TURNERS
It’s a match, and with BOB OLINGER’S jumping suggestive that
he’ll not scale the heights over bigger obstacles he did over hurdles means I
want to take him on. This ground won’t be an issue to either but we know the
spring ground seemed to suit BOB last year. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS I think will
break his heart from the front and I don’t see him being caught
PERTEMPS
Loads of chances in here and it's such a plotty race I have very small view in it. I liked PILEON and moreso THE COB now the rains comes, he's around a 50/1 chance. WINTER FOG was one I was put onto when the weights came out
RYANAIR CHASE
ALLAHO deserves to be the price he is and I can’t see him
beat. When looking for alternatives I think there’s something to like about
plenty so I’ll leave my thoughts there
STAYERS’ HURDLE
CHAMP – Undoubtably has ability but two RPR’s of 170, one of
165 when winning the Long Walk, but other than that he’s all sub 160’s so on
balance, he’s more potential than ability and he’s 10 now. Crimson Embers won
in 1986 as an 11yo but never been a 10yo winner
FLOORING PORTER – Known to be a bit temperamental, including
his trainer worrying about there being no rail throughout here because he
thought he needed one before winning this 12 months ago. Looks every bit as
good this season an posting progressive ratings. He’s the one to beat for sure
HOME BY THE LEE – Nice horse but just not up to this
KLASSICAL DREAM – Seriously talented horse on his day and
the prelims of the Supreme weren’t enough to get him beat. That’s still a minor
worry with him, and he threw in a howler the last day but they weren’t too hard
on him. I was quite impressed at Leopardstown at Christmas how he went so quick
then took a bit of a breather and picked up again. This course may sap his
stamina though and he won’t get such an easy lead this time round. I think he’s
vulnerable to a stronger stayer but chance is there for all to see
KOSHARI – Would be a minor miracle if he won this, 10yo plus
about a stone below what it might take
LISNAGAR OSCAR – Runs plenty of good looking races but even
when landing this race his peak RPR is 159 so he’s not for me
PAISLEY PARK – Clearly a very good horse on his day, but not
always at his best these days and he used to be pretty consistent. 10yo too
like CHAMP and I think his days are gone at the top table
SONG FOR SOMEONE – Certainly interesting at this trip but
I’m not sure it’s what he wants and does have a chuck to find on figures. At
least the unknown of the trip could help bring improvement as something needs
to change to do so, he’ll have his fans at the price and a not every horse
shorter than him is assured to run their true race
THYME HILL – Don’t think we’ve seen the best of this horse
but he’s posted 4 RPR’s in the 160’s with a flop in France in between. Run at
Ascot was good and he’ll come on from that. Cannot see him outside the first
three, he’s straightforward too, so he’s got a proper chance
ROYAL KAHALA – gets the mares allowance and she’s
progressive I just don’t think her win the last day is really worth anything.
Bit to find for me, priced a bit shorter than she should be but only ever
outside the first 2 when finishing lame here last year in the Mares’ Novice
Summary
Probably not giving the mare enough respect in here but she
has to improve to land this. CHAMP & PAISLEY I like, but have to drawn the
line with both as their so inconsistent and both 10 too. KLASSICAL DREAM is
capable but has his risks attached, both temperament and stamina and while
FLOORING PORTER still has a little glow around him about his head, I trust him
much more and he won this 12 months ago. THYME HILL might not be the best horse
in the race if they all showed up firing, but he might have a little bit more
to come and he’s rock solid to fill the frame. SONG FOR SOMEONE at 50/1 is
interesting because he probably ought to be half that price so it’s a ‘value’
thing really more than solid case
Selection – FLOORING PORTER
PLATE
HARDLINE – Sent off 10/3 favourite in the 2019 arkle when
well beaten. Cheekpieces applied now and pulled up on his penultimate start in
his first open chase handicap. That was under todays jockey though, and they
paired u p in a Novice Handicap chase back in 2019 off a similar mark when
second to REAL STEEL. Ran well enough for a long way on his last start and he’s
interesting
SIMPLY THE BETTS – Won this two years ago off a 6lb lower
mark and doesn’t look a better course these days. Was second here on new years
day off a 2lb lower mark so not without a chance has two wins and a second over
Course and Distance so you can forgive his last run where the trip was too far
and arguably the yard weren’t firing either
PISTOL WHIPPED – Pulled up and bled the last day, most and
better form comes on good ground
IMPERIAL ALCAZAR – drop back this trip was the key the last
day and beaten a couple of OK types on soft before. Mark looks too high for me
now, but I said the same the last day. Can’t believe he’s this short a price
and the 8lb rise for beating a non stayer and hard breather BEAKSTOWN seems
harsh to me
FUSIL RAFFLES – I said at the start of last season I hoped
he’d come here, maybe if he didn’t go up against CHANTRY HOUSE he might have
landed this but he comes here 3lbs lower but despite winning this season his
form is questionable at 3m. Likes better ground but it’s not as essential as
you might be led to believe and this trip is bang on form him. 4 length 4th
back in December over course and distance off a 3lb higher mark so I think he’s
got a monster chance. Seems like he’s been around forever but just remember
he’s only just turned 7 (technically not 7 until May) so there’s likely more to
come
WISHING AND HOPING – 12yo who gets a weight swing from the
favourite but pulled up in the Foxhunters here last year so this doesn’t look
achievable
CAVALRY MASTER – Notched up a 4 timer from April to July
last year then a bit exposed over 3m twice after. Kept fresh since December
though, dropped back in trip and while he has a bit to prove in Handicap
company has a tongue tie and cheek pieces applied with Rachel on board.
Interesting
COOLE CODY – 11yo who won over course and distance this
season off a 2lb lower mark before being sent off favourite twice over course
and distance after although well beaten. Deserves a go in here and can place
but held for win purposes. Was 4th in this last year behind THE
SHUNTER off 2lb lower mark
SCHIEHALLION MUNRO – Nothern raider and I’m sure the marks
given for those races don’t carry down here. Not for me
GRAND PARADIS – Half brother to BOB AND CO so for the
sibling winning chance I hope he doesn’t land this. Not sure he’s done enough
over fences to justify this 145 rating but was favourite for the Martin Pipe
last season when he had to miss the festival off a similar number. I think he
wants a trip and might just be next years NH CHASE horse. Maybe has a chance,
but doesn’t look to be well in to me
STOLEN SILVER – Better form at 2m but looked like he wanted
this trip for his previous yard too so I’m happy to ignore the last run to an
extent. Bits of his 2m form suggest he can win off this mark so worth a second
look although he’s got a mixed record round here, UR and PU with a second to
CHANTRY HOUSE over hurdles
PRESENTANDCOUNTING – Good ground merchant and a bit buzzy,
couldn’t have him at all
THE GLANCING QUEEN – Has in and out form and I’m a fan of
hers. The Dipper run could look nice if L’HOMME PRESSE wins the RSA and she’s
down a 1lb from that. OSCAR ELITE franked the form somewhat but there’s a
niggle in me that the one in front and 3 behind her are all running over 3m now
whereas she was running at her perfect trip in the Dipper. Chance for all to
see but couldn’t have her at the price
CELEBRE D’ALLEN – 3 from 3 for Hobbs although not sure the
last run is worth much. Owner won this in 2012 and 2014 so he’s interesting,
but another who is short enough considering he’s not thrown into my mind and
this course is very different to Warwick and Haydock
ADRIMEL – All known form on bad ground, pulled up three
times on good to soft. Won the last twice with blinkers but really needs a
significant downpour and even then, I’m not sure this is his track
BORN BY THE SEA – patchy form to say the least but on the
pick of it he has sum OK runs considering he’s off 140 here. Gave DIOL KER 2lbs
and was beaten a nk, now rated 9lbs higher than him, and was 5.75 lengths
behind ASSEMBLE in September over a trip too far in receipt of 9lbs but that
horse is now 17lbs higher than him. I think he’s overpriced despite being quite
punty
FANCY FOUNDATIONS – Not overly sold he’s on a light mark bit
another with bits of form to like, including when beating the ill fated HOI
PALLOI at Hereford in 2020. Connections also have GRAND PARADIS
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES – Impossible to discount as he’s been 3rd
and 6th in this race of lower marks (147,149) and races here off
136. This is his trip, he loves the course too so with a much improved run the
last day under Jack Andrews in a race where all bar on horse traded shorter
than their SP in running so it looked like it was quite a strong race. I think
there’s reasons to be confident and he’s a big price really
SLATE HOUSE – Another I don’t think we’ve ever seen the best
of but hard to keep making excuses for him now and opposable
FIRE AWAY – this is much harder than anything he run in
before and demands a career best effort
CHINWAG – Winner last time out and on his 3rd
last start too, but this is much tougher and wouldn’t look to be up to this
GUY – I’m sure this lad has a bit more ability than he’s
shown. Jumps well when he wants to but another one you couldn’t fancy on form
alone
Summary
Real mixed bag of opinion here and I’m against the first
four in the betting for one reason or another. I do really like the chance of
FUSIL RAFFLES though so he’d be my idea of the winner but he’ll have company on
my betslip. SIMPLY THE BETTS can be excused his last run and is capable of a
bold show off his current mark. SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is 11lbs lower than when 3rd
in this in 2019 and showed enough the last day to make me think he’s still got
it plus his run at Aintree last season off an 8lb higher mark over a trip too
far was very good. STOLEN SILVER has a chance and I think BORN BY THE SEA is
overpriced
Selections – MISTER COFFEY/SPIRITOFTHEGAMES
Lively outsider – BORN BY THE SEA
MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
DINO BLUE looks the worthy favourite to me and I think the
ground will suit her. She’s got a touch of the LAURINA’S about her so I do
expect her to oblige. STATUAIRE I’ve talked about plenty over the season but
she needs good ground so may not even run. MIGHTY BLUE for Jospeh O’Brien was
third in this last year with a wide ride throughout. She’s better than that and
gets some weight from a few here. CONCERTISTA won the race after running in it
the previous year and MIGHTY BLUE at 25/1 is well worth expecting to go close
herself.
Selection - MIGHTY BLUE
KIM MUIR
FRONTAL ASSAULT – Still a novice having run just three times
over fences but came close enough on first and third runs. Not sure a mark of
145 is really justified but Rob James claims 7 which puts him in the mix. A bit
unlucky here last year in the Martin Pipe but he also was well behind in a big
field handicap hurdle in first time blinkers which were blamed
FAKIR D’ALENE – Markedly improved for a fence having only
been a modest hurdler and I’d question if he has it in him to run off 144. Not
for me
AINT THAT A SHAME – Tried against better types in his first
two chase starts and they didn’t hang about hurdling with him. He is an 8yo
though, and has just 6 runs under rules, but the last run just behind CHAMPAGNE
PLATINUM looks ok, I just think he’s a short enough price
JANIKA – November 2019 was the last time he won when landing
the Haldon Gold Cup off of 162. Cleary had issues since and for all the
blinkers may help, it’s a giant leap of faith to back him
CAT TIGER – nice horse, probably handicapped to his peak now
and this is much tougher although he looks a dour stayer, and the horse does
not like to give up. Could see him staying on late in the day, just whether
it’s too late is the question
SCHOOL BOY HOURS – Winner at Christmas in Leopardstown but
the form not really working out. Crying out for this trip and if you go back to
his Novice Chase campaign he’s plenty of form to suggest 142 is a winnable mark
(narrowly behind EKLAT DE RIRE and prior LATESTN EXHIBITION) so he’s got his
chance
ELEGANT ESCAPE – Down to 140 which is not far off where he
started over fences back in 2017. Dissappointed when well backed at Exeter the
last day. Runs in snatches these days so could get too far out of the race but a
chance at a big price if he travels again, but it is a big ask
SMOKING GUN – Plenty of chase experience with 16 runs and
two wins. Stays out the back and tries to pick off his opponents but patches of
form where he’s been more prominent and it’s worked out. Good run at Fairyhouse
the last day, gets in here just 2lbs higher than his Irish mark and looks to
have his chance
MISTER FOGPATCHES – finished top 3 in 8 of his 12 chase
starts and comes here in steady enough form. Really doesn’t jump very well so shows
the engine and class he has to keep running into the places. 3rd in
the Scottish National last spring off an 11lb lower mark, but I’m not sure
rating has much bearing on what this horse will do, and he was in the wrong
place back here in December when COMMODORE sprant clear. I’d give this lad a
leading chance, if he could jump I’d be having the lot on
ALMAZHAR GARDE – This is a big step up in class and ideally
wants the ground quick
MISTER COFFEY – I think you’d struggle to find someone who
thinks this horse has shown us the best he can be, a lot of time has passed now
where you start to question his reliability but he’s shaped like a step up in
trip could be the key to him so this is just that. Novice chaser still being 0
from 3 and on that form he’s got a bit to find, but as I say, he’s capable of
more I think and this new trip could be the answer. He’s interesting and
probably about the right price. Rain will help his chance even though this is a
fresh course today
LORD ACCORD – Better ground his preference and from the
times on Day 1 he’ll be fine even with some rain around. Not sure he’s got a
whole lot up his sleeve though
MINDMADEUP – 11yo who was second here in November and might
have been kept back since considering he’s not just a good ground horse as his
summer runs might suggest. 8lbs higher than that run in November though which
is hard to take when he didn’t even win that race
COME ON TEDDY – 3rd in the Pertemps last year off
a 3lb lower mark and won on chasing debut in a novice handicap chase. Looks to
have been saved for this seince with a Grade 2 run after at this coursr over a
trip too short, then a Novice handicap defeat in January juts a couple of weeks
after the Grade 2, and he made a howler in there. Jumps alright, and considering
he was just outclassed in that Grade 2 the horse just in front of him OSCAR
ELITE ran 3rd in the Ultima a couple of pounds out of the handicap
so there’s lots to like about his chance
OMAR MARETTI – Beat TEDDY on his penultimate start getting
8lbs but as I say the runner up made a howler and they now run off levels. Win
the last day was quite visually impressive but he had ALMAZHAR GARDE in second
who I think would have hated the ground. But this lad is lightly raced under
rules, progressive and relatively unexposed at this trip although confirmed as
a stayer so has his chance
MINT CONDITION – Best of his form over shorter and I’m not
sure Cheekpieces will increase his stamina. That said, his only form on Good To
Soft ground behind WILDE ABOUT OSCAR last March which is strong and he’s been
racing on slower before and since
THE MIGHTY DON – No question marks about his stamina and he
has a few pieces of form to get excited about his current mark, notably beating
ENRILO last season and when close to HAPPYGOLUCKY in another Novice Chase
around here. He has won here too but festival form reads 9th, 8th
and 6th beaten over 60 lengths across those three. Big price though
on balance
GLENLOE – 2018 was done a nose by DELTA WORK in the Pertemps
final but hasn’t had much racing since 2019. Three runs, sent off 11/8
favourite the last day at Punchestown when well beaten but not given too hard a
time. Derek O’Connor jumps ship though which could be telling
ROCCO – This season’s Badger Beer winner off this mark but
was a 40.1 poke that day and been very poor since. Ground won’t be that quick here
CHAMBARD – aiming for a three timer and carries a 5lb
penalty for that last win. Will want and need as much rain as possible
LARRY – Ascot winner on soft off 1lb lower mark and big trip
swings in his next two starts after but his win was with a pulled up favourite
and an ill fated second favourite so he was probably a little lucky that day
RIGHTPLACERIGHTIME – Emmet Mullins knows how to ready a
horse but you’d think Patrick would be on if they fancied him. Only a 7yo and
Maxine O’Sullivan knows how to win here herself. Twice beaten favourite on
these shores, once over hurdle and also over fences, both this season so look
less like a plot job and more of a rogue
POWERSTONE PARK – Travels well in his races but this is a
big step up in class from a Class 3 at Hereford on good ground
RED INFANTRY – 12yo but at least comes here on the back of a
promising run. Has course experience but not the most encouraging
Summary
Yet another handicap where I’ll say plenty in with chances
but less so than some earlier this week. SCHOOL BOY HOURS & SMOKING GUN are
the two in single figures I’d have preference for but I’d give MISTER
FOGPATCHES massive chance too and he’s a double figure price currently. MISTER
COFFEY has a good few quid on him but it’s less form and more feeling with him.
COME ON TEDDY should go well and THE MIGHTY DON is grossly overpriced in my
opinion
Selection – MISTER FOGPATCHES
Lively Outsider – THE MIGHTY DON
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