CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 1 - EVERY RUNNER, EVERY RACE

 

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

 

BRING ON THE NIGHT – Maiden Hurdle winner, did it well and registered an RPR of 135 which really is a good bit short of this standard. Lacks the experience, Flat Bred and the horses he beat on debut, regardless of how easy he did it, have no substance in their prior form. Very hard to make any case for him here other than he’s Willie Mullins

 

CONSTITUTION HILL – Two hurdle wins and both in great fashion, both at Sandown and on varying ground too. Posted 148 and 152 RPR’s respectively, visually looks a proper horse in the right kind of mould, settles, travels, picks up when asked and looks very straightforward. Will want a trip in time but then most Supreme horses do, he’s a Grade 1 winner and should be favourite for the race

 

DYSART DYNAMO – I really like this lad. I was so taken by his debut over hurdles where he was given an RPR of 135 but I thought it was better than that. Dotted up in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer where he just looked so effortless again, but he was going a proper pace and was given an RPR of 153. I know Jamie Codd has said he was free in a bumper and that could be an issue at Cheltenham on the big stage. But I think they won’t see which was he’s gone, I really don’t think he lacks an extra gear despite not having to use it yet, and I think he’s the one to beat. KLASSICAL DREAM wasn’t the sexy owners, he was also a bit of a fruitloop to post, but off the front setting a strong gallop he always had the engine, which this lad possesses too. He’s not 100% straightforward because of that buzziness, so I’d keep an eye on him in the prelims and going down to post, but it wouldn’t completely put me off, I just think you’ll get a better price to mitigate the risk

 

JONBON – Full brother to DOUVAN is exciting enough but this lad has presence too. I saw him at Newbury on hurdling debut where he honestly looks like a horse possessed. Pretty impressed with the debut, although it was at a time GOOD RISK AT ALL didn’t really like jumping. Wasn’t as impressed at Ascot as others were and again the same at Haydock. He’s clearly a nice horse but he doesn’t scream out to be a Supreme winner to me. Best RPR of 149 and the last run was 146. I think that’s about right and he’s half a stone behind DYSART and CONSTITUTION HILL. Will get a good pace to aim at, but the fact they were reluctant to use him in those first two runs, whereas the likes of DYSART DYNAMO can’t wait to get racing at a proper clip, makes me think this lad will be in trouble a long way from home

 

JPR ONE – Royally mugged me off in the Betfair Hurdle. I left him on debut because there wasn’t the form to go by, but he looked a nice horse, I then laid him at Taunton when he won then backed him in the Betfair. He’s got no chance in here, but he’s better than he showed the last day

 

KILCRUIT – Never really been a straightforward horse, given that Tony Mullins touted him as a worldie before getting him beat in a bumper. Now I know bumper form isn’t essential to a Supreme, but he was beaten in the Champion Bumper here when he really showed the class in that sphere. He then lost his first two hurdle starts before bolting up at Punchestown. That was an RPR of only 141 though, so while he clearly has loads of ability, he’s just too in and out for me ever trust and arguably he’s terribly priced at just 6/1. Wouldn’t be a huge shock winner of the race, but I’d be disappointed if he came out on top

 

MIGHTY POTTER – Won the Future Champions’ Novice at Christmas so he’s the only other G1 winner in here with CONSTITUTION HILL, and he did a lot wrong that day too so his RPR of 143 might read low, but you’d upgrade that if he jumped better, but he didn’t. Beaten in the Royal Bond prior when arguably an eye catcher. Looks a very smart horse, this is just potentially a very smart renewal. That said, he’s much more straightforward than some in here. I’d be more trusting and exciting about him than both KILCRUIT and JONBON, and while he’s not as good as DYSART DYNAMO I’d also rather have this lads temperament. The one major flaw is that jumping from Christmas, but no doubt he’s schooled plenty since. I just worry that the pace they’ll go here he’ll be forced to make mistakes although I’d say if he was going to fall ever it would have been the last day, and while he’ll stay on, he probably is just going to place, he’s not a likely winner

 

SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE – Beaten in the Dovecote at Kempton and 26 lengths behind CONSTITUION HILL in the Tolworth. Ground could be an excuse that day, but it’s still way too much ground to make up and he should have won the last day but didn’t. Gary Moore doesn’t just run horses at Cheltenham though, so maybe he’s overpriced with question marks around a few towards the front of the market

 

SILENT REVOLUTION – Just the one hurdles spin back in Newbury and form doesn’t read too great now. Would need to have improved bundles from then to have any chance in here and I just can’t make any case for him to have done that.

 

Summary

The market has this spot on I think, well if CONSTITUTION HILL goes off favourite anyway but I do think that JONBON or KILCRUIT would be slightly disappointing winners of the race based on what they’ve actually achieved. Now I know both CONSTITUTION HILL and DYSART DYNAMO have been wide margin winners against probably very little, but each of their runs have been that of a very good look horse. The fact we have to defend JONBON’S efforts and make excuses for KILCRUIT just displays that they have their flaws and probably their limits. DYSART does worry me with little jumps to the right, and the temperament thing, but neither are pronounced enough for me to be that worried, and I think we can wait until the off before we back him to endure any pre race antics allowing him to drift a bit. If he jumps right early I think we can take a loss and lay out. CONSTITUTION HILL though is just such a solid option. He’s got the numbers in the bag, he’s got the temperament and the aura about him but I just struggle to get away from the fact DYSART really does look like he could be a monster. Won’t be a race for me to get too involved in, might see if I can get both horses on side because I think CH might drift a little for now then shorten near the off, whereas I think DYSART will go the other way. MIGHTY POTTER all day is the scummy EW bet an William Hill are offering 5 places, not that you’ll need them, but great concession all the same considering 6^th 7^th 8^th and 9^th in the betting are 25,50,80 & 100/1

 

Selection – DYSART DYNAMO

 

 

ARKLE NOVICES’ CHASE

 

BLUE LORD – Decent hurdler and unbeaten over fences. One of two comeback mounts for Paul Townend and he commented after that debut how well he jumps at home. That’s clear on the track too. I know people will say they went quick at DRF but I think they’ll go even quicker in this race which suits him even more. Maybe idled a bit in the run in where plenty think RIVIERE D’ETEL would have gone back passed him, but she didn’t and she made that howler of a mistake when under pressure. Things won’t be easier for her in this race whereas BLUE LORD seems to take it all in his stride. Substandard ARKLE in terms of class, but this lad is rated 158, last two RPR’s over 160 and he’s only getting better. I like him

 

BRAVE SEASCA – Notable for me that Venetia thinks she can revers the 5 length defeat and 5lb swing with EDWARDSTONE. Personally don’t see it myself but probably having a crack here as a 150’s run would put him in the mix potentially which might not be enough in a Grand Annual

 

COEUR SUBLIME – Best of the field over hurdles, took until his third start to get a win over fences and was 14 behind RIVIERE D’ETEL at Christmas, don’t see him featuring personally, he was so back in that Champion hurdle two years back too and his 3^rd came in a very weak Triumph

 

EDWARDSTONE – Really have struggled to warm to him as a Grade 1 Chaser but he earnt that title at Sandown earlier this season and he’s been impressive since. I still don’t think he’s beaten anything of substance, and faces 7 Irish raiders here so they’re not scared of him either clearly. Don’t fully trust that Kingmaker at Warwick, I’ve touched on Venetia happy to take him on again despite the 5lb worse terms, and Dan Skelton was giving THIRD TIME LUCKI a quick turnaround after an apparent over reach injury. The run at Kempton prior was knocked by SOLO and DO YOUR JOB only just won a class three handicap off 140 last time out. Really don’t think he’s done anything to say he’s a 160’s horse, his OR of 159 for me is a little inflated and I can’t see anymore progression so I’m keen to take him on as the favourite for this race

 

GABYNAKO – Supplemented for this but still going to be a big priced runner. Last run over 2m was in a handicap hurdle off 138 where well beaten, I just think they wanted to swerve Bob and Galopin, but really, I can’t see him finishing top 5 here, whereas they probably won’t even be 5 in the Turners. I also don’t believe his OR of 152 to be true, certainly not back at 2m

 

HAUT EN COULEURS – Fell early in the DRF where only 10/3 behind BLUE LORD and RIVIERE D’ETEL but his jumping was highlighted by Daryl after his chase debut where he seems to take an extra step and wants to make the decision rather than listening to the jockey. That’s not ideal in any Arkle but he ran well here in the Triumph last year and wouldn’t be a shock winner, if not the most likely at this stage. One thing that is for sure, he’s so lightly raced, he’s bound to be improved from the last completed start, and that was a well deserved RPR of 155 given the runner up has bolted up twice since and himself earnt mid 150’s RPR’s so he’s potentially right up there in terms of ability. His hurdle form was twice placed in G1’s and ending with an OR of 146 so I like him

 

RED ROOKIE – Nothing to suggest he’s capable of being in the mix here

 

SAINT SAM – Looked really smart on Chase debut but didn’t really beat anything then I know people will say he went too quick the last day but I just don’t think he’s any better than that bare result. Yes he’s only 5 so can improve, but he’s a bit behind some of these on all known form and I couldn’t have him

 

WAR LORD – Rumours he’s going to be ridden for a place in here, that’s the spirit right! Don’t think he can win

 

MAGIC DAZE – Really don’t get the hype around this mare at all. I get the Mares Novice run looks massive from the front, and running behind CONCERTISTA reads well too but the defeat on chase debut to NOBLE YEATS takes some justifying now even if that horse has been held onto a bit so she’s got her work cut out. She was battered at Punchestown and I just think her best isn’t good enough to beat some of these even running below theirs

 

RIVIERE D’ETEL – No doubt improved for a fence and had the benefit of the 4yo and mares allowance for a while too. Lots of racing under her belt makes me feel for this season she’s going to plateau and regardless of peoples views on the race, she was beaten at Leoprdstown. She’d had two runs before the Fred Winter here last season, she ran OK that day, but I just don’t think she’s up to winning this race but she’s gutsy this season and she’ll try. There will be lots of pace on though and she does jump to the right, she even did over hurdles

 

Summary

I really think the winner comes from one of three in here; EDWARDSTONE, BLUE LORD & HAUT EN COULEURS. The former I think probably deserves to be favourite, but he just looks like he’s there for the taking and I don’t trust his British form is quite as good as it might appear. BLUE LORD can still improve and I’m hoping he does because he probably needs to but I don’t see RIVIERE D’ETEL reversing the form at all round here. HAUT EN COULEURS I think would have been the best hurdler in the field had he run over them again this season, and I think if any 5yo is going to win this Arkle and buck the trends it’s him. I do worry about his jumping though and that’s enough to put me off him with any degree of confidence, but I’ve backed BLUE LORD and I’ve chucked a couple of quid on HAUT too

 

Selection - BLUE LORD

Potential Danger – HAUT EN COULEURS

 

 

ULTIMTA HANDICAP CHASE

 

FRODON – Last handicap win came off this mark of 164 and has notched up two Grade 1’s and a Grade 2 since. 14 spins round this track including 6 wins and 2 places on top of that. Probably doesn’t look the same force anymore, been on the go Chasing since a 4 yo (fell in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at MIGHT BITE) and while he’d be a great winner of the race, I can’t have him

LOSTINTRANSLATION – Can’t really believe I’m writing this to say he’s making his handicap debut off 155, carrying just 11 stone 3 and he’s a 20/1 poke. This horse who two seasons ago was 3^rd in a Gold Cup, only 1 and half lengths off AL BOUM PHOTO. OK, so I understand he’s not the same horse now, but you can stick a link through last season, ignore his last two runs (forgiving aren’t I) and then you have him winning  a Grade 2 on Good ground. Now that is the key to this horse. He loves this track, was second in the JLT, (ok both that an the Gold Cup 3^rd are on the new course) so while it’s a leap of faith with him, and I don’t really like backing anything out of the Ascot Chase race, he’s just too big a price to ignore but I do accept that he could completely be gone now and just flop so maybe keep the faith until Aintree (face palm I know, but he’ll be retired soon so don’t worry)

DOES HE KNOW – 5 times round here and 2 wins a second and a 5^th behind BOB OLINGER so that’s a great start. All those runs on this Old Course too. Won the REYNOLDSTOWN at Ascot which was in bad ground so stamina not an issue, but I can’t believe he can win off a mark of 152. A Handicap winner at the  Cheltenham Festival needs to have a few pounds at least up there sleeves but I can’t see it with him. I’ve no doubt he’ll be there abouts though, so one for the pools I think

BEN DUNDEE – Last seen in the Paddy power Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas when a good second to SCHOOL BOY HOURS. Only 1lb higher than his Irish Mark but not sure he wants this extra trip. Was 5^th in the Plate in 2020 under Davy Russell

NOBLE YEATS – Horse Jamie and I talked about very early in the season when they tried to get him in a 0-140 Handicap Chase in Ireland when he was given a mark of 142. Dropped back to 2m after, again I think to try and get in under 140 but was only dropped 1lb after when well beaten at Christmas when fancied. That day Emmet used Derek O’Connor which wouldn’t be the strongest booking and more the comments suggested it was just as he was teaching him in the race. Massive run in the Towton when beaten 5.5 lengths by AHOY SENOR in receipt of 5lbs, but UK mark of 147 I think underestimates him but is warranted on what he’s shown chasing recently. Go back to his Chase debut in October when he beaten GABYNAKO over 2m 2 and ½ who has now been supplemented for the Arkle and I think you’ll realise the Horse has more under the bonnet than they’ve let on. He’s been sold to the Waley-Cohens with a National Entry and this is a great race to go into that

FLOUEUR – Beautifully commentated that he ‘jumped like a bag of hammer’ when winning is penultimate start when rated 136 in Ireland. Now up to 141, last seen in a Grand National Trial at Punchestown when giving DEATH DUTY 2lbs and was 7l behind. Same terms today, did run well in the Martin Pipe last year when I put him up at a price. He’s definitely more than 3lbs better over fences, but those jumps have got to improve and I don’t think he’ll get away with it here. Gainford always a good booking, but he was the Jockey when he won, and jumped like those hammers albeit that was really his only mistake and he still one the race

FOXY JACKS – Stamina to prove really and career high mark now. Jumps to the right a bit too

DOCTOR DUFFY – Yet to prove he’s worthy of his Chase mark after a big hike in 2020 following a win off 135 but stays all day and wasn’t really out of it the last day when unseating at 50/1 under today’s jockey. Interesting at least at a bigger price especially as they’ve been hurdling with him this season until that last run

TEA CLIPPER – First time Cheek Pieces and fresh from a Wind Op this lad had a nice start to the season at Chepstow but has been underwhelming since. Stepped up to 3m at Aintree last season over hurdles with Rachel Blackmore on  board when 3^rd to a well backed Stuart Edmonds horse and I do think the trip is key to him. Tom Lacey has been having some big winners this season, Welsh Champion Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle to name two, so while it’s brave to suggest he’s been plotted for this, he ran well in behind HEAVEN HELP US in the Coral Cup last year, and really should be better than his current mark of 145. Sometimes doesn’t travel so well in his races which is the concern here, but Aintree after could be interesting as well

DEATH DUTY – 11yo who never really fulfilled his promise and is a well known mudlark. Dropped 1lb from his Irish Mark but twice ran here and underwhelmed. Both those runs were on the new course, but hard to think he’s got much up his sleeve and opposable at the price I think

FANTASTIKAS – 144 rated now and a last time out winner. Third in the Dipper behind L’Homme Presse on new years day here but he’s another I just don’t believe is hiding lots more. Similar to DOES HE KNOW, using THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE who is now rated 152, this lad was well beaten by him at Doncaster in receipt of 3lbs, plus got 8lbs over hurdles from him and still couldn’t win. Only once outside the first three, I know he’s popular but he’s not for me

VINTAGE CLOUDS – Last years winner who is the trend pick. 1lb Higher than 12 months ago, had a steady enough prep run last month after a Wind Op, but he is 12 now and this looks like a race where loads have cases to be made for them

RAPPER – Won the last twice and up 9lbs for those wins. Hasn’t really ever beaten anything of note and was miles back in the Pertemps off a 9lb lower mark. Fences may have improved him, but not enough for me to be interested here

DISCORDANTLY – Made a case for this horse last year in the race when he didn’t run bad in 6^th but disappointed me as I thought he’d go close. Spiralled off the boil since but I’m forgiving then he wont just over a week ago in first time cheekpieces. Essentially gets in here off his Irish mark as carries a 5lb penalty but it’s a long time since he chucked in decent back to back efforts but I just couldn’t completely rule him out now only 1lb higher than last year and still only 8

GRUMPY CHARLEY – Easily won a Class 3 handicap chase off 137 and now 4lbs higher. Hard to think that’s a lenient mark in this company and stamina not assured

KILTEALY BRIGGS – I liked this horse and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him but I once thought he wanted a trip however now I don’t think he really does. This mark is no gimme in this company, and while the owners sponsor the race and will fancy their chances, I just don’t think he wants this test. That said, he underwhelmed in the Plate last season and it’s probably that this just isn’t his course either

FULL BACK – Another horse I like, I backed him here in January when he was ridden like the world had been told to back him. Not sure he can do the same here off a 6lb higher mark and was well beaten in the Hennessy. Last run was sandwiched between a 159 and a 150 rated horse not getting much weight so that’s the stand out reason you could fancy him. Not ruled out, but just don’t think he’s tons up his sleeve like that form might suggest

CORACH RAMBLER – I love this horse. He’s my idea of the winner for this race a while out and I’m so pleased he’s going to run. The Reynoldstown was a long was out when he fell, but sent off favourite that day I think he’d have won. DOES HE KNOW gave him 3lb that day and now he gets 12lb from him. Won here in December when lots went wrong. Quirky horse, tried to pull himself up at Aintree early this season, but I do think he has more to come, the one concern is how he jumps and travels isn’t ideal for a big field race like this

RUN TO MILAN – Jumping has cost this horse more wins, but in theory he’s on an OK mark of 138. That bad jumping is a concern in here, he is a 10yo despite being lightly raced and has never been round here. Won’t get things to himself up front, but it can get into a rhythm he’s probably overpriced

OUR POWER – 2lbs out the handicap but that’s doable and was ridden quietly enough at Kempton the last day to suggest they had one eye on this race. Pulled up in last years Coral Cup but has since moved yards and seems to be back in better form

ONE MORE FLEURIE – 3lbs out the handicap and has struggled since going up from 128 to 138 which he effectively runs off here again

BELARGUS – 3lbs out the handicap and fell on his last chase start. Has a confidence booster at Haydock over hurdles since but untested at this trip and flat bred

OSCAR ELITE – Thought he’d be the Kim Muir winner, but they took him out of that, he’s 4lb out the handicap here which won’t help. Harry Codben is 0 from 1 on him but they’ve raced this season plenty at the track so probably had one eye on the festival but he’s not the stable first string even though I think he’s a nice horse

GERICAULT ROQUE – 5lbs out the handicap which makes this very hard to my eye but connections have won this before with UN TEMPS POUR TOUT and considering he’s only 6, he’s a rarity in this race. Mark off 133 is doable, the 5lbs out the handicap probably negates the extra he has in hand, or at least most of it so I’m sure they’ll try, but he’s a long future ahead so I think they’ll mind him

 

Summary

Wide open competitive handicap so really your guess is as good, if not better than mine here. I can genuinely see plenty running well as you’ll have taken from my runner comments. The more obvious ones to me would be NOBLE YEATS & CORACH RAMBLER with FLOUEUR, LOSTINTRANSLATION & DISCORDANTLY all possible party poopers to that duo. DOCTOR DUFFY at a huge price could outrun those odds. Personally I’ll play a few in here, in block doubles with handicaps later in the week and I’ll have plenty of cover in the place and win pools on this one too

 

Selection - CORACH RAMBLER

Lively Outsider  - DOCTOR DUFFY

 

CHAMPION HURDLE

 

ADAGIO – 5yo sporting a first time tongue tie here. Good run in the Greatwood off 147 and wasn’t disgraced on his comeback run art Wincanton which should put him spot on for this. No disguise really that this is a much harder task, he was second best in the G1 Juveniles in the spring over here too, so while he may have progressed, he’s not won on any of his last 4 starts, the last two of those a handicap and a Grade 2. The reality is he’s probably not going to be up to this just yet, but he’s rarely far away and yet to be outside the first 2 so EW players or place only bettors will likely want to keep him on side given he’s around a 20/1 poke

APPRECIATE IT – Really was a monster performance in the Supreme here last year regardless of how deep the race might have been. He’s looked a staying chaser from his bumper days, but he’s simply a horse with a massive engine, but clearly has his frailties too. He would have been over fences this season had he not met with a setback, likely an ARKLE horse, but let’s not forget BUVEUR D’AIR did abort chasing to win this race so it’s doable. The one thing that’s a much harder historical trend to bust is coming here to win a Champion Hurdle on your first start in Open company. Yes Willie did it with PENHILL in the Stayers, and maybe bar HONEYSUCKLE this isn’t a vintage Champion Hurdle, but I do think we have a number of horses in here who could run to a mark in the 160’s. He’s giving the mare 7lbs like they all are but he’s the one who feels like he could topple her. Most of that feel though comes from the unknown, because plenty in this field have shown this season they can’t touch her. 10 runners means you might get some 4 places offers out there, he’s a likely scummy EW bet to nothing, but I do fear that approach, simply because some of the horses he had behind don’t really look that good this season. I don’t think I can sway anyone’s opinion one way or the other on this lad and I wouldn’t want to. Could he win, MAYBE, do I think he’ll win, NO

GLORY AND FORTUNE – Lots to find on official figures despite the Betfair Hurdle win and G1 second in the Christmas Hurdle being really good runs. 9.5 lengths behind ADAGIO in the Greatwood and now 5lbs worse off, enough said

NOT SO SLEEPY – Still shocked he dead heated that Fighting Fifth earlier this season. Well beaten after, was 13l behind HONEYSUCKLE in this last year and I just can’t have him

SAINT ROI – Good winner of the County in 2020 and was hyped as the one to beat HONEY last year but he never made it here after some lacklustre efforts in open company. Two spins this season suggest he’s still a way off Grade 1 level and I think he’ll be chasing next term

TEAHUPOO – Very lightly raced 5yo, come in here off the right kind of approach I think, having running in two G3’s and one G2 since stepping outside Juvenile Company. Similar approach to ESPOIR D’ALLEN and I thought he was very impressive at Gowran in the Red Mills. Still a fact that he’s not really beaten much, and he was beaten by JEFF KIDDER at Fairyhouse last season so likely he’s not up to this yet, probably wants further soon too, but I think he’ll run well and can hit that OR of 162 again this season

TOMMY’S OSCAR – Great story for connections but he can’t win a Champion Hurdle. Appreciate how dismissive that is, but he beat GLOBAL CITIZEN by 5 lengths at Haydock, a 136 rated horse who was 15 lengths behind GOSHEN and ADAGIO in receipt of weight

ZANAHIYR – I think he should have won the Triumph last year, his race was marked early on, but then class should prevail shouldn’t it. He was also behind JEFF KIDDER after like TEAHUPOO. Nice start this season in a Grade 2 then again put up a couple of nice runs behind SHARJAH so the dream I think was still alive. 6.5 lengths behind HONEYSUCKLE at the DRF but it could have been more. What I will say is, he clattered the first, well he made a hash of it anyway then his jumping lacked fluency after. Now he’s always jumped pretty well before that so it was very unlike him and I’m pleased they’ve chucked some Cheek-Pieces on him. What I was impressed with that day, was how he stayed on and ECHOES IN RAIN didn’t go by him. Now I’m sure some will argue she didn’t go by, as opposed to he held her off, but let’s just trust they both were trying, I think to make the mistakes he did and to see his race out like that was fairly impressive. I’m shocked he’s as big as 20/1 really, and he’s 33/1 on the machine

EPATANTE – 9.5 lengths behind HONEYSUCKLE last season then 12.5 behind at Punchestown. She’s had back surgery and she’s 2 from 2 this season (well 1 and a half as she dead heated in the Fighting Fifth) but I don’t really think that form is any good in the context of a Champion Hurdle. Only once outside the first 3, but I do think this years race is better than the last two she’s run in despite there being no SHARJAH so she’s not for me at all

HONEYSUCKLE – I’m definitely in the camp of ‘I don’t think she’s unbeatable’ but she really does look as good as ever this season, arguably better than ever but I do just wish she’d come up against SHARJAH this season as I think he’s the real barometer as opposed to the likes of RONALD PUMP. Her RPR in the Irish Champion Hurdle was 4 spots lower than last year, although she was much better in the Hatton’s Grace. Clearly with the 7lb allowance she’s a deserving favourite, but I do think this is nearing the beginning of the end for her. She’s likely going to win this, I wouldn’t put anyone off her, I couldn’t could I, and tbh the 4/6 about her isn’t terrible either

 

Summary

HONEYSUCKLE wins this bar incident or an excuse and as final line on her states, I don’t think the 4/6 about her is a bad price really (she had been as short as 1/2). APPRECIATE IT & ZANAHIYR are the only two I could see winning this is she falters, ones a 4/1 poke and ones a 20/1 poke (33/1 on the machine) so I’ll be playing the latter in the place market, and given the final field of 10 we might even get some 4 places about it. ADAGIO will more behind than in front, TEAHUPOO too but outside that I can’t have the remainder at all

Selection - HONEYSUCKLE

Lively Outsider - ZANAHIYR

 

MARES HURDLE

 

BURNING VICTORY – She’s a mare I mentioned in one of the first Antepost Insight videos over on YouTube this season when she was a 33/1 poke but regardless of that plug, he’s got a chance. She’s not straight forward but they do think a lot of her and she’s capable

ECHOES IN RAIN – Glad they’ve come here given she’s joint top rated and her mark isn’t exactly workable in a handicap round here. She is hard to settle, I appreciate people say she won’t stay but I don’t think there’s enough to doubt her ability to stay other than her temperament. She ran a big race in the Irish Champion Hurdle where I think she travelled quite nicely. I’d love if Patrick let her go in this but I appreciate she’s hard to trust

HEAVEN HELP US – Won the Coral Cup last year off 138 by 9 lengths. That line of form alone gives her a chance but this is competitive and I’m not sure she’d quite the same mare this time round. Danny Mullins is 1 from 12 but the win came here in a Maiden hurdle on the old course

INDEFATIGABLE – Pleased they’ve come here, she’s a mare I’ve liked for a long time. She was 4^th in this last year on soft ground which does suit but I think they’ll go quicker this year than last and that will suit her. Gave MARTELLO SKY 5lbs and only went down by a nk yet she’s twice the price and won the Martin Pipe here back in 2020 off an OR of 145 and I think she’s better now

MARIE’S ROCK – Not sure she’s suited by this track, looks a bit of flat track type. Middle trip does suit but a bit to find for me

MARTELLO SKY – Smashed in the betting at Aintree back in November when pretty poor really although I’d argue she rant to form. Same since is true too and I just don’t think she’s up to this

MRS MILNER – Pertemps winner last year off 134 and second in a Listed hurdle here on the old course too but again over 3m. Not sure they is enough of a test for her personally but the race could be run to suit stayers

NADA TO PRADA – Not good enough

QUEENS BROOK – The ‘eye-catcher’ behind BURNING VICTORY the last day but I’m not sure I get no board with horses whose best runs come in defeat. CIEL DE NIEGE has made her penultimate win look good since chasing though and Gordon is bullish so make of that what you will

STORMY IRELAND – Wouldn’t have won the Relkeel here on New Years Day but no shame if she had been beaten. Was used in the HONEYSUCKLE and BENIE race two years ago and was second the year before when BENIE tipped up Paul TOWNEND rides but I’m just not sure she can do it

TELMESOMETHINGGIRL – Impressive last year in the Mares Novice and progressive this season with the race in mind. One of only a few who should be improving past her current mark so you can see why she’s favourite but there’s an element of trust being taken in that

WESTERN VICTORY – Proven not good enough

 

Summary

Really feels like a race where you could run it a few times and get a few different results. I’d say TELMESOMETHINGGIRL deserves to be favourite, I can half see QUEENS BROOK appeal and of course Paul choosing STORMY is a logical choice. I do think BURNING VICTORY will run a big race, but I’m hoping ECHOES IN RAIN back against her own will just show her class. We’ve seen in the past how many mares seem to run better in their own company and this will be the first time she’s done so for Willie Mullins. I have issue with a few in the middle order but I think INDEFATIGABLE is overpriced so she’s my lively outsider

 

Selection – ECHOES IN RAIN

Lively Outsider – INDEFATIGABLE

 

FRED WINTER

 

PETIT TONNERRE – One run for Jonjo O’Neill after three runs in France (two over hurdles) and only 14lbs higher than his French RPR on his last start where I’ve mentioned that 18 is about ok. Won with plenty in hand, up 3lbs and probably more to come

THE TIDE TURNS – Ex flat all weather runner who has had three spins over hurdles for Gordon Elliott. Won on debut but 9lbs worse off with the runner up. Tried in Graded races since, including an Open Grade 3 the last day. Got to around 8 lengths of VAUBAN at the DRF which in theory means he’s probably a few pounds up his sleeve. First time tongue tie here to unlock a bit more improvement

BRAZIL – Ex flat peaked at 90 now had 4 runs for Padraig Roche and JP. Bolted up the last day no rated 133, previously was 7.25 lengths behind THE TIDE TURNS and yet runs off level weights

DOCTOR CHURCHILL – 70 rated flat horse, 5 spins for Gordon since including when beating CHAMPION GREEN by 2.5 lengths getting 3lbs. Worse off here now and beaten favourite in a handicap since so probably held

EBASARI – Another ex flat horse running for Gordon Elliott here. Three spins, including when beating ADAMANTLY CHOSEN on hurdle bow in receipt of 13lbs but that horse is now rated 142. This lads mark of 131 looks about right and you need a bit in a race like this

BRITZKA – Fresh here after a wind op and another ex flat Gordon runner who won a maiden hurdle on debut. Gave a stone a beating to that horse who is rated 116 so literal line there make this 130 look ok. Twice was ‘poor’ after but maybe by design but then the tongue tie went on and the wind op may suggest not all is well

BELL EX ONE – Having his debut for Paul Nicholls and while not impressive in winning two of his three hurdle races he beat SEA SESSION giving him 13lbs but comes here only giving him 5

GAELIC WARRIOR – Head over and look at my blog on this horse if you want to know why, but he’s 18lbs well in to my book so he just wins - Cheltmental: GAELIC WARRIOR - HACK UP OR PULL UP?

WHITE PEPPER – 128 rated filly who was behind SEA SESSIONS so work cut out to reverse that on these terms and I’m not sure she’s got much more in the locker after 6 hurdle spins

HMS SEAHORSE – 86 rated on the flat and a rare improving hurdler. Behind PIED PIPER on debut then behind THE TIDE TURNS before winning at odds on the last day. 9lb swing with THE TIDE TURNS for a 2.75 length defeat, so you can see why he’s popular, but could that knock the depth the THE TIDE TURNS rather than boost this lad?

PRAIRIE DANCER – Yet to win over hurdles and form ties with WHITE PEPPER so not sure he’s got in easy here

FEIGH – 5 runs over hurdles for Willie Mullins and this filly was thought highly enough to run in a Grade 3 back in November although another with those form ties with WHITE PEPPER and SEA SESSIONS and I think they’re all exposed now

IBERIQUE DU SEUIL – Chuck this one in with the WHITE PEPPER bunch form. Doesn’t scream out they’re well treated

SAINT SEGAL – Three runs for Jane Williams including once behind PORTICELLO in the G1 Finale. His mark of 126 could be alright and the race he’s won since didn’t really teach us anything. Ordinarily he’s interesting

CHAMPION GREEN – 90 Rated flat horse who might look like he’s been ridden for a mark in his 4 hurdles runs, but he might just be a traveller. Hood and tongue tie the last day to win but beat nothing. Rachel Blackmore an interesting booking though if not the most obvious JP pairing

SEA SESSIONS – already had more mentions that most but her form looks exposed enough to say her mark is just fair

MILLDAM – 132 would be the French mark I’d expect so he’s 7lbs well in on that but again read my article of GAELIC WARRIOR and you’ll see the gulf between these two

DOCTOR BROWN BEAR – First run for Martin Brassil who had 5 runs with no wins for Brendan Duke before. At the very least he’s interesting but FIEGH battered him on his hurdle debut getting 7lbs and they’re off levels now so not for me and finishes tamely in his races

TOO FRIENDLY  - Dan Skelton runner who was 88 on the flat and won his first two starts over hurdles including a class 2. Beaten in a Grade 2 after by KNIGHT SALUTE which isn’t bad form in the scheme of this race and capable of a good run from this mark. Just maybe not the potential class of some in here but has the wind op and a similar type to KING D’ARGENT how ran a good 4^th for the yard in 2019

FOREVER WILLIAM – 3 spins over hurdles but well held the last twice albeit but two Triumph chances. Wears a first time visor but that needs to bring about some improvement and more

SWINGING LONDON – Two pounds worse off now with IBERIQUE DU SEUIL but won since on stable debut beating a 109 horse in receipt of 12 lbs

SKYCUTTER – Second to PORTICELLO at Haydock but well behind and was 30 back in the Finale. Win his maiden hurdle but beat a now 107 rated horse so not for me

 

Summary

I’ve made myself clear on GAELIC WARRIOR, he’s thrown in and I’ve done the work on that myself, so the fact connections are just as bullish is a bonus. Ordinarily THE TIDE TURNS, PETIT TONNERRE, SAINT SEGAL & TOO FRIENDLY would interest me but the first is very well found in the market and I really don’t think they can beat GAELIC WARRIOR

Selection – GAELIC WARRIOR

Lively Outsider – TOO FRIENDLY

 

NH CHASE

 

BEATTHEBULLET – Rank outsider rated just 126 so on level terms he’s over 2 stone away from what’s required. Stays, but not at this level

 

BRAESIDE – Fits the bill for the type of horse who will be suited to this race. Second season novice and picked up a decent enough race in the Cork National over 3m4f so while he’s been a bit short of the class required in the last few runs on first appearance, and Jamie Codd is riding for Gigginstown, I don’t think he’s without a chance. The run the last day in the Ten Up Novices chase he wasn’t really at the races. That’s a concern and he did pull up on his penultimate start but prior he ran a decent race following that Cork National win, when probably an unlucky 4^th of 28 after suffering hampering at the very first flight. Gave SCHOOL BOY HOURS 10lbs that day who’s not unfancied in the Kim Muir off 142 later this week, so he’s worthy of his mark of 148 right now despite those last two efforts and I think he’s a player for sure

ONTHEROPES – Another who looked the type for this race being a novice from another season, in fact started chasing in 2019 and won first race over fences in the Munster National back in October. Only ever had the one spin over hurdles so always about the larger obstacles with him but I’m less enthused to say he’s worthy of his OR of 152, although again, he’s not going to be the biggest shock if he were to run well with the tongue-tie now applied alongside the Cheekpieces

PATS FANCY – Not so much the obvious profile for the race, a much improved horse for a fence and there are bits of form from this season that in context can read quite well. For me, he beat a non stayer in IMPERIAL ALCAZAR at Chepstow, and while he was facing BRAVEMANGAME the last day at Newbury, I wasn’t that impressed with the winner so I’d also crab this horse a little. He was miles behind the good 3 mile hurdlers last season (56 in the Albert Bartlett and 80 behind AHOY SENOR at Aintree). This stamina trip might help bridge the class gap, but I’m just not sold on him, although we’ve said before, it’s not always the classy horse that wins this and this has been the plan for a while from the yard

RUN WILD FRED – 5 seconds from his 10 chase starts, but as mentioned with a couple already in here, he fitted the profile of the type for this race, hailing from Elliott, being a dour stayer and a second season novice. Run in the Irish National last season was as good a piece of form as anything in here, if not better, solid run in behind CAPE GENTLEMAN on seasonal debut over a trip too short, emphatic win after in a Handicap off 145 and although he was a beaten favourite the last day in a Grade 1, it was no shame in defeat having FURY ROAD in front who has always threatened to be a top class 3 miler, plus both VANILLIER & ONTHEROPES were well behind. Jamie Codd rides for Gigginstown in this race for the second time in the last 10 years, I think that’s a huge positive and vote of confidence, especially as Gordon will want winners this year more than ever. Deserves to be favourite I think and while the comment has already been said by me that it’s not always the classiest horse to win this race, he is the highest rated at this point, although someone like STATTLER might end up a better horse in the future

STATTLER – Beaten favourite here in the Albert Bartlett last year, and a fairly plodder like finish that day so it was a little surprising how strong he was in the finish on Chasing debut over 2m5f when a ready winner. The runner up did little for the form but the third doesn’t make it look bad. He won again next time out with VANILLIER in behind but was pressed by FAROUK D’ALENE who will be RSA bound I think, and that’s possibly where I think this lad should have been racing. Ronnie Bartlett (owner) likes this race but I think his race performances to date and his breeding suggest this trip is a big risk, and I’m not sure it’s really what he wants. We’ve got National winners in here and horses who relish the distance but he’s still unproven to me so he looks short enough but I do think he’s probably the best 3 miler in here. He is unexposed though, jumps well in the main, especially for a horse who has only two runs over fences under his belt so there’s reasons to believe he can be competitive at least

VANILLIER – Not very inspiring in his last couple of runs, but I will say that the last day he was conceding weight to the field so he really wasn’t likely to be involved at the business end. Penultimate start was behind RUN WILD FRED when FURY ROAD won and he just wasn’t really put into the race. First start over fences came at a trip too short and duly dotted up the time after where SIXSHOOTER lost his life. Now I’m a big fan of that horse, I’d backed him that day, but I do think VANILLIER was still going to win. Jumping isn’t as bad as people are making out. Gavin Cromwell has always said this is the race for him and while Albert Bartlett winners get a bad press, and don’t always progress, I like the race and he’s definitely got a chance. Should he be the price he is based on form alone, absolutely not. But maybe there’s a message inside that, because despite people knocking him, he’s clearly got his supporters otherwise he’d be drifting to near double figures, which is where he probably should be priced on what he’s done this season

 

Summary

Really does look a decent and competitive race, it’s interesting too because no matter how many times you watch replays, or try and imagine how the race will pan out, there is so much unknown here in terms of what some of these horses are truly capable of, and this distance is a question mark for a few too. RUN WILD FRED is the most solid option on form I think, he’s also the highest rated, he’s trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Jamie Codd. I personally think he should be a sub 2/1 favourite so there’s arguably still some juice in his price. STATTLER for me is the best 3 miler, but this isn’t 3 miles and I’m really not convinced he wants this trip so for that reason he’s a bit short for me. Although who am I to question Willie and Patrick in the ‘not quite 4 miler’.

VANILLIER is popular more for the ‘plot’ aspect than what he’s done on the course. I don’t mind his jumping, I think he’ll like the test but he’s too short really to be punting, although as mentioned, that’s probably a strong positive in that plenty must like him to keep the price down.

BRAESIDE, PATS FANCY & ONTHEROPES fall into the second bucket I think, where they wouldn’t surprise you if they won, but they’re probably susceptible to the better horses. ONTHEROPES OR puts him in the top 3 horses, but I’m just not sure he warrants that mark, although the trip will suit and maybe the tongue-tie is what’s been needed since the Munster National win but it does feel a bit like it’s just trial and error now to excuse his recent form

 

Selection – RUN WILD FRED