection – CHACUN POUR SOI

 

CROSS COUNTRY

Tiger Roll wins this, not interested in at as a betting race for anything else. Hon The Tiger! 

GRAND ANNUAL

 

SKY PIRATE – Sold prior to last season before landing this race with the drop back to the minimum trip the key. Run alright this season and only 4lb higher than 12 months ago but that’s enough to temper any enthusiasm with him

ANDY DUFRESNE – Came with a big reputation and big price tag but I remember reports in his younger days suggesting he might not be a Cheltenham horse. Great run the last day giving 7lbs to CAPTAIN GUINESS who is a 150’s horse in his own right so the 155 he gets in off here looks workable and comes here fresh, although with his lack of racing as an 8yo he lacks experience and that keeping him fresh may not have been totally by design

 

EDITEUR DU GITE – Gary Moore doesn’t just have social runners at Cheltenham in the main and this lad has climbed the handicap ranks this season. Progressive profile sometimes what you want in this race and races from the front end which you also want. Chance the handicapper has caught up with him, but I thought the same of last years winner so he’s got a chance

 

A WAVE OF THE SEA – Keeps winning at the DRF and Shane Fitzgerald keeps the ride here but he’s off an 8lb higher mark and never really shone at the track. Not completely ruled out but unlikely

 

EXIT POLL – Changed ownership beginning of this season and seems like he prefers quicker ground than he’s going to face in here. 5lbs higher than his Irish mark and has been well held the last thrice plus has lengths to find with EMBITTERED now on these terms

 

BEFORE MIDNIGHT – Won at Aintree last spring then continued that form at the beginning of this season. Another who may just want a quicker surface than he might get here, but recency bias has meant this lad is probably a fair price now and he’s another who loves to be up there

 

EMBITTERED – 9/2F for this race 12 months ago off a 1lb higher mark so of automatic interest considering he fell that day, too early to really say, but he was travelling well. Been kept busy since, including in much better company the last thrice but he comes here with a massive chance, plain for all to see

 

BUDDY RICH – Been the one plenty have wanted to back for a long time and he’s been saved since November for this. I’m not sure he has the bottle in a battle which will definitely happen in here and he too would love a quicker surface. Enough negatives when you consider his price so not for me

 

ELIXIR DE NUTZ – I’ve liked this horse for a long time and he was a Grade 1 winning hurdler when he took the Tolworth in 2019. Lots of Cheltenham form that season too, was incredibly impressive the last day at Kempton but his runs prior to that would suggest his mark maybe a little high. I think he’s capable though, and comes here in good form. Ground should suit and maybe he’s finally turned a corner

 

AMARILLO SKY – Stable mate of ELIXIR and the one the yard seem to be pretty keen on. Won as he liked at Newbury last month which surprised me as I thought they’d want to keep the mark down but they’re happy that he would build on that effort so he’s another in with a chance

 

DANCING ON MY OWN – Price dried up a bit on this horse but has started to come back out. He ticks lots of boxes for this race and historically, most winners have form at a longer trip, or at least have tried further. Key to this lad will be to get him up in the front but that same tactic applies to most. He did of course beat BUDDY RICH back in October and 1lb better off. Happy with Darragh on board so he’s one on my shortlist

 

IL RIDOTO – Won at Newbury like a Graded horse but pulled up after a very quick turnaround in the Henry Viii novices chase were only a 6/1 poke. Beaten again in January at Lingfield when there were question marks around the yard but wasn’t beaten out of sight and I think with Harry Cobden still in the saddle he’s got a massive chance at a price

 

THYME WHITE – Stablemate to IL RIDOTO and Paul keeps saying he’s got a proper chance. Bryony keeps the ride after winning on him back in December at Doncaster. Up 8lbs for that and been kept fresh since but I’m not so fond of the form in that race and can race keen and jump badly. He tried to run out at the first at Ascot when unseating Harry Cobden too so clearly has a head on him

 

FRERO BANBOU – Has some big weight swings with the likes of EDITEUR DE GITE and IL RIDOTO but has been well beaten by both. Running style from the back means the last twice but can track the leaders depending how quick they go. Jumps well in the main and place chance for sure but this is a step up in class and off a career high mark

 

POSEIDON – Half length behind EMBITTERED off levels and has 4lb pull here. About the only form you could use to make a case for him really but beat GRANGE WALK in October who landed a big handicap chase in Leopardstown at Christmas and is rated 140 in his own right now so enough to say 25/1 is enough to make you look twice

 

GUMBALL – Cheekpieces applied here and he’s down to a mark of 140 which is probably, well definitely a winnable mark for him. He is a bit of a law unto himself, but would have beaten ELDORADO ALLEN over fences here in November 2020 so on his day he’s capable and maybe overpriced

 

CAPPUCIMIX – Ran well for a long way at a big price in this last year but off a 2lb lower mark. Hard to think he can go any better this time round

 

FOR PLEASURE – Bit of a tearaway horse, loves being out in front and can go quick. Just very little form in better company to suggest that works out for him and 138 doesn’t look the lightest of marks based on his form in bigger fields

 

HASANKEY – This is a major step up in class to anything he’s faced before and can’t have him

 

GLOBAL CITIZEN – Crazy to see his mark in the 130’s and always a chance he’ll pop up soon, but he’s a flat track horse so not for me, despite looking back more than once at the fact he’s 50/1 and probably bigger on the day

 

Summary

 

Wide open handicap which is typical of Cheltenham, those at the head I prefer EMBITTERED, AMARILLO SKY. In the mid section I think DANCING ON MY OWN has a proper chance and I can see IL RIDOTO going close as too can I see GUMBALL running a massive race. Be part of my blocks bets with the Coral Cup

 

Selections – DANCING ON MY OWN, IL RIDOTO, GUMBALL

 

 

 

 

CHAMPION BUMPER

The front too of FACILE VEGA & AMERICAN MIKE do look to have little to split them other than price so MIKE gets my vote on that front. REDEMPTION DAY has a proper chance and is well thought of as is JAMES'S GATE. HOULANBATORDECHAIS is very interesting given connections had MERCURY who won well enough to warrant a run in here so could be on at a price. Outside that I've looked at the field but nothing interests me out side those already mentioned. I personally have laid FACILE VEGA so have the field running for me

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 1 - EVERY RUNNER, EVERY RACE

 

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

 

BRING ON THE NIGHT – Maiden Hurdle winner, did it well and registered an RPR of 135 which really is a good bit short of this standard. Lacks the experience, Flat Bred and the horses he beat on debut, regardless of how easy he did it, have no substance in their prior form. Very hard to make any case for him here other than he’s Willie Mullins

 

CONSTITUTION HILL – Two hurdle wins and both in great fashion, both at Sandown and on varying ground too. Posted 148 and 152 RPR’s respectively, visually looks a proper horse in the right kind of mould, settles, travels, picks up when asked and looks very straightforward. Will want a trip in time but then most Supreme horses do, he’s a Grade 1 winner and should be favourite for the race

 

DYSART DYNAMO – I really like this lad. I was so taken by his debut over hurdles where he was given an RPR of 135 but I thought it was better than that. Dotted up in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer where he just looked so effortless again, but he was going a proper pace and was given an RPR of 153. I know Jamie Codd has said he was free in a bumper and that could be an issue at Cheltenham on the big stage. But I think they won’t see which was he’s gone, I really don’t think he lacks an extra gear despite not having to use it yet, and I think he’s the one to beat. KLASSICAL DREAM wasn’t the sexy owners, he was also a bit of a fruitloop to post, but off the front setting a strong gallop he always had the engine, which this lad possesses too. He’s not 100% straightforward because of that buzziness, so I’d keep an eye on him in the prelims and going down to post, but it wouldn’t completely put me off, I just think you’ll get a better price to mitigate the risk

 

JONBON – Full brother to DOUVAN is exciting enough but this lad has presence too. I saw him at Newbury on hurdling debut where he honestly looks like a horse possessed. Pretty impressed with the debut, although it was at a time GOOD RISK AT ALL didn’t really like jumping. Wasn’t as impressed at Ascot as others were and again the same at Haydock. He’s clearly a nice horse but he doesn’t scream out to be a Supreme winner to me. Best RPR of 149 and the last run was 146. I think that’s about right and he’s half a stone behind DYSART and CONSTITUTION HILL. Will get a good pace to aim at, but the fact they were reluctant to use him in those first two runs, whereas the likes of DYSART DYNAMO can’t wait to get racing at a proper clip, makes me think this lad will be in trouble a long way from home

 

JPR ONE – Royally mugged me off in the Betfair Hurdle. I left him on debut because there wasn’t the form to go by, but he looked a nice horse, I then laid him at Taunton when he won then backed him in the Betfair. He’s got no chance in here, but he’s better than he showed the last day

 

KILCRUIT – Never really been a straightforward horse, given that Tony Mullins touted him as a worldie before getting him beat in a bumper. Now I know bumper form isn’t essential to a Supreme, but he was beaten in the Champion Bumper here when he really showed the class in that sphere. He then lost his first two hurdle starts before bolting up at Punchestown. That was an RPR of only 141 though, so while he clearly has loads of ability, he’s just too in and out for me ever trust and arguably he’s terribly priced at just 6/1. Wouldn’t be a huge shock winner of the race, but I’d be disappointed if he came out on top

 

MIGHTY POTTER – Won the Future Champions’ Novice at Christmas so he’s the only other G1 winner in here with CONSTITUTION HILL, and he did a lot wrong that day too so his RPR of 143 might read low, but you’d upgrade that if he jumped better, but he didn’t. Beaten in the Royal Bond prior when arguably an eye catcher. Looks a very smart horse, this is just potentially a very smart renewal. That said, he’s much more straightforward than some in here. I’d be more trusting and exciting about him than both KILCRUIT and JONBON, and while he’s not as good as DYSART DYNAMO I’d also rather have this lads temperament. The one major flaw is that jumping from Christmas, but no doubt he’s schooled plenty since. I just worry that the pace they’ll go here he’ll be forced to make mistakes although I’d say if he was going to fall ever it would have been the last day, and while he’ll stay on, he probably is just going to place, he’s not a likely winner

 

SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE – Beaten in the Dovecote at Kempton and 26 lengths behind CONSTITUION HILL in the Tolworth. Ground could be an excuse that day, but it’s still way too much ground to make up and he should have won the last day but didn’t. Gary Moore doesn’t just run horses at Cheltenham though, so maybe he’s overpriced with question marks around a few towards the front of the market

 

SILENT REVOLUTION – Just the one hurdles spin back in Newbury and form doesn’t read too great now. Would need to have improved bundles from then to have any chance in here and I just can’t make any case for him to have done that.

 

Summary

The market has this spot on I think, well if CONSTITUTION HILL goes off favourite anyway but I do think that JONBON or KILCRUIT would be slightly disappointing winners of the race based on what they’ve actually achieved. Now I know both CONSTITUTION HILL and DYSART DYNAMO have been wide margin winners against probably very little, but each of their runs have been that of a very good look horse. The fact we have to defend JONBON’S efforts and make excuses for KILCRUIT just displays that they have their flaws and probably their limits. DYSART does worry me with little jumps to the right, and the temperament thing, but neither are pronounced enough for me to be that worried, and I think we can wait until the off before we back him to endure any pre race antics allowing him to drift a bit. If he jumps right early I think we can take a loss and lay out. CONSTITUTION HILL though is just such a solid option. He’s got the numbers in the bag, he’s got the temperament and the aura about him but I just struggle to get away from the fact DYSART really does look like he could be a monster. Won’t be a race for me to get too involved in, might see if I can get both horses on side because I think CH might drift a little for now then shorten near the off, whereas I think DYSART will go the other way. MIGHTY POTTER all day is the scummy EW bet an William Hill are offering 5 places, not that you’ll need them, but great concession all the same considering 6^th 7^th 8^th and 9^th in the betting are 25,50,80 & 100/1

 

Selection – DYSART DYNAMO

 

 

ARKLE NOVICES’ CHASE

 

BLUE LORD – Decent hurdler and unbeaten over fences. One of two comeback mounts for Paul Townend and he commented after that debut how well he jumps at home. That’s clear on the track too. I know people will say they went quick at DRF but I think they’ll go even quicker in this race which suits him even more. Maybe idled a bit in the run in where plenty think RIVIERE D’ETEL would have gone back passed him, but she didn’t and she made that howler of a mistake when under pressure. Things won’t be easier for her in this race whereas BLUE LORD seems to take it all in his stride. Substandard ARKLE in terms of class, but this lad is rated 158, last two RPR’s over 160 and he’s only getting better. I like him

 

BRAVE SEASCA – Notable for me that Venetia thinks she can revers the 5 length defeat and 5lb swing with EDWARDSTONE. Personally don’t see it myself but probably having a crack here as a 150’s run would put him in the mix potentially which might not be enough in a Grand Annual

 

COEUR SUBLIME – Best of the field over hurdles, took until his third start to get a win over fences and was 14 behind RIVIERE D’ETEL at Christmas, don’t see him featuring personally, he was so back in that Champion hurdle two years back too and his 3^rd came in a very weak Triumph

 

EDWARDSTONE – Really have struggled to warm to him as a Grade 1 Chaser but he earnt that title at Sandown earlier this season and he’s been impressive since. I still don’t think he’s beaten anything of substance, and faces 7 Irish raiders here so they’re not scared of him either clearly. Don’t fully trust that Kingmaker at Warwick, I’ve touched on Venetia happy to take him on again despite the 5lb worse terms, and Dan Skelton was giving THIRD TIME LUCKI a quick turnaround after an apparent over reach injury. The run at Kempton prior was knocked by SOLO and DO YOUR JOB only just won a class three handicap off 140 last time out. Really don’t think he’s done anything to say he’s a 160’s horse, his OR of 159 for me is a little inflated and I can’t see anymore progression so I’m keen to take him on as the favourite for this race

 

GABYNAKO – Supplemented for this but still going to be a big priced runner. Last run over 2m was in a handicap hurdle off 138 where well beaten, I just think they wanted to swerve Bob and Galopin, but really, I can’t see him finishing top 5 here, whereas they probably won’t even be 5 in the Turners. I also don’t believe his OR of 152 to be true, certainly not back at 2m

 

HAUT EN COULEURS – Fell early in the DRF where only 10/3 behind BLUE LORD and RIVIERE D’ETEL but his jumping was highlighted by Daryl after his chase debut where he seems to take an extra step and wants to make the decision rather than listening to the jockey. That’s not ideal in any Arkle but he ran well here in the Triumph last year and wouldn’t be a shock winner, if not the most likely at this stage. One thing that is for sure, he’s so lightly raced, he’s bound to be improved from the last completed start, and that was a well deserved RPR of 155 given the runner up has bolted up twice since and himself earnt mid 150’s RPR’s so he’s potentially right up there in terms of ability. His hurdle form was twice placed in G1’s and ending with an OR of 146 so I like him

 

RED ROOKIE – Nothing to suggest he’s capable of being in the mix here

 

SAINT SAM – Looked really smart on Chase debut but didn’t really beat anything then I know people will say he went too quick the last day but I just don’t think he’s any better than that bare result. Yes he’s only 5 so can improve, but he’s a bit behind some of these on all known form and I couldn’t have him

 

WAR LORD – Rumours he’s going to be ridden for a place in here, that’s the spirit right! Don’t think he can win

 

MAGIC DAZE – Really don’t get the hype around this mare at all. I get the Mares Novice run looks massive from the front, and running behind CONCERTISTA reads well too but the defeat on chase debut to NOBLE YEATS takes some justifying now even if that horse has been held onto a bit so she’s got her work cut out. She was battered at Punchestown and I just think her best isn’t good enough to beat some of these even running below theirs

 

RIVIERE D’ETEL – No doubt improved for a fence and had the benefit of the 4yo and mares allowance for a while too. Lots of racing under her belt makes me feel for this season she’s going to plateau and regardless of peoples views on the race, she was beaten at Leoprdstown. She’d had two runs before the Fred Winter here last season, she ran OK that day, but I just don’t think she’s up to winning this race but she’s gutsy this season and she’ll try. There will be lots of pace on though and she does jump to the right, she even did over hurdles

 

Summary

I really think the winner comes from one of three in here; EDWARDSTONE, BLUE LORD & HAUT EN COULEURS. The former I think probably deserves to be favourite, but he just looks like he’s there for the taking and I don’t trust his British form is quite as good as it might appear. BLUE LORD can still improve and I’m hoping he does because he probably needs to but I don’t see RIVIERE D’ETEL reversing the form at all round here. HAUT EN COULEURS I think would have been the best hurdler in the field had he run over them again this season, and I think if any 5yo is going to win this Arkle and buck the trends it’s him. I do worry about his jumping though and that’s enough to put me off him with any degree of confidence, but I’ve backed BLUE LORD and I’ve chucked a couple of quid on HAUT too

 

Selection - BLUE LORD

Potential Danger – HAUT EN COULEURS

 

 

ULTIMTA HANDICAP CHASE

 

FRODON – Last handicap win came off this mark of 164 and has notched up two Grade 1’s and a Grade 2 since. 14 spins round this track including 6 wins and 2 places on top of that. Probably doesn’t look the same force anymore, been on the go Chasing since a 4 yo (fell in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at MIGHT BITE) and while he’d be a great winner of the race, I can’t have him

LOSTINTRANSLATION – Can’t really believe I’m writing this to say he’s making his handicap debut off 155, carrying just 11 stone 3 and he’s a 20/1 poke. This horse who two seasons ago was 3^rd in a Gold Cup, only 1 and half lengths off AL BOUM PHOTO. OK, so I understand he’s not the same horse now, but you can stick a link through last season, ignore his last two runs (forgiving aren’t I) and then you have him winning  a Grade 2 on Good ground. Now that is the key to this horse. He loves this track, was second in the JLT, (ok both that an the Gold Cup 3^rd are on the new course) so while it’s a leap of faith with him, and I don’t really like backing anything out of the Ascot Chase race, he’s just too big a price to ignore but I do accept that he could completely be gone now and just flop so maybe keep the faith until Aintree (face palm I know, but he’ll be retired soon so don’t worry)

DOES HE KNOW – 5 times round here and 2 wins a second and a 5^th behind BOB OLINGER so that’s a great start. All those runs on this Old Course too. Won the REYNOLDSTOWN at Ascot which was in bad ground so stamina not an issue, but I can’t believe he can win off a mark of 152. A Handicap winner at the  Cheltenham Festival needs to have a few pounds at least up there sleeves but I can’t see it with him. I’ve no doubt he’ll be there abouts though, so one for the pools I think

BEN DUNDEE – Last seen in the Paddy power Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas when a good second to SCHOOL BOY HOURS. Only 1lb higher than his Irish Mark but not sure he wants this extra trip. Was 5^th in the Plate in 2020 under Davy Russell

NOBLE YEATS – Horse Jamie and I talked about very early in the season when they tried to get him in a 0-140 Handicap Chase in Ireland when he was given a mark of 142. Dropped back to 2m after, again I think to try and get in under 140 but was only dropped 1lb after when well beaten at Christmas when fancied. That day Emmet used Derek O’Connor which wouldn’t be the strongest booking and more the comments suggested it was just as he was teaching him in the race. Massive run in the Towton when beaten 5.5 lengths by AHOY SENOR in receipt of 5lbs, but UK mark of 147 I think underestimates him but is warranted on what he’s shown chasing recently. Go back to his Chase debut in October when he beaten GABYNAKO over 2m 2 and ½ who has now been supplemented for the Arkle and I think you’ll realise the Horse has more under the bonnet than they’ve let on. He’s been sold to the Waley-Cohens with a National Entry and this is a great race to go into that

FLOUEUR – Beautifully commentated that he ‘jumped like a bag of hammer’ when winning is penultimate start when rated 136 in Ireland. Now up to 141, last seen in a Grand National Trial at Punchestown when giving DEATH DUTY 2lbs and was 7l behind. Same terms today, did run well in the Martin Pipe last year when I put him up at a price. He’s definitely more than 3lbs better over fences, but those jumps have got to improve and I don’t think he’ll get away with it here. Gainford always a good booking, but he was the Jockey when he won, and jumped like those hammers albeit that was really his only mistake and he still one the race

FOXY JACKS – Stamina to prove really and career high mark now. Jumps to the right a bit too

DOCTOR DUFFY – Yet to prove he’s worthy of his Chase mark after a big hike in 2020 following a win off 135 but stays all day and wasn’t really out of it the last day when unseating at 50/1 under today’s jockey. Interesting at least at a bigger price especially as they’ve been hurdling with him this season until that last run

TEA CLIPPER – First time Cheek Pieces and fresh from a Wind Op this lad had a nice start to the season at Chepstow but has been underwhelming since. Stepped up to 3m at Aintree last season over hurdles with Rachel Blackmore on  board when 3^rd to a well backed Stuart Edmonds horse and I do think the trip is key to him. Tom Lacey has been having some big winners this season, Welsh Champion Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle to name two, so while it’s brave to suggest he’s been plotted for this, he ran well in behind HEAVEN HELP US in the Coral Cup last year, and really should be better than his current mark of 145. Sometimes doesn’t travel so well in his races which is the concern here, but Aintree after could be interesting as well

DEATH DUTY – 11yo who never really fulfilled his promise and is a well known mudlark. Dropped 1lb from his Irish Mark but twice ran here and underwhelmed. Both those runs were on the new course, but hard to think he’s got much up his sleeve and opposable at the price I think

FANTASTIKAS – 144 rated now and a last time out winner. Third in the Dipper behind L’Homme Presse on new years day here but he’s another I just don’t believe is hiding lots more. Similar to DOES HE KNOW, using THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE who is now rated 152, this lad was well beaten by him at Doncaster in receipt of 3lbs, plus got 8lbs over hurdles from him and still couldn’t win. Only once outside the first three, I know he’s popular but he’s not for me

VINTAGE CLOUDS – Last years winner who is the trend pick. 1lb Higher than 12 months ago, had a steady enough prep run last month after a Wind Op, but he is 12 now and this looks like a race where loads have cases to be made for them

RAPPER – Won the last twice and up 9lbs for those wins. Hasn’t really ever beaten anything of note and was miles back in the Pertemps off a 9lb lower mark. Fences may have improved him, but not enough for me to be interested here

DISCORDANTLY – Made a case for this horse last year in the race when he didn’t run bad in 6^th but disappointed me as I thought he’d go close. Spiralled off the boil since but I’m forgiving then he wont just over a week ago in first time cheekpieces. Essentially gets in here off his Irish mark as carries a 5lb penalty but it’s a long time since he chucked in decent back to back efforts but I just couldn’t completely rule him out now only 1lb higher than last year and still only 8

GRUMPY CHARLEY – Easily won a Class 3 handicap chase off 137 and now 4lbs higher. Hard to think that’s a lenient mark in this company and stamina not assured

KILTEALY BRIGGS – I liked this horse and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him but I once thought he wanted a trip however now I don’t think he really does. This mark is no gimme in this company, and while the owners sponsor the race and will fancy their chances, I just don’t think he wants this test. That said, he underwhelmed in the Plate last season and it’s probably that this just isn’t his course either

FULL BACK – Another horse I like, I backed him here in January when he was ridden like the world had been told to back him. Not sure he can do the same here off a 6lb higher mark and was well beaten in the Hennessy. Last run was sandwiched between a 159 and a 150 rated horse not getting much weight so that’s the stand out reason you could fancy him. Not ruled out, but just don’t think he’s tons up his sleeve like that form might suggest

CORACH RAMBLER – I love this horse. He’s my idea of the winner for this race a while out and I’m so pleased he’s going to run. The Reynoldstown was a long was out when he fell, but sent off favourite that day I think he’d have won. DOES HE KNOW gave him 3lb that day and now he gets 12lb from him. Won here in December when lots went wrong. Quirky horse, tried to pull himself up at Aintree early this season, but I do think he has more to come, the one concern is how he jumps and travels isn’t ideal for a big field race like this

RUN TO MILAN – Jumping has cost this horse more wins, but in theory he’s on an OK mark of 138. That bad jumping is a concern in here, he is a 10yo despite being lightly raced and has never been round here. Won’t get things to himself up front, but it can get into a rhythm he’s probably overpriced

OUR POWER – 2lbs out the handicap but that’s doable and was ridden quietly enough at Kempton the last day to suggest they had one eye on this race. Pulled up in last years Coral Cup but has since moved yards and seems to be back in better form

ONE MORE FLEURIE – 3lbs out the handicap and has struggled since going up from 128 to 138 which he effectively runs off here again

BELARGUS – 3lbs out the handicap and fell on his last chase start. Has a confidence booster at Haydock over hurdles since but untested at this trip and flat bred

OSCAR ELITE – Thought he’d be the Kim Muir winner, but they took him out of that, he’s 4lb out the handicap here which won’t help. Harry Codben is 0 from 1 on him but they’ve raced this season plenty at the track so probably had one eye on the festival but he’s not the stable first string even though I think he’s a nice horse

GERICAULT ROQUE – 5lbs out the handicap which makes this very hard to my eye but connections have won this before with UN TEMPS POUR TOUT and considering he’s only 6, he’s a rarity in this race. Mark off 133 is doable, the 5lbs out the handicap probably negates the extra he has in hand, or at least most of it so I’m sure they’ll try, but he’s a long future ahead so I think they’ll mind him

 

Summary

Wide open competitive handicap so really your guess is as good, if not better than mine here. I can genuinely see plenty running well as you’ll have taken from my runner comments. The more obvious ones to me would be NOBLE YEATS & CORACH RAMBLER with FLOUEUR, LOSTINTRANSLATION & DISCORDANTLY all possible party poopers to that duo. DOCTOR DUFFY at a huge price could outrun those odds. Personally I’ll play a few in here, in block doubles with handicaps later in the week and I’ll have plenty of cover in the place and win pools on this one too

 

Selection - CORACH RAMBLER

Lively Outsider  - DOCTOR DUFFY

 

CHAMPION HURDLE

 

ADAGIO – 5yo sporting a first time tongue tie here. Good run in the Greatwood off 147 and wasn’t disgraced on his comeback run art Wincanton which should put him spot on for this. No disguise really that this is a much harder task, he was second best in the G1 Juveniles in the spring over here too, so while he may have progressed, he’s not won on any of his last 4 starts, the last two of those a handicap and a Grade 2. The reality is he’s probably not going to be up to this just yet, but he’s rarely far away and yet to be outside the first 2 so EW players or place only bettors will likely want to keep him on side given he’s around a 20/1 poke

APPRECIATE IT – Really was a monster performance in the Supreme here last year regardless of how deep the race might have been. He’s looked a staying chaser from his bumper days, but he’s simply a horse with a massive engine, but clearly has his frailties too. He would have been over fences this season had he not met with a setback, likely an ARKLE horse, but let’s not forget BUVEUR D’AIR did abort chasing to win this race so it’s doable. The one thing that’s a much harder historical trend to bust is coming here to win a Champion Hurdle on your first start in Open company. Yes Willie did it with PENHILL in the Stayers, and maybe bar HONEYSUCKLE this isn’t a vintage Champion Hurdle, but I do think we have a number of horses in here who could run to a mark in the 160’s. He’s giving the mare 7lbs like they all are but he’s the one who feels like he could topple her. Most of that feel though comes from the unknown, because plenty in this field have shown this season they can’t touch her. 10 runners means you might get some 4 places offers out there, he’s a likely scummy EW bet to nothing, but I do fear that approach, simply because some of the horses he had behind don’t really look that good this season. I don’t think I can sway anyone’s opinion one way or the other on this lad and I wouldn’t want to. Could he win, MAYBE, do I think he’ll win, NO

GLORY AND FORTUNE – Lots to find on official figures despite the Betfair Hurdle win and G1 second in the Christmas Hurdle being really good runs. 9.5 lengths behind ADAGIO in the Greatwood and now 5lbs worse off, enough said

NOT SO SLEEPY – Still shocked he dead heated that Fighting Fifth earlier this season. Well beaten after, was 13l behind HONEYSUCKLE in this last year and I just can’t have him

SAINT ROI – Good winner of the County in 2020 and was hyped as the one to beat HONEY last year but he never made it here after some lacklustre efforts in open company. Two spins this season suggest he’s still a way off Grade 1 level and I think he’ll be chasing next term

TEAHUPOO – Very lightly raced 5yo, come in here off the right kind of approach I think, having running in two G3’s and one G2 since stepping outside Juvenile Company. Similar approach to ESPOIR D’ALLEN and I thought he was very impressive at Gowran in the Red Mills. Still a fact that he’s not really beaten much, and he was beaten by JEFF KIDDER at Fairyhouse last season so likely he’s not up to this yet, probably wants further soon too, but I think he’ll run well and can hit that OR of 162 again this season

TOMMY’S OSCAR – Great story for connections but he can’t win a Champion Hurdle. Appreciate how dismissive that is, but he beat GLOBAL CITIZEN by 5 lengths at Haydock, a 136 rated horse who was 15 lengths behind GOSHEN and ADAGIO in receipt of weight

ZANAHIYR – I think he should have won the Triumph last year, his race was marked early on, but then class should prevail shouldn’t it. He was also behind JEFF KIDDER after like TEAHUPOO. Nice start this season in a Grade 2 then again put up a couple of nice runs behind SHARJAH so the dream I think was still alive. 6.5 lengths behind HONEYSUCKLE at the DRF but it could have been more. What I will say is, he clattered the first, well he made a hash of it anyway then his jumping lacked fluency after. Now he’s always jumped pretty well before that so it was very unlike him and I’m pleased they’ve chucked some Cheek-Pieces on him. What I was impressed with that day, was how he stayed on and ECHOES IN RAIN didn’t go by him. Now I’m sure some will argue she didn’t go by, as opposed to he held her off, but let’s just trust they both were trying, I think to make the mistakes he did and to see his race out like that was fairly impressive. I’m shocked he’s as big as 20/1 really, and he’s 33/1 on the machine

EPATANTE – 9.5 lengths behind HONEYSUCKLE last season then 12.5 behind at Punchestown. She’s had back surgery and she’s 2 from 2 this season (well 1 and a half as she dead heated in the Fighting Fifth) but I don’t really think that form is any good in the context of a Champion Hurdle. Only once outside the first 3, but I do think this years race is better than the last two she’s run in despite there being no SHARJAH so she’s not for me at all

HONEYSUCKLE – I’m definitely in the camp of ‘I don’t think she’s unbeatable’ but she really does look as good as ever this season, arguably better than ever but I do just wish she’d come up against SHARJAH this season as I think he’s the real barometer as opposed to the likes of RONALD PUMP. Her RPR in the Irish Champion Hurdle was 4 spots lower than last year, although she was much better in the Hatton’s Grace. Clearly with the 7lb allowance she’s a deserving favourite, but I do think this is nearing the beginning of the end for her. She’s likely going to win this, I wouldn’t put anyone off her, I couldn’t could I, and tbh the 4/6 about her isn’t terrible either

 

Summary

HONEYSUCKLE wins this bar incident or an excuse and as final line on her states, I don’t think the 4/6 about her is a bad price really (she had been as short as 1/2). APPRECIATE IT & ZANAHIYR are the only two I could see winning this is she falters, ones a 4/1 poke and ones a 20/1 poke (33/1 on the machine) so I’ll be playing the latter in the place market, and given the final field of 10 we might even get some 4 places about it. ADAGIO will more behind than in front, TEAHUPOO too but outside that I can’t have the remainder at all

Selection - HONEYSUCKLE

Lively Outsider - ZANAHIYR

 

MARES HURDLE

 

BURNING VICTORY – She’s a mare I mentioned in one of the first Antepost Insight videos over on YouTube this season when she was a 33/1 poke but regardless of that plug, he’s got a chance. She’s not straight forward but they do think a lot of her and she’s capable

ECHOES IN RAIN – Glad they’ve come here given she’s joint top rated and her mark isn’t exactly workable in a handicap round here. She is hard to settle, I appreciate people say she won’t stay but I don’t think there’s enough to doubt her ability to stay other than her temperament. She ran a big race in the Irish Champion Hurdle where I think she travelled quite nicely. I’d love if Patrick let her go in this but I appreciate she’s hard to trust

HEAVEN HELP US – Won the Coral Cup last year off 138 by 9 lengths. That line of form alone gives her a chance but this is competitive and I’m not sure she’d quite the same mare this time round. Danny Mullins is 1 from 12 but the win came here in a Maiden hurdle on the old course

INDEFATIGABLE – Pleased they’ve come here, she’s a mare I’ve liked for a long time. She was 4^th in this last year on soft ground which does suit but I think they’ll go quicker this year than last and that will suit her. Gave MARTELLO SKY 5lbs and only went down by a nk yet she’s twice the price and won the Martin Pipe here back in 2020 off an OR of 145 and I think she’s better now

MARIE’S ROCK – Not sure she’s suited by this track, looks a bit of flat track type. Middle trip does suit but a bit to find for me

MARTELLO SKY – Smashed in the betting at Aintree back in November when pretty poor really although I’d argue she rant to form. Same since is true too and I just don’t think she’s up to this

MRS MILNER – Pertemps winner last year off 134 and second in a Listed hurdle here on the old course too but again over 3m. Not sure they is enough of a test for her personally but the race could be run to suit stayers

NADA TO PRADA – Not good enough

QUEENS BROOK – The ‘eye-catcher’ behind BURNING VICTORY the last day but I’m not sure I get no board with horses whose best runs come in defeat. CIEL DE NIEGE has made her penultimate win look good since chasing though and Gordon is bullish so make of that what you will

STORMY IRELAND – Wouldn’t have won the Relkeel here on New Years Day but no shame if she had been beaten. Was used in the HONEYSUCKLE and BENIE race two years ago and was second the year before when BENIE tipped up Paul TOWNEND rides but I’m just not sure she can do it

TELMESOMETHINGGIRL – Impressive last year in the Mares Novice and progressive this season with the race in mind. One of only a few who should be improving past her current mark so you can see why she’s favourite but there’s an element of trust being taken in that

WESTERN VICTORY – Proven not good enough

 

Summary

Really feels like a race where you could run it a few times and get a few different results. I’d say TELMESOMETHINGGIRL deserves to be favourite, I can half see QUEENS BROOK appeal and of course Paul choosing STORMY is a logical choice. I do think BURNING VICTORY will run a big race, but I’m hoping ECHOES IN RAIN back against her own will just show her class. We’ve seen in the past how many mares seem to run better in their own company and this will be the first time she’s done so for Willie Mullins. I have issue with a few in the middle order but I think INDEFATIGABLE is overpriced so she’s my lively outsider

 

Selection – ECHOES IN RAIN

Lively Outsider – INDEFATIGABLE

 

FRED WINTER

 

PETIT TONNERRE – One run for Jonjo O’Neill after three runs in France (two over hurdles) and only 14lbs higher than his French RPR on his last start where I’ve mentioned that 18 is about ok. Won with plenty in hand, up 3lbs and probably more to come

THE TIDE TURNS – Ex flat all weather runner who has had three spins over hurdles for Gordon Elliott. Won on debut but 9lbs worse off with the runner up. Tried in Graded races since, including an Open Grade 3 the last day. Got to around 8 lengths of VAUBAN at the DRF which in theory means he’s probably a few pounds up his sleeve. First time tongue tie here to unlock a bit more improvement

BRAZIL – Ex flat peaked at 90 now had 4 runs for Padraig Roche and JP. Bolted up the last day no rated 133, previously was 7.25 lengths behind THE TIDE TURNS and yet runs off level weights

DOCTOR CHURCHILL – 70 rated flat horse, 5 spins for Gordon since including when beating CHAMPION GREEN by 2.5 lengths getting 3lbs. Worse off here now and beaten favourite in a handicap since so probably held

EBASARI – Another ex flat horse running for Gordon Elliott here. Three spins, including when beating ADAMANTLY CHOSEN on hurdle bow in receipt of 13lbs but that horse is now rated 142. This lads mark of 131 looks about right and you need a bit in a race like this

BRITZKA – Fresh here after a wind op and another ex flat Gordon runner who won a maiden hurdle on debut. Gave a stone a beating to that horse who is rated 116 so literal line there make this 130 look ok. Twice was ‘poor’ after but maybe by design but then the tongue tie went on and the wind op may suggest not all is well

BELL EX ONE – Having his debut for Paul Nicholls and while not impressive in winning two of his three hurdle races he beat SEA SESSION giving him 13lbs but comes here only giving him 5

GAELIC WARRIOR – Head over and look at my blog on this horse if you want to know why, but he’s 18lbs well in to my book so he just wins - Cheltmental: GAELIC WARRIOR - HACK UP OR PULL UP?

WHITE PEPPER – 128 rated filly who was behind SEA SESSIONS so work cut out to reverse that on these terms and I’m not sure she’s got much more in the locker after 6 hurdle spins

HMS SEAHORSE – 86 rated on the flat and a rare improving hurdler. Behind PIED PIPER on debut then behind THE TIDE TURNS before winning at odds on the last day. 9lb swing with THE TIDE TURNS for a 2.75 length defeat, so you can see why he’s popular, but could that knock the depth the THE TIDE TURNS rather than boost this lad?

PRAIRIE DANCER – Yet to win over hurdles and form ties with WHITE PEPPER so not sure he’s got in easy here

FEIGH – 5 runs over hurdles for Willie Mullins and this filly was thought highly enough to run in a Grade 3 back in November although another with those form ties with WHITE PEPPER and SEA SESSIONS and I think they’re all exposed now

IBERIQUE DU SEUIL – Chuck this one in with the WHITE PEPPER bunch form. Doesn’t scream out they’re well treated

SAINT SEGAL – Three runs for Jane Williams including once behind PORTICELLO in the G1 Finale. His mark of 126 could be alright and the race he’s won since didn’t really teach us anything. Ordinarily he’s interesting

CHAMPION GREEN – 90 Rated flat horse who might look like he’s been ridden for a mark in his 4 hurdles runs, but he might just be a traveller. Hood and tongue tie the last day to win but beat nothing. Rachel Blackmore an interesting booking though if not the most obvious JP pairing

SEA SESSIONS – already had more mentions that most but her form looks exposed enough to say her mark is just fair

MILLDAM – 132 would be the French mark I’d expect so he’s 7lbs well in on that but again read my article of GAELIC WARRIOR and you’ll see the gulf between these two

DOCTOR BROWN BEAR – First run for Martin Brassil who had 5 runs with no wins for Brendan Duke before. At the very least he’s interesting but FIEGH battered him on his hurdle debut getting 7lbs and they’re off levels now so not for me and finishes tamely in his races

TOO FRIENDLY  - Dan Skelton runner who was 88 on the flat and won his first two starts over hurdles including a class 2. Beaten in a Grade 2 after by KNIGHT SALUTE which isn’t bad form in the scheme of this race and capable of a good run from this mark. Just maybe not the potential class of some in here but has the wind op and a similar type to KING D’ARGENT how ran a good 4^th for the yard in 2019

FOREVER WILLIAM – 3 spins over hurdles but well held the last twice albeit but two Triumph chances. Wears a first time visor but that needs to bring about some improvement and more

SWINGING LONDON – Two pounds worse off now with IBERIQUE DU SEUIL but won since on stable debut beating a 109 horse in receipt of 12 lbs

SKYCUTTER – Second to PORTICELLO at Haydock but well behind and was 30 back in the Finale. Win his maiden hurdle but beat a now 107 rated horse so not for me

 

Summary

I’ve made myself clear on GAELIC WARRIOR, he’s thrown in and I’ve done the work on that myself, so the fact connections are just as bullish is a bonus. Ordinarily THE TIDE TURNS, PETIT TONNERRE, SAINT SEGAL & TOO FRIENDLY would interest me but the first is very well found in the market and I really don’t think they can beat GAELIC WARRIOR

Selection – GAELIC WARRIOR

Lively Outsider – TOO FRIENDLY

 

NH CHASE

 

BEATTHEBULLET – Rank outsider rated just 126 so on level terms he’s over 2 stone away from what’s required. Stays, but not at this level

 

BRAESIDE – Fits the bill for the type of horse who will be suited to this race. Second season novice and picked up a decent enough race in the Cork National over 3m4f so while he’s been a bit short of the class required in the last few runs on first appearance, and Jamie Codd is riding for Gigginstown, I don’t think he’s without a chance. The run the last day in the Ten Up Novices chase he wasn’t really at the races. That’s a concern and he did pull up on his penultimate start but prior he ran a decent race following that Cork National win, when probably an unlucky 4^th of 28 after suffering hampering at the very first flight. Gave SCHOOL BOY HOURS 10lbs that day who’s not unfancied in the Kim Muir off 142 later this week, so he’s worthy of his mark of 148 right now despite those last two efforts and I think he’s a player for sure

ONTHEROPES – Another who looked the type for this race being a novice from another season, in fact started chasing in 2019 and won first race over fences in the Munster National back in October. Only ever had the one spin over hurdles so always about the larger obstacles with him but I’m less enthused to say he’s worthy of his OR of 152, although again, he’s not going to be the biggest shock if he were to run well with the tongue-tie now applied alongside the Cheekpieces

PATS FANCY – Not so much the obvious profile for the race, a much improved horse for a fence and there are bits of form from this season that in context can read quite well. For me, he beat a non stayer in IMPERIAL ALCAZAR at Chepstow, and while he was facing BRAVEMANGAME the last day at Newbury, I wasn’t that impressed with the winner so I’d also crab this horse a little. He was miles behind the good 3 mile hurdlers last season (56 in the Albert Bartlett and 80 behind AHOY SENOR at Aintree). This stamina trip might help bridge the class gap, but I’m just not sold on him, although we’ve said before, it’s not always the classy horse that wins this and this has been the plan for a while from the yard

RUN WILD FRED – 5 seconds from his 10 chase starts, but as mentioned with a couple already in here, he fitted the profile of the type for this race, hailing from Elliott, being a dour stayer and a second season novice. Run in the Irish National last season was as good a piece of form as anything in here, if not better, solid run in behind CAPE GENTLEMAN on seasonal debut over a trip too short, emphatic win after in a Handicap off 145 and although he was a beaten favourite the last day in a Grade 1, it was no shame in defeat having FURY ROAD in front who has always threatened to be a top class 3 miler, plus both VANILLIER & ONTHEROPES were well behind. Jamie Codd rides for Gigginstown in this race for the second time in the last 10 years, I think that’s a huge positive and vote of confidence, especially as Gordon will want winners this year more than ever. Deserves to be favourite I think and while the comment has already been said by me that it’s not always the classiest horse to win this race, he is the highest rated at this point, although someone like STATTLER might end up a better horse in the future

STATTLER – Beaten favourite here in the Albert Bartlett last year, and a fairly plodder like finish that day so it was a little surprising how strong he was in the finish on Chasing debut over 2m5f when a ready winner. The runner up did little for the form but the third doesn’t make it look bad. He won again next time out with VANILLIER in behind but was pressed by FAROUK D’ALENE who will be RSA bound I think, and that’s possibly where I think this lad should have been racing. Ronnie Bartlett (owner) likes this race but I think his race performances to date and his breeding suggest this trip is a big risk, and I’m not sure it’s really what he wants. We’ve got National winners in here and horses who relish the distance but he’s still unproven to me so he looks short enough but I do think he’s probably the best 3 miler in here. He is unexposed though, jumps well in the main, especially for a horse who has only two runs over fences under his belt so there’s reasons to believe he can be competitive at least

VANILLIER – Not very inspiring in his last couple of runs, but I will say that the last day he was conceding weight to the field so he really wasn’t likely to be involved at the business end. Penultimate start was behind RUN WILD FRED when FURY ROAD won and he just wasn’t really put into the race. First start over fences came at a trip too short and duly dotted up the time after where SIXSHOOTER lost his life. Now I’m a big fan of that horse, I’d backed him that day, but I do think VANILLIER was still going to win. Jumping isn’t as bad as people are making out. Gavin Cromwell has always said this is the race for him and while Albert Bartlett winners get a bad press, and don’t always progress, I like the race and he’s definitely got a chance. Should he be the price he is based on form alone, absolutely not. But maybe there’s a message inside that, because despite people knocking him, he’s clearly got his supporters otherwise he’d be drifting to near double figures, which is where he probably should be priced on what he’s done this season

 

Summary

Really does look a decent and competitive race, it’s interesting too because no matter how many times you watch replays, or try and imagine how the race will pan out, there is so much unknown here in terms of what some of these horses are truly capable of, and this distance is a question mark for a few too. RUN WILD FRED is the most solid option on form I think, he’s also the highest rated, he’s trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Jamie Codd. I personally think he should be a sub 2/1 favourite so there’s arguably still some juice in his price. STATTLER for me is the best 3 miler, but this isn’t 3 miles and I’m really not convinced he wants this trip so for that reason he’s a bit short for me. Although who am I to question Willie and Patrick in the ‘not quite 4 miler’.

VANILLIER is popular more for the ‘plot’ aspect than what he’s done on the course. I don’t mind his jumping, I think he’ll like the test but he’s too short really to be punting, although as mentioned, that’s probably a strong positive in that plenty must like him to keep the price down.

BRAESIDE, PATS FANCY & ONTHEROPES fall into the second bucket I think, where they wouldn’t surprise you if they won, but they’re probably susceptible to the better horses. ONTHEROPES OR puts him in the top 3 horses, but I’m just not sure he warrants that mark, although the trip will suit and maybe the tongue-tie is what’s been needed since the Munster National win but it does feel a bit like it’s just trial and error now to excuse his recent form

 

Selection – RUN WILD FRED